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olivLaw · US equity research

Arrow Electronics, Inc. ARW

Wholesale-Electronic Parts & Equipment, NEC · SIC 5065 · Vertical: Wholesale-Electronic Parts & Equipment, NEC (SIC 5065)

202.63USD−2.94% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Arrow Electronics distributes electronic components and enterprise computing solutions to manufacturers, service providers and channel partners in more than 85 countries. With consolidated sales of 30.9 billion USD in fiscal 2025, the company is in a phase of strong growth but also transition, with an interim CEO and ECS contracts that have produced losses.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) stock was 202.63 USD (−2.94% on the day), with market capitalisation 10.3 bn USD, P/E 12.9 on diluted EPS of 15.65 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.19, 52-week range 101.87–242.01 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 10.0 bn USD (+31.8% YoY), net income of 272.7 m USD (+45.3% YoY), diluted EPS 5.26 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
10.3 bn USD
shares as of 30 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
12.9
Diluted EPS TTM 15.65 · TTM to 04 Jul 2026
E/P (TTM)
7.72%
TTM to 04 Jul 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.19
Volatility (1y) 38%
52-week range
101.87242.01

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
38.5
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
200.96 – 233.20
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.05 · band width 14.9%
SMA 50 / 200
219.10 / 192.39
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-4.17 / -2.45
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−15.6%−1.1%−14.6 pp—
3 months−10.7%−0.5%−10.2 pp—
6 months+5.6%+4.4%+1.2 pp—
Year to date+83.9%+12.3%+71.6 pp—
1 year+81.5%+13.5%+68.0 pp+56.5%
3 years+67.5%+76.4%−8.9 pp+75.7%
5 years+65.8%+63.7%+2.2 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−17.4%
22 Jun 2026 → 07 Jul 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−38.2%
13 Jul 2023 → 07 Apr 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
+10.6%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 04 Jul 2026

Revenue
10.0 bn USD
+31.8% YoY
Net income
272.7 m USD
+45.3% YoY
Diluted EPS
5.26
+46.5% YoY
net / operating
2.7% / 3.8%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue6.8 bn7.3 bn6.8 bn7.6 bn7.7 bn8.7 bn9.5 bn10.0 bn
Cost of revenue6.0 bn6.5 bn6.0 bn6.7 bn6.9 bn7.7 bn8.4 bn8.9 bn
Gross profit784.8 m803.3 m774.0 m848.7 m835.3 m1.0 bn1.1 bn1.1 bn
SG&A534.5 m547.5 m562.3 m601.0 m587.9 m639.5 m656.1 m688.1 m
Operating income175.3 m195.1 m158.6 m190.6 m179.0 m294.1 m361.6 m377.3 m
Depreciation & amortisation40.6 m39.6 m35.8 m35.2 m32.8 m34.0 m36.1 m35.6 m
Pre-tax income116.1 m128.7 m103.2 m233.0 m128.8 m253.0 m307.3 m353.1 m
Income tax15.2 m28.8 m23.3 m45.9 m19.5 m59.4 m71.2 m80.3 m
Net income100.6 m99.2 m79.7 m187.7 m109.2 m194.6 m235.1 m272.7 m
Diluted EPS1.881.86 ≈1.513.592.093.75 ≈4.555.26
Operating cash flow80.6 m ≈326.5 m351.7 m-205.9 m ≈-281.7 m ≈200.0 m699.8 m318.3 m ≈
Capex18.5 m ≈22.5 m25.0 m18.6 m ≈30.3 m ≈27.4 m32.1 m21.1 m ≈
Share repurchases51.1 m ≈50.8 m59.4 m50.7 m ≈630.0 k ≈50.9 m33.3 m41.9 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 63 percentile of its own 35-quarter history (min 4.3, median 11.7, max 17.9; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue29.7 bn28.9 bn28.7 bn34.5 bn37.1 bn33.1 bn27.9 bn30.9 bn
Revenue YoY+11.8%−2.6%−0.8%+20.2%+7.7%−10.8%−15.7%+10.5%
Net income716.2 m-204.1 m584.4 m1.1 bn1.4 bn903.5 m392.1 m571.3 m
Net income YoY+78.1%−128.5%unavailable+89.6%+28.8%−36.7%−56.6%+45.7%
Diluted EPS8.10-2.447.4315.1021.8015.847.2910.93
Diluted EPS YoY+80.8%−130.1%unavailable+103.2%+44.4%−27.3%−54.0%+49.9%
net %2.4%-0.7%2.0%3.2%3.8%2.7%1.4%1.9%
Free cash flow137.4 m714.8 m1.2 bn335.9 m-111.9 m622.2 m1.0 bn-37.2 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
306.5 m USD
Financial debt
3.1 bn USD
Net debt
2.8 bn USD
Equity
6.7 bn USD
Total assets
29.1 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.46x
Current ratio
1.36x
ROE
9.1%
ROA
2.2%
FCF margin
-0.1%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
33.1 bn
2024
27.9 bn
2025
30.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
29.0 bn
2024
24.6 bn
2025
27.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
4.1 bn
2024
3.3 bn
2025
3.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
2.4 bn
2024
2.2 bn
2025
2.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
1.5 bn
2024
768.6 m
2025
822.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
181.1 m
2024
163.0 m
2025
137.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
1.7 bn ≈
2024
931.6 m ≈
2025
960.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived

