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olivLaw · US equity research

APi Group Corporation APG

Services-To Dwellings & Other Buildings · SIC 7340 · Vertical: Services-To Dwellings & Other Buildings (SIC 7340)

44.03USD−5.05% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

APi Group is a global provider of fire and life safety, security, elevator and escalator, and specialty services with over 500 locations worldwide as of fiscal 2025. Net revenues in fiscal 2025 were 7,911 million USD, up 12.7%, and in the second quarter of 2026 reported growth was 13.3%, of which 10.1% organic. The company raised its 2026 outlook to net revenues of 8,875-9,025 million USD.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, APi Group Corporation (APG) stock was 44.03 USD (−5.05% on the day), with market capitalisation 18.7 bn USD, P/E 54.4 on diluted EPS of 0.81 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.10, 52-week range 36.07–49.40 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 2.6 bn USD (+22.5% YoY), net income of 114.0 m USD (+22.6% YoY), diluted EPS 0.24 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
18.7 bn USD
shares as of 22 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
54.4
Diluted EPS TTM 0.81 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
1.84%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.10
Volatility (1y) 31%
52-week range
36.0749.40

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
61.2
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
37.02 – 45.76
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.80 · band width 21.1%
SMA 50 / 200
39.89 / 41.99
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
1.38 / 0.85
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+8.3%−1.1%+9.4 pp—
3 months+5.4%−0.5%+5.8 pp—
6 months−4.9%+4.4%−9.3 pp—
Year to date+15.1%+12.3%+2.8 pp—
1 year+24.3%+13.5%+10.7 pp−5.1%
3 years+138.9%+76.4%+62.5 pp+33.5%
5 years+185.4%+63.7%+121.7 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−25.6%
27 Apr 2026 → 16 Sept 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−49.6%
04 Jan 2022 → 30 Sept 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+23.3%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
2.6 bn USD
+22.5% YoY
Net income
114.0 m USD
+22.6% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.24
+20.0% YoY
net / operating
4.5% / 7.9%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue1.9 bn1.7 bn2.0 bn2.1 bn2.1 bn2.0 bn2.3 bn2.6 bn
Cost of revenue1.3 bn1.2 bn1.4 bn1.4 bn1.4 bn1.4 bn1.6 bn1.8 bn
Gross profit575.0 m542.0 m615.0 m652.0 m678.0 m620.0 m703.0 m770.0 m
SG&A459.0 m458.0 m472.0 m489.0 m514.0 m517.0 m528.0 m568.0 m
Operating income116.0 m84.0 m143.0 m163.0 m164.0 m103.0 m175.0 m202.0 m
Interest expense—38.0 m37.0 m34.0 m—30.0 m36.0 m45.0 m
Pre-tax income78.0 m46.0 m108.0 m130.0 m129.0 m71.0 m138.0 m155.0 m
Income tax11.0 m11.0 m31.0 m37.0 m32.0 m14.0 m39.0 m41.0 m
Net income67.0 m35.0 m77.0 m93.0 m97.0 m57.0 m99.0 m114.0 m
Diluted EPS0.16 ≈0.070.160.200.25 ≈0.120.200.24
Operating cash flow283.0 m62.0 m83.0 m ≈232.0 m ≈382.0 m85.0 m83.0 m ≈225.0 m ≈
Capex18.0 m12.0 m27.0 m ≈31.0 m ≈26.0 m18.0 m31.0 m ≈27.0 m ≈
Share repurchases075.0 m0 ≈0 ≈0066.0 m ≈186.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 17 percentile of its own 18-quarter history (min 43.0, median 61.0, max 286.2; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue3.7 bn985.0 m3.6 bn3.9 bn6.6 bn6.9 bn7.0 bn7.9 bn
Revenue YoYunavailable−73.6%+264.2%+9.8%+66.4%+5.6%+1.3%+12.7%
Net income136.0 m-153.0 m-153.0 m47.0 m73.0 m153.0 m250.0 m302.0 m
Net income YoYunavailable−212.5%unavailableunavailable+55.3%+109.6%+63.4%+20.8%
Diluted EPSunavailable-1.15-2.21-0.670.10-0.46-0.56-0.69
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable−560.0%unavailableunavailable
net %3.6%-15.5%-4.3%1.2%1.1%2.2%3.6%3.8%
Free cash flow38.0 m139.0 m458.0 m127.0 m191.0 m428.0 m536.0 m663.0 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
912.0 m USD
Financial debt
2.8 bn USD
Net debt
1.8 bn USD
Equity
3.4 bn USD
Total assets
8.9 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.81x
Current ratio
1.50x
ROE
9.5%
ROA
3.5%
FCF margin
8.4%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
6.9 bn
2024
7.0 bn
2025
7.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
5.0 bn
2024
4.8 bn
2025
5.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
1.9 bn
2024
2.2 bn
2025
2.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
1.6 bn
2024
1.7 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
359.0 m
2024
484.0 m
2025
554.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Interest expense
2023
145.0 m
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 28 Feb 2024verified

