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olivLaw · US equity research

AMCR AMCR

Miscellaneous Manufacturing Industries · SIC 3990 · Vertical: Miscellaneous Manufacturing Industries (SIC 3990)

45.84USD−5.48% · 1 dayClose 05 Nov 2026

Amcor plc (AMCR) is the global leader in primary consumer packaging and dispensing solutions for nutrition, health, beauty and wellness. In fiscal 2026, ended June 30, 2026, net sales reached 23.5 billion USD, up 57%, largely driven by the Berry acquisition. The company is changing to a calendar year and guides to adjusted EPS of 1.80-1.90 USD for the transition period July-December 2026.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 05 Nov 2026, AMCR (AMCR) stock was 45.84 USD (−5.48% on the day), with market capitalisation 21.2 bn USD, P/E 19.6 on diluted EPS of 2.34 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 5.67%, beta 0.63, 52-week range 36.69–50.58 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q1 2027): revenue of 6.1 bn USD (+6.7% YoY), net income of 242.0 m USD (−7.6% YoY), diluted EPS 0.52 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
21.2 bn USD
shares as of 03 Nov 2026
P/E (TTM)
19.6
Diluted EPS TTM 2.34 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
5.10%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
5.67%
DPS 12m 2.60
Beta (2y)
0.63
Volatility (1y) 32%
52-week range
36.6950.58

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
52.6
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
40.89 – 49.50
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.57 · band width 19.0%
SMA 50 / 200
44.01 / 43.09
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
1.14 / 0.96
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+9.7%−5.9%+15.7 pp—
3 months−2.6%−4.6%+2.0 pp—
6 months+14.8%+0.2%+14.6 pp—
Year to date+9.9%+7.4%+2.5 pp—
1 year+13.6%+8.2%+5.4 pp−45.6%
3 years+1.2%+68.4%−67.2 pp+41.8%
5 years−24.5%+56.5%−81.0 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−27.5%
23 Feb 2026 → 15 May 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−45.6%
06 Jun 2022 → 15 May 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−5.5%
S&P 500 +9.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q1 2027 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
6.1 bn USD
+6.7% YoY
Net income
242.0 m USD
−7.6% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.52
−8.8% YoY
net / operating
3.9% / 7.4%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26Q4 '26Q1 '27
Revenue3.2 bn3.3 bn5.1 bn5.7 bn5.4 bn5.9 bn6.4 bn6.1 bn
Cost of revenue2.6 bn2.7 bn4.2 bn4.6 bn4.4 bn4.7 bn5.1 bn5.0 bn
Gross profit626.0 m654.0 m895.0 m1.1 bn1.0 bn1.2 bn1.3 bn1.2 bn
Research & development27.0 m27.0 m38.0 m46.0 m38.0 m44.0 m42.0 m41.0 m
SG&A255.0 m266.0 m408.0 m435.0 m440.0 m488.0 m568.0 m468.0 m
Operating income297.0 m313.0 m87.0 m461.0 m331.0 m461.0 m646.0 m454.0 m
Depreciation & amortisation130.0 m131.0 m323.0 m364.0 m374.0 m346.0 m365.0 m365.0 m
Interest expense81.0 m85.0 m144.0 m168.0 m169.0 m170.0 m169.0 m166.0 m
Pre-tax income224.0 m237.0 m-47.0 m309.0 m178.0 m310.0 m485.0 m299.0 m
Income tax58.0 m40.0 m-6.0 m49.0 m3.0 m32.0 m97.0 m58.0 m
Net income163.0 m196.0 m-39.0 m262.0 m177.0 m278.0 m389.0 m242.0 m
Diluted EPS0.560.68-0.020.570.380.600.84 ≈0.52
Operating cash flow428.0 m ≈117.0 m ≈1.1 bn-133.0 m503.0 m ≈186.0 m ≈1.6 bn-527.0 m
Capex98.0 m ≈117.0 m ≈220.0 m238.0 m221.0 m ≈228.0 m ≈235.0 m301.0 m
Dividends paid186.0 m ≈184.0 m ≈295.0 m294.0 m300.0 m ≈300.0 m ≈301.0 m300.0 m
Share repurchases0 ≈0 ≈0———0—

