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olivLaw · US equity research

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. ALRM

Services-Prepackaged Software · SIC 7372 · Vertical: Services-Prepackaged Software (SIC 7372)

67.96USD+3.82% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Alarm.com is the leading platform for intelligently connected properties, delivering security, video, energy and utility services through a network of service provider partners. The company reported SaaS and license revenue of $689.4 million in fiscal 2025 and raised its 2026 guidance after SaaS growth in the second quarter, a trend that could matter if the pace holds.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) stock was 67.96 USD (+3.82% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.3 bn USD, P/E 30.8 on diluted EPS of 2.21 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 0.79, 52-week range 42.13–67.96 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 277.7 m USD (+9.2% YoY), net income of 24.2 m USD (−29.3% YoY), diluted EPS 0.48 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
3.3 bn USD
shares as of 30 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
30.8
Diluted EPS TTM 2.21 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
3.25%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
0.00%
DPS 12m 0.00
Beta (2y)
0.79
Volatility (1y) 30%
52-week range
42.1367.96

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
78.5
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
52.55 – 69.68
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.90 · band width 28.0%
SMA 50 / 200
57.56 / 50.33
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
2.95 / 2.40
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+20.8%−1.1%+21.9 pp—
3 months+19.9%−0.5%+20.4 pp—
6 months+49.6%+4.4%+45.2 pp—
Year to date+33.2%+12.3%+20.9 pp—
1 year+40.1%+13.5%+26.6 pp−1.5%
3 years+29.9%+76.4%−46.5 pp+3.5%
5 years−24.1%+63.7%−87.8 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−20.7%
18 Dec 2025 → 12 May 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−52.9%
08 Nov 2021 → 12 May 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−5.4%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
277.7 m USD
+9.2% YoY
Net income
24.2 m USD
−29.3% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.48
−23.8% YoY
net / operating
8.7% / 11.7%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue240.5 m242.2 m238.8 m254.3 m256.4 m261.7 m265.2 m277.7 m
Cost of revenue84.7 m83.6 m78.2 m87.5 m87.6 m89.0 m90.5 m95.7 m
Research & development62.2 m62.0 m68.4 m69.1 m66.6 m66.2 m72.1 m71.0 m
Operating income33.2 m30.9 m29.6 m32.0 m37.0 m34.9 m31.6 m32.5 m
Depreciation & amortisation7.6 m7.1 m7.0 m7.5 m7.8 m8.5 m9.1 m9.0 m
Interest expense4.3 m4.3 m4.3 m4.3 m4.3 m4.3 m3.7 m3.5 m
Pre-tax income43.2 m39.1 m35.0 m39.3 m47.5 m44.7 m29.0 m31.1 m
Income tax6.7 m8.9 m7.3 m5.5 m15.2 m9.7 m5.9 m7.7 m
Net income36.7 m30.3 m27.7 m34.2 m35.1 m34.6 m23.4 m24.2 m
Diluted EPS0.670.560.520.630.650.61 ≈0.470.48
Operating cash flow77.3 m ≈56.3 m24.1 m22.7 m ≈70.6 m ≈35.9 m50.6 m41.9 m ≈
Capex2.8 m ≈2.3 m6.1 m4.6 m ≈4.8 m ≈860.0 k912.0 k4.8 m ≈
Share repurchases0 ≈05.1 m5.1 m ≈12.3 m ≈19.1 m20.0 m25.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 21 percentile of its own 39-quarter history (min 18.3, median 51.7, max 205.0; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue420.5 m502.4 m618.0 m749.0 m842.6 m881.7 m939.8 m1.0 bn
Revenue YoY+24.1%+19.5%+23.0%+21.2%+12.5%+4.6%+6.6%+7.6%
Net income21.5 m53.5 m76.7 m51.2 m55.6 m80.3 m122.5 m131.6 m
Net income YoY−26.4%+148.7%+43.2%−33.2%+8.7%+44.4%+52.5%+7.4%
Diluted EPS0.431.061.531.011.071.532.292.46
Diluted EPS YoY−27.1%+146.5%+44.3%−34.0%+5.9%+43.0%+49.7%+7.4%
net %5.1%10.7%12.4%6.8%6.6%9.1%13.0%13.0%
Free cash flow49.7 m27.8 m85.9 m92.1 m28.3 m128.4 m196.3 m137.0 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
960.6 m USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
848.2 m USD
Total assets
2.1 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
1.92x
ROE
16.7%
ROA
6.3%
FCF margin
13.6%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
881.7 m
2024
939.8 m
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
325.2 m
2024
326.1 m
2025
342.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
556.5 m ≈
2024
613.7 m ≈
2025
668.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived

