olivLaw · US equity research
Shopify Inc. SHOP
Services-Prepackaged Software · SIC 7372 · Vertical: Services-Prepackaged Software (SIC 7372)
Shopify provides the core internet infrastructure for commerce, with an integrated platform that lets merchants sell online, in store and everywhere in between. The company shows accelerating growth: in the first half of 2026 GMV grew 33% and revenue 34%, supported by AI features and its own payments business.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Shopify Inc. (SHOP) stock was 153.03 USD (+7.34% on the day), with market capitalisation 0 USD, P/E 93.0 on diluted EPS of 1.65 USD over the last 12 months, beta 2.13, 52-week range 95.40–179.22 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 3.7 bn USD (+31.6% YoY), net income of 462.0 m USD (+75.0% YoY), diluted EPS 0.36 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 44.1
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 149.75 – 184.85
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.09 · band width 21.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 152.75 / 129.85
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.11 / 3.47
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −4.4% | −1.1% | −3.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | +6.1% | −0.5% | +6.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | +45.1% | +4.4% | +40.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | −4.9% | +12.3% | −17.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | −4.9% | +13.5% | −18.5 pp | −0.7% |
| 3 years | +149.0% | +76.4% | +72.5 pp | +23.7% |
| 5 years | +0.1% | +63.7% | −63.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.8 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.7 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 1.5 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn |
| Gross profit | 1.4 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn |
| Research & development | 351.0 m | 377.0 m | 394.0 m | 375.0 m | 390.0 m | 437.0 m | 445.0 m | 497.0 m |
| Operating income | 465.0 m | 203.0 m | 291.0 m | 343.0 m | 631.0 m | 382.0 m | 488.0 m | 568.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 8.0 m | 8.0 m | 8.0 m | 8.0 m | 7.0 m | 7.0 m | 7.0 m | 7.0 m |
| Income tax | 128.0 m | -88.0 m | 173.0 m | 44.0 m | 149.0 m | -53.0 m | 273.0 m | 37.0 m |
| Net income | 1.3 bn | -682.0 m | 906.0 m | 264.0 m | 743.0 m | -581.0 m | 1.5 bn | 462.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.99 ≈ | -0.53 | 0.69 | 0.20 | 0.58 ≈ | -0.45 | 1.16 | 0.36 |
| Operating cash flow | 615.0 m | 367.0 m | 428.0 m | 513.0 m | 725.0 m | 481.0 m | 658.0 m | 818.0 m |
| Capex | 4.0 m | 4.0 m | 6.0 m | 6.0 m | 10.0 m | 5.0 m | 4.0 m | 2.0 m |
| Share repurchases | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 491.0 m | 1.4 bn | 562.0 m |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 63 percentile of its own 8-quarter history (min 64.4, median 83.8, max 172.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.1 bn | 1.6 bn | 2.9 bn | 4.6 bn | 5.6 bn | 7.1 bn | 8.9 bn | 11.6 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +59.4% | +47.0% | +85.6% | +57.4% | +21.4% | +26.1% | +25.8% | +30.1% |
| Net income | -64.6 m | -124.8 m | 319.5 m | 2.9 bn | -3.5 bn | 132.0 m | 2.0 bn | 1.2 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +812.2% | −218.7% | unavailable | +1,429.5% | −39.0% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | -1.10 | 2.59 | 2.29 | -2.73 | 0.10 | 1.55 | 0.94 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | −11.6% | −219.2% | unavailable | +1,450.0% | −39.4% |
| net % | -6.0% | -7.9% | 10.9% | 63.2% | -61.8% | 1.9% | 22.7% | 10.7% |
| Free cash flow | -18.6 m | 13.9 m | 383.2 m | 484.9 m | -186.0 m | 905.0 m | 1.6 bn | 2.0 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.5 bn USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 13.5 bn USD
- Total assets
- 15.2 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 5.96x
- ROE
- 9.8%
- ROA
- 8.5%
- FCF margin
- 17.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.9 bn | 4.6 bn | 5.6 bn | 7.1 bn | 8.9 bn | 11.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 1.4 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.4 bn | 6.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.5 bn | 5.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 552.1 m | 854.4 m | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 90.2 m | 268.6 m | -822.0 m | -1.4 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 70.1 m | 66.3 m | 93.0 m | 70.0 m | 36.0 m | 31.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 160.2 m ≈ | 335.0 m ≈ | -729.0 m ≈ | -1.3 bn ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 9.1 m | 3.5 m | 3.5 m | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Feb 2023verified |
