olivLaw · US equity research
MINISO Group Holding Limited MNSO
Retail-Variety Stores · SIC 5331 · Vertical: Retail-Variety Stores (SIC 5331)
MINISO Group Holding is a global value retailer selling lifestyle products and pop toys through two brands, MINISO and TOP TOY. In 2025 revenue reached RMB 21443.8 million, and sales outside Chinese Mainland rose to 41.3 percent of the total, which makes the company relevant to anyone following international expansion in consumer retail.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 02 Nov 2026, MINISO Group Holding Limited (MNSO) stock was 10.42 USD (+1.86% on the day), with beta 1.04, 52-week range 8.60–21.87 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 61.0
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 8.99 – 10.80
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.79 · band width 18.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 9.61 / 13.60
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.16 / 0.12
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +18.0% | −2.3% | +20.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | −18.9% | −0.8% | −18.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | −28.7% | +4.7% | −33.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | −44.4% | +10.2% | −54.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | −51.1% | +10.3% | −61.4 pp | +24.0% |
| 3 years | −60.9% | +73.0% | −133.9 pp | +26.8% |
| 5 years | −37.0% | +61.8% | −98.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9.4 bn | 9.0 bn | 9.1 bn | 10.1 bn | 11.5 bn | 17.0 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −4.4% | +1.0% | +11.2% | +13.8% | +48.1% |
| Net income | -290.6 m | -262.3 m | -1.4 bn | 638.2 m | 1.8 bn | 2.6 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +177.2% | +48.0% |
| Diluted EPS | -0.32 | -0.26 | -1.18 | 0.52 | 1.41 | 2.10 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +171.2% | +48.9% |
| net % | -3.1% | -2.9% | -15.6% | 6.3% | 15.4% | 15.4% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- 6.3 bn CNY
- Financial debt
- 571.3 m CNY
- Net debt
- -5.8 bn CNY
- Equity
- 10.4 bn CNY
- Total assets
- 18.1 bn CNY
- Debt / equity
- 0.06x
- Current ratio
- 2.04x
- ROE
- 27.2%
- ROA
- 16.6%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (CNY)
Margins
Income statement · CNY
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9.4 bn | 9.0 bn | 9.1 bn | 10.1 bn | 11.5 bn | 17.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 6.9 bn | 6.2 bn | 6.6 bn | 7.0 bn | 7.0 bn | 9.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 2.5 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.4 bn | 3.1 bn | 4.4 bn | 7.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Operating income | 1.0 bn | 766.6 m | 401.0 m | 882.0 m | 2.2 bn | 3.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 191.8 m | 268.7 m | 265.0 m | 389.9 m | 391.2 m | 808.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| EBITDA | 1.2 bn ≈ | 1.0 bn ≈ | 666.1 m ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | 2.6 bn ≈ | 4.1 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025derived |
| Interest expense | 25.2 m | 31.3 m | 28.4 m | 33.4 m | 34.6 m | 92.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 289.0 m | 80.8 m | -1.2 bn | 906.8 m | 2.3 bn | 3.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Income tax | 279.6 m | 210.9 m | 213.3 m | 267.1 m | 551.8 m | 712.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Net income | -290.6 m | -262.3 m | -1.4 bn | 638.2 m | 1.8 bn | 2.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.32 | -0.26 | -1.18 | 0.52 | 1.41 | 2.10 | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | — | — | — | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · CNY
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | — | 2.9 bn | 6.8 bn | 5.3 bn | 6.5 bn | 6.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Receivables | — | 729.9 m | 824.7 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Inventories | — | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Current assets | — | 5.0 bn | 9.2 bn | 8.1 bn | 9.9 bn | 11.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | 88.1 m | 76.3 m | 419.9 m | 534.6 m | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Goodwill | — | 0 | 19.6 m | 19.4 m | 21.1 m | 21.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | 69.1 m | 61.0 m | 43.1 m | 25.3 m | 8.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Total assets | — | 5.8 bn | 10.7 bn | 11.3 bn | 13.4 bn | 18.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | — | 2.4 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 401.2 m | 13.7 m | 445.0 k | — | 567.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 15.2 m | 6.9 m | 6.5 m | 7.2 m | 4.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 3.3 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.9 bn | 5.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 6.2 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.5 bn | 7.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Equity | -114.0 m | -323.0 m | 6.7 bn | 7.0 bn | 8.9 bn | 10.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | — | — | — | — | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
Cash flow · CNY
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.0 bn | 826.5 m | 916.3 m | 1.4 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Investing cash flow | -210.9 m | 462.8 m | -518.8 m | -2.1 bn | -293.4 m | -533.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | 619.9 m | -117.7 m | 3.5 bn | -733.6 m | -326.0 m | -1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | — | 330.3 m | — | 306.3 m | 370.8 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Oct 2023verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | — | 82.2 m | 32.7 m | 313.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
02 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
46% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 70.7% | 100 (vs peers) | 23% |
| Net margin · Quality | 15.4% | 100 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 23.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -1.4x | 100 (vs peers) | 23% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 35.7x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.0x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
MINISO Group Holding Limited (MNSO). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 17.0 bn CNY in 2024; YoY growth 48.1%; net margin 15.4%; ROE 26.9%; net debt/EBITDA -1.4x.
