olivLaw · European equity research
VGP NV VGP.BR
Belgium · Euronext Brussels · ISIN BE0003878957 · Vertical: Listed companies from Belgium
VGP NV is a European developer and investor in logistics and industrial real estate, active mainly in Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy and Portugal. The 2021 annual report shows a dynamic investment market, with logistics as the segment with the strongest momentum, which makes the company's position relevant given demand for warehouses. Total transaction volume in Germany reached 111.1 billion EUR in 2021.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, VGP NV (VGP.BR) stock was 66.50 EUR (+1.53% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.4 bn EUR, P/E 2.1 on diluted EPS of 31.41 EUR over the last 12 months, beta 0.82, 52-week range 60.60–111.00 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 58.5
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 59.96 – 65.49
- above the upper band · %B 1.18 · band width 8.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 68.27 / 83.67
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -1.05 / -1.94
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +2.5% | +0.4% | +2.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | −20.2% | −3.3% | −16.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | −26.3% | +4.0% | −30.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | −32.5% | +8.1% | −40.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | −33.8% | +10.7% | −44.5 pp | +6.3% |
| 3 years | −20.4% | +50.1% | −70.4 pp | −6.5% |
| 5 years | −69.5% | +43.6% | −113.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 6.1, median 7.4, max 7.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 26.0 m | 29.6 m | 44.3 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +13.5% | +49.7% |
| Net income | 205.6 m | 370.9 m | 650.1 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +80.4% | +75.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 11.06 | 18.58 | 31.41 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +68.0% | +69.1% |
| net % | 789.7% | 1,255.0% | 1,468.9% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2021 · 31 Dec 2021
- Cash
- 222.2 m EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 2.2 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 3.9 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 3.93x
- ROE
- 37.3%
- ROA
- 21.3%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 26.0 m | 29.6 m | 44.3 m | esef· 19 Apr 2022verified |
| Operating income | 252.4 m | 419.4 m | 776.6 m | esef· 19 Apr 2022verified |
| Interest expense | 19.8 m | 17.9 m | 25.0 m | esef· 19 Apr 2022verified |
| Pre-tax income | 238.1 m | 410.8 m | 763.9 m | esef· 19 Apr 2022verified |
| Income tax | 32.5 m | 39.9 m | 113.8 m | esef· 19 Apr 2022verified |
| Net income | 205.6 m | 370.9 m | 650.1 m | esef· 19 Apr 2022verified |
| Diluted EPS | 11.06 | 18.58 | 31.41 | esef· 19 Apr 2022verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 176.1 m | 222.4 m | 222.2 m | esef· 19 Apr 2022verified |
| Receivables | 28.8 m | 44.8 m | 148.0 m | esef· 19 Apr 2022verified |
| Current assets | 374.6 m | 369.5 m | 872.1 m | esef· 19 Apr 2022verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 5.3 m | 16.9 m | 32.1 m | esef· 19 Apr 2022verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 46.0 k | 557.0 k | 1.0 m | esef· 19 Apr 2022verified |
| Total assets | 1.6 bn | 2.2 bn | 3.9 bn | esef· 19 Apr 2022verified |
| Current liabilities | 112.5 m | 118.9 m | 221.8 m | esef· 19 Apr 2022verified |
| Total liabilities | 924.6 m | 922.0 m | 1.7 bn | esef· 19 Apr 2022verified |
| Equity | 699.8 m | 1.3 bn | 2.2 bn | esef· 19 Apr 2022verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 18.6 m | 20.0 m | 20.7 m | esef· 19 Apr 2022derived |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.4 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
27% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 333.58 – 742.04 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E333.58 – 742.04 (Mid 483.17)24 companies used · median multiple 15.4x · quartiles 10.6x – 23.6xACKB.BR, AGS.BR, AZE.BR, BANI.BR, BAR.BR, BEKB.BR, BELYS.BR, BPOST.BR, CAMB.BR, CFEB.BR, COLR.BR, DECB.BR, DEME.BR, DIE.BR, ECONB.BR, ELI.BR, EVS.BR, FAGR.BR, FLOB.BR, FOU.BR, IBAB.BR, JEN.BR, KIN.BR, MELE.BR
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 1,468.9% | 100 (vs peers) | 23% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 31.1x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 23% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 3.9x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 2.1x | 96 (vs peers) | 38% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial96/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
VGP (VGP.BR). Latest full fiscal year: 2021; data up to 2021-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 44.3 m EUR in 2021; YoY growth 49.7%; net margin 1,468.9%; ROE 37.3%.
