olivLaw · European equity research
Hepsor AS HPR1T.TL
Estonia · Nasdaq Tallinn · ISIN EE3100082306 · Vertical: Listed companies from Estonia
Hepsor AS is a real estate developer active in Estonia and Latvia, building and selling residential apartments and leasing commercial space. Sales revenue fell to 12.9 million euros in 2022, while loan obligations rose as new projects launched, making the financing and sales pace the key items to follow.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Hepsor AS (HPR1T.TL) stock was 4.25 EUR (+1.19% on the day), with market capitalisation 16.5 m EUR, P/E 11.8 on diluted EPS of 0.36 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.18%, beta 0.13, 52-week range 4.20–6.54 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 38.2
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 4.18 – 4.66
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.15 · band width 10.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 4.62 / 5.58
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.10 / -0.09
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −5.1% | +0.4% | −5.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | −18.9% | −3.3% | −15.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | −31.0% | +4.0% | −35.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | −33.4% | +8.1% | −41.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | −32.1% | +10.7% | −42.8 pp | −5.8% |
| 3 years | −44.2% | +50.1% | −94.3 pp | −7.9% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +43.6% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 1-quarter history (min 25.3, median 25.3, max 25.3; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 15.0 m | 12.9 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −14.0% |
| Net income | -22.0 k | 1.4 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.01 | 0.36 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -0.1% | 10.8% |
| Free cash flow | -9.4 m | -28.7 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2022 · 31 Dec 2022
- Cash
- 3.8 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 48.6 m EUR
- Net debt
- 44.8 m EUR
- Equity
- 20.3 m EUR
- Total assets
- 78.4 m EUR
- Debt / equity
- 2.39x
- Current ratio
- 2.54x
- ROE
- 7.1%
- ROA
- 2.1%
- FCF margin
- -223.1%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 15.0 m | 12.9 m | esef· 05 Sept 2023verified |
| Cost of revenue | 11.9 m | 11.1 m | esef· 05 Sept 2023verified |
| Gross profit | 3.1 m | 1.8 m | esef· 05 Sept 2023verified |
| Operating income | 1.9 m | 235.0 k | esef· 05 Sept 2023verified |
| Interest expense | 512.0 k | 787.0 k | esef· 05 Sept 2023verified |
| Pre-tax income | 1.7 m | 1.3 m | esef· 05 Sept 2023verified |
| Net income | -22.0 k | 1.4 m | esef· 05 Sept 2023verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.01 | 0.36 | esef· 05 Sept 2023verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 0.01 | esef· 05 Sept 2023derived |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 10.9 m | 3.8 m | esef· 05 Sept 2023verified |
| Receivables | 652.0 k | 1.7 m | esef· 05 Sept 2023verified |
| Inventories | 37.2 m | 69.8 m | esef· 05 Sept 2023verified |
| Current assets | 51.2 m | 75.2 m | esef· 05 Sept 2023verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 229.0 k | 232.0 k | esef· 05 Sept 2023verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 0 | 7.0 k | esef· 05 Sept 2023verified |
| Total assets | 55.3 m | 78.4 m | esef· 05 Sept 2023verified |
| Short-term debt | 5.5 m | 22.6 m | esef· 05 Sept 2023verified |
| Long-term debt | 22.9 m | 26.0 m | esef· 05 Sept 2023verified |
| Current liabilities | 12.3 m | 29.7 m | esef· 05 Sept 2023verified |
| Total liabilities | 36.3 m | 58.0 m | esef· 05 Sept 2023verified |
| Equity | 19.0 m | 20.3 m | esef· 05 Sept 2023verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | 3.9 m | esef· 05 Sept 2023derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -9.4 m | -28.6 m | esef· 05 Sept 2023verified |
| Capex | 0 | 100.0 k | esef· 05 Sept 2023verified |
| Free cash flow | -9.4 m ≈ | -28.7 m ≈ | esef· 05 Sept 2023derived |
| Investing cash flow | -4.3 m | 2.4 m | esef· 05 Sept 2023verified |
| Financing cash flow | 20.4 m | 18.8 m | esef· 05 Sept 2023verified |
| Dividends paid | 252.0 k | 29.0 k | esef· 05 Sept 2023verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 16.5 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
58% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 2.06 – 6.09 EUR.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E2.06 – 6.09 (Mid 4.20)6 companies used · median multiple 11.7x · quartiles 5.7x – 16.9xNCN1T.TL, PRF1T.TL, SFG1T.TL, TAL1T.TL, TSM1T.TL, TVE1T.TL
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate0.10 – 0.14 (Mid 0.12)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 0.4% | 13 (vs peers) | 18% |
| Net margin · Quality | 10.8% | 56 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -2,056.7% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 0.3x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.5x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 11.8x | 57 (vs peers) | 18% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -174.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.2% | 3 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality21/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial3/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation32/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Hepsor AS (HPR1T.TL). Latest full fiscal year: 2022; data up to 2022-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 12.9 m EUR in 2022; YoY growth -14.0%; net margin 10.8%; ROE 7.2%.
