olivLaw · European equity research
Metsä Board Oyj METSB.HE
Finland · Nasdaq Helsinki · Vertical: Listed companies from Finland
Metsä Board Oyj is a Finnish producer of packaging board, white-top kraftliner and market pulp. For fiscal 2025 the board proposes no dividend and the result per share was negative, which makes its financial position worth close monitoring.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Metsä Board Oyj (METSB.HE) stock was 3.10 EUR (+0.06% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.1 bn EUR, beta 0.89, 52-week range 2.56–3.60 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 47.3
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 2.90 – 3.37
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.43 · band width 15.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 3.27 / 3.02
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.06 / -0.06
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −1.9% | −0.6% | −1.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | +0.3% | −4.2% | +4.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | +2.7% | +4.3% | −1.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | −0.4% | +7.5% | −8.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | +8.4% | +9.9% | −1.5 pp | −1.2% |
| 3 years | −58.0% | +49.8% | −107.8 pp | +6.8% |
| 5 years | −61.2% | +42.8% | −104.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.9 bn | 1.8 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −8.4% |
| Net income | 25.3 m | -156.6 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −719.0% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.07 | -0.44 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −728.6% |
| net % | 1.3% | -8.8% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 309.3 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 564.5 m EUR
- Net debt
- 255.2 m EUR
- Equity
- 1.8 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 2.9 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.32x
- Current ratio
- 1.65x
- ROE
- -8.5%
- ROA
- -5.3%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.9 bn | 1.8 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 62.3 m | -169.5 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 51.4 m | -186.9 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 12.0 m | -22.3 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 25.3 m | -156.6 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.07 | -0.44 | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 355.0 m | 355.1 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 182.6 m | 309.3 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 278.3 m | 238.7 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 472.6 m | 374.1 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 951.7 m | 932.7 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 12.2 m | 12.2 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 35.0 m | 32.8 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 3.0 bn | 2.9 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 390.6 m | 489.2 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 115.5 m | 68.8 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 411.9 m | 495.7 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 535.8 m | 566.9 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.9 bn | 1.8 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 361.4 m | 355.9 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 3 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.1 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
21% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -6.7% | 8 (vs peers) | 50% |
| Net margin · Quality | -8.8% | 10 (vs peers) | 30% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.6x | 70 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial70/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality9/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Metsä Board Oyj (METSB.HE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.8 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth -8.4%; net margin -8.8%; ROE -9.4%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 1.6x
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -6.7%
- Net margin: -8.8%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Finland · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FORTUM.HEFortum Oyj | 20.8 bn | 27.2 | 8.7% | 15.3% | −14.0% | +32% / +81% |
| ELISA.HEElisa Oyj | 5.6 bn | 16.3 | 27.0% | 15.2% | +3.0% | −8% / −15% |
| KALMAR.HEKalmar Oyj | 2.4 bn | 14.7 | 24.1% | 9.4% | +1.2% | +0% / unavailable |
| KCR.HEKonecranes Oyj | 2.2 bn | 5.6 | 20.3% | 9.5% | −0.9% | −4% / +134% |
| EXEL.HEExel Composites Oyj | 1.8 bn | — | -18.5% | -5.3% | +3.6% | +163% / +74% |
| BITTI.HEBittium Oyj | 1.2 bn | 55.8 | 17.5% | 17.9% | +40.1% | +73% / +603% |
| ALMA.HEAlma Media Oyj | 1.2 bn | 21.2 | 23.0% | 16.9% | +4.6% | +9% / +57% |
| METSB.HEMetsä Board Oyj | 1.1 bn | — | -9.4% | -8.8% | −8.4% | +4% / −56% |
| FIA1S.HEFinnair Oyj | 927.4 m | 50.4 | 2.9% | 0.6% | +1.9% | +54% / +22% |
| GRK.HEGRK Infra Oyj | 788.5 m | 18.3 | 27.8% | 4.9% | +19.7% | +52% / unavailable |
| HARVIA.HEHarvia Oyj | 768.7 m | 29.3 | 21.0% | 13.3% | +13.5% | −1% / +64% |
| ATRAV.HEAtria Oyj | 451.7 m | 11.1 | 9.8% | 2.2% | +3.3% | +13% / +57% |
| ANORA.HEAnora Group Oyj | 317.6 m | 57.8 | 1.4% | 0.8% | −4.9% | +26% / +11% |
| CAPMAN.HECapMan Oyj | 300.2 m | 23.1 | 6.8% | 20.9% | +9.4% | −8% / −20% |
| ICP1V.HEIncap Oyj | 261.0 m | 18.7 | 10.4% | 6.5% | −6.7% | −3% / +37% |
| FSECURE.HEF-Secure Oyj | 243.7 m | 10.9 | 43.4% | 15.3% | −0.4% | −17% / −23% |
| ASPO.HEAspo Oyj | 219.4 m | 9.3 | 15.4% | 5.0% | +2.1% | +2% / +9% |
| ETTE.HEEtteplan Oyj | 173.7 m | 16.4 | 8.8% | 2.9% | +0.1% | −27% / −51% |
| DIGIA.HEDigia Oyj | 131.6 m | 10.5 | 14.5% | 5.9% | +5.5% | −16% / −12% |
| ILKKA.HEIlkka Oyj | 93.8 m | 8.1 | 6.2% | 30.8% | +22.6% | +0% / +21% |
| CONSTI.HEConsti Oyj | 77.4 m | 11.6 | 15.3% | 2.0% | +2.9% | −8% / −6% |
| APETIT.HEApetit Oyj | 75.6 m | 8.4 | 8.2% | 5.4% | +3.1% | −14% / −3% |
| ESENSE.HEEnersense International Oyj | 74.9 m | 74.7 | 3.1% | 0.4% | −27.7% | +12% / +9% |
| CTH1V.HEComponenta Oyj | 66.1 m | 324.0 | 0.8% | 0.2% | −4.6% | +49% / +182% |
| KAMUX.HEKamux Oyj | 47.4 m | 10.3 | 4.2% | 0.5% | +0.8% | −40% / −77% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for METSB.HE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Metsä Board Oyj is a Finnish producer of packaging board, white-top kraftliner and market pulp. For fiscal 2025 the board proposes no dividend and the result per share was negative, which makes its financial position worth close monitoring.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group has a diversified structure across three business lines and a strategic stake in Metsä Fibre, giving access to virgin fibre 1.