The estimated value range is 333.58–742.04 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 483.17 EUR, the price of 66.50 EUR leaves a potential of 626.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 86.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 1,468.9%
- Interest coverage: 31.1x
- Current ratio: 3.9x
- P/E (TTM): 2.1x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Belgium · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELI.BRElia Group | 11.9 bn | 23.3 | 9.6% | 13.6% | −2.0% | +28% / +34% |
| LOTB.BRLotus Bakeries | 11.4 bn | 66.4 | 20.9% | 12.7% | +10.0% | +82% / +76% |
| GBLB.BRGroupe Bruxelles Lambert - Groep Brussel Lambert | 10.6 bn | 82.4 | 0.8% | 2.1% | +1.0% | +6% / +9% |
| DIE.BRD'ieteren Group | 9.7 bn | 23.2 | — | 5.3% | −1.5% | +22% / +16% |
| ACKB.BRAckermans & Van Haaren | 8.8 bn | 22.2 | 8.4% | 7.6% | +18.6% | +22% / +77% |
| COLR.BRColruyt Group | 4.4 bn | 14.6 | 9.4% | 2.9% | +3.1% | +12% / −6% |
| DEME.BRDeme Group | 4.2 bn | 12.2 | 15.5% | 8.3% | +1.3% | +21% / +72% |
| AZE.BRAzelis Group | 2.9 bn | 16.1 | 6.6% | 4.3% | +1.5% | +29% / −42% |
| MELE.BRMelexis | 2.1 bn | 12.4 | 30.7% | 18.4% | −3.3% | −1% / −38% |
| BEKB.BRNV Bekaert SA | 2.1 bn | 30.7 | 3.1% | 1.8% | −6.4% | +10% / −5% |
| FAGR.BRFagron | 1.8 bn | 22.2 | 16.7% | 9.2% | +14.3% | +15% / +40% |
| VGP.BRVgp | 1.4 bn | 2.1 | 37.3% | 1,468.9% | +49.7% | −36% / −30% |
| KIN.BRKinepolis Group | 1.4 bn | 33.9 | 19.3% | 7.0% | −4.5% | +62% / +11% |
| JEN.BRJensen Group | 706.9 m | 17.2 | 15.1% | 9.1% | +13.3% | +28% / +111% |
| BAR.BRBarco | 563.5 m | 9.1 | 7.9% | 6.7% | −9.9% | −48% / −59% |
| IBAB.BRIon Beam Applications | 487.2 m | 39.5 | 10.7% | 2.1% | +24.5% | +48% / +52% |
| DECB.BRDeceuninck | 341.3 m | 24.6 | 4.3% | 1.7% | −4.5% | +8% / +8% |
| CAMB.BRCampine | 272.3 m | 12.2 | 28.6% | 6.1% | +13.4% | −12% / +161% |
| CFEB.BRAannemingsmaatschappij Cfe | 266.8 m | 11.1 | 9.9% | 2.0% | −5.3% | +22% / +48% |
| EVS.BREvs Broadcast Equipment | 245.9 m | 6.0 | 20.8% | 21.7% | +14.3% | −49% / −36% |
| BPOST.BRBpost | 229.8 m | 3.5 | 6.3% | 1.5% | −2.6% | −39% / −75% |
| ECONB.BREconocom Group | 210.7 m | 40.5 | 1.2% | 0.2% | +4.3% | −1% / −36% |
| IMMO.BRImmobel | 172.2 m | — | -7.4% | -25.2% | −32.8% | −24% / −36% |
| MONNI.BRKeyware Technologies | 171.0 m | 162.0 | 3.5% | 4.5% | −5.9% | −5% / −17% |
| HYSG.BRHybrid Software Group PLC | 121.3 m | — | -2.5% | -5.5% | +7.2% | −4% / +13% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for VGP.BR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 43.46 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 76.47 Total return 15% · Per year 15% | 114.71 Total return 72% · Per year 72% |
| 3 years | 51.55 Total return -22% · Per year -8% | 101.14 Total return 52% · Per year 15% | 165.19 Total return 148% · Per year 35% |
| 5 years | 61.14 Total return -8% · Per year -2% | 133.76 Total return 101% · Per year 15% | 237.87 Total return 258% · Per year 29% |
- Exit P/E± 25.28
- Net margin± 17.70
- Annual revenue growth± 13.20
- Annual dilution± 1.49
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
VGP NV is a European developer and investor in logistics and industrial real estate, active mainly in Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy and Portugal. The 2021 annual report shows a dynamic investment market, with logistics as the segment with the strongest momentum, which makes the company's position relevant given demand for warehouses. Total transaction volume in Germany reached 111.1 billion EUR in 2021 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Presence in several European markets, diversifying geographic exposure.
