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olivLaw · US equity research

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings, Inc. AVAH

Services-Home Health Care Services · SIC 8082 · Vertical: Services-Home Health Care Services (SIC 8082)

13.67USD−3.94% · 1 dayClose 05 Nov 2026

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings provides home healthcare, mainly private duty nursing for children and adults with complex needs, as a lower-cost alternative to hospitalization. The company grew revenue 13.7% in the second quarter of 2026 and raised its annual guidance, while Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement rules remain a key variable.

At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Aveanna Healthcare Holdings, Inc. (AVAH) stock was 13.67 USD (−3.94% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.0 bn USD, P/E 11.1 on diluted EPS of 1.23 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.89, 52-week range 6.22–14.38 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2027): revenue of 670.5 m USD (+13.7% YoY), net income of 40.3 m USD (+49.1% YoY), diluted EPS 0.18 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
3.0 bn USD
shares as of 07 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
11.1
Diluted EPS TTM 1.23 · TTM to 04 Jul 2026
E/P (TTM)
9.00%
TTM to 04 Jul 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.89
Volatility (1y) 48%
52-week range
6.2214.38

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
59.1
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
11.87 – 13.99
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.85 · band width 16.4%
SMA 50 / 200
13.11 / 9.32
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.25 / 0.14
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+11.9%−1.1%+13.0 pp—
3 months+46.8%−0.5%+47.3 pp—
6 months+97.0%+4.4%+92.6 pp—
Year to date+67.3%+12.3%+55.0 pp—
1 year+48.4%+13.5%+34.9 pp+5.5%
3 years+823.6%+76.4%+747.2 pp+0.0%
5 years+63.5%+63.7%−0.2 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−36.3%
15 Jan 2026 → 10 Apr 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−92.4%
10 Nov 2021 → 29 Dec 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+10.3%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2027 · 04 Jul 2026

Revenue
670.5 m USD
+13.7% YoY
Net income
40.3 m USD
+49.1% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.18
+38.5% YoY
net / operating
6.0% / 11.9%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26Q4 '26Q1 '27Q2 '27
Revenue509.0 m519.9 m559.2 m589.6 m621.9 m662.5 m647.9 m670.5 m
Cost of revenue349.3 m348.2 m375.7 m378.8 m419.1 m449.2 m442.5 m452.0 m
Gross profit159.7 m171.7 m183.6 m210.8 m202.8 m213.3 m205.4 m218.5 m
SG&A88.2 m88.7 m91.4 m90.1 m95.4 m97.6 m95.8 m97.1 m
Operating income34.0 m45.8 m51.8 m80.0 m53.6 m71.0 m69.3 m80.0 m
Depreciation & amortisation2.6 m2.4 m2.6 m2.6 m2.6 m2.7 m3.0 m2.8 m
Interest expense39.2 m38.1 m36.3 m36.0 m35.1 m32.6 m29.2 m27.8 m
Pre-tax income-27.3 m26.9 m10.1 m44.1 m13.4 m39.2 m45.0 m56.5 m
Income tax15.5 m-2.2 m5.0 m17.1 m-647.0 k-139.5 m3.3 m16.2 m
Net income-42.8 m29.2 m5.2 m27.0 m14.1 m178.8 m41.7 m40.3 m
Diluted EPS-0.220.15 ≈0.030.130.060.80 ≈0.190.18
Operating cash flow29.4 m ≈13.4 m-8.6 m51.6 m ≈33.2 m ≈49.7 m4.3 m80.9 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 5.4, median 7.4, max 7.9; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year201920212022202320242026
Revenue1.4 bn1.5 bn1.8 bn1.9 bn2.0 bn2.4 bn
Revenue YoYunavailableunavailable+19.6%+6.0%+6.8%unavailable
Net income-76.5 m-57.1 m-662.0 m-134.5 m-10.9 m225.0 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPSunavailableunavailable-3.57-0.71-0.061.05
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %-5.5%-3.8%-37.0%-7.1%-0.5%9.2%
Free cash flow-25.4 m101.4 m-64.4 munavailableunavailableunavailable

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2026 · 03 Jan 2026

Cash
193.3 m USD
Financial debt
1.3 bn USD
Net debt
1.1 bn USD
Equity
194.5 m USD
Total assets
2.0 bn USD
Debt / equity
6.68x
Current ratio
1.32x
ROE
unavailable
ROA
11.2%
FCF margin
unavailable

