olivLaw · US equity research
Duke Energy Corporation DUK
Electric & Other Services Combined · SIC 4931 · Vertical: Electric & Other Services Combined (SIC 4931)
Duke Energy is one of the largest energy holding companies in the US, supplying electricity and natural gas through regulated utilities in six states across the Southeast and Midwest. The company is in a period of accelerating demand growth driven by data centers and electrification, and its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance is 6.55 to 6.80 USD.
At the close of 30 Oct 2026, Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) stock was 127.39 USD (+1.18% on the day), with market capitalisation 99.3 bn USD, P/E 19.4 on diluted EPS of 6.55 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.33%, beta -0.11, 52-week range 113.23–133.46 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q1 2026): revenue of 9.0 bn USD (+9.5% YoY), net income of 1.6 bn USD (+12.4% YoY), diluted EPS 1.97 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 69.7
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 112.80 – 128.41
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.93 · band width 12.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 119.11 / 124.36
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 2.24 / 1.46
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +11.7% | −0.9% | +12.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | +1.6% | +1.2% | +0.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | −0.9% | +4.8% | −5.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | +8.7% | +10.7% | −2.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | +1.7% | +11.1% | −9.4 pp | +3.9% |
| 3 years | +43.3% | +80.7% | −37.4 pp | +34.7% |
| 5 years | +24.9% | +64.6% | −39.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q1 2026 · 31 Mar 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q2 '24 | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.2 bn | 8.1 bn | 7.2 bn | 8.2 bn | 7.4 bn | 8.4 bn | 7.8 bn | 9.0 bn |
| Operating income | 1.7 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.3 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.7 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 1.6 bn ≈ | 1.7 bn ≈ | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.0 bn ≈ | 2.1 bn ≈ | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn |
| Interest expense | 824.0 m | 872.0 m | 871.0 m | 889.0 m | 897.0 m | 902.0 m | 946.0 m | 968.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 1.1 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.9 bn |
| Income tax | 140.0 m | 163.0 m | 109.0 m | 193.0 m | 119.0 m | 176.0 m | 154.0 m | 333.0 m |
| Net income | 900.0 m | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 984.0 m | 1.4 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.6 bn |
| Diluted EPS | 1.13 | 1.60 | 1.56 ≈ | 1.76 | 1.25 | 1.81 | 1.52 ≈ | 1.97 |
| Operating cash flow | 3.0 bn ≈ | 3.5 bn ≈ | 3.4 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.9 bn ≈ | 3.6 bn ≈ | 3.7 bn | 1.5 bn |
| Capex | 3.0 bn ≈ | 3.0 bn ≈ | 3.1 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.3 bn ≈ | 3.5 bn ≈ | 4.1 bn | 4.1 bn |
| Dividends paid | 784.0 m ≈ | 821.0 m ≈ | 802.0 m | 803.0 m | 807.0 m ≈ | 845.0 m ≈ | 845.0 m | 846.0 m |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 31 percentile of its own 35-quarter history (min 16.1, median 21.3, max 62.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 23.8 bn | 24.3 bn | 23.3 bn | 24.5 bn | 28.7 bn | 28.7 bn | 30.1 bn | 31.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +2.5% | −4.5% | +5.3% | +17.1% | −0.0% | +4.8% | +5.6% |
| Net income | 2.7 bn | 3.7 bn | 1.4 bn | 3.9 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.8 bn | 4.5 bn | 5.0 bn |
| Net income YoY | −12.8% | +40.6% | −63.3% | +183.8% | −34.7% | +11.4% | +59.2% | +9.8% |
| Diluted EPS | 3.76 | 5.06 | 1.72 | 4.94 | 3.17 | 3.54 | 5.71 | 6.31 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −13.8% | +34.6% | −66.0% | +187.2% | −35.8% | +11.7% | +61.3% | +10.5% |
| net % | 11.2% | 15.4% | 5.9% | 16.0% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 15.1% | 15.7% |
| Free cash flow | -2.2 bn | -2.9 bn | -1.1 bn | -1.4 bn | -5.4 bn | -2.7 bn | 48.0 m | -1.7 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 245.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 82.7 bn USD
- Net debt
- 82.5 bn USD
- Equity
- 53.0 bn USD
- Total assets
- 195.7 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 1.56x
- Current ratio
- 0.55x
- ROE
- 9.5%
- ROA
- 2.6%
- FCF margin
- -5.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 23.3 bn | 24.5 bn | 28.7 bn | 28.7 bn | 30.1 bn | 31.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 6.1 bn | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2021verified |
| Gross profit | 17.2 bn ≈ | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2023derived |