- Focus on logistics, the segment described as most dynamic in the report.
- Positioning in markets with strong demand for modern storage space.
Weaknesses
- The analysed source does not provide full financial figures for the company in this extract.
- Exposure to energy and construction cost increases, highlighted in the report.
- Falling yields could compress profit margins on new acquisitions.
Opportunities
- Growth in e-commerce and third party logistics could support demand.
- Modernising warehouses through automation may generate new projects.
- Production moving closer to consumer markets, noted in the report, could create additional demand.
Threats
- Intense competition for logistics assets may raise acquisition prices.
- Inflation and rising interest rates could affect financing costs.
- A price bubble risk, although the report considers it unlikely.
Risks
- Pressure on acquisition pricesmedium
Competition for logistics assets could reduce returns on new investments.
- Energy costsmedium
Higher energy prices could raise operating and construction costs.
- Higher interest rateshigh
If interest rates rise, project financing could become more expensive.
- Weaker demandlow
If consumption slows, demand for logistics space could fall.
- Labour shortageslow
Difficulty finding warehouse staff could push tenants toward automation.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Structural demand for logistics, supported by e-commerce, could sustain business activity.
- A shortage of quality product in the market could keep rents high.
- Presence in several European countries provides a diversified base.
What would break the thesis
- If interest rates rise, the cost of financing could weigh on returns.
- Strong competition for assets could limit acquisition opportunities.
What to watch
- Evolution of prime logistics yields2022
- Level of interest rates and financing costs2022
- Trends in energy prices and inflation2022
- Next annual report of the companynext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
According to the annual report for fiscal 2021, VGP NV operates in logistics and industrial real estate, with presence across several European countries. The document includes market analysis for Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy and Portugal, which points to a strategy focused on distribution, production and storage space 1. The source does not provide full financial figures for the company in this extract.
Segments
Logistics and industrial
The logistics segment is described in the report as the most dynamic in the property market, with growing capital directed to distribution, production and storage space 1. The report cites e-commerce, healthcare and life science as drivers.
Offices and other assets
The report also covers premium offices, described as the most expensive investment product, though demand there is less linear than in logistics 1. This segment is presented by national market, without detailed financial separation.
Market context
The European property investment market described in the report was supported in 2021 by international capital and a lack of product, especially in logistics. In Spain, prime logistics yields fell below 4 percent, the lowest level ever recorded for the sector 1. The analysis suggests prices could keep rising if supply stays limited.
Trends
- Warehouse automationmixed
The report points to rising demand for automation and robotics in warehouses, which could change building specifications and power supply requirements.
- E-commerce growthtailwind
E-commerce remains a key driver of demand for logistics space, according to the report, supported by growth in express parcel delivery and third party logistics.
- Rising inflation and energy costsheadwind
High energy prices and inflation across several European countries, noted in the report, could slow consumption and construction costs.
- Falling prime yieldsmixed
Prime logistics yields fell in several countries, indicating strong investor interest but higher entry prices.
Competitive position
The report does not name VGP NV's competitors explicitly. The logistics investment market is described as contested by European and international funds, which points to intense competition for quality assets 1.
- International property investment funds
European and global investors competing for the same logistics assets, as described in the report 1.
- Local logistics developers
Local players in the analysed markets, mentioned in the context of limited product supply 1.
- Institutional investors
Investors seeking stable returns from logistics buildings, described as a driver of price pressure 1.
- Premium office portfolios
Players active in the office segment of major cities, competing for capital 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202119 Apr 2022
- Annual report 202018 May 2021
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2021-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / VGP NV · 31 Dec 2021
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.