olivLaw · European equity research
ICADE ICAD.PA
France · Euronext Paris · Vertical: Listed companies from France
ICADE is a French real estate group combining two businesses: an office and tertiary property investment arm and a residential and tertiary development arm. In 2025 the development business returned to profitability while rental income from the property arm declined, and the group kept high leverage relative to EBITDA.
At the close of 06 Nov 2026, ICADE (ICAD.PA) stock was 15.63 EUR (+1.43% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.2 bn EUR, dividend yield 27.58%, beta 0.66, 52-week range 14.42–22.60 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 59.6
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 14.14 – 15.43
- above the upper band · %B 1.16 · band width 8.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 15.84 / 18.98
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.14 / -0.34
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +4.4% | −0.2% | +4.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −17.5% | −5.4% | −12.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | −22.3% | +4.4% | −26.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | −29.0% | +6.5% | −35.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | −23.9% | +10.0% | −33.9 pp | −8.2% |
| 3 years | −50.9% | +48.6% | −99.5 pp | −12.0% |
| 5 years | −77.6% | +41.4% | −119.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | -1.3 bn | -275.9 m | -123.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -16.48 | -3.64 | -1.62 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 850.7 m EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 3.9 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 9.6 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.17x
- ROE
- -3.0%
- ROA
- -1.2%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income | -1.3 bn | -321.0 m | -19.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 22.8 m | 26.9 m | 16.2 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -1.2 bn ≈ | -294.1 m ≈ | -2.9 m ≈ | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
| Income tax | 9.2 m | -26.7 m | 17.5 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | -1.3 bn | -275.9 m | -123.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -16.48 | -3.64 | -1.62 | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 4.33 | 4.84 | 4.31 | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.6 bn | 1.2 bn | 850.7 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 742.2 m | 630.4 m | 589.6 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 4.6 bn | 4.0 bn | 2.6 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 31.5 m | 34.9 m | 35.5 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 11.6 bn | 10.5 bn | 9.6 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.9 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 5.1 bn | 4.4 bn | 3.9 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 75.8 m | 75.8 m | 75.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 1 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 4.2% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
06 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.2 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
4% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 58.62 – 79.93 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)58.62 – 79.93 (Mid 67.63)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 1 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 4.2% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.2x | 31 (on a fixed band) | 100% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial31/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ICADE (ICAD.PA). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE -3.0%.
The estimated value range is 58.62–79.93 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 67.63 EUR, the price of 15.63 EUR leaves a potential of 332.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 76.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 1 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 4.2% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from France · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI.PAL'air Liquide Societe Anonyme Pour L'etude Et L'exploitation Des Procedes Georges Claude | 108.2 bn | 32.8 | 12.9% | 12.2% | −2.0% | +25% / +31% |
| BN.PADanone | 43.2 bn | 21.4 | 11.9% | 7.4% | −0.9% | −13% / +14% |
| AC.PAAccor | 13.9 bn | 31.1 | 9.6% | 8.0% | +0.6% | +7% / +57% |
| ADP.PAAeroports De Paris | 11.6 bn | 33.9 | 7.8% | 5.6% | +12.1% | −7% / +4% |
| AKE.PAArkema | 7.0 bn | 113.0 | 0.9% | 0.7% | −5.0% | +10% / −38% |
| ALO.PAAlstom | 5.7 bn | 17.9 | 3.1% | 1.7% | +3.7% | −52% / −6% |
| AF.PAAir France - Klm | 4.6 bn | 14.5 | — | 1.0% | +4.8% | +28% / +16% |
| ATE.PAAlten | 3.0 bn | 28.7 | 4.8% | 2.6% | −1.1% | +30% / −30% |
| BB.PASociete Bic | 2.7 bn | 31.0 | 5.0% | 4.1% | −4.8% | +31% / +4% |
| ANTIN.PAAntin Infrastructure Partners | 1.4 bn | 12.6 | 21.9% | 36.6% | −8.1% | −26% / −37% |
| 74SW.PA74software | 799.8 m | 21.0 | 8.9% | 8.5% | +44.8% | −12% / +42% |
| AUB.PAAubay | 629.9 m | 16.8 | 13.6% | 6.3% | +11.3% | −3% / +37% |
| ASY.PAAssystem | 503.5 m | 69.4 | 2.5% | 1.1% | +7.4% | −19% / −19% |
| ATO.PAAtos Se | 472.0 m | — | -23,400.0% | -17.5% | −16.5% | −46% / −94% |
| ARAMI.PAAramis Group | 291.4 m | 14.7 | 10.0% | 0.8% | +6.3% | −34% / −18% |
| ARVEN.PAArverne Group | 246.1 m | — | -14.0% | -115.3% | +27.0% | +20% / −35% |
| BGO.PACompagnie Chargeurs Invest | 184.6 m | — | -8.6% | -5.7% | −2.9% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ATEME.PAAteme | 153.5 m | 161.3 | 2.8% | 1.0% | +2.2% | +94% / +89% |
| ALCIS.PACatering International & Services | 144.6 m | 28.3 | 9.3% | 1.9% | +5.8% | +39% / +106% |
| ALHEX.PAHexaom | 144.0 m | 6.7 | 9.9% | 2.2% | +13.1% | −32% / +7% |
| ALCGM.PACegedim | 142.4 m | — | -2.6% | -1.2% | +10.9% | −27% / −50% |
| ALBON.PACompagnie Lebon | 110.8 m | 16.3 | 4.2% | 8.8% | −17.9% | +5% / +8% |
| ALHYF.PALhyfe | 74.4 m | — | -33.4% | -570.5% | +287.2% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALFER.PASergeferrari Group | 62.9 m | 11.7 | 5.1% | 1.5% | +7.4% | −31% / −26% |
| ABEO.PAAbeo | 59.3 m | 7.1 | 6.9% | 3.0% | +12.6% | −15% / −55% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ICAD.PA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
ICADE is a French real estate group combining two businesses: an office and tertiary property investment arm and a residential and tertiary development arm. In 2025 the development business returned to profitability while rental income from the property arm declined, and the group kept high leverage relative to EBITDA 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The integrated developer and property owner model lets the group control a project from land to operation, which clients and authorities value.