Pre-tax income
2023
1.2 bn
2024
489.3 m
2025
717.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
255.0 m
2024
95.8 m
2025
148.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
903.5 m
2024
392.1 m
2025
571.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
15.84
2024
7.29
2025
10.93

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
57.0 m
2024
53.8 m
2025
52.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
218.1 m
2024
188.8 m
2025
306.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
12.2 bn
2024
13.0 bn
2025
19.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
5.2 bn
2024
4.7 bn
2025
5.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
18.3 bn
2024
18.4 bn
2025
25.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
530.7 m
2024
469.3 m
2025
474.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
2.1 bn
2024
2.1 bn
2025
2.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
127.4 m
2024
96.7 m
2025
77.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
21.7 bn
2024
21.8 bn
2025
29.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
10.1 bn
2024
11.0 bn
2025
17.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
1.7 bn
2024
350.0 m
2025
341.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
2.2 bn
2024
2.8 bn
2025
3.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
13.2 bn
2024
12.6 bn
2025
18.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
5.9 bn
2024
5.8 bn
2025
6.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
705.4 m
2024
1.1 bn
2025
64.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
83.3 m
2024
92.7 m
2025
101.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
622.2 m ≈
2024
1.0 bn ≈
2025
-37.2 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-72.3 m
2024
-94.4 m
2025
23.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-666.2 m
2024
-956.8 m
2025
-206.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
770.2 m
2024
265.1 m
2025
161.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
10.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-6.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
1.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
7.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
45.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-26.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
-0.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
49.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-20.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
8.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
-103.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
11.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
EBITDA margin
3.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
EBIT margin
3.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
Net margin
2.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
FCF margin
2.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026

Returns

ROE
12.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
ROA
2.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
ROIC
10.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
ROCE
12.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
1.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
1.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Debt / equity
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Quick ratio
1.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Cash ratio
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Jul 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
936.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
Capital expenditure
110.9 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
Free cash flow
825.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
FCF conversion
101.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
Cash conversion
69.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
220 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Days inventory outstanding
61 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Days payables outstanding
231 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Cash conversion cycle
50 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
10.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Enterprise value
12.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
12.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
12.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
Earnings yield
7.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
P/B
1.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
P/S
0.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
EV/EBITDA
9.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
EV/EBIT
10.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
EV/Sales
0.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
P/FCF
12.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
FCF yield
8.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
1.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 53 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

202.63 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 10.3 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
10.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
12.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
P/B
1.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
EV/EBITDA
9.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
ROE
12.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Net margin
2.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
10.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

31/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 04 Jul 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 04 Jul 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 30 Jul 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 06 Aug 2026
verified 2770derived 203

Score by group

  • Balance sheet62
  • Valuation76
  • Quality68
  • Growth0
  • Returns18

Estimated value range

Low
294.60
USD per share
Mid
328.46
USD per share
High
360.76
USD per share
Price: 202.63 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 62.1% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 38.3% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: same comparison basis (not independent confirmations) · 2 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 267.19 – 397.90 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA267.19 – 323.61 (Mid 296.08)
    3 companies used · median multiple 12.6x · quartiles 11.5x – 13.6x
    AVT, ITRN, TEL
  • Peers: P/E322.00 – 397.90 (Mid 360.84)
    4 companies used · median multiple 23.1x · quartiles 20.6x – 25.4x
    AVT, ITRN, RELL, TEL
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Wholesale-Electronic Parts & Equipment, NEC (SIC 5065)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 53/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality10.5%65 (on a fixed band)12%
Net margin · Quality2.3%40 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality101.7%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-6.0%0 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-20.6%0 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet1.4x74 (on a fixed band)12%
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.2x35 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation12.9x78 (on a fixed band)12%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation9.1x54 (on a fixed band)12%
FCF yield · Valuation8.0%100 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns1.2%18 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet62/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality68/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial18/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation76/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

ARROW ELECTRONICS, INC. (ARW). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-07-04.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 30.9 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 10.5%; net margin 2.3%; ROE 12.2%; net debt/EBITDA 1.4x.

