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olivLaw · US equity research

Shopify Inc. SHOP

Services-Prepackaged Software · SIC 7372 · Vertical: Services-Prepackaged Software (SIC 7372)

153.03USD+7.34% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Shopify provides the core internet infrastructure for commerce, with an integrated platform that lets merchants sell online, in store and everywhere in between. The company shows accelerating growth: in the first half of 2026 GMV grew 33% and revenue 34%, supported by AI features and its own payments business.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Shopify Inc. (SHOP) stock was 153.03 USD (+7.34% on the day), with market capitalisation 0 USD, P/E 93.0 on diluted EPS of 1.65 USD over the last 12 months, beta 2.13, 52-week range 95.40–179.22 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 3.7 bn USD (+31.6% YoY), net income of 462.0 m USD (+75.0% YoY), diluted EPS 0.36 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
0 USD
shares as of 31 Dec 2015
P/E (TTM)
93.0
Diluted EPS TTM 1.65 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
1.08%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
2.13
Volatility (1y) 60%
52-week range
95.40179.22

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
44.1
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
149.75 – 184.85
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.09 · band width 21.0%
SMA 50 / 200
152.75 / 129.85
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.11 / 3.47
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−4.4%−1.1%−3.3 pp—
3 months+6.1%−0.5%+6.5 pp—
6 months+45.1%+4.4%+40.7 pp—
Year to date−4.9%+12.3%−17.2 pp—
1 year−4.9%+13.5%−18.5 pp−0.7%
3 years+149.0%+76.4%+72.5 pp+23.7%
5 years+0.1%+63.7%−63.5 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−44.2%
26 Dec 2025 → 13 May 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−84.8%
19 Nov 2021 → 11 Oct 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+0.0%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
3.7 bn USD
+31.6% YoY
Net income
462.0 m USD
+75.0% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.36
+80.0% YoY
net / operating
12.3% / 15.2%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue2.8 bn2.4 bn2.7 bn2.8 bn3.7 bn3.2 bn3.6 bn3.7 bn
Cost of revenue1.5 bn1.2 bn1.4 bn1.5 bn2.0 bn1.6 bn1.9 bn2.0 bn
Gross profit1.4 bn1.2 bn1.3 bn1.4 bn1.7 bn1.5 bn1.7 bn1.8 bn
Research & development351.0 m377.0 m394.0 m375.0 m390.0 m437.0 m445.0 m497.0 m
Operating income465.0 m203.0 m291.0 m343.0 m631.0 m382.0 m488.0 m568.0 m
Depreciation & amortisation8.0 m8.0 m8.0 m8.0 m7.0 m7.0 m7.0 m7.0 m
Income tax128.0 m-88.0 m173.0 m44.0 m149.0 m-53.0 m273.0 m37.0 m
Net income1.3 bn-682.0 m906.0 m264.0 m743.0 m-581.0 m1.5 bn462.0 m
Diluted EPS0.99 ≈-0.530.690.200.58 ≈-0.451.160.36
Operating cash flow615.0 m367.0 m428.0 m513.0 m725.0 m481.0 m658.0 m818.0 m
Capex4.0 m4.0 m6.0 m6.0 m10.0 m5.0 m4.0 m2.0 m
Share repurchases—000—491.0 m1.4 bn562.0 m

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 63 percentile of its own 8-quarter history (min 64.4, median 83.8, max 172.0; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue1.1 bn1.6 bn2.9 bn4.6 bn5.6 bn7.1 bn8.9 bn11.6 bn
Revenue YoY+59.4%+47.0%+85.6%+57.4%+21.4%+26.1%+25.8%+30.1%
Net income-64.6 m-124.8 m319.5 m2.9 bn-3.5 bn132.0 m2.0 bn1.2 bn
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailable+812.2%−218.7%unavailable+1,429.5%−39.0%
Diluted EPSunavailable-1.102.592.29-2.730.101.550.94
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailable−11.6%−219.2%unavailable+1,450.0%−39.4%
net %-6.0%-7.9%10.9%63.2%-61.8%1.9%22.7%10.7%
Free cash flow-18.6 m13.9 m383.2 m484.9 m-186.0 m905.0 m1.6 bn2.0 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
1.5 bn USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
13.5 bn USD
Total assets
15.2 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
5.96x
ROE
9.8%
ROA
8.5%
FCF margin
17.4%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
7.1 bn
2024
8.9 bn
2025
11.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
3.5 bn
2024
4.4 bn
2025
6.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
3.5 bn
2024
4.5 bn
2025
5.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Research & development
2023
1.7 bn
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-1.4 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
70.0 m
2024
36.0 m
2025
31.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
-1.3 bn ≈
2024
1.1 bn ≈
2025
1.5 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Feb 2023verified