The estimated value range is 35.73–57.13 CNY per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: same basis (multiples on one peer group, not independent confirmations)); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 70.7%
- Net margin: 15.4%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 23.3%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -1.4x
- Interest coverage: 35.7x
- Current ratio: 2.0x
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Retail-Variety Stores (SIC 5331) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 9 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMTWalmart Inc. | 1,013.1 bn | 46.1 | 23.4% | 3.0% | +4.7% | +16% / +146% |
| COSTCostco Wholesale Corp | 461.1 bn | 50.1 | 28.4% | 3.0% | +10.1% | +14% / +76% |
| TGTTarget Corporation | 72.0 bn | 16.5 | 26.4% | 4.1% | −1.7% | +75% / +18% |
| DGDollar General Corp | 30.0 bn | 17.7 | 19.7% | 3.9% | +5.2% | +24% / +4% |
| DLTRDollar Tree, Inc. | 26.0 bn | 16.9 | 45.9% | 8.0% | +10.4% | +25% / +12% |
| BJBj’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. | 14.0 bn | 24.2 | 27.7% | 2.6% | +4.7% | +24% / +71% |
| FIVEFive Below, Inc. | 13.2 bn | 21.4 | 28.3% | 11.7% | +22.9% | +45% / +27% |
| OLLIOllie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. | 5.3 bn | 19.9 | 14.9% | 9.8% | +16.6% | −28% / +21% |
| PSMTPriceSmart, Inc. | 5.2 bn | 30.9 | 12.3% | 2.8% | +11.5% | +35% / +147% |
| MNSOMINISO Group Holding Limited | — | — | 26.9% | 15.4% | +48.1% | −51% / −61% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MNSO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 24 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (30 Oct 2026), 6-K (26 Oct 2026), 6-K (21 Oct 2026), 6-K (14 Oct 2026), 6-K (09 Oct 2026), 6-K (05 Oct 2026).
In brief
MINISO Group Holding is a global value retailer selling lifestyle products and pop toys through two brands, MINISO and TOP TOY. In 2025 revenue reached RMB 21443.8 million, and sales outside Chinese Mainland rose to 41.3 percent of the total, which makes the company relevant to anyone following international expansion in consumer retail 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Global recognition of the MINISO brand and an extensive store network across many countries.
- A fast product model with frequent SKU launches and a digitally integrated supply chain.
- Partnerships with well-known IP licensors that support product appeal.
Weaknesses
- Heavy dependence on the MINISO brand, which generates the majority of revenue.
- Sales sensitivity to discretionary consumer demand in China and other markets.
- Revenue per store has fluctuated significantly in the past, making performance harder to anticipate.
Opportunities
- Expansion into high-potential overseas markets and deeper direct operations in selected regions.
- Growth of TOP TOY in China and abroad within the pop toy segment.
- New store formats such as flagship and themed stores that could lift sales per square metre.
Threats
- A prolonged economic slowdown in China or globally could reduce consumer spending.
- Product imitation and use of similar names could weaken brand image.
- Regulatory changes in China and restrictions linked to US listing could affect investors.
Risks
- Brand dependencehigh
If the flagship brand loses appeal, revenue and operating results could be significantly affected.
- Consumer demandhigh
A drop in discretionary spending in China or elsewhere could reduce store sales.
- Chinese regulationmedium
Rapid changes in Chinese law and state influence over operations could alter the conditions of business.
- Retail partners and distributorsmedium
If partners fail to meet their obligations or relationships deteriorate, image and results could suffer.
- Share price volatilitylow
The ADS price has been volatile, and concentrated ownership by principal shareholders limits the influence of other investors.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If international expansion continues and the share of overseas revenue keeps rising, the company could diversify its market exposure.
- TOP TOY's success could add a revenue line with a higher average order value if interest in pop toys holds.