The estimated value range is 294.60–360.76 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: same basis (multiples on one peer group, not independent confirmations)); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 328.46 USD, the price of 202.63 USD leaves a potential of 62.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 38.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 53/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF conversion: 101.7%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 1.4x
  • P/E (TTM): 12.9x
  • FCF yield: 8.0%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -6.0%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -20.6%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.2%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Interest coverage, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Wholesale-Electronic Parts & Equipment, NEC (SIC 5065) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
12.9x
vertical median 23.1x
below median (−43.8%)
EV/EBITDA
9.1x
vertical median 12.6x
below median (−28.0%)
P/S
0.3x
vertical median 2.9x
below median (−90.2%)
P/B
1.5x
vertical median 2.9x
below median (−49.2%)
ROE
12.2%
vertical median 6.7%
above median (+82.6%)
Net margin
2.3%
vertical median 3.6%
below median (−36.8%)
EBIT margin
3.4%
vertical median 4.4%
below median (−24.0%)
Revenue YoY
10.5%
vertical median 8.9%
above median (+17.3%)
Net debt/EBITDA
1.4x
vertical median 0.9x
above median (+50.9%)
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 1.6%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
TELTe Connectivity PLC63.8 bn27.518.5%12.6%+8.9%−3% / +68%
ARWArrow Electronics, Inc.10.3 bn12.912.2%2.3%+10.5%+82% / +68%
AVTAvnet, Inc.7.0 bn21.46.7%1.2%+24.5%+80% / +83%
ITRNIturan Location & Control Ltd.1.1 bn18.228.8%16.1%+6.8%+33% / +98%
RELLRichardson Electronics, Ltd.211.2 m24.75.2%3.6%+9.4%+87% / +50%
DCMDeFi Capital Markets, Inc.10.0 m—-95.0%-437.8%−79.4%unavailable / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for ARW from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
110.37
Total return -46% · Per year -46%
196.11
Total return -3% · Per year -3%
296.75
Total return 46% · Per year 46%
3 years
87.64
Total return -57% · Per year -24%
176.99
Total return -13% · Per year -4%
296.75
Total return 46% · Per year 14%
5 years
69.59
Total return -66% · Per year -19%
159.73
Total return -21% · Per year -5%
296.75
Total return 46% · Per year 8%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 44.25
  • Net margin± 30.97
  • Annual revenue growth± 27.97
  • Annual dilution± 2.60

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Arrow Electronics distributes electronic components and enterprise computing solutions to manufacturers, service providers and channel partners in more than 85 countries 1. With consolidated sales of 30.9 billion USD in fiscal 2025 3, the company is in a phase of strong growth but also transition, with an interim CEO and ECS contracts that have produced losses 12.

SWOT

Strengths

  • A very broad product portfolio and a global network of sales and distribution, giving fast access to diverse markets.
  • Low dependence on individual customers, with no customer exceeding a small share of sales.
  • Supplier agreements that partly protect inventory against write-downs and price reductions.

Weaknesses

  • Low gross margins typical of distribution, leaving little room for execution errors.
  • Long-term ECS purchase commitments have produced losses and could produce more.
  • Leadership is interim, which creates uncertainty until a permanent CEO is appointed.

Opportunities

  • Growing demand for AI-related components and a rising share of value-added services could support better margins.
  • The ArrowSphere platform could help channel partners sell more cloud and software offerings.
  • Expansion in IP&E, a more margin-accretive segment, could diversify revenue.

Threats

  • Tariffs and export restrictions can affect international sales and costs.
  • Supplier consolidation may reduce access to products or bargaining power.
  • Strong competition and pricing pressure could reduce margins if demand slows.

Risks

  • Supplier dependencehigh

    Most supplier distribution agreements can be cancelled on short notice, and if terms change or a key supplier withdraws, the business could be seriously affected.

