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olivLaw · US equity research

NACCO Industries, Inc. NC

Bituminous Coal & Lignite Surface Mining · SIC 1221 · Vertical: Coal mining (SIC 122x)

33.88USD−2.00% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

NACCO Industries is a U.S. natural resources group that runs lignite coal mines under long-term management contracts, provides contract mining services to aggregates producers, and earns royalty income from oil and gas mineral interests. The company reported total revenue of 277.2 million USD for fiscal 2025 and reiterated an expected recurring EBITDA of about 50 million USD a year from current businesses.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, NACCO Industries, Inc. (NC) stock was 33.88 USD (−2.00% on the day), with P/E 17.2 on diluted EPS of 1.97 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.04%, beta 0.65, 52-week range 32.47–58.99 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 80.5 m USD (+5.1% YoY), net income of 10.9 m USD (−17.7% YoY), diluted EPS 1.44 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
unavailable
P/E (TTM)
17.2
Diluted EPS TTM 1.97 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
5.82%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
3.04%
DPS 12m 1.03
Beta (2y)
0.65
Volatility (1y) 40%
52-week range
32.4758.99

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
40.4
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
32.34 – 36.44
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.38 · band width 11.9%
SMA 50 / 200
37.11 / 46.66
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.70 / -0.94
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−7.7%−1.1%−6.6 pp—
3 months−28.2%−0.5%−27.8 pp—
6 months−33.2%+4.4%−37.6 pp—
Year to date−30.9%+12.3%−43.2 pp—
1 year−19.7%+13.5%−33.2 pp−1.6%
3 years−2.1%+76.4%−78.5 pp−26.7%
5 years+4.9%+63.7%−58.7 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−45.0%
25 Feb 2026 → 20 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−57.3%
02 Jun 2022 → 12 Sept 2024
Compound annual growth (5y)
+1.0%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
80.5 m USD
+5.1% YoY
Net income
10.9 m USD
−17.7% YoY
Diluted EPS
1.44
−19.1% YoY
net / operating
13.6% / 11.5%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue70.4 m65.6 m68.2 m76.6 m66.8 m62.8 m72.3 m80.5 m
Cost of revenue61.9 m55.9 m61.4 m66.6 m54.8 m48.5 m57.1 m68.7 m
Gross profit8.5 m9.7 m6.8 m10.0 m12.0 m14.3 m15.2 m11.8 m
SG&A20.1 m17.9 m19.8 m19.5 m20.7 m19.7 m19.2 m19.0 m
Operating income3.9 m7.7 m-51.0 k6.8 m7.6 m11.0 m-2.3 m9.3 m
Depreciation & amortisation5.7 m6.8 m6.1 m6.2 m6.2 m5.5 m6.1 m6.3 m
Interest expense1.8 m1.8 m1.9 m1.1 m949.0 k1.7 m1.6 m2.2 m
Pre-tax income2.7 m5.1 m2.0 m6.0 m66.0 k9.8 m-3.2 m12.5 m
Income tax-4.9 m227.0 k-1.3 m-7.3 m3.9 m991.0 k-2.2 m1.6 m
Net income7.6 m4.9 m3.3 m13.3 m-3.8 m8.8 m-963.0 k10.9 m
Diluted EPS1.01 ≈0.660.441.78-0.51 ≈1.17-0.131.44
Operating cash flow25.2 m5.0 m-7.8 m ≈42.3 m ≈11.4 m12.4 m8.3 m ≈8.5 m ≈
Dividends paid1.7 m1.7 m1.9 m ≈1.9 m ≈1.9 m1.9 m2.0 m ≈2.0 m ≈
Share repurchases368.0 k695.0 k0 ≈0 ≈1.8 m00 ≈0 ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 89 percentile of its own 36-quarter history (min 3.0, median 6.8, max 21.6; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue135.4 m141.0 m128.4 m191.8 m241.7 m214.8 m237.7 m277.2 m
Revenue YoY+29.2%+4.1%−8.9%+49.4%+26.0%−11.1%+10.7%+16.6%
Net income34.8 m39.6 m14.8 m48.1 m74.2 m-39.6 m33.7 m17.6 m
Net income YoY+14.7%+13.9%−62.7%+225.3%+54.1%−153.4%unavailable−47.9%
Diluted EPS5.005.662.106.6910.06-5.294.552.35
Diluted EPS YoY+13.4%+13.2%−62.9%+218.6%+50.4%−152.6%unavailable−48.4%
net %25.7%28.1%11.5%25.1%30.7%-18.4%14.2%6.3%
Free cash flow33.7 m28.1 m-32.7 m35.6 m25.2 m9.1 m-32.4 m2.3 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
49.7 m USD
Financial debt
109.9 m USD
Net debt
60.2 m USD
Equity
429.2 m USD
Total assets
661.2 m USD
Debt / equity
0.26x
Current ratio
3.09x
ROE
4.2%
ROA
2.7%
FCF margin
0.8%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
214.8 m
2024
237.7 m
2025
277.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
200.2 m
2024
208.0 m
2025
238.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
14.6 m
2024
29.8 m
2025
38.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

