olivLaw · US equity research
China Yuchai International Limited CYD
Engines & Turbines · SIC 3510 · Vertical: Engines & Turbines (SIC 3510)
China Yuchai International is a Bermuda holding company that controls Yuchai, a Chinese maker of diesel and natural gas engines. Revenue rose sharply in 2025, supported by demand for trucks, buses and data-centre power solutions, while China's decarbonisation policies put long-term pressure on diesel engines. Revenue reached RMB 24.7 billion, and engine unit sales reached 461,309 units.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, China Yuchai International Limited (CYD) stock was 21.51 USD (−3.06% on the day), with market capitalisation 807.0 m USD, P/E 18.9 on diluted EPS of 1.14 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.89, 52-week range 21.51–59.71 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 22.0
- oversold (≤ 30)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 20.23 – 29.75
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.13 · band width 38.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 30.94 / 42.49
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -2.73 / -2.79
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −32.5% | −1.1% | −31.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | −56.0% | −0.5% | −55.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | −50.3% | +4.4% | −54.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | −39.4% | +12.3% | −51.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | −39.6% | +13.5% | −53.1 pp | −5.2% |
| 3 years | +139.3% | +76.4% | +62.9 pp | +55.7% |
| 5 years | +65.5% | +63.7% | +1.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 8-quarter history (min 4.9, median 8.1, max 14.1; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.6 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.5 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.4 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −5.2% | +4.6% | +25.1% | +5.8% | −31.4% | +10.2% | +5.0% |
| Net income | 150.7 m | 103.9 m | 85.4 m | 84.8 m | 43.1 m | 31.4 m | 40.2 m | 45.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −31.0% | −17.8% | −0.7% | −49.2% | −27.1% | +27.8% | +12.0% |
| Diluted EPS | 3.70 | 2.54 | 2.09 | 2.08 | 1.06 | 0.77 | 0.98 | 1.14 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −31.4% | −17.7% | −0.5% | −49.0% | −27.4% | +27.3% | +16.3% |
| net % | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Free cash flow | 170.7 m | 39.3 m | 117.7 m | 128.4 m | -10.7 m | -79.2 m | 139.1 m | 58.4 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- 824.7 m USD
- Financial debt
- 349.9 m USD
- Net debt
- -474.8 m USD
- Equity
- 1.7 bn USD
- Total assets
- 3.8 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.20x
- Current ratio
- 1.55x
- ROE
- 2.6%
- ROA
- 1.2%
- FCF margin
- 2.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.5 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.4 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 2.1 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 438.4 m | 492.9 m | 466.9 m | 378.4 m | 410.4 m | 392.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
| Research & development | 69.5 m | 96.8 m | 134.3 m | 120.3 m | 123.4 m | 137.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
| Operating income | 161.8 m | 182.7 m | 105.0 m | 74.7 m | 85.8 m | 83.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 65.7 m | 76.4 m | 90.7 m | 89.9 m | 93.6 m | 99.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
| EBITDA | 227.4 m ≈ | 259.1 m ≈ | 195.7 m ≈ | 164.6 m ≈ | 179.4 m ≈ | 182.9 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025derived |
| Interest expense | 18.6 m | 23.4 m | 18.3 m | 13.7 m | 14.1 m | 10.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 145.8 m | 150.2 m | 71.4 m | 56.8 m | 80.4 m | 86.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
| Income tax | 24.4 m | 29.8 m | 6.9 m | 8.5 m | 20.9 m | 18.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
| Net income | 85.4 m | 84.8 m | 43.1 m | 31.4 m | 40.2 m | 45.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.09 | 2.08 | 1.06 | 0.77 | 0.98 | 1.14 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 40.9 m | 40.9 m | 40.9 m | 40.9 m | 40.9 m | 39.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 889.0 m | 929.7 m | 688.8 m | 626.7 m | 772.9 m | 824.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
| Receivables | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
| Inventories | 398.6 m | 690.9 m | 823.9 m | 710.3 m | 654.5 m | 648.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
| Current assets | 2.5 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 594.3 m | 658.1 m | 664.0 m | 574.8 m | 500.3 m | 476.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 134.7 m | 229.3 m | 278.2 m | 269.7 m | 274.7 m | 268.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
| Total assets | 3.4 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.0 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | 1.2 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | 290.1 m | 267.3 m | 332.6 m | 308.0 m | 260.5 m | 260.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 77.3 m | 15.8 m | 28.8 m | 97.1 m | 88.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.6 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.7 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
