olivLaw · European equity research
Tikehau Capital TKO.PA
France · Euronext Paris · ISIN FR0013230612 · Vertical: Listed companies from France
Tikehau Capital is a European alternative asset manager with credit, real assets, capital markets strategies and private equity as business lines, plus a proprietary investment portfolio. The group focuses its investments mainly on Europe, in a context of geopolitical fragmentation and shifting allocations, which may support its relevance for institutional and retail investors.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Tikehau Capital (TKO.PA) stock was 16.76 EUR (−1.18% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.0 bn EUR, P/E 72.9 on diluted EPS of 0.23 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 4.77%, beta 0.64, 52-week range 14.62–19.66 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 56.0
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 15.42 – 17.15
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.77 · band width 10.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 16.37 / 16.92
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.12 / 0.01
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +5.7% | −0.6% | +6.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −0.9% | −4.2% | +3.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −5.3% | +4.3% | −9.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +5.8% | +7.5% | −1.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | −2.8% | +9.9% | −12.7 pp | −8.8% |
| 3 years | −17.0% | +49.8% | −66.9 pp | −10.0% |
| 5 years | −34.0% | +42.8% | −76.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 20.7, median 21.0, max 68.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 176.7 m | 179.4 m | 42.7 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +1.5% | −76.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.98 | 0.99 | 0.23 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +1.0% | −76.8% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 113.9 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 1.9 bn EUR
- Net debt
- 1.8 bn EUR
- Equity
- 3.2 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 5.4 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.61x
- Current ratio
- 1.96x
- ROE
- 1.3%
- ROA
- 0.8%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax income | 191.5 m | 238.3 m | 70.8 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 14.9 m | 59.0 m | 28.6 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 176.7 m | 179.4 m | 42.7 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.98 | 0.99 | 0.23 | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 180.6 m | 180.6 m | 181.6 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.70 | 0.75 | 0.80 | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 177.2 m | 224.7 m | 113.9 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 447.8 m | 486.5 m | 386.0 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 4.9 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.4 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 14.6 m | 24.5 m | 36.5 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.9 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 152.0 m | 178.9 m | 197.1 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 3.2 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.2 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 174.9 m | 175.8 m | 178.0 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 3 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 3.0 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
21% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 2.64 – 14.84 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E2.64 – 6.78 (Mid 4.09)21 companies used · median multiple 17.8x · quartiles 11.5x – 29.5x74SW.PA, ABEO.PA, AC.PA, ADP.PA, AF.PA, AI.PA, ALBON.PA, ALCIS.PA, ALCLA.PA, ALFER.PA, ALHEX.PA, ALO.PA, ALPWG.PA, ALSOG.PA, ANTIN.PA, ARAMI.PA, ATE.PA, AUB.PA, AURE.PA, BB.PA, BN.PA
- Dividend discount (DDM)10.88 – 14.84 (Mid 12.55)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.0x | 97 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 72.9x | 8 (vs peers) | 50% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.7% | 67 (on a fixed band) | 30% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial97/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial67/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial8/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
TIKEHAU CAPITAL (TKO.PA). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 1.3%.
The estimated value range is 6.76–10.81 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 8.32 EUR, the price of 16.76 EUR leaves a potential of -50.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -101.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 2.0x
What contradicts it
- P/E (TTM): 72.9x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from France · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI.PAL'air Liquide Societe Anonyme Pour L'etude Et L'exploitation Des Procedes Georges Claude | 109.3 bn | 33.2 | 12.9% | 12.2% | −2.0% | +26% / +32% |