Pre-tax income
2023
185.0 m
2024
2.2 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
53.0 m
2024
209.0 m
2025
278.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
132.0 m
2024
2.0 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.10
2024
1.55
2025
0.94

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.5 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
19.0 m
2024
26.0 m
2025
21.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
6.3 bn
2024
7.3 bn
2025
8.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
49.0 m
2024
47.0 m
2025
53.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
427.0 m
2024
452.0 m
2025
491.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
29.0 m
2024
22.0 m
2025
30.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
11.3 bn
2024
13.9 bn
2025
15.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
579.0 m
2024
737.0 m
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
898.0 m
2024
2.0 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
9.1 bn †
2024
11.6 bn †
2025
13.5 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
944.0 m
2024
1.6 bn
2025
2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
39.0 m
2024
19.0 m
2025
26.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
905.0 m ≈
2024
1.6 bn ≈
2025
2.0 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-1.2 bn
2024
-1.6 bn
2025
-1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
60.0 m
2024
61.0 m
2025
-811.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
30.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
27.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
31.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
36.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-39.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
31.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-39.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
-18.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
25.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
47.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
14.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
14.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
15.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
18.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
16.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
14.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
15.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
unavailable
the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used

Liquidity

Current ratio
4.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
2.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
21.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
2.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
125.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
127.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
55 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
0 USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
0.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
93.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
1.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
0.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
0.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
unavailable
insufficient data
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 59.6% of at least 60%
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

153.03 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 0 USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
0 USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
93.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
16.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
15.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
30.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

28/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 03 Nov 2026
verified 613derived 24

Score by group

60% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
  • Peers: EV/Salesunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Services-Prepackaged Software (SIC 7372)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 59.6% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
Gross margin · Quality47.5%19 (on a fixed band)18%
EBIT margin · Quality14.6%59 (vs peers)14%
FCF margin · Quality18.8%75 (on a fixed band)14%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth27.3%100 (on a fixed band)29%
Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth30.1%89 (vs peers)14%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet4.9x100 (on a fixed band)11%
EV/Sales · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Growth96/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality49/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/1 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Shopify Inc. (SHOP). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 11.6 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 30.1%; net margin 15.0%; ROE 16.8%.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 59.6% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF margin: 18.8%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 27.3%
  • Revenue growth (YoY): 30.1%
  • Current ratio: 4.9x

What contradicts it

  • Gross margin: 47.5%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, EV/Sales, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions).