| Pre-tax income | — | — | — | 185.0 m | 2.2 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -79.1 m | 225.9 m | -163.0 m | 53.0 m | 209.0 m | 278.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 319.5 m | 2.9 bn | -3.5 bn | 132.0 m | 2.0 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.59 | 2.29 | -2.73 | 0.10 | 1.55 | 0.94 | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 123.5 m | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 2.7 bn | 2.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | — | — | 19.0 m | 26.0 m | 21.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 6.9 bn | 8.5 bn | 6.1 bn | 6.3 bn | 7.3 bn | 8.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 92.1 m | 105.5 m | 131.0 m | 49.0 m | 47.0 m | 53.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 311.9 m | 357.0 m | 1.8 bn | 427.0 m | 452.0 m | 491.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 135.7 m | 138.5 m | 390.0 m | 29.0 m | 22.0 m | 30.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 7.8 bn | 13.3 bn | 10.8 bn | 11.3 bn | 13.9 bn | 15.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 300.8 m | 456.7 m | 542.0 m | 579.0 m | 737.0 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 438.3 m | 702.7 m | 856.0 m | 898.0 m | 2.0 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 6.4 bn † | 11.1 bn † | 8.2 bn † | 9.1 bn † | 11.6 bn † | 13.5 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 425.0 m | 535.7 m | -136.0 m | 944.0 m | 1.6 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 41.7 m | 50.8 m | 50.0 m | 39.0 m | 19.0 m | 26.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 383.2 m ≈ | 484.9 m ≈ | -186.0 m ≈ | 905.0 m ≈ | 1.6 bn ≈ | 2.0 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -1.9 bn | -2.4 bn | -719.0 m | -1.2 bn | -1.6 bn | -1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 3.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 18.0 m | 60.0 m | 61.0 m | -811.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 59.6% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 0 USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
60% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
- Peers: EV/Salesunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 59.6% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin · Quality | 47.5% | 19 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| EBIT margin · Quality | 14.6% | 59 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF margin · Quality | 18.8% | 75 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 27.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 29% |
| Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth | 30.1% | 89 (vs peers) | 14% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 4.9x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| EV/Sales · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Growth96/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality49/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/1 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Shopify Inc. (SHOP). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 11.6 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 30.1%; net margin 15.0%; ROE 16.8%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 59.6% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF margin: 18.8%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 27.3%
- Revenue growth (YoY): 30.1%
- Current ratio: 4.9x
What contradicts it
- Gross margin: 47.5%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, EV/Sales, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions).
Versus the vertical median
Services-Prepackaged Software (SIC 7372) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFTMicrosoft Corporation | 4,127.5 bn | 29.0 | 34.2% | 41.2% | +17.8% | +13% / +47% |
| PLTRPalantir Technologies Inc. | 413.7 bn | 120.4 | 41.2% | 50.3% | +56.2% | +2% / +756% |
| ORCLOracle Corporation | 374.1 bn | 19.3 | 41.6% | 26.4% | +17.3% | −39% / +6% |
| CRWDCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | 246.8 bn | 1,120.4 | 1.3% | 1.1% | +21.7% | +89% / +307% |
| CRMSalesforce, Inc. | 186.9 bn | 20.7 | 19.4% | 22.0% | +9.6% | −1% / −10% |
| NOWServicenow, Inc. | 112.9 bn | 78.1 | 11.8% | 9.4% | +20.9% | −33% / −21% |
| SNOWSnowflake Inc. | 102.5 bn | — | -48.2% | -20.1% | +29.2% | +16% / +55% |
| ADBEAdobe Inc. | 96.7 bn | 13.9 | 61.9% | 28.0% | +10.5% | −22% / −59% |
| INTUIntuit Inc. | 95.3 bn | 21.7 | 23.6% | 21.3% | +13.9% | −44% / −38% |
| CDNSCadence Design Systems, Inc. | 90.4 bn | 65.5 | 22.9% | 22.5% | +14.1% | +6% / +21% |
| SNPSSynopsys Inc | 88.7 bn | 81.8 | 3.7% | 11.4% | +15.1% | +11% / −15% |
| ADSKAutodesk, Inc. | 56.4 bn | 35.0 | 53.9% | 21.1% | +17.5% | −11% / +24% |
| VEEVVeeva Systems Inc. | 50.3 bn | 50.8 | 14.4% | 29.3% | +16.3% | +29% / +78% |
| TTWOTake-Two Interactive Software, Inc. | 39.1 bn | — | -9.0% | -4.8% | +18.2% | −15% / +32% |