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 6 percentile of its own 34-quarter history (min 17.9, median 97.1, max 172.6; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20192020202120222023202420252026
Revenue9.5 bn12.5 bn12.9 bn14.5 bn14.7 bn13.6 bn15.0 bn23.5 bn
Revenue YoY+1.5%+31.8%+3.2%+13.1%+1.0%−7.2%+10.0%+56.6%
Net income430.0 m612.0 m939.0 m805.0 m1.0 bn730.0 m511.0 m1.1 bn
Net income YoY−25.2%+42.3%+53.4%−14.3%+30.2%−30.3%−30.0%+116.4%
Diluted EPS0.360.380.600.530.712.521.602.38
Diluted EPS YoY−26.5%+5.2%+57.6%−12.1%+33.3%+257.4%−36.5%+48.7%
net %4.5%4.9%7.3%5.5%7.1%5.4%3.4%4.7%
Free cash flow443.8 m984.0 m993.0 m999.0 m735.0 m829.0 m810.0 m1.2 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Cash
1.1 bn USD
Financial debt
135.0 m USD
Net debt
-980.0 m USD
Equity
11.8 bn USD
Total assets
37.1 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.01x
Current ratio
1.25x
ROE
9.4%
ROA
3.0%
FCF margin
5.2%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2024
13.6 bn
2025
15.0 bn
2026
23.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2024
10.9 bn
2025
12.2 bn
2026
18.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Gross profit
2024
2.7 bn
2025
2.8 bn
2026
4.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Research & development
2024
106.0 m
2025
120.0 m
2026
170.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

SG&A
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.2 bn
2026
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Operating income
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.0 bn
2026
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2024
595.0 m
2025
722.0 m
2026
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

EBITDA
2024
1.8 bn ≈
2025
1.7 bn ≈
2026
3.4 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026derived

Interest expense
2024
348.0 m
2025
396.0 m
2026
676.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2024
907.0 m
2025
650.0 m
2026
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Income tax
2024
163.0 m
2025
135.0 m
2026
181.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Net income
2024
730.0 m
2025
511.0 m
2026
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2024
2.52
2025
1.60
2026
2.38

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2024
288.1 m
2025
318.6 m
2026
463.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Dividend per share
2024
2.49
2025
2.54
2026
2.59

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2024
588.0 m
2025
827.0 m
2026
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Receivables
2024
1.8 bn
2025
3.4 bn
2026
3.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Inventories
2024
—
2025
—
2026
—

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Aug 2022verified

Current assets
2024
5.0 bn
2025
8.4 bn
2026
9.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2024
—
2025
—
2026
—

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Nov 2022verified

Goodwill
2024
5.3 bn
2025
11.3 bn
2026
12.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2024
1.4 bn
2025
7.4 bn
2026
6.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Total assets
2024
16.5 bn
2025
37.1 bn
2026
37.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Accounts payable
2024
2.6 bn
2025
3.5 bn
2026
4.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Short-term debt
2024
84.0 m
2025
116.0 m
2026
135.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Current liabilities
2024
4.3 bn
2025
7.0 bn
2026
7.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Total liabilities
2024
12.6 bn
2025
25.3 bn
2026
25.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Equity
2024
4.0 bn
2025
11.7 bn
2026
11.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.4 bn
2026
2.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Capex
2024
492.0 m
2025
580.0 m
2026
922.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Free cash flow
2024
829.0 m ≈
2025
810.0 m ≈
2026
1.2 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2024
-476.0 m
2025
-2.1 bn
2026
-524.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2024
-857.0 m
2025
910.0 m
2026
-1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Dividends paid
2024
722.0 m
2025
845.0 m
2026
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Share repurchases
2024
30.0 m
2025
0
2026
1.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
56.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue CAGR 3Y
17.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Revenue CAGR 5Y
12.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EBIT growth (YoY)
88.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income growth (YoY)
116.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income CAGR 3Y
1.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Net income CAGR 5Y
3.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EPS growth (YoY)
48.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EPS CAGR 3Y
50.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
EPS CAGR 5Y
31.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
FCF growth (YoY)
51.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Profitability

Gross margin
19.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
14.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
7.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
4.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
3.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
9.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
2.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
14.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
6.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
111.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
155.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
-658.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
2.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
1.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
985.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
772.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
71.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
52.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
55 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
59 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
21.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
20.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
19.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
19.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
5.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
0.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
6.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
10.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
0.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
27.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
3.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
5.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
5.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 69 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

45.84 USD

05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 21.2 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
21.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
19.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
6.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
9.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
4.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
56.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Dividend yield
5.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

35/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2026
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 03 Nov 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 05 Nov 2026
verified 1485derived 124

