olivLaw · US equity research
Humana Inc. HUM
Hospital & Medical Service Plans · SIC 6324
Humana Inc. is one of the largest US health insurers, focused on Medicare Advantage and its CenterWell care services, with total revenues of about 129.7 billion USD in fiscal 2025. The company is currently under pressure on profitability because fewer of its Medicare Advantage plans carry high star ratings, and it bought MaxHealth in February 2026.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Humana Inc. (HUM) stock was 417.42 USD (−0.11% on the day), with market capitalisation 50.1 bn USD, P/E 44.5 on diluted EPS of 9.38 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.85%, beta 0.49, 52-week range 163.67–433.50 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q1 2026): revenue of 39.6 bn USD (+23.5% YoY), net income of 1.2 bn USD (−4.7% YoY), diluted EPS 9.83 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 53.7
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 398.98 – 438.83
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.46 · band width 9.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 402.84 / 310.44
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 4.05 / 5.57
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +3.3% | −1.1% | +4.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | +14.7% | −0.5% | +15.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | +69.5% | +4.4% | +65.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +63.0% | +12.3% | +50.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +48.1% | +13.5% | +34.5 pp | — |
| 3 years | −12.5% | +76.4% | −88.9 pp | — |
| 5 years | −7.9% | +63.7% | −71.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q1 2026 · 31 Mar 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q2 '24 | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 29.5 bn | 29.4 bn | 29.2 bn | 32.1 bn | 32.4 bn | 32.6 bn | 32.5 bn | 39.6 bn |
| SG&A | 3.1 bn | 3.3 bn | 4.2 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.0 bn |
| Operating income | 1.1 bn | 728.0 m | -543.0 m | 2.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 400.0 m | -808.0 m | 1.8 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 212.0 m | 210.0 m | 208.0 m | 183.0 m | 178.0 m | 173.0 m | 164.0 m | 163.0 m |
| Interest expense | 168.0 m | 169.0 m | 164.0 m | 160.0 m | 157.0 m | 168.0 m | 146.0 m | 193.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 901.0 m | 635.0 m | -906.0 m | 1.7 bn | 741.0 m | 134.0 m | -1.1 bn | 1.6 bn |
| Income tax | 223.0 m | 155.0 m | -216.0 m | 406.0 m | 179.0 m | -86.0 m | -249.0 m | 395.0 m |
| Net income | 679.0 m | 480.0 m | -693.0 m | 1.2 bn | 545.0 m | 195.0 m | -796.0 m | 1.2 bn |
| Diluted EPS | 5.62 | 3.98 | -5.74 ≈ | 10.30 | 4.51 | 1.62 | -6.58 ≈ | 9.83 |
| Operating cash flow | 1.2 bn ≈ | 1.9 bn ≈ | -528.0 m | 331.0 m | 1.3 bn ≈ | 971.0 m ≈ | -1.7 bn | 1.3 bn |
| Capex | 114.0 m ≈ | 130.0 m ≈ | 154.0 m | 95.0 m | 114.0 m ≈ | 135.0 m ≈ | 202.0 m | 121.0 m |
| Dividends paid | 107.0 m ≈ | 107.0 m ≈ | 108.0 m | 108.0 m | 106.0 m ≈ | 107.0 m ≈ | 109.0 m | 107.0 m |
| Share repurchases | 49.0 m ≈ | 2.0 m ≈ | 49.0 m | 9.0 m | 100.0 m ≈ | 0 ≈ | 42.0 m | 107.0 m |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 98 percentile of its own 42-quarter history (min 13.3, median 20.6, max 50.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 56.9 bn | 64.9 bn | 77.2 bn | 83.1 bn | 92.9 bn | 106.4 bn | 117.8 bn | 129.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +5.8% | +14.0% | +18.9% | +7.7% | +11.8% | +14.5% | +10.7% | +10.1% |
| Net income | 1.7 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.4 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.5 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn |
| Net income YoY | −31.3% | +60.8% | +24.4% | −12.9% | −4.3% | −11.3% | −51.5% | −1.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 12.16 | 20.10 | 25.31 | 22.67 | 22.08 | 20.00 | 9.98 | 9.84 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −27.7% | +65.3% | +25.9% | −10.4% | −2.6% | −9.4% | −50.1% | −1.4% |
| net % | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| Free cash flow | 1.6 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.7 bn | 920.0 m | 3.5 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.4 bn | 375.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 4.2 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 12.4 bn USD
- Net debt
- 8.2 bn USD
- Equity
- 17.7 bn USD
- Total assets
- 48.9 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.70x
- Current ratio
- 2.00x
- ROE
- 7.0%
- ROA
- 2.5%
- FCF margin
- 0.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax income | 4.7 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.3 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 3.4 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.5 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 25.31 | 22.67 | 22.08 | 20.00 | 9.98 | 9.84 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 2.43 | 2.73 | 3.06 | 3.44 | 3.54 | 3.54 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 4.7 bn | 3.4 bn | 5.1 bn | 4.7 bn | 2.2 bn | 4.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 35.0 bn | 44.4 bn | 43.1 bn | 47.1 bn | 46.5 bn | 48.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 600.0 m | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.4 bn | 577.0 m | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 6.1 bn | 10.5 bn | 9.0 bn | 10.2 bn | 11.1 bn | 12.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 21.2 bn | 28.3 bn | 27.7 bn | 30.7 bn | 30.0 bn | 31.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 13.7 bn | 16.1 bn | 15.4 bn | 16.3 bn | 16.4 bn | 17.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividends paid | 323.0 m | 354.0 m | 392.0 m | 431.0 m | 431.0 m | 430.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 1.8 bn | 79.0 m | 2.1 bn | 1.6 bn | 817.0 m | 151.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Market and valuation
Insurance
32 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 24 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score < 40
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 50.1 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation0