The estimated value range is 2.06–6.09 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 4.20 EUR, the price of 4.25 EUR leaves a potential of -1.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -1.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 2.5x
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 0.4%
- FCF conversion: -2,056.7%
- Interest coverage: 0.3x
- FCF yield: -174.2%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.2%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Estonia · same country · compared with 9 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAL1T.TLAktsiaselts Tallink Grupp | 482.6 m | 34.6 | 2.0% | 1.8% | +61.7% | +15% / −3% |
| TSM1T.TLaktsiaselts TALLINNA SADAM | 327.2 m | 17.1 | 5.1% | 16.0% | +2.5% | −1% / +7% |
| TVE1T.TLAktsiaselts Tallinna Vesi | 217.4 m | 16.4 | 11.2% | 20.6% | +5.3% | +2% / +0% |
| LVN1T.TLLiven AS | 38.2 m | 70.0 | 3.1% | 2.0% | −23.8% | unavailable / unavailable |
| SFG1T.TLAktsiaselts Silvano Fashion Group | 37.2 m | 3.8 | 20.1% | 16.9% | +1.6% | −7% / −6% |
| NCN1T.TLNordecon AS | 17.1 m | 7.0 | 7.7% | 0.8% | +26.5% | −12% / −10% |
| HPR1T.TLHepsor AS | 16.5 m | 11.8 | 7.2% | 10.8% | −14.0% | −30% / −41% |
| PRF1T.TLAS PRFoods | 2.1 m | 5.3 | 3.8% | 1.5% | −53.5% | −9% / −74% |
| PKG1T.TLAS Pro Kapital Grupp | — | — | 106.4% | 69.0% | +216.0% | −47% / −46% |
| TKM1T.TLTallinna Kaubamaja Grupp AS | — | — | 8.8% | 2.6% | +3.4% | −4% / −10% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for HPR1T.TL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 2.27 Total return -46% · Per year -46% | 4.04 Total return -5% · Per year -5% | 6.11 Total return 44% · Per year 44% |
| 3 years | 1.80 Total return -57% · Per year -25% | 3.64 Total return -14% · Per year -5% | 6.11 Total return 44% · Per year 13% |
| 5 years | 1.43 Total return -66% · Per year -19% | 3.29 Total return -22% · Per year -5% | 6.11 Total return 45% · Per year 8% |
- Exit P/E± 0.91
- Net margin± 0.64
- Annual revenue growth± 0.58
- Annual dilution± 0.05
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Hepsor AS is a real estate developer active in Estonia and Latvia, building and selling residential apartments and leasing commercial space. Sales revenue fell to 12.9 million euros in 2022 1, while loan obligations rose as new projects launched, making the financing and sales pace the key items to follow.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group has a diversified project portfolio across two countries and some buildings already fully leased, providing recurring rental income.
- Experience in acquiring and transforming land lets the group launch new projects, supported by established partnerships with construction contractors.
- Access to the public market through the initial public offering in 2021 strengthened the equity base.
Weaknesses
- Operating margin fell considerably in 2022, and operating profit was close to zero.
- Assets are concentrated in inventories and liquidity is limited, making the group sensitive to delays in sales.
- Revenue is volatile from year to year because it depends on the timing of project completion and sales.
Opportunities
- Developing new projects in Tallinn and Riga could raise sales volumes if demand remains sustainable.
- Expansion into Canada, where operations were expected to begin in 2023, could open new markets over the longer term.
- Higher rental income from already built commercial space could stabilise cash flows.
