olivLaw · European equity research
UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM.HE
Finland · Nasdaq Helsinki · Vertical: Listed companies from Finland
UPM-Kymmene Oyj is a Finnish forest industry group producing paper, pulp, label materials and energy, with a focus on renewable, recyclable and fossil-free products. Its 2025 annual report shows that demand for bio-based products and CO2-free energy is an important factor in its strategy, while the decline of graphic paper remains a pressure. Dependence on a few raw materials, such as wood, is a significant risk.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM.HE) stock was 22.68 EUR (+0.11% on the day), with market capitalisation 12.0 bn EUR, P/E 24.9 on diluted EPS of 0.91 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 6.61%, beta 0.62, 52-week range 21.90–27.75 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 36.9
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 21.64 – 26.27
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.22 · band width 19.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 24.58 / 24.85
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.65 / -0.46
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −6.2% | −0.6% | −5.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −3.4% | −4.2% | +0.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | −10.8% | +4.3% | −15.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | −8.5% | +7.5% | −16.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | −2.0% | +9.9% | −12.0 pp | −1.2% |
| 3 years | −31.6% | +49.8% | −81.4 pp | +6.8% |
| 5 years | −26.6% | +42.8% | −69.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 27.2, median 32.4, max 46.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10.5 bn | 10.3 bn | 9.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −1.2% | −6.6% |
| Net income | 388.0 m | 436.0 m | 480.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +12.4% | +10.1% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.73 | 0.82 | 0.91 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +12.3% | +11.0% |
| net % | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 715.0 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 3.6 bn EUR
- Net debt
- 2.9 bn EUR
- Equity
- 10.3 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 17.5 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.35x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 4.4%
- ROA
- 2.6%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10.5 bn | 10.3 bn | 9.7 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 608.0 m | 604.0 m | 749.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 464.0 m | 500.0 m | 690.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 71.0 m | 37.0 m | 200.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 388.0 m | 436.0 m | 480.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.73 | 0.82 | 0.91 | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 1.50 | 1.50 | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 632.0 m | 892.0 m | 715.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 1.8 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.5 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.9 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 7.1 bn | 7.1 bn | 6.5 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 283.0 m | 174.0 m | 264.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 715.0 m | 580.0 m | 554.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 18.5 bn | 19.1 bn | 17.5 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.8 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 3.1 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.6 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 6.9 bn | 7.6 bn | 7.2 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 11.5 bn | 11.5 bn | 10.3 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 531.5 m | 531.7 m | 527.5 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 3 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 12.0 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
27% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 7.49 – 27.82 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E7.49 – 16.83 (Mid 10.10)23 companies used · median multiple 11.1x · quartiles 8.2x – 18.5xALMA.HE, APETIT.HE, ASPO.HE, ATRAV.HE, BIOBV.HE, CAPMAN.HE, CONSTI.HE, DIGIA.HE, ELEAV.HE, ELISA.HE, ENENTO.HE, ETTE.HE, FORTUM.HE, FSECURE.HE, GLA1V.HE, GRK.HE, HARVIA.HE, ICP1V.HE, ILKKA.HE, INVEST.HE, KALMAR.HE, KAMUX.HE, KCR.HE
- Dividend discount (DDM)20.40 – 27.82 (Mid 23.54)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 3.8% | 24 (vs peers) | 38% |
| Net margin · Quality | 5.0% | 54 (vs peers) | 23% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 24.9x | 29 (vs peers) | 38% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality35/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial29/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
UPM-KYMMENE OYJ (UPM.HE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 9.7 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth -6.6%; net margin 5.0%; ROE 4.5%.