SG&A
2023
65.6 m
2024
69.8 m
2025
77.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-70.1 m
2024
35.7 m
2025
22.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
29.4 m
2024
24.7 m
2025
25.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
-40.8 m ≈
2024
60.4 m ≈
2025
47.3 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
2.5 m
2024
5.6 m
2025
5.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-64.2 m
2024
33.6 m
2025
13.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
-24.6 m
2024
-95.0 k
2025
-4.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
-39.6 m
2024
33.7 m
2025
17.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-5.29
2024
4.55
2025
2.35

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
7.5 m
2024
7.4 m
2025
7.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.86
2024
0.90
2025
0.99

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
85.1 m
2024
72.8 m
2025
49.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Mar 2023verified

Inventories
2023
77.0 m
2024
94.6 m
2025
63.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
232.0 m
2024
264.7 m
2025
214.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
6.0 m
2024
5.5 m
2025
4.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
539.7 m
2024
631.7 m
2025
661.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Mar 2023verified

Short-term debt
2023
4.0 m
2024
4.2 m
2025
9.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
35.8 m
2024
99.4 m
2025
100.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
70.0 m
2024
64.9 m
2025
69.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
157.4 m
2024
226.7 m
2025
232.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
382.3 m †
2024
404.9 m †
2025
429.2 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
54.5 m
2024
22.3 m
2025
50.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
45.4 m
2024
54.7 m
2025
48.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
9.1 m ≈
2024
-32.4 m ≈
2025
2.3 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-81.6 m
2024
-71.3 m
2025
-64.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
1.5 m
2024
36.7 m
2025
-9.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
6.5 m
2024
6.6 m
2025
7.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
3.1 m
2024
9.9 m
2025
2.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
16.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
4.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
16.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-38.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-47.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-38.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
3.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-48.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-38.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
2.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
18.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
17.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
9.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
5.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
-2.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
3.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
2.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
5.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
4.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
52.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Balance sheet

Net debt
-48.3 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
-1.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
4.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
3.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
2.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
40.6 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
48.6 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Free cash flow
-8.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
-53.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
81.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
98 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
unavailable
input data missing
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
input data missing
P/E (TTM)
17.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
5.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
unavailable
input data missing
P/S
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
unavailable
input data missing
FCF yield
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
3.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

Risk

Altman Z
unavailable
input data missing

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 39 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score < 40

Closing price

33.88 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: unavailable

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
unavailable
input data missing
P/E (TTM)
17.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
3.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
5.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
16.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
3.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

33/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 04 Nov 2026
verified 2597derived 212

Score by group

  • Balance sheet65
  • Growth19
  • Valuation40
  • Quality29

Estimated value range

Low
20.04
USD per share
Mid
22.56
USD per share
High
25.37
USD per share
Price: 33.88 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -33.4% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -50.2% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 12.94 – 33.34 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/E27.13 – 33.34 (Mid 30.27)
    3 companies used · median multiple 15.3x · quartiles 13.8x – 16.9x
    ARLP, HCC, NRP
  • Dividend discount (DDM)12.94 – 17.41 (Mid 14.85)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Coal mining (SIC 122x)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 39/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality5.1%24 (on a fixed band)15%
Net margin · Quality5.3%67 (vs peers)9%
FCF conversion · Quality-53.8%0 (on a fixed band)9%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth4.7%39 (on a fixed band)12%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-38.4%0 (on a fixed band)12%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet-1.0x67 (vs peers)15%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet4.0x38 (on a fixed band)9%
Current ratio · Balance sheet3.2x100 (on a fixed band)6%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation17.2x40 (vs peers)15%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet65/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth19/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality29/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial40/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

NACCO INDUSTRIES, INC. (NC). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 277.2 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 16.6%; net margin 5.3%; ROE 3.4%; net debt/EBITDA -1.0x.