| Operating income | 4.6 bn | 5.5 bn | 6.0 bn | 7.1 bn | 7.9 bn | 8.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 5.5 bn | 5.7 bn | 5.8 bn | 6.1 bn | 6.4 bn | 7.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 10.1 bn ≈ | 11.2 bn ≈ | 11.9 bn ≈ | 13.2 bn ≈ | 14.3 bn ≈ | 16.3 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.4 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 920.0 m | 4.0 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -169.0 m | 268.0 m | 300.0 m | 438.0 m | 590.0 m | 642.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 1.4 bn | 3.9 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.8 bn | 4.5 bn | 5.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.72 | 4.94 | 3.17 | 3.54 | 5.71 | 6.31 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 738.0 m | 769.0 m | 770.0 m | 771.0 m | 772.0 m | 777.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 3.82 | 3.90 | 3.98 | 4.06 | 4.14 | 4.22 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 259.0 m | 341.0 m | 409.0 m | 253.0 m | 314.0 m | 245.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.0 bn | 1.9 bn | 16.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 8.7 bn | 9.9 bn | 13.2 bn | 12.8 bn | 13.0 bn | 11.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 106.8 bn | 105.5 bn | 111.7 bn | 115.3 bn | 121.6 bn | 130.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 19.3 bn | 19.3 bn | 19.3 bn | 19.3 bn | 19.0 bn | 19.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 295.0 m | 236.0 m | 265.0 m | 282.0 m | 277.0 m | 291.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 162.4 bn | 169.6 bn | 178.1 bn | 176.9 bn | 186.3 bn | 195.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 3.1 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.2 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 2.9 bn | 3.3 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.3 bn | 3.6 bn | 2.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 55.6 bn | 60.4 bn | 65.9 bn | 72.5 bn | 76.3 bn | 80.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 16.3 bn | 15.9 bn | 18.9 bn | 17.3 bn | 19.4 bn | 21.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 49.2 bn | 51.1 bn | 51.9 bn | 50.2 bn | 51.3 bn | 53.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 8.9 bn | 8.3 bn | 5.9 bn | 9.9 bn | 12.3 bn | 12.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 9.9 bn | 9.7 bn | 11.4 bn | 12.6 bn | 12.3 bn | 14.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -1.1 bn ≈ | -1.4 bn ≈ | -5.4 bn ≈ | -2.7 bn ≈ | 48.0 m ≈ | -1.7 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -10.6 bn | -10.9 bn | -12.0 bn | -12.5 bn | -13.1 bn | -14.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 1.7 bn | 2.6 bn | 6.1 bn | 2.4 bn | 859.0 m | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 2.8 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
3 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 67 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
30 Oct 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 99.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet51
- Valuation74
- Returns80
- Quality50
- Growth80
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 55.46 – 215.61 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)55.46 – 74.58 (Mid 63.61)
- Peers: EV/EBITDA172.06 – 215.61 (Mid 189.26)7 companies used · median multiple 13.5x · quartiles 12.7x – 14.7xAEE, CMS, EVRG, EXC, LNT, WEC, XEL
- Peers: P/E123.25 – 144.93 (Mid 133.22)10 companies used · median multiple 20.3x · quartiles 18.8x – 22.1xAEE, CMS, ED, EVRG, EXC, LNT, NI, PEG, WEC, XEL
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 67/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 5.8% | 40 (vs peers) | 6% |
| Net margin · Quality | 15.8% | 60 (vs peers) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 3.4% | 54 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 25.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 4.8x | 88 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.4x | 26 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.7x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 19.4x | 64 (vs peers) | 13% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 10.6x | 88 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Dividend yield · Returns | 3.3% | 82 (vs peers) | 15% |
| Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns | 64.7% | 76 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet51/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth80/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality50/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Returns80/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation74/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
Memo
Duke Energy CORP (DUK). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-03-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 31.7 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 5.6%; net margin 15.8%; ROE 9.8%; net debt/EBITDA 4.8x.
