olivLaw · US equity research
Perpetuals.com Ltd PDC
Services-Computer Programming Services · SIC 7371
Perpetuals.com Ltd, formerly Earlyworks, is a fintech company that, after acquiring Perpetual Markets Ltd in January 2026, combines proprietary artificial intelligence with regulated market infrastructure. The company is moving from a legacy blockchain business to the UpsideOnly platform and the Kronos X system, at a time when revenue has fallen and the net loss remains large, leaving substantial doubt about going-concern status.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Perpetuals.com Ltd (PDC) stock was 2.21 USD (+0.91% on the day), with market capitalisation 74.9 m USD, beta 1.24, 52-week range 2.04–8.33 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 41.0
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 1.94 – 3.58
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.17 · band width 59.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 3.02 / 4.64
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.24 / -0.19
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −32.8% | −1.1% | −31.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −26.6% | −0.5% | −26.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | −71.6% | +4.4% | −76.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | −65.9% | +12.3% | −78.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | −42.1% | +13.5% | −55.7 pp | — |
| 3 years | −27.5% | +76.4% | −104.0 pp | — |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | 342.4 k | 1.1 m | 3.1 m | 1.6 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +232.5% | +171.2% | −47.0% |
| Net income | -518.6 k | -3.8 m | -2.7 m | -2.4 m | -1.8 m | -17.5 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | -0.20 | -0.14 | -0.12 | -1.00 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | -782.7% | -207.0% | -58.3% | -1,069.9% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | -3.0 m | -2.5 m | -1.3 m | unavailable |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 30 Apr 2026
- Cash
- 847.8 k USD
- Financial debt
- 216.1 k USD
- Net debt
- -631.6 k USD
- Equity
- 45.7 m USD
- Total assets
- 65.3 m USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.00x
- Current ratio
- 0.12x
- ROE
- -75.8%
- ROA
- -52.5%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | 342.4 k | 1.1 m | 3.1 m | 1.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Sept 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | — | — | 224.3 k | 238.6 k | 1.5 m | 663.4 k | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Sept 2026verified |
| Gross profit | — | — | 118.1 k | 899.9 k | 1.6 m | 972.7 k | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Sept 2026verified |
| Research & development | — | — | 800.2 k | 482.9 k | 303.2 k | 150.4 k | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Sept 2026verified |
| Operating income | — | — | -2.9 m | -2.4 m | -1.7 m | -17.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Sept 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | — | — | — | — | 14.1 k | 159.4 k | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Sept 2026verified |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | — | -1.7 m ≈ | -17.4 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Sept 2026derived |
| Interest expense | — | — | 252 | 21.8 k | 12.4 k | 54.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Sept 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | — | — | -2.9 m | — | — | -17.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Sept 2026verified |
| Income tax | — | — | -1.2 k | -1.2 k | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Aug 2024verified |
| Net income | -518.6 k | -3.8 m | -2.7 m | -2.4 m | -1.8 m | -17.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Sept 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | -0.20 | -0.14 | -0.12 | -1.00 | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Sept 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 13.4 m | 13.8 m | 13.8 m | 14.8 m | 15.1 m | 17.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Sept 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | — | 4.8 m | 1.1 m | 2.1 m | 731.8 k | 847.8 k | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Sept 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | — | 227.5 k | 258.4 k | 64.1 k | 56.6 k | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Sept 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | — | 1.7 m | 3.4 m | 1.0 m | 1.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Sept 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | — | 15.2 k | 8.4 k | 6.5 k | 734.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Sept 2026verified |
| Goodwill | — | — | — | — | — | 62.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Sept 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | — | — | — | 74.5 k | 52.7 k | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Sept 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | — | 3.3 m | 3.7 m | 1.3 m | 65.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Sept 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | — | — | — | — | 85.3 k | 94.4 k | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Sept 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | — | 910.5 k | 756.6 k | 106.6 k | 97.1 k | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Sept 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | — | 501.9 k | 311.4 k | 237.4 k | 119.1 k | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Sept 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | — | 1.3 m | 1.2 m | 579.2 k | 13.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Sept 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | — | 1.8 m | 1.6 m | 816.6 k | 17.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Sept 2026verified |