| Equity | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 40.9 m | 40.9 m | 40.9 m | 40.9 m | 40.9 m | 37.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 223.4 m | 218.7 m | 79.8 m | -17.2 m | 172.6 m | 108.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
| Capex | 105.7 m | 90.3 m | 90.5 m | 62.0 m | 33.5 m | 50.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | 117.7 m ≈ | 128.4 m ≈ | -10.7 m ≈ | -79.2 m ≈ | 139.1 m ≈ | 58.4 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -114.4 m | -121.4 m | -116.9 m | -19.1 m | -15.9 m | 15.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -83.2 m | -71.4 m | -132.6 m | -20.2 m | -4.8 m | -73.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 61 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 807.0 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
- Balance sheet91
- Growth8
- Valuation80
- Quality48
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 21.28 – 124.72 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)35.20 – 50.91 (Mid 40.89)WACC 7.9% · starting FCFF 67.1 m USD · terminal value share of EV 77%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDA67.07 – 124.72 (Mid 96.72)4 companies used · median multiple 17.2x · quartiles 11.2x – 23.0xBC, BWXT, CEPL, CMI
- Peers: P/E21.28 – 30.58 (Mid 27.22)3 companies used · median multiple 23.9x · quartiles 18.7x – 26.8xBWXT, CMI, PSIX
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 61/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 5.2% | 25 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Net margin · Quality | 1.7% | 33 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 129.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -7.4% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 2.5% | 16 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -2.6x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 7.7x | 95 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.6x | 63 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 18.9x | 51 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 1.8x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 7.2% | 91 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet91/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth8/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality48/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation80/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
China Yuchai International Limited (CYD). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.7 bn USD in 2024; YoY growth 5.0%; net margin 1.7%; ROE 3.5%; net debt/EBITDA -2.6x.
The estimated value range is 35.20–50.91 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 40.89 USD, the price of 21.51 USD leaves a potential of 90.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 47.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 61/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 129.8%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -2.6x
- Interest coverage: 7.7x
- EV/EBITDA: 1.8x
- FCF yield: 7.2%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 5.2%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -7.4%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 2.5%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Engines & Turbines (SIC 3510) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 6 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMICummins Inc. | 65.0 bn | 23.9 | 23.0% | 8.1% | −1.3% | −5% / +110% |
| BWXTBwx Technologies, Inc. | 11.1 bn | 29.8 | 28.2% | 10.4% | +18.3% | −32% / +56% |
| BCBrunswick Corporation | 5.3 bn | — | -4.8% | -1.5% | +2.4% | +23% / +3% |
| PSIXPower Solutions International, Inc. | 915.0 m | 13.5 | 40.1% | 10.0% | +51.8% | −27% / +1,317% |
| CYDChina Yuchai International Limited | 807.0 m | 18.9 | 3.5% | 1.7% | +5.0% | −40% / +139% |
| CEPLCapstone Energy Plus, Inc. | 50.4 m | — | — | 3.5% | +23.9% | unavailable / unavailable |
| WPRTWestport Fuel Systems Inc. | 33.0 m | — | -59.9% | -264.3% | −42.7% | −5% / −63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for CYD from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 12.11 Total return -44% · Per year -44% | 21.52 Total return 0% · Per year 0% | 32.56 Total return 51% · Per year 51% |
| 3 years | 9.61 Total return -55% · Per year -24% | 19.42 Total return -10% · Per year -3% | 32.56 Total return 51% · Per year 15% |
| 5 years | 7.63 Total return -65% · Per year -19% | 17.52 Total return -19% · Per year -4% | 32.56 Total return 51% · Per year 9% |
- Exit P/E± 4.85
- Net margin± 3.40
- Annual revenue growth± 3.07
- Annual dilution± 0.29
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (20 Oct 2026), 6-K (31 Aug 2026), 6-K (07 Aug 2026), 6-K (06 Aug 2026), 6-K (24 Jul 2026), 6-K (07 Jul 2026).
In brief
China Yuchai International is a Bermuda holding company that controls Yuchai, a Chinese maker of diesel and natural gas engines. Revenue rose sharply in 2025, supported by demand for trucks, buses and data-centre power solutions, while China's decarbonisation policies put long-term pressure on diesel engines. Revenue reached RMB 24.7 billion 1, and engine unit sales reached 461,309 units 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Control of an engine maker with a full portfolio compliant with current emission standards, and strong sales growth in 2025 1.
