olivLaw · US equity research
FinVolution Group FINV
Loan Brokers · SIC 6163 · Vertical: Nondepository credit (SIC 616x)
FinVolution Group is a fintech platform that connects younger borrowers with institutional funding partners, mainly in China but also in Indonesia, the Philippines and Australia. Net revenues reached 13.6 billion RMB in fiscal 2025 and net profit 2.5 billion RMB, while international expansion and new online marketing rules are reshaping growth conditions.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, FinVolution Group (FINV) stock was 2.90 USD (−4.61% on the day), with P/E 10.7 on diluted EPS of 0.27 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.63, 52-week range 2.83–6.18 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 43.5
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 2.78 – 3.17
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.32 · band width 13.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 3.17 / 4.55
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.09 / -0.11
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −3.7% | −5.9% | +2.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −39.8% | −4.6% | −35.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −43.2% | +0.2% | −43.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | −44.6% | +7.4% | −52.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | −50.8% | +8.2% | −59.0 pp | −48.3% |
| 3 years | −41.1% | +68.4% | −109.5 pp | −13.8% |
| 5 years | −52.9% | +56.5% | −109.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 8-quarter history (min 12.1, median 18.8, max 27.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | ⚠ 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 623.6 m | unavailable | unavailable | 9.5 bn | 11.1 bn | 12.5 m | 13.1 m | 13.6 m |
| Revenue YoY | +4.1% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +17.6% | — | +4.1% | +3.9% |
| Net income | 359.1 m | 340.8 m | 302.3 m | 393.7 m | 328.6 m | 329.7 m | 326.5 m | 363.6 m |
| Net income YoY | +115.7% | −5.1% | −11.3% | +30.2% | −16.5% | — | −1.0% | +11.4% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.20 | 0.27 | 0.23 | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −2.2% | −8.9% | +35.0% | −14.8% | — | +4.2% | +8.0% |
| net % | 57.6% | unavailable | unavailable | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2,627.6% | 2,498.8% | 2,679.2% |
| Free cash flow | 262.0 m | -37.9 m | 336.5 m | 90.2 m | 31.3 m | 123.3 m | 392.6 m | 255.0 m |
The series breaks before 2023: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 612.8 m USD
- Financial debt
- 37.2 m USD
- Net debt
- -575.6 m USD
- Equity
- 2.4 bn USD
- Total assets
- 3.6 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.02x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 16.0%
- ROA
- 10.6%
- FCF margin
- 1,879.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | 9.5 bn | 11.1 bn | 12.5 m | 13.1 m | 13.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Research & development | 56.7 m | 68.2 m | 71.3 m | 72.0 m | 68.1 m | 76.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 7.9 m | 5.9 m | 3.5 m | 3.2 m | 9.5 m | 9.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Interest expense | — | — | — | — | — | 4.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 371.5 m | 429.4 m | 396.7 m | 391.4 m | 389.8 m | 443.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 69.8 m | 37.8 m | 65.9 m | 55.6 m | 62.7 m | 79.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 302.3 m | 393.7 m | 328.6 m | 329.7 m | 326.5 m | 363.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.20 | 0.27 | 0.23 | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0.27 | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 403.4 m | 693.3 m | 527.2 m | 699.9 m | 640.2 m | 612.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 14.4 m | 17.6 m | 20.5 m | 19.9 m | 85.5 m | 91.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 7.7 m | 7.9 m | 7.3 m | 7.1 m | 6.9 m | 11.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 15.2 m | 15.5 m | 14.3 m | 13.9 m | 18.8 m | 38.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 2.3 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | — | — | 811.0 k | 766.0 k | 24.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | — | — | — | — | 12.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 988.8 m | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.3 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 338.2 m | 98.9 m | 39.0 m | 199.1 m | 396.4 m | 267.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 1.7 m | 8.7 m | 7.7 m | 75.8 m | 3.8 m | 12.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 336.5 m ≈ | 90.2 m ≈ | 31.3 m ≈ | 123.3 m ≈ | 392.6 m ≈ | 255.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 159.6 m | 313.0 m | -225.2 m | 199.1 m | -314.5 m | -312.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -473.8 m | -37.6 m | -115.4 m | -360.4 m | -85.3 m | -27.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 40.4 m | 49.8 m | 54.0 m | 60.6 m | 60.5 m | 73.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 58.2 m | 4.1 m | 49.4 m | 97.8 m | 88.1 m | 109.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
44% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.78 – 4.57 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E0.78 – 4.57 (Mid 2.46)4 companies used · median multiple 9.1x · quartiles 2.9x – 16.9xFIGR, ONIT, PFSI, TREE
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 2,679.2% | 100 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 70.1% | 57 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -89.3% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 5.5% | 37 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 10.7x | 88 (on a fixed band) | 24% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 28.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth18/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality79/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial88/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
FinVolution Group (FINV). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 13.6 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 3.9%; net margin 2,679.2%; ROE 16.3%.
