olivLaw · US equity research
Kodiak AI, Inc. KDK
Services-Computer Integrated Systems Design · SIC 7373
Kodiak AI develops the Kodiak Driver, an AI-powered autonomous driving system for trucks, already operating without a driver in freight transport and in military applications. The company is loss-making, with quarterly revenue still small, but its licence model could scale if driverless operations expand over long distances, where it could reach a meaningful share of the market.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Kodiak AI, Inc. (KDK) stock was 1.10 USD (−5.17% on the day), with market capitalisation 220.7 m USD, beta 1.81, 52-week range 1.02–10.92 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 3.5 m USD (+595.6% YoY), net income of 12.5 m USD, diluted EPS -0.50 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 28.6
- oversold (≤ 30)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 0.83 – 1.79
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.28 · band width 73.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 2.39 / 5.88
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.34 / -0.41
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −36.4% | −1.1% | −35.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −74.0% | −0.5% | −73.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | −87.5% | +4.4% | −91.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | −89.9% | +12.3% | −102.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | −86.2% | +13.5% | −99.8 pp | — |
| 3 years | unavailable | +76.4% | unavailable | — |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 400.0 k | 13.7 m | 1.5 m | 503.0 k | 770.0 k | 1.1 m | 1.8 m | 3.5 m |
| Research & development | 10.4 m | 14.1 m | 10.1 m | 12.2 m | 13.5 m | 14.4 m | 17.6 m | 22.7 m |
| Operating income | -18.2 m | -9.5 m | -18.6 m | -25.3 m | -30.0 m | -38.7 m | -37.9 m | -43.7 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 1.2 m | 997.0 k | 532.0 k | 700.0 k | 900.0 k | 1.1 m | 1.4 m | 1.6 m |
| Interest expense | 1.2 m | 1.2 m | 1.3 m | 1.2 m | 941.0 k | 731.0 k | 896.0 k | 909.0 k |
| Pre-tax income | -19.1 m | -14.4 m | -128.2 m | -113.7 m | -269.9 m | -73.7 m | 26.5 m | 12.5 m |
| Income tax | 0 | -3.0 k | 1.0 k | 3.0 k | 0 | -1.0 k | -4.0 k | 14.0 k |
| Net income | -19.1 m | -14.4 m | -128.2 m | -113.7 m | -269.9 m | -73.7 m | 26.5 m | 12.5 m |
| Diluted EPS | -0.33 | -0.24 ≈ | -2.16 | -1.89 | -3.89 | -0.42 ≈ | 0.10 | -0.50 |
| Operating cash flow | -35.7 m ≈ | -14.7 m | -16.5 m | -20.4 m ≈ | -33.4 m ≈ | -24.2 m | -29.5 m | -34.1 m ≈ |
| Capex | — | 2.4 m | 2.3 m | 2.9 m ≈ | 6.6 m ≈ | 10.1 m | 5.5 m | 3.9 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | 16.9 m | 14.9 m | 3.8 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −11.9% | −74.6% |
| Net income | -3.5 k | -56.9 m | -69.5 m | -585.5 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | -0.98 | -1.19 | -6.42 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | unavailable | -336.0% | -465.1% | -15,420.7% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | -47.1 m | -54.2 m | -116.5 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 50.8 m USD
- Financial debt
- 41.8 m USD
- Net debt
- -9.0 m USD
- Equity
- -283.1 m USD
- Total assets
- 159.4 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 4.73x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- -600.6%
- FCF margin
- -3,067.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | 16.9 m | 14.9 m | 3.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Research & development | — | 39.5 m | 43.4 m | 50.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | -3.5 k | -53.8 m | -61.7 m | -112.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | — | 4.1 m | 4.6 m | 3.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | — | -49.7 m ≈ | -57.1 m ≈ | -109.4 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026derived |
| Interest expense | — | 5.4 m | 5.0 m | 4.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | — | -56.9 m | -69.5 m | -585.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | — | 9.0 k | 1.0 k | 3.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | -3.5 k | -56.9 m | -69.5 m | -585.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | — | -0.98 | -1.19 | -6.42 | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | — | 57.9 m | 58.4 m | 91.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 0 | 27.8 m | 16.7 m | 50.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | — | 1.3 m | 879.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.2 k | 2.4 m | 20.2 m | 126.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | — | 6.7 m | 26.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 512.6 k | 525.5 m | 35.6 m | 159.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | — | — | 1.4 m | 1.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | — | 16.8 m | 11.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 0 | 5.0 m | 17.6 m | 29.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 503.6 k | 279.1 k | 31.2 m | 26.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 503.6 k | 22.8 m | 115.7 m | 219.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | -135.1 m † | -187.1 m † | -250.8 m † | -283.1 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 0 | -43.8 m | -51.0 m | -94.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | — | 3.3 m | 3.2 m | 22.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | — | -47.1 m ≈ | -54.2 m ≈ | -116.5 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 0 | 17.3 m | -3.2 m | -91.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 0 | 12.0 m | 43.1 m | 219.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 220.7 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
62% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: EV/Salesunavailable · not enough peers
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EBIT margin · Quality | -2,100.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| FCF margin · Quality | -2,061.7% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth | -74.6% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 5.5x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| EV/Sales · Valuation | 30.2x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 28% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -66.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 21% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/1 factors with a value
- Valuation0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Kodiak AI, Inc. (KDK). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.8 m USD in 2025; YoY growth -74.6%; net margin -4,259.6%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 5.5x
What contradicts it
- EBIT margin: -2,100.2%
- FCF margin: -2,061.7%
- Revenue growth (YoY): -74.6%
- EV/Sales: 30.2x
- FCF yield: -66.8%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Gross margin, Revenue CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions).
Versus the vertical median
Not enough comparable companies with data for an average.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Kodiak AI develops the Kodiak Driver, an AI-powered autonomous driving system for trucks, already operating without a driver in freight transport and in military applications. The company is loss-making, with quarterly revenue still small, but its licence model could scale if driverless operations expand over long distances, where it could reach a meaningful share of the market.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has proven driverless operations in a commercial setting and a recurring licence model that can be scaled 13.
- Its software, independent of HD maps, and modular hardware could lower maintenance costs and ease extension to new vehicle types 1.
- Partnerships with large fleet operators and industrial suppliers strengthen access to customers and production 13.
Weaknesses
- The net loss is large, the company is not yet profitable, and quarterly revenue is still small relative to spending 13.
- The operating history is short, which makes future revenue and cost estimates difficult 1.
- A significant part of revenue has come from government contracts and a small number of large customers, which can be a vulnerability 1.
Opportunities
- Expanding driverless operations to highways and to Canada or the Middle East could open new markets 13.
- Defence modernisation and European interest in autonomous ground vehicles could bring new contracts 2.
- Customers moving to the Driver-as-a-Service model could raise recurring revenue and lower the capital needed for the company's own fleet 12.
Risks
- Losses and funding needhigh
The company is not yet profitable, and heavy operating investment could require additional capital on unfavourable terms 13.
- Dependence on a few customershigh
A small number of customers produce a significant part of revenue, and losing one could quickly affect results 1.
- Safety and technical errorshigh
Software or hardware defects, human error or public incidents could affect acceptance of the technology and create legal liability 1.
- Uncertain regulationmedium
The lack of a unified federal framework and differing state requirements could force costly adjustments or delays 1.
- Supplier dependencemedium
Some components come from a single or few suppliers, and tariffs or trade restrictions could disrupt production 13.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If driverless highway operations start on schedule, the company could turn its licence model into a larger and more predictable recurring revenue stream 3.
- Growth in driverless hours and loads delivered could show the technology scaling beyond pilot projects 3.
- Defence demand and international interest in autonomous vehicles could diversify the company's revenue 2.
What would break the thesis
- Large losses and negative cash flow could force the company to raise capital on less favourable terms 13.
- Delays in approvals for driverless highway operation could postpone scaling and reduce investor confidence 1.
- Competition and price pressure could limit margins even if the technology performs well 1.
What to watch
- Launch of driverless long-haul highway operationsend of 2026
- Trend in quarterly revenue and free cash flowQ3 2026
- Number of customer-owned vehicles in the fleetnext quarterly report
- New military contracts and expansion of the ROADS programme2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Kodiak AI, formerly Kodiak Robotics, was founded in 2018 and is listed on Nasdaq under KDK after its September 2025 merger with Ares Acquisition Corporation II 1. It offers the Kodiak Driver, a virtual driver combining AI software with modular, vehicle-agnostic hardware that is independent of HD maps 1. Its customers work in long-haul trucking, industrial trucking and defense, and the company says it was the first to put customer-owned, driverless trucks into commercial service 1. Its Driver-as-a-Service model earns recurring licence fees per vehicle or per mile, which could make the company less dependent on its own fleet over time 12.