Versus the vertical median

Services-Prepackaged Software (SIC 7372) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
93.0x
vertical median 42.8x
above median (+117.3%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 36.4x
P/S
0.0x
vertical median 7.2x
below median (−100.0%)
P/B
0.0x
vertical median 6.3x
below median (−100.0%)
ROE
16.8%
vertical median 10.7%
above median (+57.6%)
Net margin
15.0%
vertical median 10.6%
above median (+41.2%)
EBIT margin
14.6%
vertical median 12.0%
above median (+22.1%)
Revenue YoY
30.1%
vertical median 14.8%
above median (+104.2%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 0.7x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 1.0%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
MSFTMicrosoft Corporation4,127.5 bn29.034.2%41.2%+17.8%+13% / +47%
PLTRPalantir Technologies Inc.413.7 bn120.441.2%50.3%+56.2%+2% / +756%
ORCLOracle Corporation374.1 bn19.341.6%26.4%+17.3%−39% / +6%
CRWDCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.246.8 bn1,120.41.3%1.1%+21.7%+89% / +307%
CRMSalesforce, Inc.186.9 bn20.719.4%22.0%+9.6%−1% / −10%
NOWServicenow, Inc.112.9 bn78.111.8%9.4%+20.9%−33% / −21%
SNOWSnowflake Inc.102.5 bn—-48.2%-20.1%+29.2%+16% / +55%
ADBEAdobe Inc.96.7 bn13.961.9%28.0%+10.5%−22% / −59%
INTUIntuit Inc.95.3 bn21.723.6%21.3%+13.9%−44% / −38%
CDNSCadence Design Systems, Inc.90.4 bn65.522.9%22.5%+14.1%+6% / +21%
SNPSSynopsys Inc88.7 bn81.83.7%11.4%+15.1%+11% / −15%
ADSKAutodesk, Inc.56.4 bn35.053.9%21.1%+17.5%−11% / +24%
VEEVVeeva Systems Inc.50.3 bn50.814.4%29.3%+16.3%+29% / +78%
TTWOTake-Two Interactive Software, Inc.39.1 bn—-9.0%-4.8%+18.2%−15% / +32%
RBLXRoblox Corporation35.3 bn—-478.2%-16.5%+35.8%−48% / +25%
TWLOTwilio Inc.33.0 bn26.814.9%21.8%+13.7%+65% / +230%
MDBMongodb, Inc.26.5 bn449.12.0%2.1%+22.8%−1% / −21%
PTCPTC Inc.21.2 bn19.035.1%41.4%+19.2%+11% / +24%
UUnity Software Inc.18.7 bn—-18.9%-29.0%+2.0%−0% / +44%
SSNCSs&C Technologies Holdings, Inc.18.7 bn22.912.7%13.2%+6.6%−7% / +41%
NTNXNutanix, Inc.17.2 bn12.337,460.2%52.8%+12.4%+33% / +48%
TYLTyler Technologies, Inc.16.8 bn53.310.5%13.5%+9.1%−10% / +4%
DOCUDocusign, Inc.15.0 bn49.117.8%9.8%+8.2%+16% / +87%
GWREGuidewire Software, Inc.14.0 bn104.710.5%9.4%+22.7%−21% / +71%
DTDynatrace, Inc.13.4 bn87.06.4%7.4%+18.8%+5% / −13%

1- and 3-year price returns: for SHOP from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
input data missing
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
input data missing
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
input data missing
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
input data missing
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
input data missing
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
input data missing
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
input data missing
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
input data missing
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
input data missing
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (03 Nov 2026).

    In brief

    Shopify provides the core internet infrastructure for commerce, with an integrated platform that lets merchants sell online, in store and everywhere in between. The company shows accelerating growth: in the first half of 2026 GMV grew 33% and revenue 34%, supported by AI features and its own payments business.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • The platform shows strong growth, supported by GMV and revenue accelerating in 2026 23. The app and partner ecosystem extends functionality and attracts new merchants 1.
    • The revenue model combines recurring subscriptions with merchant success revenue, offering stability and scaling potential 1. The company generated significant free cash flow in the second quarter of 2026 3.
    • Cloud architecture and the single-branch software model let the company distribute improvements to all merchants quickly 1.

    Weaknesses

    • Merchant solutions margins are lower than subscription margins, which can reduce gross margin as this segment grows 1.
    • The company relies on third parties for key services, including cloud hosting and payment processing, which creates operational risk 1.
    • Small and mid-sized merchants are more sensitive to economic conditions, and their turnover can be high 1.

    Opportunities

    • Integration with AI platforms and new sales channels could open additional markets for merchants 1.
    • Expansion into enterprise and B2B could lift revenue from higher-tier plans if operations stay efficient 1.
    • If operating cost discipline continues, free cash flow margin could rise over time 3.

    Threats

    • Competitors with greater resources could adopt aggressive pricing or limit access to customer data 1.
    • Trade tariffs and geopolitical risks could reduce merchant spending and hit transaction volume 1.
    • Changes in data privacy rules and platform liability laws could add compliance costs 1.

    Risks

    • Merchant retentionmedium

      Merchants are not obliged to renew subscriptions, and losing them could hurt revenue, especially since acquiring new merchants is costly 1. The company says that as growth slows, performance could depend more on revenue from existing merchants 1.

    • Security of personal datahigh

      The platform stores personal and payment data of merchants and their buyers, and a breach could damage reputation and create legal liability 1. Third-party service providers that handle the data could add to the exposure.

    • Intense competitionmedium

      Competitors may have larger customer bases, stronger brands and greater financial resources, which could pressure prices or market share 1.

    • Regulation and liability for contentmedium

      Laws on platform liability for merchant content and financial regulation are changing, and new obligations could alter the product or its costs 1.

    • Seasonality and revenue volatilitylow

      Revenue is concentrated in the fourth quarter, and history may not be a reliable guide if seasonality increases 1. Growth could fluctuate from quarter to quarter.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • Accelerating GMV and revenue growth in 2026 suggests the platform is attracting new volume, and second-quarter performance ran ahead of the prior year 23.
    • If operating margins keep improving, free cash flow could support reinvestment and share repurchases, as seen in the first half of 2026 23.
    • Integration of AI and new sales channels could widen the addressable market, and the app ecosystem reinforces the platform's advantage 1.