The estimated value range is 123.25–144.93 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 133.22 USD, the price of 127.39 USD leaves a potential of 4.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 4.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 67/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 25.8%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 4.8x
- EV/EBITDA: 10.6x
- Dividend yield: 3.3%
- Payout ratio (EPS): 64.7%
What contradicts it
- Interest coverage: 2.4x
- Current ratio: 0.7x
- The valuation methods diverge
Versus the vertical median
Electric & Other Services Combined (SIC 4931) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 11 companies
Only companies with a capitalisation between 12.2 bn and 782.1 bn (within 8× of the company's); 6 of the vertical were left out.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUKDuke Energy CORP | 99.3 bn | 19.4 | 9.8% | 15.8% | +5.6% | +2% / +43% |
| XELXcel Energy Inc | 51.2 bn | 18.6 | 11.4% | — | +1.2% | −2% / +35% |
| EXCExelon Corporation | 47.2 bn | 16.9 | 9.8% | 11.2% | +5.3% | +0% / +19% |
| EDConsolidated Edison Inc | 43.0 bn | 19.6 | 8.7% | 12.5% | +10.9% | +20% / +33% |
| WECWec Energy Group, Inc. | 38.2 bn | 21.0 | 12.5% | 17.6% | +14.0% | +4% / +43% |
| PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Incorporated | 37.0 bn | 18.5 | 11.8% | 16.0% | +18.3% | −8% / +21% |
| PCGPg&E Corp | 35.3 bn | 9.5 | 9.7% | 12.3% | +2.1% | −17% / −19% |
| AEEAmeren Corp | 30.6 bn | 19.4 | 12.1% | 17.9% | +15.4% | +8% / +46% |
| CMSCms Energy Corp | 22.0 bn | 21.0 | 11.3% | 11.6% | +13.6% | −5% / +29% |
| NINiSource Inc. | 21.4 bn | 22.8 | 10.1% | 8.2% | +23.5% | +6% / +77% |
| EVRGEvergy, Inc. | 19.8 bn | 22.8 | 8.8% | 14.6% | +2.0% | +12% / +75% |
| LNTAlliant Energy Corp | 18.5 bn | 22.5 | 11.3% | 18.6% | +9.6% | +7% / +47% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for DUK from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 74.93 Total return -39% · Per year -39% | 132.54 Total return 8% · Per year 8% | 199.74 Total return 61% · Per year 61% |
| 3 years | 71.19 Total return -36% · Per year -14% | 141.83 Total return 22% · Per year 7% | 234.90 Total return 98% · Per year 26% |
| 5 years | 67.63 Total return -35% · Per year -8% | 151.77 Total return 38% · Per year 7% | 276.24 Total return 142% · Per year 19% |
- Exit P/E± 35.46
- Net margin± 24.82
- Annual revenue growth± 20.58
- Annual dilution± 2.09
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Duke Energy is one of the largest energy holding companies in the US, supplying electricity and natural gas through regulated utilities in six states across the Southeast and Midwest. The company is in a period of accelerating demand growth driven by data centers and electrification, and its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance is 6.55 to 6.80 USD 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- A regulated customer base and a broad territory in the Southeast and Midwest provide predictable revenue and a strong market position 1.
- A long dividend history and earnings growth guidance through 2030 support long-term investor confidence 3.
- The nuclear fleet and diversified generation portfolio provide low-emission energy and resources suited to future load 12.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on state regulatory decisions means that delays or rate reductions can directly affect financial results 1.