| RBLXRoblox Corporation | 35.3 bn | — | -478.2% | -16.5% | +35.8% | −48% / +25% |
| TWLOTwilio Inc. | 33.0 bn | 26.8 | 14.9% | 21.8% | +13.7% | +65% / +230% |
| MDBMongodb, Inc. | 26.5 bn | 449.1 | 2.0% | 2.1% | +22.8% | −1% / −21% |
| PTCPTC Inc. | 21.2 bn | 19.0 | 35.1% | 41.4% | +19.2% | +11% / +24% |
| UUnity Software Inc. | 18.7 bn | — | -18.9% | -29.0% | +2.0% | −0% / +44% |
| SSNCSs&C Technologies Holdings, Inc. | 18.7 bn | 22.9 | 12.7% | 13.2% | +6.6% | −7% / +41% |
| NTNXNutanix, Inc. | 17.2 bn | 12.3 | 37,460.2% | 52.8% | +12.4% | +33% / +48% |
| TYLTyler Technologies, Inc. | 16.8 bn | 53.3 | 10.5% | 13.5% | +9.1% | −10% / +4% |
| DOCUDocusign, Inc. | 15.0 bn | 49.1 | 17.8% | 9.8% | +8.2% | +16% / +87% |
| GWREGuidewire Software, Inc. | 14.0 bn | 104.7 | 10.5% | 9.4% | +22.7% | −21% / +71% |
| DTDynatrace, Inc. | 13.4 bn | 87.0 | 6.4% | 7.4% | +18.8% | +5% / −13% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for SHOP from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | input data missing Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | input data missing Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | input data missing Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | input data missing Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | input data missing Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | input data missing Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | input data missing Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | input data missing Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | input data missing Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (03 Nov 2026).
In brief
Shopify provides the core internet infrastructure for commerce, with an integrated platform that lets merchants sell online, in store and everywhere in between. The company shows accelerating growth: in the first half of 2026 GMV grew 33% and revenue 34%, supported by AI features and its own payments business.
SWOT
Strengths
- The platform shows strong growth, supported by GMV and revenue accelerating in 2026 23. The app and partner ecosystem extends functionality and attracts new merchants 1.
- The revenue model combines recurring subscriptions with merchant success revenue, offering stability and scaling potential 1. The company generated significant free cash flow in the second quarter of 2026 3.
- Cloud architecture and the single-branch software model let the company distribute improvements to all merchants quickly 1.
Weaknesses
- Merchant solutions margins are lower than subscription margins, which can reduce gross margin as this segment grows 1.
- The company relies on third parties for key services, including cloud hosting and payment processing, which creates operational risk 1.
- Small and mid-sized merchants are more sensitive to economic conditions, and their turnover can be high 1.
Opportunities
Risks
- Merchant retentionmedium
Merchants are not obliged to renew subscriptions, and losing them could hurt revenue, especially since acquiring new merchants is costly 1. The company says that as growth slows, performance could depend more on revenue from existing merchants 1.
- Security of personal datahigh
The platform stores personal and payment data of merchants and their buyers, and a breach could damage reputation and create legal liability 1. Third-party service providers that handle the data could add to the exposure.
- Intense competitionmedium
Competitors may have larger customer bases, stronger brands and greater financial resources, which could pressure prices or market share 1.
- Regulation and liability for contentmedium
Laws on platform liability for merchant content and financial regulation are changing, and new obligations could alter the product or its costs 1.
- Seasonality and revenue volatilitylow
Revenue is concentrated in the fourth quarter, and history may not be a reliable guide if seasonality increases 1. Growth could fluctuate from quarter to quarter.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Accelerating GMV and revenue growth in 2026 suggests the platform is attracting new volume, and second-quarter performance ran ahead of the prior year 23.
- If operating margins keep improving, free cash flow could support reinvestment and share repurchases, as seen in the first half of 2026 23.
- Integration of AI and new sales channels could widen the addressable market, and the app ecosystem reinforces the platform's advantage 1.
What would break the thesis
- Growth increasingly depends on merchant solutions, which carry lower margins; if this effect deepens, gross margin could decline 1.
- The market is highly competitive, and larger rivals could respond with aggressive pricing or restrictions on data access 1.
- Regulatory, data security and trade risks could raise costs or slow expansion into new markets 1.