Research & development
2023
245.1 m
2024
255.9 m
2025
270.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
66.8 m
2024
108.5 m
2025
133.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
31.4 m
2024
29.1 m
2025
30.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
98.3 m ≈
2024
137.7 m ≈
2025
164.5 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
3.4 m
2024
11.4 m
2025
17.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
97.8 m
2024
141.8 m
2025
166.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
17.5 m
2024
19.3 m
2025
37.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
80.3 m
2024
122.5 m
2025
131.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
1.53
2024
2.29
2025
2.46

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
54.6 m
2024
58.0 m
2025
58.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
697.0 m
2024
1.2 bn
2025
960.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
130.6 m
2024
126.1 m
2025
141.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
96.1 m
2024
87.4 m
2025
94.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
956.8 m
2024
1.5 bn
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
54.2 m
2024
63.2 m
2025
64.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
154.5 m
2024
154.2 m
2025
225.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
78.6 m
2024
63.2 m
2025
99.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
1.4 bn
2024
2.0 bn
2025
2.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
39.0 m
2024
65.6 m
2025
22.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2021verified

Current liabilities
2023
175.3 m
2024
188.8 m
2025
663.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
714.7 m
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
688.5 m †
2024
726.5 m †
2025
848.2 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
136.0 m
2024
206.4 m
2025
153.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
7.5 m
2024
10.1 m
2025
16.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
128.4 m ≈
2024
196.3 m ≈
2025
137.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-26.0 m
2024
-24.7 m
2025
-358.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-31.9 m
2024
346.4 m
2025
-55.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
27.3 m
2024
75.0 m
2025
41.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
7.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
6.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
10.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
23.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
7.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
33.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
11.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
7.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
32.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
10.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
-30.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
65.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
16.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
12.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
11.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
17.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
14.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
6.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
9.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
8.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
5.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
3.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
199.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
11.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
187.7 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
160.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
116.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
49 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
43 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
3.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
28.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
30.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
3.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
3.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
3.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
17.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
5.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
0.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
2.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

67.96 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 3.3 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
3.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
30.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
3.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
14.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
11.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
7.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

32/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 30 Jul 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 06 Aug 2026
verified 1894derived 132

Score by group

77% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: EV/Salesunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Services-Prepackaged Software (SIC 7372)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
Gross margin · Quality65.8%65 (on a fixed band)14%
EBIT margin · Quality12.8%69 (vs peers)11%
FCF margin · Quality17.7%71 (on a fixed band)11%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth6.3%25 (on a fixed band)22%
Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth7.6%16 (vs peers)11%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet5.0x100 (on a fixed band)8%
EV/Sales · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation5.6%100 (on a fixed band)17%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns2.3%72 (on a fixed band)6%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Growth22/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality68/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns72/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

ALARM.COM HOLDINGS, INC. (ALRM). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.0 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 7.6%; net margin 11.1%; ROE 14.1%.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF margin: 17.7%
  • Current ratio: 5.0x
  • FCF yield: 5.6%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 2.3%

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 6.3%
  • Revenue growth (YoY): 7.6%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, EV/Sales.