- The rent collection rate is very high, showing a solid tenant base largely made up of large groups and public entities.
- Liquidity is comfortable and average debt maturity has lengthened, which reduces short-term refinancing risk.
Weaknesses
- Net rental income fell and vacancy costs weighed on the property division's margin.
- Tertiary development activity contracted sharply, and 2025 results relied on high-margin deliveries that will not recur in the same proportion.
- Leverage relative to EBITDA remains high and financial income declined.
Opportunities
- Converting older offices into housing and shared spaces could open new income for the existing portfolio.
- Developing data centres on the group's land could bring new revenue if projects are completed as planned.
- Selective resumption of development through acquiring permitted operations could support activity in the coming years.
Threats
- A residential market still in downturn could keep pressure on prices and sales volumes.
- Geopolitical tensions and climate risks could weigh on economic growth and construction supply chains.
- Regulatory changes on land sobriety and energy standards could raise development costs.
Risks
- Residential market downturnhigh
Lower volumes and margins in the residential market could weigh on the Promotion division if demand recovery is delayed 1.
- Vacancy in the office portfoliomedium
Higher vacancy costs have reduced net rental margin in the property arm; if the trend continues, Foncière results could remain below 2024 levels 1.
- High leveragehigh
Leverage relative to EBITDA remains high, and the rating agency revised its outlook to negative, which could limit financing access or raise its cost 1.
- Reliance on tertiary deliveriesmedium
2025 profitability relied on high-margin tertiary deliveries that will not repeat to the same extent, which could reduce profits in later years 1.
- Rising working capitallow
Higher working capital linked to resumed development could absorb available liquidity if sales are delayed 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the recovery in residential demand and margins continues, the Promotion division could support steadier profits in the coming years.
- Liquidity and extended debt maturities could reduce refinancing risk and support the investment plan.
- Asset repurposing and new asset classes such as data centres could diversify the group's income sources.
What would break the thesis
- If the residential market stays in downturn, volumes and margins in the Promotion division could fall again.
- High leverage relative to EBITDA and a negative rating outlook could constrain the group's financial flexibility.
- The 2025 result benefited from rare high-margin tertiary deliveries; without them, profitability could return to lower levels.
What to watch
- Trend in Foncière margin and vacancy costs2026
- Residential reservations and Promotion ROEC marginQ1 2027
- Completion of the Marignan asset disposal2026
- Net debt and leverage relative to EBITDA disclosuresnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
ICADE operates as an integrated group with two main divisions: Foncière, which owns and leases office and other assets, and Promotion, which develops housing and tertiary buildings. The group describes its model as both developer and property owner, which lets it manage a real estate project over the long term from land to operation 1.
The Foncière division generated net rental income of 317,4 million euros in 2025, down from 2024, as vacancy costs weighed on margins 1. On financing, the group had net debt of 3 189 million euros at 31 December 2025 and liquidity of 2,6 billion euros 1.
In 2025 the group selectively resumed development, including buying operations with building permits already obtained, and shifted its portfolio away from healthcare toward assets such as student housing and data centres 1.
Market context
The French property development market has been in a deep downturn since 2022, marked by higher interest rates, construction costs and the end of the Pinel scheme. According to the document, the residential market fell 11 % in volume in 2025, and demand shifted toward institutional investors and first-time buyers 1.
The office market remains fragile, with the tertiary segment stagnating, while demand for well-located space and repurposed assets shows some resilience. The group sees data centres and building conversions as growth directions, though these are still at early stages 1.
Trends
- Residential development downturnmixed
Higher rates and construction costs slowed demand from 2022, and the end of the Pinel scheme reduced sales to private buyers. If demand recovery proves durable, results in the Promotion division could keep improving 1.
- Institutional and bulk demandtailwind
Institutional investors, social landlords and intermediate housing players accounted for 67 % of Promotion demand, up 4 points in a year, which supports sales volume 1.
- Tertiary office marketheadwind
Office demand has not recovered and tertiary revenue in Promotion has fallen sharply. The decline in tertiary margins could reduce the contribution from deliveries in later years, according to the group's own assessment 1.
- Cost of financingmixed
The average cost of debt rose slightly and treasury income fell, weighing on financial results. Prudent hedging and the refinancing programme could ease short-term pressure 1.
Competitive position
ICADE competes in the French market with other listed and private property companies and developers, especially in well-located offices and investor housing. The group presents its integrated developer and property owner model as a differentiator for clients and local authorities 1.
In development, competition is intensifying as the market contracts, and an advantage could depend on the ability to launch programmes with restored margins and to use existing land 1.
- Gecina
French office property company, comparable to the Foncière division; not named in the source, so not confirmed by the official document.
- Nexity
French residential developer, a direct rival of the Promotion division; not named in the source.
- Vinci Immobilier
French residential and tertiary developer; not named in the source.
- Covivio
French property company with office and residential assets; not named in the source.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202507 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / ICADE · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.