The estimated value range is 20.04–25.37 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 22.56 USD, the price of 33.88 USD leaves a potential of -33.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -50.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 39/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns, valuation. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Current ratio: 3.2x

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: 5.1%
  • FCF conversion: -53.8%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -38.4%
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Coal mining (SIC 122x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
17.2x
vertical median 15.3x
above median (+11.9%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 8.1x
P/S
—
vertical median 0.9x
P/B
—
vertical median 1.1x
ROE
3.4%
vertical median -0.1%
above median
Net margin
5.3%
vertical median 0.1%
above median (+9,194.7%)
EBIT margin
9.1%
vertical median -0.2%
above median
Revenue YoY
16.6%
vertical median -15.4%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
-1.0x
vertical median -0.6x
below median
Dividend yield
3.0%
vertical median 0.8%
above median (+274.3%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
HCCWarrior Met Coal, Inc.4.3 bn18.510.4%12.5%−14.1%+3% / +45%
CNRCore Natural Resources, Inc.4.0 bn40.42.7%2.3%+86.2%+0% / −25%
ARLPAlliance Resource Partners LP3.2 bn12.2—12.3%−10.4%+3% / +20%
BTUPeabody Energy Corp2.1 bn—-5.0%-4.3%−8.9%−38% / −29%
AMRAlpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.2.0 bn—-3.0%-2.2%−28.0%−3% / −45%
NRPNatural Resource Partners LP1.6 bn15.3——−16.6%+13% / +55%
METCRamaco Resources, Inc.310.0 m—-15.0%-12.2%−19.5%−56% / −57%
ARECAmerican Resources Corporation106.5 m1.6718.3%—−100.0%−64% / −40%
NCNacco Industries, Inc.—17.23.4%5.3%+16.6%−20% / −2%

1- and 3-year price returns: for NC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Scenarios are not available. input data missing

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).

In brief

NACCO Industries is a U.S. natural resources group that runs lignite coal mines under long-term management contracts, provides contract mining services to aggregates producers, and earns royalty income from oil and gas mineral interests. The company reported total revenue of 277.2 million USD for fiscal 2025 and reiterated an expected recurring EBITDA of about 50 million USD a year from current businesses 12.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Long-term contracts with management fees remove direct exposure to spot coal prices and support predictable cash flows 1.
  • Exclusive MTECK dragline dealership rights and long-standing relationships with major aggregates producers strengthen the Contract Mining position 1.
  • A conservative balance sheet and available liquidity provide flexibility for selective investment and debt reduction 2.

Weaknesses

  • The Utility Coal Mining segment depends on a few mines and on the dispatch of a single plant at MLMC, which makes profit sensitive to outages 1.
  • Operating profit in Utility Coal Mining declined in 2025, and the company anticipates an operating loss at MLMC in 2026 1.
  • Corporate costs, closed mine obligations and development spending on newer businesses have weighed on consolidated results 1.

Opportunities

  • Lithium, infrastructure and new quarry projects could extend Contract Mining beyond coal 12.
  • Mitigation Resources and ReGen Resources could add revenue if mitigation credit sales and energy projects materialize 12.
  • Mineral rights acquisitions in productive basins could add recurring royalty income if operators accelerate development 1.

Threats

  • Changes in energy or environmental policy could reduce customer demand for coal 1.
  • Oil and gas prices and delays by petroleum lessees could weigh on royalty income 12.
  • Delays in obtaining permits could postpone mitigation and restoration projects and extend the path to profitability 2.

Risks

  • Concentration on a single planthigh

    High fixed costs at MLMC mean that lower dispatch or reduced availability of the Red Hills plant can materially affect segment results 1.

  • Termination or default of long-term contractshigh

    Nearly all Utility Coal Mining profits come from long-term contracts, so a premature facility closure or contract default could have a material effect 1.

  • Mining and environmental regulationmedium

    Reclamation duties, permits and emissions rules can raise costs or delay projects, and estimates of closure liabilities may prove inaccurate 1.

  • Reserve estimates and title defectsmedium

    Coal reserve estimates are imprecise, and title defects or the loss of leases could limit mining of reserves 1.

  • Project and permit delayslow

    Delays in permits and in new project timelines could postpone expected revenue from mitigation credits and new contracts, particularly for Sawtooth and Mitigation Resources 2.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If long-term contracts and new projects execute on schedule, recurring EBITDA could grow gradually and the revenue base could become more predictable 12.
  • Rising electricity demand and coal's position as a baseload source could support Utility Coal Mining volumes if policy remains favorable 1.
  • Diversification across mining, minerals and restoration could reduce reliance on any single sector, and the conservative balance sheet provides room to maneuver 12.

What would break the thesis

  • Availability problems at MLMC and the anticipated operating loss in 2026 could reduce profitability in a transition year 1.
  • Consolidated operating profit fell in 2025, and new projects may contribute only gradually, which could prolong margin pressure 1.
  • Dependence on energy policy and on plant operators' dispatch decisions could make long-term revenue difficult to forecast 12.

What to watch

  • Availability of the Red Hills plant and its effect on MLMC resultsQ1 2027
  • Contribution of the Florida dragline project to Contract Mining results2026
  • Timing of initial lithium production at Thacker Pass and Sawtooth revenue2027
  • Pace of recurring EBITDA toward the 50 million USD target and of projects signed in 2025next 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).