| Equity | 2.1 m † | 4.1 m † | 1.3 m † | 2.1 m † | 472.5 k † | 45.7 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Sept 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | — | 15.0 m | 15.1 m | 15.1 m | 33.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Sept 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | — | — | -2.9 m | -2.5 m | -1.3 m | -4.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Sept 2026verified |
| Capex | — | — | 12.0 k | 2.1 k | 3.1 k | — | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Aug 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | — | — | -3.0 m ≈ | -2.5 m ≈ | -1.3 m ≈ | — | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Aug 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | — | — | -12.0 k | -636.9 k | 615.3 k | -2.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Sept 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | — | — | -576.6 k | 4.1 m | -836.5 k | 7.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Sept 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 74.9 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
89% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: EV/Salesunavailable · not enough peers
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin · Quality | 59.5% | 49 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| EBIT margin · Quality | -1,073.4% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| FCF margin · Quality | -250.5% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 68.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth | -47.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.1x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| EV/Sales · Valuation | 45.4x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -5.5% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Growth67/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality19/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/1 factors with a value
- Valuation0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Perpetuals.com Ltd (PDC). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-04-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.6 m USD in 2026; YoY growth -47.0%; net margin -1,069.9%; ROE -75.8%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 68.4%
What contradicts it
- EBIT margin: -1,073.4%
- FCF margin: -250.5%
- Revenue growth (YoY): -47.0%
- Current ratio: 0.1x
- EV/Sales: 45.4x
- FCF yield: -5.5%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions).
Versus the vertical median
Not enough comparable companies with data for an average.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 15 Sept 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (14 Oct 2026), 6-K (16 Sept 2026).
In brief
Perpetuals.com Ltd, formerly Earlyworks, is a fintech company that, after acquiring Perpetual Markets Ltd in January 2026, combines proprietary artificial intelligence with regulated market infrastructure. The company is moving from a legacy blockchain business to the UpsideOnly platform and the Kronos X system, at a time when revenue has fallen and the net loss remains large, leaving substantial doubt about going-concern status 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company holds a MiFID II licence and MiCA approval for PM MTF, giving a clear European regulatory framework 1.
- The Kronos X infrastructure is available as a white-label solution and runs in proprietary data centres in Germany and on the U.S. West Coast 1.
- The business model separates user participation from direct trading risk, which the company presents as a structural advantage 1.
Weaknesses
- The company has large net losses and a working capital deficit, and its auditor has expressed substantial doubt about going-concern status 1.
- Revenue fell in fiscal 2026, and the post-acquisition business has a limited operating history 1.
- The new U.S.-based management team has limited experience running a listed company 1.
Opportunities
Threats
Risks
- Going concernhigh
The auditor has expressed substantial doubt about the company's ability to continue as a going concern, and new financing is not assured 1.
- Dependence on BayesShield AIhigh
The UpsideOnly economic model depends on the AI's ability to identify profitable trades, and its performance could decline if market conditions change 1.
- Management transitionmedium
The move from a Japan-based structure to a U.S.-based one could affect governance and public reporting 1.
- Reliance on third partiesmedium
The platform depends on outside providers for market data and payments, and their disruption could affect operations 1.
- Cost of user acquisitionmedium
User acquisition relies largely on online advertising, and costs could rise as the company scales 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the Kronos X infrastructure and the European licence attract banks and brokers, recurring revenue could grow and reduce reliance on the legacy business.
- If the UpsideOnly model demonstrates it can generate profits for users and the company, the platform could become a differentiated revenue source.
- Extending PM MTF through MiCA could provide access to the EU digital-asset market, which could complement existing services.
What would break the thesis
- If net losses and the working capital deficit persist, the company could need additional financing on unfavourable terms.
- If BayesShield AI fails to sustain its performance, the UpsideOnly model could generate losses and reduce user trust.
- If regulation tightens or competitors with more mature models gain share, revenue from the new business could remain limited.
What to watch
- Trend in revenue and net loss from the post-acquisition businessnext 10-K
- New financing and whether it removes the going-concern doubt2027
- UpsideOnly performance and number of active usersQ1 2027
- New Kronos X contracts with banks, brokers and fintechs2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 15 Sept 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (14 Oct 2026), 6-K (16 Sept 2026).