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
1.9 bn
2024
2.0 bn
2026
2.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.4 bn
2026
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
595.4 m
2024
635.5 m
2026
810.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

SG&A
2023
361.0 m
2024
352.8 m
2026
374.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
8.1 m
2024
139.8 m
2026
256.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
13.8 m
2024
10.8 m
2026
10.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
21.9 m ≈
2024
150.6 m ≈
2026
267.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
153.2 m
2024
156.6 m
2026
140.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-139.0 m
2024
5.1 m
2026
106.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
-4.5 m
2024
16.0 m
2026
-118.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
-134.5 m
2024
-10.9 m
2026
225.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-0.71
2024
-0.06
2026
1.05

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
190.0 m
2024
192.9 m
2026
215.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
43.9 m
2024
84.3 m
2026
193.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
236.6 m
2024
265.2 m
2026
313.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
314.9 m
2024
392.7 m
2026
560.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
20.5 m
2024
17.4 m
2026
16.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
1.1 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2026
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
94.0 m
2024
89.6 m
2026
92.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
1.6 bn
2024
1.7 bn
2026
2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
9.2 m
2024
9.2 m
2026
13.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.3 bn
2026
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
354.8 m
2024
402.2 m
2026
424.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
1.7 bn
2024
1.8 bn
2026
1.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
-129.6 m †
2024
-123.6 m †
2026
194.5 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
22.7 m
2024
32.6 m
2026
125.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
—
2024
—
2026
—

SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2022verified

Free cash flow
2023
—
2024
—
2026
—

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2023derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-8.8 m
2024
-6.3 m
2026
-22.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
10.8 m
2024
14.0 m
2026
5.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
Revenue CAGR 3Y
8.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Revenue CAGR 5Y
10.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing

Profitability

Gross margin
32.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
EBITDA margin
11.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
EBIT margin
10.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
Net margin
10.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
FCF margin
unavailable
input data missing

Returns

ROE
199.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
ROA
14.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
ROIC
17.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
ROCE
16.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
1.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
4.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Debt / equity
4.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Interest coverage
2.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Jul 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
168.2 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
Capital expenditure
unavailable
input data missing
Free cash flow
unavailable
input data missing
FCF conversion
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion
59.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
46 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
3.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Enterprise value
4.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
10.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
11.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
Earnings yield
9.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
P/B
10.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
P/S
1.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
EV/EBITDA
14.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
EV/EBIT
15.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
EV/Sales
1.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
input data missing
FCF yield
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 49 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

13.67 USD

05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 3.0 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
3.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
11.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
P/B
10.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
EV/EBITDA
14.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
ROE
199.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 04 Jul 2026
Net margin
10.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 04 Jul 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

30/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2026
Latest reported period: 04 Jul 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 04 Jul 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 07 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 13 Aug 2026
verified 958derived 66

Score by group

  • Valuation44
  • Growth72
  • Balance sheet9
  • Quality93

Estimated value range

Low
20.76
USD per share
Mid
22.72
USD per share
High
26.84
USD per share
Price: 13.67 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 66.2% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 39.8% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 14.06 – 34.52 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the input exists, but its latest figure is far older than the latest reported period: not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA14.06 – 19.15 (Mid 15.76)
    3 companies used · median multiple 16.3x · quartiles 15.0x – 18.9x
    BTSG, CHE, OPCH
  • Peers: P/E27.45 – 34.52 (Mid 29.67)
    4 companies used · median multiple 24.1x · quartiles 22.3x – 28.1x
    ADUS, BTSG, CHE, OPCH
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Services-Home Health Care Services (SIC 8082)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 49/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality17.3%100 (on a fixed band)16%
Net margin · Quality10.6%80 (vs peers)9%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth8.7%72 (on a fixed band)13%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet4.2x0 (on a fixed band)16%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet2.2x11 (on a fixed band)9%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.2x30 (on a fixed band)6%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation11.1x86 (on a fixed band)16%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation14.7x3 (on a fixed band)16%
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet9/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial72/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality93/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation44/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-07-04.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.4 bn USD in 2026; net margin 10.6%; ROE 199.6%; net debt/EBITDA 4.2x.