The business

NACCO Industries, Inc. and its subsidiary NACCO Natural Resources Corporation operate exclusively in the United States and are organized into three reportable segments: Utility Coal Mining, Contract Mining and Minerals and Royalties 1. The Utility Coal Mining segment, operated by North American Coal, runs surface mines under exclusive long-term contracts that supply fuel to power plants, paid through management fees that remove exposure to spot coal prices 1. The company also runs businesses not reported as separate segments, including Mitigation Resources of North America for restoration and reclamation services and ReGen Resources for new power generation projects 1.

Contract Mining, which provides mining services for producers of industrial minerals, is the largest revenue contributor, while Utility Coal Mining and Minerals and Royalties complete the recurring revenue base 1. In 2025 the company signed a multi-year dragline services contract for a U.S. Army Corps of Engineers project in Palm Beach County, Florida, which management expects to be accretive to earnings from the second quarter of 2026 1.

Sawtooth Mining, a subsidiary of Contract Mining, is the exclusive provider of comprehensive mining services for the Thacker Pass lithium project in Nevada, which targets initial lithium production in late 2027 1. The company describes its model as built on long-term contracts that layer cash flows over time, but these estimates depend on project execution and customer timelines 12.

Segments

Contract Mining

The Contract Mining segment generated revenue of 140.0 million USD in fiscal 2025, up from 119.6 million USD in 2024, with operating profit roughly unchanged 1. The segment operates quarries in Florida, Arkansas and Nebraska and was expected to start operations at a quarry in Arizona in the first half of 2026 1.

Utility Coal Mining

The Utility Coal Mining segment recorded revenue of 88.2 million USD in 2025, up from 68.6 million USD in 2024, but operating profit fell to 17.2 million USD from 24.3 million USD 1. Plant availability issues at the Red Hills plant and cost per ton at MLMC weighed on results, and in February 2026 the company was notified of an unplanned outage that could lead to an operating loss at MLMC in 2026 1.

Minerals and Royalties

The Minerals and Royalties segment, which includes Catapult Mineral Partners, earned revenue of 37.6 million USD in 2025 and operating profit of 29.1 million USD, nearly unchanged from the prior year 1. Mineral acquisition activity focused on the Midland Basin, and an annual investment target of about 20 million USD is cited in the August 2026 investor presentation 12.

Market context

The company argues that rising demand for around-the-clock electricity from data centers, on-shoring and economic growth, together with the current political environment, supports coal's role as a baseload source in the U.S. energy mix, although these developments depend on federal policy and plant dispatch decisions 1. In aggregates, NACCO cites long-term relationships with several of the top ten U.S. producers, in a large but fragmented end market 12.

The oil and gas market relevant to royalty income depends on hydrocarbon prices, OPEC and government actions, and development plans of operators in the Permian, Haynesville and Appalachian basins, which the company treats as external variables 12.

Trends

  • Electricity demand for baseload powertailwind

    Growing demand for 24/7 electricity could support utilization of coal-fired plants and, indirectly, contracted mine volumes if dispatch stays favorable 1.

  • Federal policy and unstable regulationmixed

    Shifts in policy from one administration to the next could change environmental and reclamation requirements for operators, making long-term cost planning harder 1.

  • Expansion of contract miningtailwind

    New contracts with aggregates producers and infrastructure projects widen the Contract Mining base, but each new contract depends on execution timelines that can slip 12.

  • Costs and inflation in contractsmixed

    Management fees adjust with inflation-linked indices, which protects margins if adjustments match actual costs but may not during sudden rises in operating costs 1.

Competitive position

The supplied sources do not systematically name direct competitors, and the company's investor presentation argues that NACCO has a diversified profile with few direct peers 2. In contract mining it competes with specialized operators serving aggregates and industrial minerals producers, and in coal it competes indirectly with other energy sources that can displace coal in dispatch 1.

Advantages cited by the company include exclusive dealership rights for MTECK draglines in 48 states, long-standing customer relationships and operational experience, while demand for coal and the fuel mix in the power sector indirectly shape its competitive position 1.

  • Lithium Americas Corp.LAC

    Partner in the Thacker Pass project, for which Sawtooth provides mining services; a customer relationship rather than a direct competitor 1.

  • Other contract mining operators for aggregates

    Private or regional companies providing mine services to aggregates producers, competing for new multi-year contracts 1.

  • Operators of management-fee coal mines

    Operators running coal mines under contracts with power plants, competing for new fee-based contracts 1.

  • Oil and gas royalty and mineral companies

    Mineral rights holders in the Permian and Haynesville basins competing for similar acquisitions 12.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / NACCO Industries, Inc. · 04 Mar 2026
  2. [2] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / NACCO Industries, Inc. · 31 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.