Score by group

  • Quality74
  • Growth100
  • Balance sheet66
  • Returns49
  • Valuation59

Estimated value range

Low
41.78
USD per share
Mid
49.23
USD per share
High
60.35
USD per share
Price: 45.84 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: 7.4% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 6.9% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: high · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 34.00 – 74.97 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)49.55 – 74.97 (Mid 59.46)
    WACC 9.3% · starting FCFF 1.3 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 74%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 2.8%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · not enough peers
  • Dividend discount (DDM)34.00 – 45.73 (Mid 39.00)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Miscellaneous Manufacturing Industries (SIC 3990)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 69/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality14.6%97 (on a fixed band)10%
Net margin · Quality4.5%50 (vs peers)6%
FCF conversion · Quality71.1%59 (on a fixed band)6%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth17.0%100 (on a fixed band)8%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth50.0%100 (on a fixed band)8%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet-0.2x100 (on a fixed band)10%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet2.8x20 (on a fixed band)6%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.4x50 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation19.6x47 (on a fixed band)10%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation6.1x81 (on a fixed band)10%
FCF yield · Valuation3.6%46 (on a fixed band)8%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns5.7%81 (on a fixed band)6%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns155.6%0 (on a fixed band)4%

Score groups

  • Balance sheet66/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality74/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns49/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation59/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

AMCOR PLC (AMCR). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 23.5 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 56.6%; net margin 4.5%; ROE 9.3%; net debt/EBITDA -0.2x.

The estimated value range is 41.78–60.35 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 49.23 USD, the price of 45.84 USD leaves a potential of 7.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 6.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 69/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 14.6%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 17.0%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 50.0%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: -0.2x
  • EV/EBITDA: 6.1x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.7%

What contradicts it

  • Interest coverage: 2.8x
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 155.6%

Versus the vertical median

Miscellaneous Manufacturing Industries (SIC 3990) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 9 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
19.6x
vertical median —
EV/EBITDA
6.1x
vertical median —
P/S
0.9x
vertical median 0.9x
at median
P/B
1.8x
vertical median 1.2x
above median (+49.4%)
ROE
9.3%
vertical median -2.0%
above median
Net margin
4.5%
vertical median 2.3%
above median (+93.8%)
EBIT margin
7.9%
vertical median 2.4%
above median (+234.1%)
Revenue YoY
56.6%
vertical median 10.3%
above median (+448.4%)
Net debt/EBITDA
-0.2x
vertical median —
Dividend yield
5.7%
vertical median 1.2%
above median (+377.6%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
AMCRAmcor PLC21.2 bn19.69.3%4.5%+56.6%+14% / +1%
DAKTDaktronics, Inc.925.3 m19.616.2%5.7%+10.9%+2% / +84%
HCAIHuachen AI Parking Management Technology Holding Co., Ltd85.8 m—-402.1%-642.6%−83.9%−75% / unavailable
MWGMulti Ways Holdings Limited44.3 m—-2.0%-1.0%+44.1%−51% / −53%
VTSIVirTra, Inc.30.6 m—-6.1%—unavailable−46% / −63%
DOGZDogness (International) Corporation8.7 m—-32.0%-173.9%−23.3%−95% / −81%
JCSEJe Cleantech Holdings Limited8.1 m3.218.3%15.9%+11.8%+36% / +66%
WFFWF Holding Ltd5.7 m—-127.3%-64.4%+61.9%−63% / unavailable
ODCOil-Dri Corporation of America——20.5%11.5%+1.7%+26% / +142%
BRCBrady Corp——16.1%12.4%+9.8%+2% / +42%

1- and 3-year price returns: for AMCR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
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Base
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Bull
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
30.11
Total return -30% · Per year -30%
52.98
Total return 21% · Per year 21%
79.47
Total return 80% · Per year 80%
3 years
35.71
Total return -7% · Per year -3%
70.07
Total return 73% · Per year 20%
114.44
Total return 175% · Per year 40%
5 years
42.36
Total return 19% · Per year 4%
92.67
Total return 142% · Per year 19%
164.80
Total return 312% · Per year 33%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 17.52
  • Net margin± 12.26
  • Annual revenue growth± 9.15
  • Annual dilution± 1.03

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 14 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (05 Nov 2026), 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).