    What would break the thesis

    • Growth increasingly depends on merchant solutions, which carry lower margins; if this effect deepens, gross margin could decline 1.
    • The market is highly competitive, and larger rivals could respond with aggressive pricing or restrictions on data access 1.
    • Regulatory, data security and trade risks could raise costs or slow expansion into new markets 1.

    What to watch

    • GMV and MRR growth rates compared with prior quartersQ3 2026
    • Gross margin trend as merchant solutions keep growing faster than subscriptionsQ3 2026
    • Third-quarter 2026 guidance: revenue growth in the low-thirties percent rangeQ3 2026
    • Fourth-quarter results and the degree of seasonality, as an indicator of revenue concentrationnext 10-K

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (03 Nov 2026).

    The business

    Shopify describes its business model as having two revenue components: subscriptions, called subscription solutions, and merchant solutions, which depend on merchant success. Merchant solutions revenue, dominated by payments processed through Shopify Payments, reached 76% of total revenue in fiscal 2025 1. The platform is built on multi-tenant cloud architecture, and merchants always run the latest version 1.

    The company says it helps merchants of all verticals and sizes, from early-stage entrepreneurs to large companies with direct-to-consumer or B2B operations. No single merchant has ever represented more than five percent of total revenue in a reporting period 1. The partner and app developer ecosystem is an important driver of platform growth 1.

    Strategy focuses on growing the merchant base, continuous platform innovation and artificial intelligence, through features such as the Sidekick assistant and Agentic Storefronts 1. Seasonality linked to the holiday season has historically lifted fourth-quarter results, but the company believes its business could become more seasonal as merchant solutions grow 1.

    Segments

    Segment trends in 2026

    Merchant solutions growth clearly outpaced subscriptions in the first half of 2026, lifting its share of revenue to 77% 2. If this trend continues, revenue could depend increasingly on payment volume processed through the platform.

    Market context

    The company operates in e-commerce software, which the filing describes as transforming, highly competitive and highly fragmented 1. Merchants come from more than 175 countries, and 44% of them are in the United States 1. With GMV reaching 378.4 billion USD in fiscal 2025, market growth is visible in the company's own figures 1.

    The company says its addressable market could expand through new sales channels, including AI platforms and physical retail 1. The number of entrepreneurs globally and consumer spending influence demand, and a decline in either could slow growth 1.

    Trends

    • AI-assisted commercemixed

      Shopify is extending AI features such as Sidekick and Agentic Storefronts, which enable product discovery and checkout through AI platforms 1. If this approach gains traction it could attract new merchants, although the technology is changing quickly.

    • Growth of integrated paymentsmixed

      Shopify Payments generates most merchant solutions revenue, and its growth has sharply lifted that revenue 2. Its lower margin may still reduce the company's overall gross margin 1.

    • Tariffs and cross-border tradeheadwind

      Tariffs and other trade measures can affect merchant spending, especially for small and mid-sized businesses, and could slow platform growth 1. Companies selling across borders could be the most exposed.

    • Revenue in foreign currenciesmixed

      A significant part of revenue and costs is in euros, pounds sterling and Canadian dollars, and currency swings can affect reported results 1. In the second quarter of 2026 the currency effect was small: revenue grew 34%, or 33% in constant currency 3.

    Competitive position

    The company says it faces competition from e-commerce software vendors, content management systems, payment processors and point-of-sale providers 1. Larger competitors may have bigger customer bases and resources, allowing more aggressive pricing 1.

    New entrants may emerge and some merchants could build their own solutions, including with AI tools 1. Large technology platforms could restrict access to customer data, which could hurt demand for the Shopify platform 1.

    • Large e-commerce platforms

      Competitors named only generically in the filing, with larger customer bases and resources 1.

    • Payment processors

      Payment processors are listed among the alternatives merchants can choose 1.

    • Point-of-sale providers

      POS providers compete with the POS Pro offering for merchants with physical stores 1.

    • Content management systems and marketplaces

      Content management systems and marketplaces can take some of merchants' sales 1.

    News & filings

    In the press

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Shopify Inc. · 11 Feb 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Shopify Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Shopify Inc. · 05 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.