The business
The company was incorporated in Japan in May 2018 and changed its name to Perpetuals.com Ltd after acquiring 100% of Perpetual Markets Ltd on January 20, 2026, when its Nasdaq ticker became PDC 1. Post-acquisition activities are operated mainly in the U.S., through Kephas Corporation, and aim to open global financial markets to more participants. For fiscal 2026 total revenue was JPY 256.3 million, compared with JPY 440.4 million in fiscal 2025, and net loss was JPY 733.3 million 1. The company says the legacy blockchain business generated most consolidated revenue in fiscal 2026, because the acquired subgroup was consolidated only from the acquisition date 1.
The UpsideOnly.com platform, launched in May 2026, lets users make predictions about markets using virtual capital, without risking their own money. The company trades with its own capital, and users may share in profits if their predictions contribute to successful outcomes 1. Revenue is tied to software development and consulting, and the business model depends on the ability of the BayesShield AI model to identify profitable opportunities 1.
The company says it relies not only on trading but also on providing infrastructure and services to other entities. Kronos X is offered as a white-label solution for banks, brokers and fintechs, and PM MTF Ltd, licensed in Cyprus, runs on this infrastructure 1. The company also offers tokenization services for real-world assets.
Market context
The company operates in retail trading, where participants typically use brokers, online platforms or prop trading firms. The sources cited show that in many models the trader bears the capital and risk, and loss rates are high: ESMA found that between 74% and 89% of retail CFD accounts lost money, and the CFTC indicates that about two in three retail FX traders lose money each quarter 1. These figures are taken from the company's filing and do not directly measure market size.
In trading infrastructure, the market for white-label exchange solutions is open to banks, brokers and fintechs in the European Union. PM MTF operates under an MiFID II licence and MiCA approval and could in principle be used across the EEA, but the source gives no market-share data 1.
Trends
- Stricter regulation of retail tradingmixed
Regulators have imposed leverage limits and restrictions on incentives, which could curb loss-generating trading models but could also favour platforms with European licences 1.
- Demand for asset tokenizationtailwind
The company offers tokenization services and extends PM MTF into digital assets through MiCA approval, which could open new client categories if market acceptance grows 1.
- Scepticism toward prediction and prop trading modelsheadwind
Negative trader experience with prop trading firms could reduce trust in prediction platforms, which could slow user acquisition and retention 1.
- Artificial intelligence in financial decisionsmixed
Machine-learning models for identifying trading opportunities can bring advantages but also model risks, and their effectiveness can fall when market conditions change 1.
Competitive position
The company faces traditional brokers, online trading platforms and prop or funded trader firms competing for the same retail users. The source does not analyse market share in detail but stresses that competitors' business models can differ considerably 1.
In trading infrastructure, Kronos X competes with exchange technology and white-label platform providers, and the claimed advantage is the MiFID II licence and MiCA approval. The source does not name competitors listed on U.S. exchanges 1.
- Traditional brokers and online trading platforms
Compete for retail traders through commissions, spreads and trading products; the source names no specific companies.
- Prop trading and funded trader firms
Compete for the same retail users through evaluations and profit-sharing programmes, with different economic models.
- Exchange technology and white-label platform providers
Compete for banks, brokers and fintechs looking for regulated trading infrastructure.
- Financial prediction platforms
Compete through prediction models for users who want to take part without their own capital.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Trading on US Stock Perpetuals Contracts Is Approved by CFTCBloomberg Markets · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Kalshi Rejects Wash Trading Claims as Report Flags Unusual Activity in Ethereum Perpetuals MarketYahoo Finance — News · 23 Sept 2026 · EN
- Coinbase files for SEC approval to offer equity perpetualsYahoo Finance — News · 03 Sept 2026 · EN
- Blockchain Association Urges SEC, CFTC to Bring Equity Perpetuals to US MarketsYahoo Finance — News · 26 Aug 2026 · EN
- CFTC Seeks Input on 24/7 Futures, Energy Perpetuals TradesBloomberg Markets · 23 Jun 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)14 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)16 Sept 2026
- Annual report (foreign issuer)15 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)06 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)14 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)07 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)06 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)01 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)02 Jun 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2026-04-30 · SEC / Perpetuals.com Ltd · 15 Sept 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.