The net loss rose sharply in fiscal 2025 to 585.5 million USD, compared with 69.5 million USD in 2024 1. In the second quarter of 2026 revenue was 3.5 million USD, and cash and marketable securities at quarter-end stood at 151.1 million USD 3. The company aims to reach driverless long-haul highway operations by the end of 2026, an objective on which much of its future depends 3.
Current operations are concentrated in the southern United States, especially the Permian Basin, where Atlas Energy Solutions uses the trucks in oil and gas logistics, and the company recently extended coverage to a second load-out point 13. It also works with large fleets such as J.B. Hunt and Werner Enterprises and started an international pilot in Canada 13.
Segments
Driver-as-a-Service (DaaS)
This is the main future model: customers own and operate the vehicles, while Kodiak supplies the autonomy system, software updates, integration and remote support for a recurring fee 12. The company says that as more customer-owned vehicles join, its cost structure could become more capital-light 2.
Market context
The company operates in autonomous driving for freight and in industrial and military applications. The regulatory path for autonomous vehicles had opened in 24 US states by the end of 2025 1, and its existing customers' fleets total over 125000 trucks, which could represent large potential if adoption grows 2. The market is still forming, and the public and regulators have not yet fully accepted driverless vehicles.
Supply-chain pressure and a shortage of drivers make autonomous trucking look useful to fleet operators 1. Military demand for autonomous ground systems is rising, especially in Europe, which opens additional markets 2.
Trends
- Regulation broadeningmixed
US states have opened an operating framework for autonomous vehicles, but requirements still differ between states, for example on first-responder protocols and insurance 1. If these requirements converge, deployment could speed up.
- Rising military demandtailwind
Defence modernisation programmes increasingly focus on equipping vehicles with advanced technology, and the Department of War is prioritising adapting commercial AI for defence 2. This could support revenue in the defence segment.
- Uncertain macro conditionsheadwind
Inflation, higher interest rates, tariffs and geopolitical tensions have raised economic uncertainty, and changes in trade policy could affect supply chains and customers' investment decisions 1.
- Public and union acceptanceheadwind
Media and labour unions raise questions about the safety of autonomous trucks and their effect on driver jobs, which could bring legislative pressure and a slower pace of adoption 1.
Competitive position
The autonomous driving market is competitive, and rivals may have greater resources. Competition could reduce prices and margins, which would affect the company's financial results 1. The company argues that its capital-efficient approach and independence from HD maps give it an advantage 1.
Competitors include developers of autonomous technology aimed at freight and military applications, but the available sources do not identify all of them in detail. Partners such as Vay Technology and Bosch are collaborators rather than direct rivals 1.
- Vay Technology
Partner providing the remote assistance stations and tools for Kodiak's Assisted Autonomy system, not a direct competitor in the sources reviewed 1.
- Bosch
Industrial partner with which Kodiak is working to scale manufacture of a production-grade autonomous platform 1.
- Applied Intuition
Simulation technology provider used by Kodiak in developing its autonomous system 1.
- Other autonomous vehicle developers
Companies in the same field that could compete on price and market share, not named in the sources provided 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Stocks making the biggest moves midday: MongoDB, Boeing, Kodiak Sciences, Roblox, Nvidia & moreCNBC — Top News · 28 Sept 2026 · EN
- Kodiak Sciences (KOD) Races Toward Three Make-Or-Break Trial VerdictsYahoo Finance — News · 03 Sept 2026 · EN
- Predicting the 2026 Bristol Bay and Kodiak Salmon RunsHacker News · 22 May 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Quarterly report07 Aug 2026
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report02 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report15 Jun 2026Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report08 May 2026
- Current report07 May 2026Material agreement · Results of operations · Item 3.02 · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement24 Apr 2026
- Annual report11 Mar 2026
- Current report10 Mar 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report31 Dec 2025Material agreement · Termination of a material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Kodiak AI, Inc. · 11 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Kodiak AI, Inc. · 07 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Kodiak AI, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.