- Gross margin improvement, driven by volume and a richer mix of heavy-duty engines, shows the ability to reduce costs 1.
- Joint ventures and new energy investments provide access to technology and different market segments 1.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on a small number of large customers, one of which is also a competitor, exposes the company to volume loss 1.
- The core business rests on one holding, and holding-level income depends on Yuchai dividends 1.
- Research and development spending is rising, and selling and administrative costs grew faster than revenue in some periods 1.
Opportunities
Risks
- Dependence on large customershigh
A significant share of revenue comes from the largest customers, and losing one of them could materially affect results 1.
- Government policyhigh
Changes in emission rules, fuel consumption standards and incentives for new energy could alter demand for existing products 1.
- Intense competitionmedium
Price pressure and rising capacity among competitors could reduce margins 1.
- Chinese economic conditionsmedium
A slowdown in the economy or in industrial output could reduce demand and access to financing 1.
- Holding structure and dividendsmedium
The holding company depends on subsidiaries distributing funds, and Chinese currency restrictions could limit payments to shareholders 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If growth in trucks, buses and data-centre power continues, revenue and profitability could keep improving 1.
- Operating efficiency and cost reduction could support margins even under intense competition 1.
- International expansion and new energy investments could open growth sources outside the traditional Chinese market 1.
What would break the thesis
- Decarbonisation policies could reduce long-term demand for diesel engines, especially if electric alternatives gain share 1.
- Dependence on a few large customers, one of which is also a competitor, could affect volumes and prices 1.
- The holding structure and currency restrictions could limit dividends available to shareholders outside China 1.
What to watch
- Unit sales trends in the truck and bus segments and growth in data-centre engine salesQ1 2027
- Official timeline for the National VII and Tier-5 emission standards2027
- Trend in gross margin and research and development costsnext 10-K
- Progress of new energy projects and the Vietnam factory2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (20 Oct 2026), 6-K (31 Aug 2026), 6-K (07 Aug 2026), 6-K (06 Aug 2026), 6-K (24 Jul 2026), 6-K (07 Jul 2026).
The business
China Yuchai International Limited is a holding company incorporated in Bermuda in 1993 that holds a controlling interest in Yuchai, its main operating asset 1. Yuchai, founded in 1951, designs, manufactures and sells light, medium and heavy-duty engines for trucks, buses, passenger vehicles, construction and agricultural equipment, marine and generator applications 1. The company also provides management and internal control services to Yuchai, and its cash flow has historically depended mainly on dividends from Yuchai and investment income 1.
Segments
Trends
- Stricter emission standardsmixed
The National VI standard, implemented in July 2021, and Tier-4 for off-road machinery require investment in technology, but Yuchai already has compliant portfolios 1. The National VII standard has no official timeline yet 1.
- Demand from data centres and powertailwind
AI and data-centre workloads are increasing demand for high-output power generation solutions, which could support sales in the power segment 1.
- Decarbonisation policiesheadwind
China's targets for peak emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 de-emphasise traditional diesel engines, which could reduce long-term demand 1.
- International expansiontailwind
Yuchai began production in Thailand in 2024 and signed a cooperation agreement for a factory in Vietnam, which could extend revenue beyond China 1.
Competitive position
The Chinese diesel engine industry is intensely competitive, with a few dominant domestic players and international joint ventures benefiting from economies of scale and integrated supply chains 1. Price pressure, excess capacity and the shift toward new energy could compress margins 1. A major customer, a large automaker group, is also a competitor, which adds further risk 1.
- Dominant domestic Chinese engine makers
The source refers to a few dominant domestic players without naming them; their identity should be verified separately.
- International joint ventures in Chinese diesel
The source refers to established international joint ventures active in China without naming them.
- Automaker group customer with in-house engine divisions
The largest customer may buy engines from within its own group or from rivals, which reduces Yuchai's share.
- New energy power system competitors
The source mentions growing emphasis on new energy systems without identifying specific competitors.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)20 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)31 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)07 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)06 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)24 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)07 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)02 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)19 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)14 May 2026
- Annual report (foreign issuer)29 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / China Yuchai International Limited · 29 Apr 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.