The estimated value range is 0.78–4.57 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 2.46 USD, the price of 2.90 USD leaves a potential of -15.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -18.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 2,679.2%
- P/E (TTM): 10.7x
- Payout ratio (FCF): 28.6%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -89.3%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions).
Versus the vertical median
Nondepository credit (SIC 616x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PFSIPennyMac Financial Services, Inc. | 3.5 bn | 15.1 | 5.6% | 640.7% | −25.2% | −50% / −14% |
| FOAFinance Of America Companies Inc. | 803.7 m | — | -0.1% | -0.1% | +26.1% | −46% / +40% |
| TREELendingTree, Inc. | 543.8 m | 3.1 | 82.8% | 14.3% | +24.1% | −32% / +119% |
| BETRBetter Home & Finance Holding Company | 360.1 m | — | -267.7% | -112.6% | +52.0% | −61% / −17% |
| ONITOnity Group Inc. | 263.3 m | 2.3 | 23.0% | 11.1% | +9.3% | −28% / +25% |
| UWMCUWM Holdings Corp | 168.1 m | — | -2.7% | -1.0% | +18.2% | −72% / −70% |
| BLNEBeeline Holdings, Inc. | 20.0 m | — | -41.1% | -215.3% | +600.0% | −70% / −95% |
| FIGRFigure Technology Solutions, Inc. | — | 22.5 | 16.8% | 33.5% | +48.7% | −42% / unavailable |
| FINVFinVolution Group | — | 10.7 | 16.3% | 2,679.2% | +3.9% | −51% / −41% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for FINV from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (28 Aug 2026), 6-K (26 May 2026).
In brief
FinVolution Group is a fintech platform that connects younger borrowers with institutional funding partners, mainly in China but also in Indonesia, the Philippines and Australia. Net revenues reached 13.6 billion RMB in fiscal 2025 and net profit 2.5 billion RMB, while international expansion and new online marketing rules are reshaping growth conditions 1.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
- Southeast Asian markets and Australia offer growth potential in the young borrower segment if expansion is executed efficiently 1.
- Acquiring local licences could open access to more regulated markets with stronger borrower profiles 1.
- Product diversification, including offline consumer financing in Indonesia, could broaden the revenue base 1.
Threats
- New rules on marketing and data sharing could reduce the ability to attract customers and work with current partners 1.
- Rising delinquencies could weigh on profitability, especially if the trend persists 1.
- Competition from banks and online platforms could press on fees and on the cost of acquiring customers 1.
Risks
- Changing regulationhigh
The legal framework for online consumer finance in China is evolving, and interpreting new measures could force changes to the business model 1.
- Online marketing measureshigh
New rules could restrict promotional campaigns and require changes to advertising, affecting user acquisition 1.
- Credit riskmedium
The company bears credit risk on a substantial part of loans funded by partners, and rising delinquencies could affect results 1.
- International risksmedium
Operating in several countries exposes the company to currency moves, political instability and differing licensing requirements 1.
- Reliance on funding partnersmedium
Revenue depends on keeping and expanding partnerships with funding institutions, and limits on accepting credit enhancement could restrict access to funding 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- A large base of registered users and high repeat borrowing could support revenue if the platform keeps its position 1.
- A growing share from international markets could diversify revenue sources and reduce dependence on China 1.