- Higher depreciation and interest expense on an expanding asset base weigh on quarterly profitability 3.
- Industrial sales remained soft in 2025, showing the exposure of part of the customer base to economic conditions 1.
Opportunities
- Demand from data centers and electrification could drive additional grid and generation investment 2.
- Capital transactions such as the Brookfield investment in Duke Energy Florida could fund the capital plan without additional dilutive issuance 12.
- The sale of nuclear tax credits and new operating licenses could lower customer costs and strengthen competitiveness 2.
Risks
- Regulatory approvals for investmenthigh
Recovery of investments depends on state commission approvals, and unfavorable decisions could affect results and cash flows 1.
- Coal ash regulationhigh
EPA rules and closure costs for ash basins could end up above current estimates if the rules remain in effect 2.
- Changes in federal energy policymedium
Changes to federal policy on tax credits and emissions could affect the business model and energy costs 1.
- Competition from customers and new technologiesmedium
Self-generation and distributed solar could reduce sales volume and long-term recovery of fixed costs 1.
- Extreme weather eventslow
Storms and extreme temperatures can create restoration costs and service interruptions, and recovery of these depends on regulation 12.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand from data centers and electrification strengthens, the company could convert grid investment into sustained growth of its regulated asset base 2.
- Earnings growth guidance through 2030, with confidence to earn in the upper half of the range from 2028, could support long-term investor confidence 3.
- Completed strategic transactions could provide financial flexibility and reduce the need for additional equity issuance 2.
What would break the thesis
- If regulatory approvals are delayed or rates are reduced, investment recovery could be slower than expected 1.
- Environmental and compliance costs tied to coal ash and emissions could exceed current forecasts and pressure margins 12.
- Higher depreciation and interest could reduce profitability, particularly if investments are not recovered on time 3.
What to watch
- Completion of the Carolinas utility combination and the new rate frameworkJanuary 1, 2027
- Quarterly results and reaffirmation of 2026 adjusted EPS guidanceQ3 2026
- Final EPA decision on changes to coal ash rules2027
- Further staged investments by Brookfield in Duke Energy Floridathrough 2028
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Generation is diversified: natural gas and fuel oil, nuclear and coal are the principal sources, complemented by hydroelectric and solar power 1. The company owns 11 operating nuclear reactors, some of which have received license extensions, an important element of its carbon reduction goals 12. The current strategy focuses on grid investment and new generation capacity, partly funded by recent strategic transactions 2.
Segments
Gas Utilities and Infrastructure
The gas segment serves customers in North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio and Kentucky, and in 2026 sold its Tennessee business to Spire 23. Its contribution to total profit is small, and quarterly results were nearly flat as investment growth was offset by the effect of the sale 3.
Market context
The company's core market is regulated, with a state regulator in each jurisdiction, which limits direct competition in distribution. Competition comes mainly from on-site generation by industrial and commercial customers, distributed solar and municipalities that could establish their own utilities 1. Demand growth comes from population growth, economic development and data centers; weather-normal sales grew in 2025 while industrial sales stayed soft 1.
Over the longer term, energy demand could keep growing if economic development and electrification continue, supporting the company's investment plans 2. However, efficiency adoption and distributed energy could reduce average usage per residential customer, and macroeconomic factors such as high interest rates may weigh on industrial consumption 1.
Trends
- Rising demand from data centerstailwind
Data center development is a significant contributor to projected load growth, and the company has expanded its portfolio of such service agreements with financial protections meant to avoid costs for other customers 2. If this trend holds, it could support grid and generation investment 2.
- Regulatory modernizationtailwind
New laws in Ohio, South Carolina and North Carolina, including rate stabilization mechanisms and more timely fuel cost recovery, could improve the timing of investment recovery 1. This framework supports long-term earnings 1.
- Environmental rules on coal ash and emissionsheadwind
The 2024 EPA rules on coal ash and greenhouse gas emissions add compliance and closure costs; the company is challenging them in court, and the EPA proposed changes in 2026 that could be material 12. Costs could be recovered through rates, but the risk remains 2.