The estimated value range is 13.95–22.33 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 16.82 EUR, the price of 22.68 EUR leaves a potential of -25.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -34.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 3.8%
- P/E (TTM): 24.9x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Finland · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FORTUM.HEFortum Oyj | 20.8 bn | 27.2 | 8.7% | 15.3% | −14.0% | +32% / +81% |
| UPM.HEUpm-Kymmene Oyj | 12.0 bn | 24.9 | 4.5% | 5.0% | −6.6% | −4% / −29% |
| ELISA.HEElisa Oyj | 5.6 bn | 16.3 | 27.0% | 15.2% | +3.0% | −8% / −15% |
| KALMAR.HEKalmar Oyj | 2.4 bn | 14.7 | 24.1% | 9.4% | +1.2% | +0% / unavailable |
| KCR.HEKonecranes Oyj | 2.2 bn | 5.6 | 20.3% | 9.5% | −0.9% | −4% / +134% |
| EXEL.HEExel Composites Oyj | 1.8 bn | — | -18.5% | -5.3% | +3.6% | +163% / +74% |
| BITTI.HEBittium Oyj | 1.2 bn | 55.8 | 17.5% | 17.9% | +40.1% | +73% / +603% |
| ALMA.HEAlma Media Oyj | 1.2 bn | 21.2 | 23.0% | 16.9% | +4.6% | +9% / +57% |
| FIA1S.HEFinnair Oyj | 927.4 m | 50.4 | 2.9% | 0.6% | +1.9% | +54% / +22% |
| GRK.HEGRK Infra Oyj | 788.5 m | 18.3 | 27.8% | 4.9% | +19.7% | +52% / unavailable |
| HARVIA.HEHarvia Oyj | 768.7 m | 29.3 | 21.0% | 13.3% | +13.5% | −1% / +64% |
| ATRAV.HEAtria Oyj | 451.7 m | 11.1 | 9.8% | 2.2% | +3.3% | +13% / +57% |
| ANORA.HEAnora Group Oyj | 317.6 m | 57.8 | 1.4% | 0.8% | −4.9% | +26% / +11% |
| CAPMAN.HECapMan Oyj | 300.2 m | 23.1 | 6.8% | 20.9% | +9.4% | −8% / −20% |
| ICP1V.HEIncap Oyj | 261.0 m | 18.7 | 10.4% | 6.5% | −6.7% | −3% / +37% |
| FSECURE.HEF-Secure Oyj | 243.7 m | 10.9 | 43.4% | 15.3% | −0.4% | −17% / −23% |
| ASPO.HEAspo Oyj | 219.4 m | 9.3 | 15.4% | 5.0% | +2.1% | +2% / +9% |
| ETTE.HEEtteplan Oyj | 173.7 m | 16.4 | 8.8% | 2.9% | +0.1% | −27% / −51% |
| DIGIA.HEDigia Oyj | 131.6 m | 10.5 | 14.5% | 5.9% | +5.5% | −16% / −12% |
| ILKKA.HEIlkka Oyj | 93.8 m | 8.1 | 6.2% | 30.8% | +22.6% | +0% / +21% |
| CONSTI.HEConsti Oyj | 77.4 m | 11.6 | 15.3% | 2.0% | +2.9% | −8% / −6% |
| APETIT.HEApetit Oyj | 75.6 m | 8.4 | 8.2% | 5.4% | +3.1% | −14% / −3% |
| ESENSE.HEEnersense International Oyj | 74.9 m | 74.7 | 3.1% | 0.4% | −27.7% | +12% / +9% |
| CTH1V.HEComponenta Oyj | 66.1 m | 324.0 | 0.8% | 0.2% | −4.6% | +49% / +182% |
| KAMUX.HEKamux Oyj | 47.4 m | 10.3 | 4.2% | 0.5% | +0.8% | −40% / −77% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for UPM.HE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 12.13 Total return -44% · Per year -44% | 21.55 Total return -1% · Per year -1% | 32.60 Total return 48% · Per year 48% |
| 3 years | 9.63 Total return -50% · Per year -21% | 19.45 Total return -3% · Per year -1% | 32.60 Total return 58% · Per year 16% |
| 5 years | 7.65 Total return -55% · Per year -15% | 17.55 Total return -5% · Per year -1% | 32.60 Total return 67% · Per year 11% |
- Exit P/E± 4.86
- Net margin± 3.40
- Annual revenue growth± 3.07
- Annual dilution± 0.29
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
UPM-Kymmene Oyj is a Finnish forest industry group producing paper, pulp, label materials and energy, with a focus on renewable, recyclable and fossil-free products. Its 2025 annual report shows that demand for bio-based products and CO2-free energy is an important factor in its strategy, while the decline of graphic paper remains a pressure. Dependence on a few raw materials, such as wood, is a significant risk.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a diversified customer base with no dependence on any single major customer, and holds a stake in CO2-free energy.