- The capital light model could allow growth without taking on the full credit risk of the loans 1.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Effects of online marketing measures on user acquisition2026
- Trend in the 90 day+ delinquency rate in Chinanext 10-K
- Growth of origination volume in Indonesia, the Philippines and Australia2027
- Interpretation of credit information rules and any new licensing requirements2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (28 Aug 2026), 6-K (26 May 2026).
The business
The company earns revenue mainly from transaction service fees paid by institutional funding partners for borrower introduction, preliminary credit assessment and other services across the loan lifecycle 1. Its capital light model means it does not bear credit risk on loans funded by partners, though for most of these loans it gives quality assurance commitments 1. Operations run under the PPDai brand in China, AdaKami in Indonesia, JuanHand in the Philippines and Fundo in Australia 1.
Loans are generally short-term and unsecured, with a credit decision in about 10 minutes for first-time applicants and in as little as one minute for repeat borrowers 1. Most origination volume in China comes from borrowers who have borrowed on the platform before, indicating high borrower stickiness 1.
The company moved from a model where individual investors funded loans to one where institutional partners provide funding, changing its risk profile and revenue structure 1.
Segments
China
The China market is the company's foundation and generated 10.2 billion RMB of revenue in fiscal 2025, or 75.4% of the total 1. Origination volume was 186.3 billion RMB, and the outstanding loan balance was 68.3 billion RMB at 31 December 2025 1.
International markets
The international segment, covering Indonesia, the Philippines and Australia, is growing fast: revenue reached 3.3 billion RMB in 2025, or 24.6% of the total, up from 17.0% in 2023 1. The acquisition of a licensed lender in Australia in October 2025 moved the business into a more regulated and developed market 1.
Global operations
The LEGO strategy aims to transfer know-how in regulation, risk analytics and product development across jurisdictions to speed up market entry 1.
Market context
The company operates in online consumer lending, which the source describes as an emerging and evolving sector with a regulatory framework that remains uncertain 1. The China market relies heavily on institutional funding, while overseas growth comes from the adoption of online borrowing for consumption 1.
Sector development depends on expanding the base of borrowers and funding partners, managing credit risk and how regulators interpret platform activity 1.
Trends
- New online marketing rulesheadwind
Measures on online marketing of financial products, taking effect in September 2026, could limit promotional offers and customer acquisition methods, which could affect user acquisition 1.
- Credit information sharing rulesheadwind
Interpretation of the rules on credit information could require the company to obtain additional licences or change how it transmits data to funding partners 1.
- International expansionmixed
Expansion into Indonesia, the Philippines and Australia opens markets with younger populations, but also brings compliance costs and exposure to exchange rates and local rules 1.
- Portfolio qualityheadwind
The 90 day+ delinquency rate rose at the end of 2025, showing that loan performance could become a problem if the trend continues 1.
Competitive position
The company competes for borrowers and institutional funding partners with a broad range of players, from traditional financial institutions to emerging online platforms 1. The source does not detail individual competitors but notes that the sector has few established business models 1.
The company's edge rests on its recognised brand, proprietary data and big-data credit scoring, but competitive pressure could rise if new entrants draw on the same young customer base 1.
- Commercial and online banks
Institutional funding partners in China and overseas that fund loans but can also compete for the same customers 1.
- Consumer finance companies
Consumer finance and micro-loan firms offering similar products to comparable customer segments 1.
- Online lending platforms
Emerging fintech platforms that attract the same online borrowers, especially through digital campaigns 1.
- Southeast Asian lenders
Local players in Indonesia and the Philippines where the company competes for market share 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- FinVolution (FINV) Q2 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptYahoo Finance — News · 31 Aug 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)28 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)26 May 2026
- Annual report (foreign issuer)29 Apr 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)18 Mar 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)20 Nov 2025
- Current report (foreign issuer)21 Aug 2025
- Current report (foreign issuer)25 Jun 2025
- Current report (foreign issuer)20 Jun 2025
- Current report (foreign issuer)20 Jun 2025
- Current report (foreign issuer)20 Jun 2025
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / FinVolution Group · 29 Apr 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.