olivLaw · European equity research
Lottomatica Group S.p.A. LTMC.MI
Italy · Euronext Milan · ISIN IT0005541336 · Vertical: Listed companies from Italy
Lottomatica Group is Italy's leading public gaming operator, with concessions, retail and online activities. For 2026 the group guides to revenue between 2,390 and 2,460 million EUR, in a context where regulation and market consolidation shape the sector's direction.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Lottomatica Group S.p.A. (LTMC.MI) stock was 27.49 EUR (+2.38% on the day), with P/E 39.3 on diluted EPS of 0.70 EUR over the last 12 months, beta 0.59, 52-week range 19.20–27.83 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 72.1
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 22.95 – 27.26
- above the upper band · %B 1.05 · band width 17.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 25.62 / 24.80
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.43 / 0.09
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +10.2% | −0.6% | +10.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | +14.5% | −4.2% | +18.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | −0.7% | +4.3% | −5.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | +22.7% | +7.5% | +15.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +30.5% | +9.9% | +20.6 pp | −6.1% |
| 3 years | +203.7% | +49.8% | +153.8 pp | +7.7% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +42.8% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 32.0, median 32.5, max 32.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | 2.0 bn | 2.3 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +12.0% |
| Net income | unavailable | 98.6 m | 174.3 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +76.8% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.70 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +79.5% |
| net % | unavailable | 4.9% | 7.7% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | 460.6 m | 572.1 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 143.9 m EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 377.5 m EUR
- Total assets
- 3.5 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.49x
- ROE
- 37.0%
- ROA
- 5.0%
- FCF margin
- 25.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | 2.0 bn | 2.3 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Interest expense | — | 215.4 m | 193.4 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | — | 180.9 m | 275.8 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | — | 77.1 m | 95.9 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | — | 98.6 m | 174.3 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.70 | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | — | 164.2 m | 143.9 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | 1.5 m | 1.6 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 437.6 m | 408.6 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | 148.5 m | 160.4 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | — | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | 698.0 m | 745.4 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 3.4 bn | 3.5 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 584.3 m | 826.0 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | — | 565.5 m | 377.5 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | — | 524.3 m | 635.0 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | — | 63.7 m | 62.9 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | — | 460.6 m ≈ | 572.1 m ≈ | esef· 24 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | — | -341.3 m | -295.8 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | — | -313.5 m | -359.5 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | — | 67.1 m | 78.2 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 39.6% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
40% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 4.40 – 16.00 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E4.40 – 16.00 (Mid 9.28)20 companies used · median multiple 13.3x · quartiles 6.3x – 22.9xAC5.MI, ACE.MI, ADB.MI, AEF.MI, AMP.MI, ARN.MI, ASC.MI, BC.MI, BEC.MI, CAI.MI, CIR.MI, CLF.MI, CMB.MI, COM.MI, CRL.MI, CY4.MI, DEX.MI, DIA.MI, DLG.MI, DNR.MI
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 39.6% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 7.7% | 56 (vs peers) | 16% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 328.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 21.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 21% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.5x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 39.3x | 14 (vs peers) | 26% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 13.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality78/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial14/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
LOTTOMATICA GROUP S.P.A. (LTMC.MI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.3 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth 12.0%; net margin 7.7%; ROE 41.3%.
The estimated value range is 4.40–16.00 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 9.28 EUR, the price of 27.49 EUR leaves a potential of -66.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -196.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 39.6% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 328.2%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 21.5%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 13.7%
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.5x
- P/E (TTM): 39.3x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Italy · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLG.MIDe' Longhi S.p.a. | 6.8 bn | 21.5 | 15.4% | 8.4% | +8.7% | +24% / +60% |
| ACE.MIAcea S.p.a. | 4.6 bn | 9.6 | 18.2% | 16.6% | +0.2% | −4% / +73% |
| DIA.MIDiasorin S.p.a. | 4.3 bn | 28.3 | 9.2% | 13.0% | +0.8% | +31% / −7% |
| CRL.MICarel Industries S.p.a. | 2.9 bn | 39.5 | 16.1% | 11.7% | +8.7% | +3% / +10% |
| AMP.MIAmplifon S.p.a. | 2.7 bn | 29.9 | 8.5% | 3.8% | −0.6% | −9% / −58% |
| CMB.MICembre S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 27.0 | 20.6% | 18.9% | +6.7% | +11% / +108% |
| COM.MIComer Industries S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 18.6 | 12.8% | 7.1% | −23.0% | +8% / +64% |