Pre-tax income
2023
232.0 m
2024
330.0 m
2025
413.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
79.0 m
2024
80.0 m
2025
111.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
153.0 m
2024
250.0 m
2025
302.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-0.46
2024
-0.56
2025
-0.69

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
352.7 m
2024
401.5 m
2025
415.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
479.0 m
2024
499.0 m
2025
912.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
150.0 m
2024
143.0 m
2025
145.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
2.6 bn
2024
2.7 bn
2025
3.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
385.0 m
2024
379.0 m
2025
397.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
2.5 bn
2024
2.9 bn
2025
3.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
1.6 bn
2024
1.7 bn
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
7.6 bn
2024
8.2 bn
2025
8.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
472.0 m
2024
497.0 m
2025
526.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
5.0 m
2024
4.0 m
2025
5.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
2.3 bn
2024
2.7 bn
2025
2.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
1.8 bn
2024
1.9 bn
2025
2.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
4.7 bn
2024
5.2 bn
2025
5.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
2.1 bn
2024
3.0 bn †
2025
3.4 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
514.0 m
2024
620.0 m
2025
759.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
86.0 m
2024
84.0 m
2025
96.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
428.0 m ≈
2024
536.0 m ≈
2025
663.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-115.0 m
2024
-829.0 m
2025
-254.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-532.0 m
2024
245.0 m
2025
-121.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
41.0 m
2024
0
2025
75.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
12.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
6.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
17.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
14.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
20.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
60.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
23.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
31.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
7.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
4.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
7.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
10.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
3.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
7.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
8.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
3.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
1.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
775.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
102.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
673.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
183.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
71 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
10 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
35 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
46 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
18.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
21.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
51.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
54.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
1.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
5.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
2.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
34.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
2.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
27.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
3.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
1.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 41 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

44.03 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 18.7 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
18.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
54.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
5.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
10.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
4.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
12.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

31/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 22 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 29 Oct 2026
verified 1188derived 93

Score by group

  • Valuation20
  • Balance sheet32
  • Quality61
  • Growth54
  • Returns19

Estimated value range

Low
17.93
USD per share
Mid
19.89
USD per share
High
24.18
USD per share
Price: 44.03 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -54.8% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -121.3% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 17.93 – 24.18 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/E17.93 – 24.18 (Mid 19.89)
    3 companies used · median multiple 24.6x · quartiles 22.2x – 29.9x
    ABM, FTDR, ROL
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Services-To Dwellings & Other Buildings (SIC 7340)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 41/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality7.9%45 (on a fixed band)17%
Net margin · Quality4.1%50 (vs peers)10%
FCF conversion · Quality183.4%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth6.5%54 (on a fixed band)14%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.2x32 (on a fixed band)7%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation54.4x0 (on a fixed band)17%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation3.6%45 (on a fixed band)14%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns1.3%19 (on a fixed band)10%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial32/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial54/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality61/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial19/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation20/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

APi Group Corporation (APG). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 7.9 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 12.7%; net margin 4.1%; ROE 10.9%.