| BN.PADanone | 44.1 bn | 21.9 | 11.9% | 7.4% | −0.9% | −11% / +16% |
| AC.PAAccor | 13.8 bn | 30.7 | 9.6% | 8.0% | +0.6% | +6% / +56% |
| ADP.PAAeroports De Paris | 11.7 bn | 34.1 | 7.8% | 5.6% | +12.1% | −7% / +4% |
| AKE.PAArkema | 7.1 bn | 115.4 | 0.9% | 0.7% | −5.0% | +12% / −37% |
| ALO.PAAlstom | 5.8 bn | 18.3 | 3.1% | 1.7% | +3.7% | −51% / −4% |
| AF.PAAir France - Klm | 4.3 bn | 13.6 | — | 1.0% | +4.8% | +20% / +9% |
| ATE.PAAlten | 3.1 bn | 29.5 | 4.8% | 2.6% | −1.1% | +33% / −29% |
| BB.PASociete Bic | 2.7 bn | 31.3 | 5.0% | 4.1% | −4.8% | +32% / +5% |
| ANTIN.PAAntin Infrastructure Partners | 1.4 bn | 13.0 | 21.9% | 36.6% | −8.1% | −24% / −35% |
| 74SW.PA74software | 792.7 m | 20.9 | 8.9% | 8.5% | +44.8% | −13% / +41% |
| AUB.PAAubay | 667.4 m | 17.8 | 13.6% | 6.3% | +11.3% | +3% / +45% |
| ASY.PAAssystem | 507.1 m | 69.9 | 2.5% | 1.1% | +7.4% | −19% / −18% |
| ATO.PAAtos Se | 483.0 m | — | -23,400.0% | -17.5% | −16.5% | −45% / −94% |
| ARAMI.PAAramis Group | 298.8 m | 15.0 | 10.0% | 0.8% | +6.3% | −33% / −16% |
| ARVEN.PAArverne Group | 246.1 m | — | -14.0% | -115.3% | +27.0% | +20% / −35% |
| BGO.PACompagnie Chargeurs Invest | 189.4 m | — | -8.6% | -5.7% | −2.9% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALCIS.PACatering International & Services | 145.0 m | 28.4 | 9.3% | 1.9% | +5.8% | +39% / +107% |
| ALCGM.PACegedim | 144.6 m | — | -2.6% | -1.2% | +10.9% | −26% / −49% |
| ATEME.PAAteme | 144.0 m | 151.3 | 2.8% | 1.0% | +2.2% | +82% / +77% |
| ALHEX.PAHexaom | 144.0 m | 6.7 | 9.9% | 2.2% | +13.1% | −32% / +7% |
| ALBON.PACompagnie Lebon | 111.7 m | 16.5 | 4.2% | 8.8% | −17.9% | +6% / +8% |
| ALHYF.PALhyfe | 75.8 m | — | -33.4% | -570.5% | +287.2% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALFER.PASergeferrari Group | 61.5 m | 11.5 | 5.1% | 1.5% | +7.4% | −33% / −27% |
| ABEO.PAAbeo | 60.8 m | 7.3 | 6.9% | 3.0% | +12.6% | −13% / −54% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TKO.PA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Tikehau Capital is a European alternative asset manager with credit, real assets, capital markets strategies and private equity as business lines, plus a proprietary investment portfolio. The group focuses its investments mainly on Europe, in a context of geopolitical fragmentation and shifting allocations, which may support its relevance for institutional and retail investors 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Recurring revenue model, largely based on management fees, with a solid balance sheet and an investment grade rating.
- Diversification across four business lines and several asset classes, which reduces dependence on a single market.
- Alignment of interests, through the group's significant investment in its own strategies and governance with independent members.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on continuous capital raising can become sensitive to market cycle changes and investor perception.
- Exposure to private credit and real estate can bring valuation and refinancing risks in periods of stress.
- Balance-sheet investment activity exposes own capital to the results of illiquid assets.
Opportunities
- Rebalancing of allocations towards Europe could attract capital to strategies centred on the continent.
- Opening of private markets to individuals could widen the client base through insurers and digital platforms.
- Integration with Sofidy could create a stronger and more understandable real estate platform for clients.
Threats
- Tensions in private credit and high debt could reduce the quality of portfolio assets.
- Geopolitical fragmentation may complicate capital flows and cross-border investment strategies.
- Intense competition for investor capital could pressure margins and management fees.
Risks
- Market risk on assets under managementhigh
Fee revenue depends on the level of assets managed. A market correction could reduce these assets and the related revenue.
- Private credit riskhigh
Rising tensions in private credit could affect recoveries and the valuation of financing portfolios.
- Real estate riskmedium
The real assets activity exposes the group to the evolution of office demand and property prices, especially in leveraged funds.
- Liquidity risk of proprietary investmentsmedium
The proprietary investment portfolio includes assets that are hard to sell quickly, which could limit financial flexibility if markets deteriorate.
- Sofidy integration risklow
Integrating a new real estate platform may generate costs and operational difficulties if the planned synergies do not materialise as expected.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If Europe continues to gain weight in investor allocations, the group, with its majority exposure to the continent, could benefit from a steadier flow of capital.
- Recurring management fee revenue offers a relatively stable base, and a balance sheet with solid equity can support growth in uncertain periods.
- The opening of private markets to individuals could bring new investor categories and additional demand for the group's products.