- Returns38
- Quality11
- Balance sheet65
- Growth44
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 46.52 – 147.61 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- Residual income141.22 – 147.61 (Mid 144.36)
- Justified P/B73.82 – 99.27 (Mid 84.67)
- Dividend discount (DDM)46.52 – 62.56 (Mid 53.36)
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · not enough peers
- Peers: P/Bunavailable · not enough peers
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 24/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE · Quality | 6.2% | 11 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Loss ratio · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -23.6% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 11.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| ROA · Balance sheet | 2.1% | 65 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| P/B · Valuation | 2.7x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 44.5x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| Dividend yield · Returns | 0.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns | 37.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet65/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Growth44/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial11/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Returns38/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
HUMANA INC (HUM). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-03-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: YoY growth 10.1%; net margin 0.8%; ROE 6.2%.
The estimated value range is 73.82–99.27 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 84.67 USD, the price of 417.42 USD leaves a potential of -79.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -393.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 24/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: quality. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 11.8%
- Payout ratio (EPS): 37.7%
What contradicts it
- ROE: 6.2%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -23.6%
- P/B: 2.7x
- P/E (TTM): 44.5x
- Dividend yield: 0.8%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Loss ratio.
Versus the vertical median
Not enough comparable companies with data for an average.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 265.66 Total return -36% · Per year -36% | 468.13 Total return 13% · Per year 13% | 703.05 Total return 70% · Per year 70% |
| 3 years | 296.86 Total return -27% · Per year -10% | 584.79 Total return 43% · Per year 13% | 958.58 Total return 134% · Per year 33% |
| 5 years | 331.73 Total return -16% · Per year -4% | 730.51 Total return 81% · Per year 13% | 1,306.98 Total return 221% · Per year 26% |
- Exit P/E± 146.20
- Net margin± 102.34
- Annual revenue growth± 78.54
- Annual dilution± 8.60
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Humana Inc. is one of the largest US health insurers, focused on Medicare Advantage and its CenterWell care services, with total revenues of about 129.7 billion USD in fiscal 2025 1. The company is currently under pressure on profitability because fewer of its Medicare Advantage plans carry high star ratings, and it bought MaxHealth in February 2026 2.
SWOT
Strengths
- A strong national position in Medicare Advantage, with plans in every state and over three decades of experience in the program 1.
- An integrated care model that links insurance with the CenterWell network, with many members in value-based relationships 1.
- Diversification across federal and state contracts, specialty benefits and pharmacy benefit management 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
- Growth in individual Medicare Advantage membership and expanding Medicaid contracts, including in Illinois, could support revenue 3.
- Expanding CenterWell Senior Primary Care and the MaxHealth acquisition could grow service revenue 23.
- Operating efficiency from the transformation program and technology could reduce administrative costs 12.
Risks
- Medicare Advantage quality ratingshigh
The decline in plans rated high for 2025 could reduce 2026 bonus payments, and the company's lawsuit is not assured of success 1.
- Accuracy of medical cost estimateshigh
If actual costs exceed the estimates used to set premiums, profitability could suffer, and one-year contracts limit recovery 1.
- Dependence on government programsmedium
Most revenue comes from federal contracts, so policy changes could affect financial results directly 1.
- Costs of the transformation programmedium
Restructuring charges have appeared in several periods and more are expected, which could reduce margins 12.
- Data integrity and AI uselow
Errors in information systems or AI could lead to disputes, penalties and lost customers 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If growth in Medicare Advantage membership and Medicaid contracts materializes, revenue and the customer base could keep expanding 3.
- If the integrated care model reduces medical costs, margins could recover after the current rating pressure 12.
- If acquisitions such as MaxHealth integrate well, CenterWell could become a larger source of service revenue 2.
What would break the thesis
- If the decline in quality ratings persists, bonus payments could stay low and weigh on revenue for several years 13.
- If medical costs rise faster than premiums, the benefit ratio could exceed the company's expectations 13.
- If Medicare or Medicaid rules tighten, the company could lose margin or members 1.
What to watch
- Outcome of the lawsuit over 2025 star ratings and the 2026 bonus payments2026
- Delivery against FY 2026 GAAP and Adjusted EPS guidanceQ4 2026
- Insurance segment benefit ratio versus the 92.75 percent guidanceQ3 2026
- Start of the Illinois Medicaid contract and integration of MaxHealth2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The Insurance business includes Medicare Advantage, stand-alone prescription drug plans under Medicare Part D, state-based Medicaid contracts, specialty dental, vision and life benefits, the TRICARE contract with the US Department of Defense and pharmacy benefit management 1. At December 31, 2025 it had about 5.2 million individual Medicare Advantage members 1.