| DNR.MIIndustrie De Nora S.p.a. | 1.1 bn | 13.4 | 8.6% | 9.4% | +1.4% | −22% / −62% |
| ARN.MIAlerion Clean Power S.p.a. In Forma Abbreviata Alerion S.p.a. | 969.2 m | 10.4 | 23.5% | 41.0% | +1.8% | −5% / −23% |
| AVIO.MIAvio S.p.a. | 883.6 m | 86.8 | 2.1% | 1.8% | +21.5% | +18% / +291% |
| CIR.MICir S.p.a. - Compagnie Industriali Riunite | 783.3 m | 6.0 | 17.1% | 7.3% | +1.6% | +4% / +72% |
| ASC.MIAscopiave S.p.a. | 646.3 m | 18.0 | 4.2% | 17.5% | +13.4% | −8% / +33% |
| AC5.MIAcinque S.p.a. | 412.6 m | 19.6 | 4.1% | 3.6% | +0.2% | −6% / +8% |
| BAN.MIBasic Net S.p.a. | 348.0 m | — | -4.9% | -3.5% | +0.4% | −30% / +5% |
| ADB.MIAeroporto Guglielmo Marconi Di Bologna S.p.a. | 324.7 m | 13.1 | 11.1% | 13.7% | +9.2% | −2% / +12% |
| CAI.MICairo Communication S.p.a. | 289.2 m | 6.4 | 8.1% | 4.4% | −1.3% | −22% / +28% |
| ECNL.MIAquafil S.p.a. | 129.6 m | — | -3.2% | -0.9% | −3.9% | −1% / −52% |
| BEC.MIB&C Speakers S.p.a. | 118.7 m | 11.7 | 18.5% | 10.2% | −1.3% | −26% / −32% |
| ABT.MIAbitare In S.p.a. | 76.0 m | 276.0 | 0.4% | 0.4% | +39.8% | −6% / −47% |
| ELC.MIElica S.p.a. | 64.3 m | — | -7.8% | -2.2% | +1.9% | −34% / −48% |
| DEX.MIDexelance S.p.a. | 50.7 m | 2.8 | 11.0% | 5.4% | +12.6% | −63% / −78% |
| CLE.MIClass Editori S.p.a. | 35.1 m | — | -29.2% | -3.8% | −0.7% | −9% / +106% |
| CLF.MICaleffi - S.p.a. | 11.6 m | 5.2 | 10.9% | 3.8% | −2.5% | −4% / −10% |
| AEF.MIAeffe S.p.a. | 10.1 m | 0.5 | 21.9% | 7.7% | −21.3% | −59% / −86% |
| BC.MIBrunello Cucinelli S.p.a. | 6.2 m | 0.0 | 26.5% | 75,526.1% | 0.0% | −5% / +15% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for LTMC.MI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Lottomatica Group is Italy's leading public gaming operator, with concessions, retail and online activities. For 2026 the group guides to revenue between 2,390 and 2,460 million EUR 1, in a context where regulation and market consolidation shape the sector's direction.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Regulatory riskhigh
Legislative changes to public gaming could alter operating conditions and revenues if authorities impose new limits 1.
- Payout riskhigh
The guidance depends on normalised payout assumptions, and differences from actual results could affect margins 1.
- Competition riskmedium
Online and retail competitors could erode market share if they improve their offers 1.
- Compliance and integrity riskmedium
Breaches of anti-corruption rules or data protection could have financial and reputational consequences 1.
- Climate risklow
Extreme weather events could generate maintenance costs, although the group considers its exposure limited 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the group delivers its 2026 guidance, its leading position and concession network could support cash flows and shareholder returns 1.
- Digitalisation and advanced ERM tools could reduce operational risks and make growth more predictable 1.
- The treasury share buyback programme offers flexibility for shareholders and for strategic operations 1.
What would break the thesis
- Dependence on regulation and concessions could turn any legislative change into a significant revenue impact 1.
- The normalised payout assumptions in the guidance might not materialise, which would affect EBITDA margins 1.
- Heightened competition in online and sports betting could limit growth and pressure market pricing 1.
What to watch
- Delivery of the 2026 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance2026
- Actual payout compared with normalised assumptionsQ1 2027
- Changes to the regulatory framework and concession conditions2027
- Use of the treasury share buyback programmenext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Lottomatica Group S.p.A. is the parent company of a group operating in public gaming and sports betting, with concessions and its own retail and online networks in Italy 1. The 2025 annual report describes a group that integrates sustainability strategy, governance and ERM risk management into its business model 1. Operational leadership is organised around the Board of Directors and a Chief Executive Officer 1.
Segments
Market context
The Italian public gaming market is strictly regulated, and revenues depend on concessions, payout and gaming volumes 1. The 2026 guidance rests on normalised payout assumptions, which makes results sensitive to changes in player behaviour and regulation 1.
The group operates within a concession framework with deadlines and investment obligations that define market access and the cost structure 1. Sustainability and protection of minors are treated as regulatory and reputational priorities 1.
Trends
- Regulation and concessionsmixed
The regulatory framework for public gaming and the concession regime could change operating conditions and required investments if authorities modify the rules 1.
- Digitalisation of gamingtailwind
Migration to online channels could expand the customer base and margins if adoption continues, but it also raises compliance pressure 1.
- Regulatory pressure on responsible gamingheadwind
Stricter responsible-gaming requirements could limit volume growth, particularly in the online segment 1.
- Sustainability and CSRD reportingmixed
Adoption of ESRS standards and the climate transition plan may generate reporting costs but could strengthen credibility with investors 1.
Competitive position
Competition includes public gaming operators and online operators licensed in Italy, as well as international sports betting players 1. The group's position depends on its physical network and the concessions it holds 1.
- Flutter EntertainmentFLUT
International betting and gaming operator active in several markets, relevant as a competitor in online.
- Entain
International gaming and sports betting group active in European markets, a competitor in sports betting.
- Sisal
Italian public gaming operator with physical and online presence, a direct competitor in the domestic market.
- Snai
Italian betting and gaming operator with a retail point-of-sale network, a competitor in retail.
News & filings
In the press
- Lottomatica Goes All-In on Spanish Rival CirsaYahoo Finance — News · 02 Sept 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202524 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202324 Mar 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Lottomatica Group S.p.A. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.