The estimated value range is 20.76–26.84 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 22.72 USD, the price of 13.67 USD leaves a potential of 66.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 39.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 49/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 17.3%
  • Net margin: 10.6%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 8.7%
  • P/E (TTM): 11.1x
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • Net debt / EBITDA: 4.2x
  • Interest coverage: 2.2x
  • EV/EBITDA: 14.7x
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Services-Home Health Care Services (SIC 8082) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
11.1x
vertical median 24.1x
below median (−53.9%)
EV/EBITDA
14.7x
vertical median 16.3x
below median (−9.8%)
P/S
1.1x
vertical median 0.9x
above median (+33.4%)
P/B
10.4x
vertical median 3.6x
above median (+191.5%)
ROE
199.6%
vertical median 16.0%
above median (+1,144.5%)
Net margin
10.6%
vertical median 3.7%
above median (+182.2%)
EBIT margin
10.5%
vertical median 5.9%
above median (+78.9%)
Revenue YoY
—
vertical median 13.0%
Net debt/EBITDA
4.2x
vertical median 2.1x
above median (+100.1%)
Dividend yield
—
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
BTSGBrightSpring Health Services, Inc.13.1 bn35.720.5%2.7%+28.2%+82% / unavailable
CHEChemed Corporation6.9 bn25.529.1%10.6%+4.1%+22% / −6%
OPCHOption Care Health, Inc.4.7 bn22.716.0%3.7%+13.0%+1% / +6%
AVAHAveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.3.0 bn11.1199.6%10.6%unavailable+48% / +824%
ADUSAddus HomeCare Corp2.4 bn21.110.0%7.4%+23.2%+5% / +45%
AHCOAdaptHealth Corp.1.0 bn—-28.6%-11.4%−0.5%−23% / −13%

1- and 3-year price returns: for AVAH from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
8.62
Total return -37% · Per year -37%
15.21
Total return 11% · Per year 11%
22.87
Total return 67% · Per year 67%
3 years
9.09
Total return -34% · Per year -13%
17.97
Total return 31% · Per year 10%
29.56
Total return 116% · Per year 29%
5 years
9.58
Total return -30% · Per year -7%
21.23
Total return 55% · Per year 9%
38.21
Total return 179% · Per year 23%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 4.49
  • Net margin± 3.14
  • Annual revenue growth± 2.48
  • Annual dilution± 0.26

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings provides home healthcare, mainly private duty nursing for children and adults with complex needs, as a lower-cost alternative to hospitalization. The company grew revenue 13.7% in the second quarter of 2026 and raised its annual guidance, while Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement rules remain a key variable 123.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The platform holds a strong position in pediatric private duty nursing, with close ties to children's hospitals and payers 1.
  • Its technology infrastructure and dedicated integration office allow several acquisitions to be pursued at once without disrupting operations 1.
  • Revenue growth and the raised 2026 guidance point to solid operating execution across all segments 23.

Weaknesses

  • Dependence on Medicare and Medicaid means reimbursement cuts affect results directly 1.
  • Gross margin declined in the recent period compared with the prior year, which signals cost pressure from clinical staffing 3.
  • High indebtedness and interest costs, partly managed with hedging instruments, limit financial flexibility 3.

Opportunities

  • The Family First Homecare acquisition could extend pediatric presence into more states if integration follows plan 1.
  • Growing preference for home care and value-based payment models could open new payer contracts 1.
  • Expanding HHH and hospice services could diversify revenue if admission volumes hold 1.

Threats

  • Medicaid reforms and funding cuts could reduce the number of beneficiaries eligible for PDN services 1.
  • Consolidation among managed care organizations could lower negotiated rates or exclude providers 1.
  • CMS audits and recoupments of alleged overpayments could reduce net revenue in later periods 1.

Risks

  • Dependence on public reimbursementhigh

    Most revenue comes from government programs, and rate changes can materially reduce income 1.

  • Medicaid reformhigh

    Stricter eligibility and funding reductions could affect PDN service volumes 1.

  • Debt and interest costmedium

    Total indebtedness is significant, and variable-rate exposure is only partly hedged with financial instruments 3.

  • Acquisition integrationmedium

    Integrating Family First could encounter operational or staffing difficulties that affect the expected return 1.

  • Pressure on clinical staffmedium

    Reliance on nurses and qualified personnel can raise costs and limit the ability to recruit 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Revenue growth and a raised guidance show the model can expand organically and through acquisitions 23.
  • Leadership in pediatric home nursing and payer partnerships could support a stable market position 1.
  • Demand for home care, which costs less than hospitalization, gives a structural base for growth 1.