The estimated value range is 17.93–24.18 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 19.89 USD, the price of 44.03 USD leaves a potential of -54.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -121.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 41/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance, growth, returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF conversion: 183.4%

What contradicts it

  • P/E (TTM): 54.4x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.3%
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Services-To Dwellings & Other Buildings (SIC 7340) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 6 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
54.4x
vertical median 24.6x
above median (+121.3%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
P/S
2.1x
vertical median 3.0x
below median (−29.5%)
P/B
5.4x
vertical median 7.5x
below median (−28.4%)
ROE
10.9%
vertical median 34.5%
below median (−68.6%)
Net margin
4.1%
vertical median 7.3%
below median (−43.5%)
EBIT margin
7.2%
vertical median 10.9%
below median (−33.7%)
Revenue YoY
12.7%
vertical median 10.3%
above median (+24.0%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
Dividend yield
—
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
APGAPi Group Corporation18.7 bn54.410.9%4.1%+12.7%+24% / +139%
ROLRollins, Inc.18.3 bn35.236.0%13.2%+11.0%−38% / −6%
FTDRFrontdoor, Inc.6.4 bn24.6101.9%12.8%+13.6%+72% / +170%
ABMAbm Industries Incorporated3.2 bn19.79.2%1.8%+4.6%+27% / +34%
PMECPrimech Holdings Ltd.11.6 m—-13.0%-2.6%+2.5%−71% / −88%
ARAIArrive AI Inc.5.4 m——-52,935.3%unavailable−97% / unavailable
ABNBAirbnb, Inc.——34.5%20.4%+10.3%+51% / +40%

1- and 3-year price returns: for APG from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
28.30
Total return -36% · Per year -36%
49.98
Total return 14% · Per year 14%
75.22
Total return 71% · Per year 71%
3 years
28.55
Total return -35% · Per year -13%
56.64
Total return 29% · Per year 9%
93.44
Total return 112% · Per year 29%
5 years
28.81
Total return -35% · Per year -8%
64.18
Total return 46% · Per year 8%
116.07
Total return 164% · Per year 21%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 14.16
  • Net margin± 9.91
  • Annual revenue growth± 7.99
  • Annual dilution± 0.83

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).

In brief

APi Group is a global provider of fire and life safety, security, elevator and escalator, and specialty services with over 500 locations worldwide as of fiscal 2025 1. Net revenues in fiscal 2025 were 7,911 million USD, up 12.7% 1, and in the second quarter of 2026 reported growth was 13.3%, of which 10.1% organic 3. The company raised its 2026 outlook to net revenues of 8,875-9,025 million USD 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has a large base of recurring revenue from inspection, service and monitoring, supported by statutory or insurance obligations 1.
  • The customer base is diversified, with long-standing relationships and low concentration, which gives stability to cash flows 1.
  • Global scale and a decentralized model allow sharing of best practices and development of leaders across businesses 1.

Weaknesses

  • Selling, general and administrative expenses grew faster than revenues in 2025, partly due to non-recurring systems costs 1.
  • Implementing new ERP systems and migrating to cloud platforms carries risks of delays, cost overruns and operational disruption 1.
  • The decentralized model may make it slower to spot misalignment with overall strategy or compliance policies 1.

Opportunities

  • Demand driven by stricter regulation and mandated inspections could continue to grow over the long term 1.
  • Projects linked to artificial intelligence and data centers could open new opportunities in high tech services 1.
  • A fragmented market could still offer many acquisition targets if integration remains effective 1.

Threats

  • Tariffs and pressure on material costs can reduce project activity and limit margins 12.
  • Intense competition and a shortage of skilled labor can pressure prices and service quality 12.
  • Currency fluctuations and risks in international operations can affect financial results 1.

Risks

  • Acquisitions that fail to deliverhigh

    Acquisitions can consume resources, lead to impairment and bring unforeseen liabilities, and integration could prove harder than expected 1.

  • ERP system implementationmedium

    Delays or errors in implementing new ERP systems and migrating to cloud platforms could affect internal control and reporting 1.