In February 2026 Humana acquired MaxHealth, a primary care platform in Florida, for cash consideration of about 908 million USD net of cash acquired, extending the CenterWell primary care footprint 2.
Segments
Insurance
The Insurance segment generated premiums and services revenue of about 123.8 billion USD in fiscal 2025, of which about 106.3 billion USD came from Medicare 1. It covers individual and group Medicare Advantage, stand-alone PDPs, state-based contracts and the TRICARE business under a T-5 contract that began in January 2025 1.
Market context
Humana operates in a heavily regulated market in which federal and state policy shapes premiums and revenue, especially in Medicare Advantage and Medicaid 1. The company says barriers to entry are not substantial and customers can switch between plans during the annual enrollment period, which keeps competition intense 1.
Pressure on medical costs and premium prices, along with regulatory changes and CMS quality ratings, defines the environment in which the company gains or loses members 12.
Trends
- Medicare Advantage star ratingsheadwind
The sharp fall in members in plans rated 4 stars or higher for 2025 could reduce CMS quality bonus payments in 2026 and weigh on revenue if the company's lawsuit is not successful 13.
- Growth in Medicare Advantage membershiptailwind
The company expects individual Medicare Advantage membership to grow in 2026 versus 2025, supported by new sales and better retention 3.
- Integrated care and primary caremixed
The MaxHealth deal and CenterWell Senior Primary Care expansion point to a shift toward integrated primary care that could lower costs if well coordinated 23.
- Medical costs and operating efficiencymixed
The multi-year transformation program has produced restructuring charges, and medical cost pressure could lift the benefit ratio if not managed 12.
Competitive position
Humana competes with more established health companies that have larger market shares and greater financial resources in some markets, and price is a key basis of competition 1. The company notes new competitors could enter its markets, including in Medicare, Medicaid or health care delivery 1.
Competition also centers on the quality and depth of provider networks and service, and positions can shift quickly between plans during each enrollment period 1.
- Established health companies with larger market shares
The sources refer to more established competitors in some markets without naming them, so no ticker is given.
- New entrants in Medicare and Medicaid
Risk factors mention possible new entrants without naming any company.
- Other state-contract health plans
The company bids for state contracts against other plans that are not named in the sources.
- Primary care service providers
Competition in primary care is mentioned in the context of the MaxHealth deal without other names.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- UnitedHealthcare, Humana Medicare Advantage cancellations to affect 1 millionThe Hill · 22 Oct 2026 · EN
- STAT+: BlackRock to buy majority stake in Humana’s CenterWell clinics for $2.8 billionSTAT News · 13 Oct 2026 · EN
- Delta Slides on FY Outlook; Humana Surges on Quality Ratings | Stock MoversBloomberg Markets · 09 Oct 2026 · EN
- Acțiunile Humana au crescut cu 15% după ratingurile Medicare pentru 2027 - www.goldring.roSurge — Google News · 09 Oct 2026 · RO
- Humana surges after topping 2027 Medicare star ratingsCNBC — Top News · 09 Oct 2026 · EN
- Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Delta Air Lines, SpaceX, T-Mobile, Humana & moreCNBC — Top News · 09 Oct 2026 · EN
- Humana și SpaceX impulsionează bursa SUA în premarket; operatorii telecom scad - www.goldring.roSurge — Google News · 09 Oct 2026 · RO
- Is HealthStream (HSTM) a Better Healthcare Bet Than Humana (HUM) Right Now?Yahoo Finance — News · 09 Sept 2026 · EN
- Is Humana Stock Outperforming the Dow?Yahoo Finance — News · 09 Sept 2026 · EN
- Can Better Star Ratings and Margin Expansion Drive Humana (HUM) Higher?Yahoo Finance — News · 03 Sept 2026 · EN
- Humana Is Cutting Medicare Advantage Plans for 2027. The Non-Renewal Letters Arrive in Early October.Yahoo Finance — News · 30 Aug 2026 · EN
- Humana Lower on Profit Guidance; P&G Moves on Results | Stock MoversBloomberg Markets · 29 Jul 2026 · EN
- Pagina verde. Rodica Bulăceanu, Humana România: Brandul a intrat în România în 2006, când second-hand-ul purta stigma sărăciei. Acum a devenit o normalitate în oraşele mari şi medii. Humana deţine pe plan local 40 de magazine în peste 20 de oraşe.Ziarul Financiar · 20 May 2026 · RO
SEC filings
- Current report13 Oct 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report09 Oct 2026Regulation FD disclosure
- Current report01 Sept 2026Regulation FD disclosure
- Quarterly report29 Jul 2026
- Current report29 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report29 Jul 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report01 Jun 2026Regulation FD disclosure
- Current report19 May 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report29 Apr 2026
- Current report29 Apr 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Humana Inc. · 19 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Humana Inc. · 29 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Humana Inc. · 29 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.