What would break the thesis
- If tensions in private credit intensify, value losses in credit portfolios and capital withdrawals from the group's strategies could follow.
- The management activity depends on continuous capital raising, and a fall in net inflows could directly reduce fee revenue.
- Strong competition from global groups could limit the group's ability to maintain favourable terms for clients and high margins.
What to watch
- Evolution of net inflows and assets under managementQ1 2027
- Progress of the Sofidy integration and announced synergies2027
- Quality of the private credit portfolio and level of lossesnext annual report
- Pace of launches of funds aimed at retail investors2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Tikehau Capital manages alternative assets for financial institutions, public bodies, private companies and individuals, investing in financing solutions for businesses. At the end of 2025 the group managed a total of 52.8 billion euros, with 3.1 billion euros of equity and an investment grade rating 1. Its asset management activity has four business lines, and its own investments are made both in its own strategies and within its ecosystem 1.
The economic model relies on recurring revenue: nearly 95 % of asset management revenue comes from management fees, and about 70 % of the proprietary portfolio is invested in the group's own strategies 1. Alignment of interests is a stated principle, the group being controlled by its management and overseen by a supervisory board with 50 % independent members 1.
In 2025 the group raised net inflows of 8 billion euros and announced a rapprochement with Sofidy to create a unified real estate platform 1. The company says the opening of private markets to a wider public, through partnerships with insurers and digital platforms, has accelerated 1.
Segments
Credit
The credit line covers direct lending, corporate lending, CLOs in Europe and the United States, secondary private debt, Tactical Strategies and real estate debt. Assets under management in the line stood at 24.5 billion euros at 31 December 2025, or 46 % of the total 1.
Real assets
The real assets activity covers commercial and office real estate through Tikehau IM and Sofidy, as well as infrastructure in North America. Assets under management stood at 14.3 billion euros at 31 December 2025, representing 27 % of the total 1.
Capital markets strategies and private equity
Capital markets strategies include bond management and diversified equity strategies through open-ended funds, with 6.2 billion euros under management. Private equity managed 7.9 billion euros, investing directly in mostly unlisted companies 1.
Market context
The group operates in the global alternative asset management market, where capital is increasingly concentrated in the United States and allocations are gradually rebalancing towards Europe. The company cites a historic discount in European valuations, less indebted companies and an unprecedented post-war budget impulse as factors that could support investor interest 1.
Private markets are gradually opening to retail investors through solutions developed with insurers and digital platforms. If this trend consolidates, it could widen the client base of alternative managers, although the company notes the need for close attention to the match between assets and liabilities 1.
Trends
- Rebalancing of geographic allocationstailwind
After years of concentration of investments in the United States, investors are looking at geographic alternatives, and Europe could benefit from this rebalancing 1.
- Geopolitical fragmentationmixed
European rearmament, militarisation of value chains and the reshaping of monetary spheres mark the end of a linear financial integration cycle and impose a new discipline on investors 1.
- Opening of private markets to individualstailwind
Private markets, long reserved for institutional investors, are becoming accessible to the public through insurers and digital platforms, which could expand the investor base 1.
- Pressure on private credit and public debtheadwind
The company points to rising tensions in private credit, post-Covid debt and a high level of US public debt, factors that could affect financing conditions 1.
Competitive position
Tikehau Capital competes with global alternative asset managers active in private credit, real estate and private equity. The company supports its position through independence, an own-capital model aligned with clients and an extended European presence, but the sources do not detail its market share.
Competition is felt in attracting capital from institutional and retail investors as private markets open up. The group's declared advantage lies in the sophistication of its tailored solutions and its presence in several financial centres 1.
- BlackstoneBX
Global alternative asset manager with private credit, real estate and private equity.
- Apollo Global ManagementAPO
Alternative asset manager active in private credit and financing solutions for companies.
- KKRKKR
Global private equity, credit and infrastructure group competing for the same institutional investors.
- Ares ManagementARES
Alternative manager focused on private credit, active in direct lending to companies.
News & filings
In the press
- France's Tikehau, Natixis look to Asia as US data center boom raises risksNikkei Asia · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Private Credit Firm Tikehau Is Said to Seek Strategic InvestorBloomberg Markets · 20 Oct 2026 · EN
- Tikehau: Private Markets Entering a More Selective PhaseBloomberg Markets · 08 Oct 2026 · EN
- Tikehau's Flamarion Says Transaction Are Becoming 'Smaller'Bloomberg Markets · 09 Sept 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202524 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
- Annual report 202315 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Tikehau Capital · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.