olivLaw · European equity research
Socfinaf S.A. SOFAF.LU
Luxembourg · Luxembourg Stock Exchange · Vertical: Listed companies from Luxembourg
Socfinaf S.A. is a Luxembourg-listed holding company in the Socfin group that owns and manages oil palm and rubber plantations in Africa, with turnover lower than in earlier years but a higher attributable profit in fiscal 2024. Palm oil prices remain sensitive to biofuel demand and competition from alternative vegetable oils, so the company's performance depends on these markets.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Socfinaf S.A. (SOFAF.LU) stock was 24.00 EUR (+0.00% on the day), with market capitalisation 428.7 m EUR, P/E 7.5 on diluted EPS of 3.18 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 0.14, 52-week range 22.80–27.20 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 48.3
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 22.81 – 25.01
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.54 · band width 9.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 24.60 / 24.79
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.23 / -0.23
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −4.0% | +0.4% | −4.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | −0.8% | −3.3% | +2.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | −1.6% | +4.0% | −5.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | −0.8% | +8.1% | −8.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | −0.8% | +10.7% | −11.5 pp | −12.4% |
| 3 years | +118.2% | +50.1% | +68.1 pp | +38.8% |
| 5 years | +101.7% | +43.6% | +58.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 3.0, median 3.8, max 6.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 637.3 m | 563.1 m | 591.4 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −11.7% | +5.0% |
| Net income | 73.2 m | 28.2 m | 56.8 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −61.4% | +101.1% |
| Diluted EPS | 4.10 | 1.58 | 3.18 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −61.5% | +101.3% |
| net % | 11.5% | 5.0% | 9.6% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- 40.5 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 38.4 m EUR
- Net debt
- -2.1 m EUR
- Equity
- 525.2 m EUR
- Total assets
- 798.5 m EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.07x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 11.5%
- ROA
- 7.1%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 637.3 m | 563.1 m | 591.4 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Operating income | 175.3 m | 105.2 m | 118.6 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Interest expense | 41.2 m | 43.0 m | 37.0 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 141.1 m | 84.9 m | 113.8 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Net income | 73.2 m | 28.2 m | 56.8 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 4.10 | 1.58 | 3.18 | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 63.6 m | 39.7 m | 40.5 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Inventories | 105.8 m | 88.7 m | 102.1 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 277.5 m | 232.8 m | 227.4 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 1.4 m | 991.7 k | 807.1 k | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Total assets | 903.6 m | 797.0 m | 798.5 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 163.9 m | 102.8 m | 38.4 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Equity | 485.3 m | 463.9 m | 525.2 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 17.9 m | 17.9 m | 17.9 m | esef· 21 May 2025derived |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 428.7 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
33% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 24.67 – 29.43 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E24.67 – 29.43 (Mid 26.09)4 companies used · median multiple 8.2x · quartiles 7.8x – 9.3xFTXHG.LU, ORCL.LU, REINI.LU, SCFNS.LU
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 19.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 31% |
| Net margin · Quality | 9.6% | 64 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 3.2x | 26 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 7.5x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 31% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial26/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality87/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
SOCFINAF S.A. (SOFAF.LU). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 591.4 m EUR in 2024; YoY growth 5.0%; net margin 9.6%; ROE 14.5%.
The estimated value range is 24.67–29.43 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 26.09 EUR, the price of 24.00 EUR leaves a potential of 8.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 8.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 19.0%
- P/E (TTM): 7.5x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Interest coverage: 3.2x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Luxembourg · same country · compared with 4 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REINI.LUReinet Investments S.c.a. | 4.4 bn | 8.6 | 8.7% | 99.4% | unavailable | +1% / +26% |
| ORCL.LUCpi Fim SA | 887.8 m | 11.3 | 5.4% | 53.0% | +167.3% | −31% / +51% |
| SCFNS.LUSocfinasia S.A. | 477.9 m | 7.8 | 25.2% | 32.7% | +4.4% | −2% / +63% |
| SOFAF.LUSocfinaf S.A. | 428.7 m | 7.5 | 14.5% | 9.6% | +5.0% | −3% / +126% |
| FTXHG.LUFotex Holding | 77.4 m | 7.5 | 5.4% | 25.5% | +0.5% | −22% / −40% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for SOFAF.LU from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 14.26 Total return -41% · Per year -41% | 25.21 Total return 5% · Per year 5% | 37.96 Total return 58% · Per year 58% |
| 3 years | 13.99 Total return -42% · Per year -16% | 27.81 Total return 16% · Per year 5% | 45.96 Total return 91% · Per year 24% |
| 5 years | 13.72 Total return -43% · Per year -11% | 30.67 Total return 28% · Per year 5% | 55.64 Total return 132% · Per year 18% |
- Exit P/E± 6.95
- Net margin± 4.87
- Annual revenue growth± 3.97
- Annual dilution± 0.41
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Socfinaf S.A. is a Luxembourg-listed holding company in the Socfin group that owns and manages oil palm and rubber plantations in Africa, with turnover lower than in earlier years but a higher attributable profit in fiscal 2024. Palm oil prices remain sensitive to biofuel demand and competition from alternative vegetable oils, so the company's performance depends on these markets.