What would break the thesis

  • Reimbursement cuts and Medicaid reform could compress margins over the medium term 1.
  • High debt and interest costs could limit the capacity to fund new acquisitions 3.
  • Payer pressure and CMS audits could reduce net revenue in future periods 1.

What to watch

  • Closing of the Family First Homecare acquisition and its effect on PDS revenueQ3 2026
  • Delivery against fiscal 2026 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance2026
  • Trend in gross margin and clinical staffing costsQ3 2026
  • Effects of Medicaid reform and Medicare adjustments on reimbursement2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Aveanna presents itself as a diversified home care platform focused on medically complex, high-cost patients. Its model relies on caregivers, mainly skilled nurses, and on proprietary technology for recruiting, scheduling and clinical documentation 1. Revenue reached 2433.2 million USD in fiscal 2025 1.

The company was incorporated in Delaware in 2016 and has traded on Nasdaq since April 2021, with headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia 1. Its strategy combines organic growth with acquisitions, and an integration office prepares an integration plan before signing 1. In March 2026 Aveanna announced the acquisition of Family First Homecare, a pediatric home care provider, for 175.5 million USD in cash 1.

The company says its partnerships with managed care and government payers, together with its one-stop-shop service model, allow it to staff more cases and maintain stronger hospital referral relationships 1. Management describes these advantages as reinforcing volume and profitability over time 1.

Segments

Home Health & Hospice (HHH)

The HHH segment provides in-home care for mainly elderly patients, post-hospital recovery and hospice services for terminally ill patients 1. Its quarterly revenue rose compared with the prior year, according to the quarterly report 3.

Medical Solutions (MS)

The MS segment supplies enteral nutrition products and respiratory equipment, with more than 300 nutritional formulas available 1. It is the smallest segment, and its quarterly revenue also rose compared with the comparable 2025 quarter 3.

Market context

The U.S. home care market is fragmented, with many local and regional providers, and the pediatric and complex-care niches have higher entry barriers linked to staffing and payer relationships 1. Demand is supported by the preference of patients and the health system for care at home, which is less costly than hospitalization 1.

Services are funded almost entirely by Medicare, Medicaid and private insurers, so reimbursement levels and public program rules are the decisive factors for margins 1. Recent Medicare payment adjustments and Medicaid reforms directly affect this market 1.

Trends

  • Lower Medicare reimbursement for home healthheadwind

    CMS final rules for 2026 reduced Medicare rates after an even more restrictive proposal; if reductions repeat, margins in the HHH segment could be compressed 1.

  • Medicaid reform under OBBBAheadwind

    The One Big Beautiful Bill Act reduces federal Medicaid spending and introduces stricter eligibility conditions, which could shrink the beneficiary pool and PDN revenue 1.

  • Rising demand for home caretailwind

    The preference for care at home, which is cheaper than hospitalization, supports patient volumes and the company's appeal to hospitals and payers 1.

  • Consolidation of managed care payersmixed

    Managed care organizations concentrate their networks on fewer providers, which can favor large-scale providers but may also exclude smaller ones 1.

Competitive position

Aveanna faces competition from community home health providers, national, regional and local hospice companies, hospital-based home health agencies and nursing homes 1. Larger competitors may have greater financial and technological resources, and nonprofits can finance investments on tax-advantaged terms 1.

The company's advantage rests on national scale, local density and payer partnerships, which it describes as difficult to replicate 1. In markets without certificate-of-need rules, entry is relatively easy, which keeps competitive pressure high 1.

  • Community home health providers

    Local organizations competing on staff availability and service quality 1.

  • National, regional and local hospice companies

    Operators with greater financial and marketing resources active in the HHH segment 1.

  • Hospital-based home health agencies

    Providers integrated into hospital systems that can take over patients after discharge 1.

  • Nonprofit care organizations

    Entities that can finance acquisitions and capital spending on tax-advantaged terms unavailable to the company 1.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 18 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 02 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-01-03 · SEC / Aveanna Healthcare Holdings, Inc. · 19 Mar 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-07-04 · SEC / Aveanna Healthcare Holdings, Inc. · 13 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Aveanna Healthcare Holdings, Inc. · 13 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.