- The business portfolio offers flexibility against climate and regulatory risks, according to the report.
- The focus on bio-based and recyclable products matches market trends sought by customers.
Weaknesses
- Revenue depends heavily on graphic paper, whose demand is declining in mature markets.
- The company depends on a few main resources, such as wood, energy and water.
- Product prices are volatile due to the cyclical nature of the markets and intense competition.
Opportunities
- Demand for CO2-free energy and bio-based products could grow in the coming years.
- Greater efficiency in using main resources could provide a competitive advantage.
- Collaboration with suppliers could create business value through supply chain development.
Threats
- Trade tariffs and geopolitical tensions can affect demand, prices and raw material costs.
- Climate change and forest diseases can reduce the availability and acceptability of wood.
- Stricter environmental regulation could increase compliance costs or fines.
Risks
- Economic and geopolitical uncertaintyhigh
Trade tariffs, the war in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East can affect demand, energy costs and logistics.
- Cyclical and competitive marketshigh
Imbalances between supply and demand could cause product prices to fluctuate significantly.
- Changes in consumer behaviormedium
Substitute products and digitalization can reduce demand for graphic paper.
- Regulation and the OL3 riskmedium
Legislative changes and possible problems at the OL3 nuclear plant could affect costs and financial performance.
- Dependence on major customerslow
Losing major customers could have a material effect, especially if they gain bargaining power through consolidation.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand for renewable products and CO2-free energy keeps growing, the company's bio-based portfolio could offset the decline of graphic paper.
- The stake in OL3 and in fossil-free energy could strengthen the company's position on energy costs.
- Customer diversification and portfolio flexibility could limit the impact of market shocks.
What would break the thesis
- If demand for graphic paper falls faster than expected, pressure on volumes and prices could increase.
- Dependence on wood and other main resources could lead to higher costs or production interruptions.
- Geopolitical and trade risks could hinder operations in a country or region, which could affect results.
What to watch
- Evolution of demand for graphic paper in mature markets2026
- Performance of the OL3 unit and TVO's production costs2026
- Impact of trade tariffs on sales and costs2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
UPM-Kymmene Oyj operates mainly on the basis of forest resources, and most of its revenue comes from graphic and specialty papers, pulp and label materials 1. The company mainly produces raw materials and intermediate products and does not sell directly to consumers, as its products are used by other manufacturers 1. The group also holds energy assets, including an indirect stake in the OL3 nuclear unit in Finland through Pohjolan Voima Oyj 1.
Segments
Graphic and specialty papers, pulp and label materials
This area accounts for the majority of the group's revenue according to the annual report and is exposed to pressure from declining demand for graphic paper in mature markets 1.
Energy and bio-based products
The company has interests in CO2-free energy and in renewable or recyclable products, which could become a source of growth if demand for alternatives to fossil-based products continues to rise 1.
Market context
UPM's product prices are determined by the balance between supply and demand, and the markets it operates in are cyclical and highly competitive, which can lead to significant fluctuations in prices and margins 1. Demand for graphic paper in mature markets is forecast to decline, while demand for renewable and recyclable products is growing 1.
Trends
- Declining demand for graphic paperheadwind
Digitalization and e-commerce have reduced demand for graphic paper, which could increase pressure on volumes and selling prices 1.
- Demand for renewable and recyclable productstailwind
The company expects a growing need for renewable and recyclable solutions, which may drive demand growth for most of its products 1.
- Changing regulatory policiesmixed
Regulatory changes and subsidies in the EU can distort raw material and energy markets, but could also strengthen UPM's position in bio-based products 1.
- Climate change effects on wood supplymixed
Extreme weather can affect wood harvesting and hydropower availability, while sustainably managed forests can support long-term growth 1.
Competitive position
According to the annual report, UPM competes mainly with several large multinational paper and forest product companies, as well as with numerous regional or more specialized competitors 1. Competitive price pressure can affect operating margins 1.
- Large multinational paper and forest product companies
The source refers to them generically without naming them, so no US ticker can be given.
- Regional or specialized producers
Regional and specialized competitors are mentioned only generically in the report, without specific identities.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202504 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202406 Mar 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / UPM-Kymmene Oyj · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.