In brief

Amcor plc (AMCR) is the global leader in primary consumer packaging and dispensing solutions for nutrition, health, beauty and wellness. In fiscal 2026, ended June 30, 2026, net sales reached 23.5 billion USD, up 57%, largely driven by the Berry acquisition 12. The company is changing to a calendar year and guides to adjusted EPS of 1.80-1.90 USD for the transition period July-December 2026 2.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Global leadership with a broad range of materials and a scale that supports innovation and product development 1.
  • Strong cash generation and an investment-grade credit rating that support dividends and acquisitions 12.
  • A portfolio of over 7,000 patents, registered designs and trademarks plus a global network of innovation centers 1.

Weaknesses

  • Integrating a large acquisition such as Berry is complex and could delay the realization of synergies 1.
  • Significant debt after the acquisition raises interest costs and limits financial flexibility 2.
  • Dependence on volatile raw materials exposes margins to price shocks and temporary shortages 1.

Opportunities

  • Additional Berry synergies and the reshaping of non-core businesses could improve margins 12.
  • Demand for sustainable and recyclable packaging could open new contracts with demanding customers 1.
  • Organic growth in emerging markets could offset pressure in mature regions 1.

Threats

  • Pricing pressure from consolidated customers could compress margins 1.
  • Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions could affect costs and deliveries 1.
  • Competitors adopting disruptive technologies could reduce the company's market share 1.

Risks

  • Dependence on key customersmedium

    Loss of a major customer or lower volumes could significantly affect sales and profit 1.

  • Acquisition integrationhigh

    If the Berry integration does not deliver expected synergies, the benefits of the transaction could be smaller or later than estimated 1.

  • Raw material costshigh

    Price shocks and raw material shortages could reduce margins if pass-through to customers is delayed 1.

  • Indebtednessmedium

    High financing costs after the acquisition could limit investment and the ability to return capital to shareholders 2.

  • Environmental and regulatory liabilitieslow

    Changing environmental law could create unexpected compliance or site remediation costs 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If Berry synergies keep exceeding plan and volumes grow, profitability could rise meaningfully during the transition period.
  • Leadership in primary packaging and global scale could help the company win new contracts in growing markets.
  • Strong cash flow could fund dividends and acquisitions without weakening the credit rating.

What would break the thesis

  • If Berry integration slips, synergies could be smaller than expected and debt could stay elevated.
  • Pricing pressure from consolidated customers and volatile input costs could compress margins.
  • If demand for some products falls because of packaging rules, part of the portfolio could become less relevant.

What to watch

  • Results for the quarter ending September 30, 2026Q1 2027
  • Delivery against the transition-period adjusted EPS guidanceQ1 2027
  • Progress and pace of Berry synergy capture and integration2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 14 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (05 Nov 2026), 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).

The business

Management was reorganized after the Berry acquisition, with a new CEO from the commercial role and divisions led by executives from Berry and other packaging companies 1. The company is listed on the NYSE and ASX, and integration and cost reduction remain central to its medium-term strategy 12.

Market context

Demand is sensitive to economic conditions, packaging regulation and consumer preferences for recyclable packaging or less petrochemical content 1. The Middle East conflict and high inflation in some regions have raised energy and raw material costs, which could keep pressure on margins 1.

Trends

  • Berry integration and synergiestailwind

    Berry synergies came in ahead of plan in the latest quarter, and the company says further growth could follow if integration continues as planned 2. If synergies are fully realized, cash generation could rise further 1.

  • Raw material cost inflationmixed

    Costs of polymers and aluminum rose considerably, and sales temporarily benefited from passing these costs to customers 2. Delays in passing on prices could however affect margins 1.

  • Demand for more sustainable packagingmixed

    Pressure to reduce packaging waste and petrochemical components could favor the company's recyclable solutions but could reduce demand for some existing products 1.

  • Customer consolidationheadwind

    Large customers are consolidating through acquisitions, which raises sales concentration and can bring pricing pressure 1.

Competitive position

The market is highly competitive, with price, innovation, sustainability, service and quality as the main methods of competition 1. The company regards itself as a significant participant in its markets, and its listed competitors include large packaging, labeling and glass companies 1.

Competition also includes many privately held companies, and over time competitors could adopt disruptive technologies that improve their position 1. Future results could depend on how Amcor responds to such moves 1.

  • Ball CorporationBALL

    Packaging competitor named in the annual report's competition section 1.

  • Crown HoldingsCCK

    Competitor in metal packaging and closures named by the company 1.

  • Sonoco Products CompanySON

    Packaging producer named among principal competitors 1.

  • Silgan HoldingsSLGN

    Competitor in rigid packaging and closures named in the annual report 1.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / AMCR · 14 Aug 2026
  2. [2] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / AMCR · 12 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.