SWOT
Strengths
- Diversification between palm oil and rubber reduces dependence on a single agricultural product.
- The company raised its attributable profit in 2024 despite lower palm oil turnover.
- Group structure and operating experience in Africa provide a stable production base.
Weaknesses
- Palm oil revenue fell in 2024, showing sensitivity to global prices.
- No dividend per share was paid in the years presented, limiting shareholder returns.
- Majority control by the main shareholder may limit the influence of minority shareholders.
Opportunities
- Biofuel demand could support palm oil prices if the programmes are fully applied.
- Production growth in some countries could add volume to existing markets.
- Rubber revenue rose in 2024, which could support expansion of this segment.
Threats
- Competition from cheap soybean oil could reduce demand for palm oil.
- Limited land and labour shortages could slow production.
- Adverse weather and trade tensions could affect yields and prices.
Risks
- Agricultural price volatilityhigh
Palm oil and rubber prices can fluctuate sharply, which could affect revenue.
- Climate riskmedium
Extreme weather could reduce yields on the African plantations.
- Competition from other oilsmedium
Soybean oil could become more attractive to importers if palm oil prices rise.
- Political and regulatory riskmedium
Changes in public policy in operating countries could affect activity and exports.
- Shareholder concentrationlow
Control exercised by the main shareholder could limit minority shareholder protection.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If biofuel programmes are fully implemented, palm oil demand could support prices and the company's revenue.
- Profit attributable to the group rose in 2024, which could show an ability to offset declines in some segments.
- The rubber segment grew in 2024, which could balance dependence on palm oil.
What would break the thesis
- If soybean oil stays cheaper, importers could prefer the alternative, limiting palm oil prices.
- Palm oil revenue fell in 2024, which could indicate pressure on a key segment.
- The absence of dividends in the years presented could discourage investors seeking regular income.
What to watch
- Development of palm oil and rubber turnoverQ1 2027
- Implementation of Indonesia's B40 programme2027
- Consolidated annual results and dividend policynext 10-K
- Development of the CIF Rotterdam crude palm oil price2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Segments
Other activities
The remaining turnover comes from other agricultural products and miscellaneous activities, which represented a small share of group revenue in 2024 1.
Market context
The CIF Rotterdam crude palm oil price was 1,275 USD per ton at 31 December 2024 1. The source indicates a rise in palm production expected in 2025, with Indonesia projected to reach about 48.1 million tons, but also a slowdown in long-term production growth because of limited land availability 1.
Indonesia's B40 programme aims to raise the palm oil-based share of biodiesel to 40% in 2025, which could reduce export availability and support prices 1. However, cheaper South American soybean oil, which was less volatile in 2024, could limit palm oil price increases 1.
Trends
- Biofuel demandtailwind
Biofuel programmes, especially Indonesia's B40, support palm oil demand and could sustain prices if fully implemented.
- Land and labour constraintsheadwind
Limited land availability and labour shortages could slow the growth of global palm oil production.
- Competition from vegetable oilsheadwind
Soybean oil, more stable in price in 2024, could shift importers' preferences and limit palm oil price gains.
- Trade tensions and weathermixed
Trade tensions and weather conditions can affect exports and vegetable oil prices, with mixed effects on the company.
Competitive position
The main competition comes from other palm oil producers in Indonesia and Malaysia, which together hold a majority of world production, and from South American soybean oil 1. In rubber, competition is tied to global natural rubber prices and third-party purchasing.
The relative price of palm oil against other vegetable oils largely determines the company's ability to keep its commercial positions in importing markets 1.
- Indonesian palm oil producers
Indonesia is the largest world producer, holding a majority share together with Malaysia; competition runs on volume and price.
- Malaysian palm oil producers
Malaysia has stable output and competes for the same importing markets.
- South American soybean oil producers
Soybean oil from Brazil and Argentina competes directly with palm oil in food and industrial markets.
- Global natural rubber producers
Rubber competition comes from producers in Southeast Asia and other regions, with prices tied to global demand.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202421 May 2025
- Annual report 202309 Jul 2024
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2024-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Socfinaf S.A. · 31 Dec 2024
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.