  • Unmet ECS commitmentshigh

    If sales under the ECS agreements do not cover purchase obligations through 2032, results could suffer, and the company anticipates possible additional losses 1.

  • International and trade risksmedium

    Most sales come from outside the United States, and tariffs, sanctions and export restrictions can affect operations and profitability 1.

  • Inventory write-downsmedium

    Technological change or falling demand can reduce inventory value, and contractual protections do not fully cover such losses 1.

  • Leadership transitionmedium

    The search for a permanent CEO may create uncertainty, divert management attention and affect strategy execution 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Sales and diluted earnings per share in the second quarter of 2026 beat the high end of guidance, showing solid execution if the trend holds 3.
  • Book-to-bill ratios above parity could support future growth if demand for components and AI continues 3.
  • A rising share of value-added services could improve long-term margins 1.

What would break the thesis

  • Distribution margins remain thin, and competitive pressure can limit gains if demand weakens.
  • Losses on ECS contracts and possible further losses show that long-term commitments can absorb profitability.
  • The absence of a permanent CEO and international trade risks can create uncertainty for investors and partners.

What to watch

  • Third-quarter guidance for sales and diluted earnings per shareQ3 2026
  • Margin trends and losses on ECS contractsQ3 2026
  • Appointment of a permanent CEO2026
  • Impact of tariffs and export restrictions on costs and salesnext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Arrow sources and engineers technology for thousands of leading manufacturers and service providers, with one of the broadest product portfolios among electronic components and computing solutions suppliers 1. The company operates in the three largest electronics markets, the Americas, EMEA and Asia/Pacific, with over 140 sales facilities and 39 distribution and value-added centers 1. Its stated strategy is to be the premier, technology-centric, go-to-market and supply chain services company 1.

Segments

Global Components

This segment distributes electronic components to OEMs and EMS providers, with engineering, integration and supply chain services 1. In fiscal 2025 about 72% of segment sales came from semiconductor products, and about 16% from IP&E products such as capacitors, resistors and connectors 1. In the second quarter of 2026 segment sales rose 39% year over year 3.

Global ECS

The ECS segment provides computing solutions to VARs and MSPs, covering datacenter, cloud, security and analytics, supported by the ArrowSphere platform 1. In fiscal 2025 sales were mainly software applications and storage 1. In the second quarter of 2026 segment sales rose 14% year over year while operating income fell 12% 3.

Market context

The company operates in component and enterprise computing markets that depend on global demand and the semiconductor cycle 1. Management says component demand is gradually increasing, aided by interest in AI technology, but cannot predict whether the trend will continue 1. In the second quarter of 2026 backlog remained well above parity 3.

Trends

  • Recovery in component demandtailwind

    After a downturn in 2024, demand returned in all regions, and growth was strong in 2026 13. If the recovery holds, volumes and margins in components could keep improving.

  • Tariffs and trade policyheadwind

    Uncertainty around US and foreign tariffs can affect costs and supply chains, and the company is trying to mitigate this through optimization 1. The effect remains uncertain and depends on policy developments.

  • Multi-year ECS commitmentsheadwind

    ECS contracts with non-cancellable purchase obligations through 2032 could produce losses if sales fall short, and the company anticipates possible additional losses 1.

  • Growth in value-added servicesmixed

    A shift toward engineering, integration and supply chain services may improve margins and long-term customer relationships if their share of sales grows 1.

Competitive position

Arrow competes with large multinational and national distributors as well as numerous smaller specialized competitors 1. Competition creates pricing and margin pressure, and suppliers themselves can compete with the company for customers 1. Supplier consolidation may also reduce distributors' bargaining power 1.

  • AvnetAVT

    Global distributor of components and solutions, named among large competitors in electronics distribution.

  • Large multinational and national component distributors

    Major competitors covering several regions and sectors, in some cases with broader customer bases.

  • Specialized competitors in narrow markets

    Smaller competitors that are aggressive in specific product categories or industries.

  • Suppliers selling directly

    Manufacturers can compete with distributors for customers, which makes the supplier relationship more complex.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

  • Current report15 Oct 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers
  • Current report04 Sept 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
  • Current report06 Aug 2026
    Results of operations · Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report13 May 2026
    Amendments to articles or bylaws · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report07 May 2026
  • Current report07 May 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Proxy statement30 Mar 2026
  • Annual report11 Feb 2026
  • Current report05 Feb 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Arrow Electronics, Inc. · 11 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-07-04 · SEC / Arrow Electronics, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Arrow Electronics, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.