- Development of gas and nuclear capacitymixed
New natural gas plants and nuclear license extensions could provide reliable, low-emission capacity, but depend on regulatory approvals and on the availability of labor and equipment 12. Federal nuclear tax credits could influence customer costs 1.
Competitive position
In distribution, Duke Energy operates as the sole supplier in its service territories, except in Ohio, which has a competitive generation market 1. In wholesale sales the company competes with other utilities and merchant generators, where the main factors are capacity availability, reliability and price 1. Competition from customer self-generation and distributed solar is also growing 1.
The cited sources do not identify specific publicly listed competitors in detail, so the competitive analysis is limited to other utilities and generators in the region and to customers who generate their own power 1. For this reason, competitor tickers are left unassigned.
- Other regional utilities and wholesale generators
Compete for wholesale sales and capacity; not identified by name in the cited sources.
- Municipalities with their own utilities
The establishment of municipal utilities in service territories could intensify competition.
- Distributed solar providers
Customer solar installations reduce grid electricity sales, especially in residential segments.
- Industrial customers with self-generation
Large consumers producing their own power could reduce demand addressed to the company.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Duke’s Mayo CEO: Our Room for Growth Is SubstantialBloomberg Markets · 26 Oct 2026 · EN
- Collins, Jackson duke it out in third Maine Senate debate: 3 takeawaysThe Hill · 14 Oct 2026 · EN
- Fmr. Fed Governor Betsy Duke on CPI Amid Bank ResultsBloomberg Markets · 12 Oct 2026 · EN
- North Carolina Regulators Reject Duke Energy Gas Power PlantOil Price · 26 Sept 2026 · EN
- Duke and Duchess of Sussex granted security review after return to UKThe Guardian World · 14 Sept 2026 · EN
- Is Duke Energy Stock Underperforming the Nasdaq?Yahoo Finance — News · 03 Sept 2026 · EN
- Duke and Duchess of Sussex have arrived back in UK, say reportsThe Guardian World · 26 Aug 2026 · EN
- Duke Energy Seeks $1.75 Billion in Equity Units OfferingBloomberg Markets · 10 Aug 2026 · EN
- Duke of Sussex calls his legal battles with British media his ‘life’s work’The Guardian World · 07 Jul 2026 · RO
- Student drowns in River Wye while on Duke of Edinburgh’s Award trip to WalesThe Guardian World · 01 Jul 2026 · RO
- Duke of York’s theatre to be renamed after Tom StoppardThe Guardian World · 01 Jul 2026 · RO
- Greenspan 'Pioneered' Fed Communications, Says Betsy DukeBloomberg Markets · 22 Jun 2026 · EN
- Bobby Prince, composer for Doom, Wolfenstein 3D, and Duke Nukem 3D, has diedHacker News · 19 Jun 2026 · EN
- Former Fed Governor Duke Expects Dot Plot ‘To Go’ Under WarshBloomberg Markets · 16 Jun 2026 · EN
- Duke CEO Sees AI Fueling Power Growth at 10 Times Historic PaceBloomberg Markets · 03 Jun 2026 · EN
- Astronautul Charles Duke, membru al misiunii Apollo 16, interviu la Digi24 despre experința sa în spațiu: „E natura umană să explorăm”Digi24 · 10 May 2026 · RO
- Astronautul Charles Duke, unul dintre oamenii care au pășit pe Lună, vine la București pentru SpaceFEST 2026. Politehnica inaugurează o placă dedicată misiunii Apollo 16G4Media · 09 May 2026 · RO
- Placă comemorativă dedicată misiunii Apollo 16, inaugurată la Politehnica București, în prezența astronautului Charles DukeAgerpres · 08 May 2026 · RO
SEC filings
- Current report25 Sept 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report13 Aug 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report05 Aug 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report04 Aug 2026
- Current report04 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report17 Jul 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report06 Jul 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report13 May 2026Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 May 2026
- Current report05 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Duke Energy Corporation · 26 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Duke Energy Corporation · 04 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Duke Energy Corporation · 04 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.