Versus the vertical median

Services-Prepackaged Software (SIC 7372) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
30.8x
vertical median 46.1x
below median (−33.3%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 30.7x
P/S
3.1x
vertical median 6.0x
below median (−47.9%)
P/B
3.9x
vertical median 6.1x
below median (−36.4%)
ROE
14.1%
vertical median 10.5%
above median (+34.3%)
Net margin
11.1%
vertical median 9.4%
above median (+17.1%)
EBIT margin
12.8%
vertical median 7.1%
above median (+81.7%)
Revenue YoY
7.6%
vertical median 17.4%
below median (−56.5%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 1.4x
Dividend yield
0.0%
vertical median 1.3%
below median (−100.0%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
MSFTMicrosoft Corporation4,127.5 bn29.034.2%41.2%+17.8%+13% / +47%
PLTRPalantir Technologies Inc.413.7 bn120.441.2%50.3%+56.2%+2% / +756%
ORCLOracle Corporation374.1 bn19.341.6%26.4%+17.3%−39% / +6%
CRWDCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.246.8 bn1,120.41.3%1.1%+21.7%+89% / +307%
CRMSalesforce, Inc.186.9 bn20.719.4%22.0%+9.6%−1% / −10%
NOWServicenow, Inc.112.9 bn78.111.8%9.4%+20.9%−33% / −21%
SNOWSnowflake Inc.102.5 bn—-48.2%-20.1%+29.2%+16% / +55%
ADBEAdobe Inc.96.7 bn13.961.9%28.0%+10.5%−22% / −59%
INTUIntuit Inc.95.3 bn21.723.6%21.3%+13.9%−44% / −38%
CDNSCadence Design Systems, Inc.90.4 bn65.522.9%22.5%+14.1%+6% / +21%
SNPSSynopsys Inc88.7 bn81.83.7%11.4%+15.1%+11% / −15%
ADSKAutodesk, Inc.56.4 bn35.053.9%21.1%+17.5%−11% / +24%
VEEVVeeva Systems Inc.50.3 bn50.814.4%29.3%+16.3%+29% / +78%
TTWOTake-Two Interactive Software, Inc.39.1 bn—-9.0%-4.8%+18.2%−15% / +32%
RBLXRoblox Corporation35.3 bn—-478.2%-16.5%+35.8%−48% / +25%
TWLOTwilio Inc.33.0 bn26.814.9%21.8%+13.7%+65% / +230%
MDBMongodb, Inc.26.5 bn449.12.0%2.1%+22.8%−1% / −21%
PTCPTC Inc.21.2 bn19.035.1%41.4%+19.2%+11% / +24%
UUnity Software Inc.18.7 bn—-18.9%-29.0%+2.0%−0% / +44%
SSNCSs&C Technologies Holdings, Inc.18.7 bn22.912.7%13.2%+6.6%−7% / +41%
NTNXNutanix, Inc.17.2 bn12.337,460.2%52.8%+12.4%+33% / +48%
TYLTyler Technologies, Inc.16.8 bn53.310.5%13.5%+9.1%−10% / +4%
DOCUDocusign, Inc.15.0 bn49.117.8%9.8%+8.2%+16% / +87%
GWREGuidewire Software, Inc.14.0 bn104.710.5%9.4%+22.7%−21% / +71%
DTDynatrace, Inc.13.4 bn87.06.4%7.4%+18.8%+5% / −13%

1- and 3-year price returns: for ALRM from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
44.22
Total return -35% · Per year -35%
78.12
Total return 15% · Per year 15%
117.58
Total return 73% · Per year 73%
3 years
44.46
Total return -35% · Per year -13%
88.22
Total return 30% · Per year 9%
145.58
Total return 114% · Per year 29%
5 years
44.70
Total return -34% · Per year -8%
99.63
Total return 47% · Per year 8%
180.24
Total return 165% · Per year 22%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 22.06
  • Net margin± 15.44
  • Annual revenue growth± 12.46
  • Annual dilution± 1.30

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Alarm.com is the leading platform for intelligently connected properties, delivering security, video, energy and utility services through a network of service provider partners. The company reported SaaS and license revenue of $689.4 million in fiscal 2025 and raised its 2026 guidance after SaaS growth in the second quarter, a trend that could matter if the pace holds 123.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The platform has a large base of connected devices and a high renewal rate for SaaS revenue, supporting predictable revenue 1.
  • The service provider partner network extends distribution without direct installation investment, a central element of the business model 1.
  • The company raised its 2026 guidance early in the second quarter, a sign of confidence in execution 3.

Weaknesses

  • Reliance on service partners for sales, installation and support limits control over the end customer experience 1.
  • Revenue is seasonal and concentrated in the second and third quarters, making quarterly results volatile 1.
  • Hardware revenue is more exposed to costs and supply chains than SaaS revenue, reducing margin predictability 12.

Opportunities

  • International expansion, given that a small share of revenue comes from outside North America, could add growth if executed well 1.
  • The demand response and virtual power plant market could grow as utilities seek peak flexibility 3.
  • The commercial fire communicator launch could extend the platform into the commercial fire alarm market 3.

Threats

  • A prolonged economic downturn could reduce consumer spending and construction and renovation projects 1.
  • New tariffs on imported products could raise hardware costs and pressure margins 12.
  • Competitors or new entrants could reduce prices and erode the company's market share 1.

Risks

  • Macroeconomic uncertaintyhigh

    Macroeconomic conditions, including inflation and tariffs, could reduce demand for new subscriptions and equipment 12.

  • Product defectshigh

    Software defects or service interruptions could lead to liability and customer loss, since the solutions are tied to life safety 1.

  • Dependence on service partnersmedium

    Partners that install or maintain solutions incorrectly could damage the company's reputation and revenue 1.