Threats
- Rising interest rates or tighter lending could slow the financing of new projects.
- If demand for apartments falls, sales could be delayed and could affect loan repayment.
- High construction costs could reduce margins on projects under way.
Risks
- High indebtednesshigh
Loans represent a large share of total assets, and repayment depends on completing and selling projects.
- Concentration in inventoryhigh
Most assets are land and projects in progress, which may be hard to monetise quickly if the market shifts.
- Revenue volatilitymedium
Revenue depends on the timing of project deliveries, which makes annual results hard to forecast.
- Construction costsmedium
Rising material and labour costs could reduce margins on new projects.
- Geographic concentrationlow
Operating in two countries with the euro limits currency exposure, but dependence on the Estonian and Latvian markets remains significant.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand for new apartments stays strong in Tallinn and Riga, sales of projects under way could recover to better levels.
- Projects acquired in 2022 could generate additional revenue in the coming years if execution follows plan.
- Office space already fully leased could provide a stable rental income that offsets sales volatility.
What would break the thesis
- If operating profit stays close to zero, the group could struggle to fund growth from its own resources.
- High indebtedness could limit financial flexibility, especially if sales are delayed.
- If construction costs keep rising, margins on new projects could be lower than in the past.
What to watch
- Sales pace of apartments in projects under construction2023
- Trend in gross margin and operating profitQ1 2023
- Level of loan obligations relative to total assetsnext 10-K
- Start of Canadian operations and first land investments2024
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Hepsor AS is a real estate group headquartered in Estonia that develops residential and commercial projects in Tallinn, Riga and Mārupe. The group acquires land and buildings, turns them into development projects, sells apartments under real right contracts and keeps some assets for rent. Activity is organised in separate project companies (SPVs), and at 31 December 2022 the group comprised the parent, 38 subsidiaries and 2 associated companies 1. A development cycle lasts about 36 months, so results fluctuate from year to year 1.
The shares were listed after an initial public offering in November 2021, when the group raised 10 million euros 1. The proceeds supported the expansion of the project portfolio, and in 2022 the group began setting up a Canadian subsidiary, with operations at its Montreal headquarters most likely launching between March and April 2023 1.
Segments
Residential development
The main segment is the development of apartments for sale in Estonia and Latvia. At the end of 2022, 677 apartments were included in residential projects under construction or on sale, of which 56% were sold 1. Sales are made under real right contracts, and the gross margin on development projects sold in 2022 was 22.0% 1.
Market context
The group's activity is concentrated on residential markets in Tallinn and Riga, where demand for new apartments and land supply are shaped by urban growth and local building policies. Revenue from Latvia rose from 11% to 47% of the total in 2022 1, a significant shift from one market to the other. Property and construction are sensitive to financing costs and price levels, factors not detailed in the annual report.
Direct competition comes from other local residential developers and from investors buying land and buildings in central areas. Each project sits on a specific plot, and entry into the market depends on land availability and planning permits.
Trends
- Rising financing costsheadwind
Loan obligations rose with the launch of new projects, and the group relies on bank credit for construction. If interest rates stay high, financing costs could reduce the profitability of new projects.
- Demand for apartments in urban areastailwind
Urban development in Tallinn and Riga supports demand for new apartments, which could help sales of projects under construction.
- Expansion in Latviamixed
Latvia's share of revenue rose considerably in 2022, diversifying the business but potentially exposing the group to risks specific to that market.
- Construction costs and labourheadwind
Rising construction and wage costs weighed on operating margin in 2022, according to the annual report, and the pressure could continue if these costs stay high.
Competitive position
Hepsor competes with other real estate developers in Estonia and Latvia that target the same residential and commercial segments. Differentiation rests on land access, financing capacity and the reputation of completed projects, aspects the annual report does not quantify.
In local markets competitors include both companies of comparable size and larger developers with access to cheaper capital. The group positions itself through mid-sized projects and partnerships with construction contractors.
- Local residential developers in Tallinn
Private or local companies developing the same apartment types in the same urban area.
- Residential developers in Riga
Local Latvian players competing for land and buyers in apartment projects.
- Commercial space investors
Funds and investors owning offices and commercial space that the group also leases.
- Larger construction groups
Companies with cheaper financing that can take on large projects in the same cities.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202205 Sept 2023
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2022-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Hepsor AS · 31 Dec 2022
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.