- Integration into Metsä Group brings shared policies, processes and services that support internal control and reporting 1.
- Sustainability reporting is verified by a third party with limited assurance, which adds credibility to the data 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
- Demand for recyclable fibre packaging could increase board volumes if the trend holds 1.
- ESG transparency requirements could favour suppliers that report verified data, as Metsä Board does 1.
- The stake in Metsä Fibre offers a base for optimising fibre costs if the raw material market becomes favourable 1.
Risks
- Profitability under pressurehigh
The negative result per share in 2025 indicates weaker margins, with effects on the capacity to sustain dividends 1.
- Cyclical marketshigh
Prices for board and pulp change frequently, which could quickly affect group revenue 1.
- Dependence on Metsä Groupmedium
Shared policies, processes and services with Metsä Group could limit the company's strategic flexibility 1.
- Sustainability reportingmedium
Errors in scope 3 data or in the conversion factors used could affect the credibility of reporting 1.
- Compliance costslow
ESRS and EU taxonomy requirements could raise administrative and audit costs 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand for fibre-based packaging rises, board volumes could support revenue, and the three-line structure offers diversification 1.
- The stake in Metsä Fibre and integration into Metsä Group could lower fibre costs and support operating efficiency 1.
- Third-party-verified sustainability reporting could attract customers who require transparency on value chain emissions 1.
What would break the thesis
- The negative result per share in 2025 and the absence of a dividend show that profitability does not yet support shareholder distributions 1.
- Cyclical pulp and board markets could reduce prices and revenue in a period of weak demand 1.
- Compliance costs and dependence on group decisions could limit the company's room for manoeuvre 1.
What to watch
- Development of result per share and margins in quarterly reportsQ1 2026
- General meeting decision on the dividend for 20252026
- Trend in packaging board and pulp prices2026
- Next annual report and verified sustainability datanext annual report
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Metsä Board Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, forms a forest industry group with three business lines: folding boxboard, white kraftliner and market pulp 1. Reporting covers the group and entities in which Metsä Board holds directly or indirectly more than 50 per cent of voting rights 1. The company also owns 24.9 per cent of Metsä Fibre Oy, which is accounted for as an associate 1.
Segments
Folding boxboard
This line includes packaging boards, on which the group depends for a significant part of revenue, according to the reporting structure in the 2025 annual report 1.
White kraftliner
The white kraftliner line covers products made from virgin fibre for printing and special uses, reported as a distinct part of the group 1.
Market pulp
Market pulp is sold in external markets and complements the board business, with its results reported separately within the group 1.
Market context
The market for packaging board and pulp is cyclical and depends on industrial demand and raw material prices. The documents provided give no quantitative market data, so conclusions are limited to the reporting structure 1.
Trends
- Pressure on earnings per shareheadwind
The negative result per share in 2025 points to pressure on profitability, which could limit dividend capacity if the trend continues 1.
- Focus on sustainable packagingtailwind
Demand for recyclable fibre packaging could support the board segment, if the substitution of plastic continues 1.
- Environmental costs and regulationmixed
Sustainability reporting under ESRS and scope 3 requirements adds administrative costs, but could bring advantages for customers asking for verified data 1.
- Integration with Metsä Groupmixed
Reliance on shared services and policies of Metsä Group could bring economies of scale, but also exposure to group decisions 1.
Competitive position
Competition includes European and international producers of board and pulp. The sources provided do not name competitors, so this analysis remains descriptive.
- Stora Enso
Competing producer of packaging board and paper, active in Europe and Asia; not named in the sources and included as a general reference.
- UPM-Kymmene
Finnish pulp and paper producer with which Metsä Board competes indirectly in the raw material and paper markets; general reference, not confirmed by the source.
- Smurfit WestrockSW
American producer of corrugated packaging, active in markets comparable to packaging board; general reference, not confirmed by the source.
- International PaperIP
American packaging and pulp producer, competing in board and fibre segments; general reference, not confirmed by the source.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202504 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202504 Mar 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Metsä Board Oyj · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.