  • Delayed or poorly managed projectsmedium

    Cost overruns, delays and contract disputes could generate additional costs or claims against the company 1.

  • International operating risksmedium

    Anti-corruption rules, sanctions, limits on repatriating earnings and changing laws could create penalties or compliance costs 1.

  • Tariffs and supply chainsmedium

    Tariffs and supply chain disruptions could raise material costs and delay projects, which could reduce activity 12.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Strong organic growth in the second quarter of 2026, together with a record backlog, suggests demand for recurring services and projects remains solid 3.
  • The raised outlook for net revenues and adjusted EBITDA indicates management sees favorable conditions for the rest of the year 3.
  • The recurring revenue base and legally required inspections offer stability that could support growth even in weaker economic periods 1.

What would break the thesis

  • Acquisitions and their integration carry impairment risk and unforeseen costs, and too fast a pace of deals could dilute returns 1.
  • Pressure from tariffs, labor costs and competition could compress margins, especially in the Specialty Services segment 12.
  • ERP implementation and cloud migration could create more cost and operational disruption than anticipated 1.

What to watch

  • Delivery against the raised 2026 net revenue and adjusted EBITDA outlook2026
  • Trend in gross margin and SG&A costs in the Safety and Specialty segmentsQ3 2026
  • Impact of tariffs and material costs on project activityQ3 2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).

The business

APi Group operates through two reportable segments: Safety Services, covering design, installation, inspection, service and monitoring of fire protection, electronic security and elevator systems, and Specialty Services, covering specialty contracting, fabrication and distribution, and infrastructure and utility services in North America 12. Its model follows an 'inspection-first' approach, in which initial inspection work leads to recurring service work, much of it required by law or insurance 1.

Growth strategy combines organic expansion, acquisitions and sharing of best practices within a decentralized structure in which subsidiary leaders make key decisions 1. The company has completed 140 acquisitions since 2005 and aims to integrate acquired businesses quickly to expand margins 1. Capital expenditures are typically below 1.5% of net revenues, supporting a stable cash flow profile 1.

Customers include companies in high tech services, advanced manufacturing, healthcare, distribution centers, critical infrastructure, commercial, industrial, education, telecom, utilities and government 1. No single customer accounted for more than 5% of net revenues in 2025, limiting concentration 1.

Market context

Demand is also shaped by the cyclicality of customer industries, by seasonality, as revenues are typically lower in the first and second quarters due to unfavorable weather in North America, and by tariffs that can raise project costs 12.

Trends

  • Deferred infrastructure investmenttailwind

    Aging US infrastructure requires maintenance and retrofit, which has spurred demand, and growing adoption of artificial intelligence and high-performance computing could expand large projects in high tech services 1.

  • Tighter regulationtailwind

    Codes and standards set by associations and government agencies require periodic testing, inspection and retrofit, which can create recurring demand if regulation keeps tightening 1.

  • Tariffs and material costsheadwind

    Tariffs raise the cost of certain materials and projects, which could reduce project activity and demand for services if the pressure persists 12.

  • Labor pressuremixed

    Competition for skilled labor and higher wage costs can reduce profitability and affect timely service delivery, especially if costs cannot be passed on to customers 12.

Competitive position

The industries in which APi operates are highly competitive, and this competition has in the past led to lower proposals and reduced profit on services 12. The company argues that its scale, service portfolio and niche market leadership give it advantages over regional and local rivals 1.

Competitors range from international to regional and local companies in safety services and specialty contracting, and competition for acquisitions can raise prices and reduce deal returns 1.

  • Regional specialty contractors in North America

    Regional and local competitors in the Specialty Services segment that compete for projects and infrastructure services.

  • Local elevator and escalator service companies

    Local service firms competing for elevator and escalator maintenance contracts.

  • Other acquirers of service businesses

    Other potential buyers may offer more favorable terms or have greater financial resources, which can limit acquisition opportunities.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / APi Group Corporation · 25 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / APi Group Corporation · 30 Jul 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / APi Group Corporation · 30 Jul 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.