- Digitalization of supply chain and store management could support margins over the longer term.
What would break the thesis
- If discretionary spending weakens in China, sales and margins could suffer even with a large network.
- Dependence on one main brand leaves the company exposed if its appeal declines.
- Regulatory and listing risks could affect investor confidence regardless of operating results.
What to watch
- Development of revenue from outside Chinese Mainland2026
- TOP TOY store count and sales per store2026
- Integration of Yonghui Superstores and its effect on results2026
- TOP TOY Hong Kong listing application, if completed2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 24 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (30 Oct 2026), 6-K (26 Oct 2026), 6-K (21 Oct 2026), 6-K (14 Oct 2026), 6-K (09 Oct 2026), 6-K (05 Oct 2026).
The business
The company describes itself as a global high-growth value retailer offering lifestyle products at affordable prices, with designs built on distinctive IP. The flagship MINISO brand accounted for 91.1 percent of total revenue in 2025, and at year-end the network counted 8151 stores in over 90 countries and regions 1. The second brand, TOP TOY, focuses on pop toys and had 334 stores on December 31, 2025 1.
The operating model rests on three pillars: dynamic product development, an efficient supply chain and operational know-how backed by digitalization. The company launched on average around 1600 MINISO SKUs per month and offered around 17000 TOP TOY SKUs 1. In Chinese Mainland almost all stores run under the Retail Partner model, while overseas it uses distributors and direct operations as well 1.
In February 2025 the company completed the acquisition of a 29.4 percent stake in Yonghui Superstores for a total cash consideration of about RMB 6.3 billion, extending its footprint beyond variety-store retail 1.
Segments
MINISO – Chinese Mainland
The MINISO Chinese Mainland segment covers the design, purchasing and sale of lifestyle products. Store count rose from over 3600 as of June 30, 2023 to 4568 as of December 31, 2025, and most stores are run by Retail Partners 1.
MINISO – Overseas
The overseas MINISO segment includes sales outside Chinese Mainland through Retail Partners, distributors and, in some markets, direct operations. Overseas store count reached around 3600 by December 31, 2025 1.
TOP TOY
The TOP TOY segment targets pop toys, with a wider price range and higher average order value than MINISO. Of its 334 stores, 304 are in Chinese Mainland 1.
Market context
The company operates in value retail and lifestyle products, and the sources give no estimate of market size. Chinese Mainland accounted for 58.7 percent of total revenue in 2025, with the rest coming from other Asian markets, North America, Latin America and Europe 1.
Demand depends on disposable income and consumer confidence, which shape discretionary spending. The company relies on network growth in lower-tier Chinese cities and on international expansion to sustain its growth pace 1.
Trends
- International expansiontailwind
The share of revenue from outside Chinese Mainland has risen, which could offset slower growth at home if expansion into new markets stays profitable.
- Discretionary consumptionheadwind
Demand for non-essential products could fall if disposable incomes shrink, which would directly affect store sales.
- Pop toy economymixed
Interest in pop toys and IP-based collectibles creates opportunities for TOP TOY, although the popularity of such products can be volatile.
- Digitalization of operationstailwind
Digital tools for store and inventory management could improve efficiency, particularly if real-time data is used for replenishment.
Competitive position
The company says it operates in a market with intense competition, where its products must stay attractive in design and price. The source does not name direct competitors in detail, but it warns about copycat products and companies with highly similar names 1.
Declared advantages are supply chain scale, speed to market and relationships with IP licensors such as Disney, Sanrio and Universal 1. If these advantages weaken, the competitive position could be affected.
- Other variety and lifestyle retailers
The source does not name direct competitors, but warns that copycats and companies with similar names can divert customer traffic.
- Producers of copycat products
The risk of product imitation is explicitly cited as competitive pressure on the brand.
- Pop toy and collectible retailers
TOP TOY operates in a specialised segment where competition depends on the appeal of its IP.
- Hypermarket and supermarket chains
Relevant because of the Yonghui Superstores stake, which extended the company into food retail.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Miniso (MNSO) Booming Membership Growth Collides With A Struggling Global ExpansionYahoo Finance — News · 30 Aug 2026 · EN
- Miniso banks on finding the next Labubu as it opens 100 US storesNikkei Asia · 10 Jul 2026 · RO
- Miniso US CEO on Business Growth StrategyBloomberg Markets · 30 Jun 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 30 Aug 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 30 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)26 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)21 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)14 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)09 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)05 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)23 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)17 Sept 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / MINISO Group Holding Limited · 24 Apr 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.