  • Quarterly volatilitymedium

    Seasonality and reliance on the second and third quarters can make quarterly results hard to compare 1.

  • Natural disasters and geopoliticslow

    Natural disasters, armed conflict or trade tensions could disrupt suppliers, network operators and sales 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • SaaS and license revenue is growing and the 2026 guidance was raised, which could support a favourable trajectory if the trend continues 23.
  • A high subscription renewal rate and the scale of the platform could provide predictable long-term revenue 1.
  • EnergyHub could become an additional growth source if utilities keep adopting demand response programs 3.

What would break the thesis

  • An economic slowdown could reduce construction and renovation demand on which the partner network depends 1.
  • Hardware revenue is exposed to new tariffs, which could compress margins if costs cannot be passed on 2.
  • Net income declined in the second quarter of 2026 compared with the prior year, which could signal cost or operating pressure 2.

What to watch

  • Actual results against the third quarter SaaS and license revenue outlookQ3 2026
  • Evolution of hardware margins under new tariffs2026
  • Renewal rate trend for SaaS and license subscriptionsnext 10-K
  • Growth of EnergyHub through new utility programs2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Alarm.com generates most of its revenue from SaaS and license fees billed monthly to service provider partners, who resell the services to end customers and install the equipment. Hardware revenue from cameras, sensors and thermostats is the second pillar, and partner contracts start with a one-year term that renews annually 1. The company reported a 95% SaaS and license renewal rate in 2025, indicating stability in its subscriber base 1.

According to the annual report, total revenue grew from $939.8 million in 2024 to $1.0112 billion in 2025, and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA reached $206.0 million 1. In the second quarter of 2026, SaaS and license revenue was $188.8 million, up 11% 23.

The platform covers interactive security, video monitoring with AI-driven analytics, automation and energy management, access control and small business solutions, all delivered through the partner network 1. The EnergyHub subsidiary adds demand response services for utilities, and the company acquired RGS to expand that position 1.

Segments

SaaS and license

SaaS and license revenue, the largest component, represented 68% of total revenue in 2025 and rose to $689.4 million, supported by monthly subscription fees paid by service partners 1. In the second quarter of 2026 the segment reached $188.8 million, and the 2026 guidance was raised to a low end of $754.0 million 23.

EnergyHub

EnergyHub provides software for utilities that manages virtual power plants by aggregating thermostats, batteries and electric vehicles 1. In July 2026 the platform dispatched 304 demand response events and shifted 17.5 GWh of load during peak periods 3.

Market context

Alarm.com serves residential, multi-family, small business, commercial and energy markets, and in 2025 its platforms processed more than 365 billion data points from over 170 million connected devices 1. International operations remain small, since only 5% of 2025 revenue came from outside North America, which suggests room for expansion 1.

The connected property market depends on new construction and renovation, and according to the risk disclosures an economic slowdown could reduce the number of partners and demand 1. Demand for security and life safety services also depends on trust in provider solutions, which defects or outages could affect 1.

Trends

  • Growth in SaaS revenuetailwind

    SaaS and license revenue keeps growing and the 2026 guidance was raised, suggesting subscriber demand remains solid if the trend continues 23.

  • Expansion in energy and utilitiestailwind

    Demand response and virtual power plant programs are becoming more important as utilities manage peak demand, and EnergyHub is scaling up 3.

  • Macroeconomic pressuresheadwind

    Conditions such as inflation, tariffs and financial market uncertainty could reduce consumer spending and demand for new installations 12.

  • Tariffs and hardware costsmixed

    New trade tariffs could raise hardware costs and compress margins on equipment revenue if they cannot be passed on to customers 2.

Competitive position

The company's risk disclosures cite new entrants into the industry and new offerings from existing competitors, which could put pressure on pricing 1. Because it relies on its partner network, direct competition with those partners could also affect distribution 1.

Competition includes security and automation solution providers offering the same service categories, as well as utility software providers in demand response 1. Competitor names are not explicitly given in the analysed sources, so the competitive profile is described in general terms.

  • Residential and commercial security solution providers

    Competitors offering alarm systems and video monitoring, aimed at the same distribution channels, referred to generically in the company's risk disclosures 1.

  • New entrants into the connected property market

    Companies that could enter the industry, a risk the company identifies that could alter pricing and market share 1.

  • Energy and demand response platforms

    Virtual power plant software providers, an area where EnergyHub competes for utility contracts 13.

  • Partners that build in-house products

    Installers that could move to proprietary solutions or other platforms, a dependency mentioned in the company's risk disclosures 1.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. · 19 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.