What to watch
- GMV and MRR growth rates compared with prior quartersQ3 2026
- Gross margin trend as merchant solutions keep growing faster than subscriptionsQ3 2026
- Third-quarter 2026 guidance: revenue growth in the low-thirties percent rangeQ3 2026
- Fourth-quarter results and the degree of seasonality, as an indicator of revenue concentrationnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (03 Nov 2026).
The business
Shopify describes its business model as having two revenue components: subscriptions, called subscription solutions, and merchant solutions, which depend on merchant success. Merchant solutions revenue, dominated by payments processed through Shopify Payments, reached 76% of total revenue in fiscal 2025 1. The platform is built on multi-tenant cloud architecture, and merchants always run the latest version 1.
The company says it helps merchants of all verticals and sizes, from early-stage entrepreneurs to large companies with direct-to-consumer or B2B operations. No single merchant has ever represented more than five percent of total revenue in a reporting period 1. The partner and app developer ecosystem is an important driver of platform growth 1.
Strategy focuses on growing the merchant base, continuous platform innovation and artificial intelligence, through features such as the Sidekick assistant and Agentic Storefronts 1. Seasonality linked to the holiday season has historically lifted fourth-quarter results, but the company believes its business could become more seasonal as merchant solutions grow 1.
Segments
Segment trends in 2026
Merchant solutions growth clearly outpaced subscriptions in the first half of 2026, lifting its share of revenue to 77% 2. If this trend continues, revenue could depend increasingly on payment volume processed through the platform.
Market context
The company operates in e-commerce software, which the filing describes as transforming, highly competitive and highly fragmented 1. Merchants come from more than 175 countries, and 44% of them are in the United States 1. With GMV reaching 378.4 billion USD in fiscal 2025, market growth is visible in the company's own figures 1.
The company says its addressable market could expand through new sales channels, including AI platforms and physical retail 1. The number of entrepreneurs globally and consumer spending influence demand, and a decline in either could slow growth 1.
Trends
- AI-assisted commercemixed
Shopify is extending AI features such as Sidekick and Agentic Storefronts, which enable product discovery and checkout through AI platforms 1. If this approach gains traction it could attract new merchants, although the technology is changing quickly.
- Growth of integrated paymentsmixed
Shopify Payments generates most merchant solutions revenue, and its growth has sharply lifted that revenue 2. Its lower margin may still reduce the company's overall gross margin 1.
- Tariffs and cross-border tradeheadwind
Tariffs and other trade measures can affect merchant spending, especially for small and mid-sized businesses, and could slow platform growth 1. Companies selling across borders could be the most exposed.
- Revenue in foreign currenciesmixed
A significant part of revenue and costs is in euros, pounds sterling and Canadian dollars, and currency swings can affect reported results 1. In the second quarter of 2026 the currency effect was small: revenue grew 34%, or 33% in constant currency 3.
Competitive position
The company says it faces competition from e-commerce software vendors, content management systems, payment processors and point-of-sale providers 1. Larger competitors may have bigger customer bases and resources, allowing more aggressive pricing 1.
New entrants may emerge and some merchants could build their own solutions, including with AI tools 1. Large technology platforms could restrict access to customer data, which could hurt demand for the Shopify platform 1.
- Large e-commerce platforms
Competitors named only generically in the filing, with larger customer bases and resources 1.
- Payment processors
Payment processors are listed among the alternatives merchants can choose 1.
- Point-of-sale providers
POS providers compete with the POS Pro offering for merchants with physical stores 1.
- Content management systems and marketplaces
Content management systems and marketplaces can take some of merchants' sales 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Shopify Revenue Miss; Yum Brands Jumps on Taco Bell Sales | Stock MoversBloomberg Markets · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Shopify falls 9% after Q3 revenue and merchandise volume miss estimatesCNBC — Top News · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Shopify’s stock slides after earnings. This is what’s worrying Wall Street.MarketWatch — Top Stories · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Shopify Overexposed Scans GKE Ingresses and Cloud Run for ExposureInfoQ · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- Shopify-Like IPO Successes Becoming Rare in Canada, Nowlan SaysBloomberg Markets · 22 Oct 2026 · EN
- Microsoft, Shopify and 3 more AI stocks that are favorite Wall Street earnings playsMarketWatch — Top Stories · 17 Oct 2026 · EN
- Shopify opens its catalog up to more AI agentsThe Verge · 13 Oct 2026 · EN
- Shopify Upgrades Checkout Blocks to Polaris Web Components, Cutting Bundle Sizes up to 85%InfoQ · 09 Oct 2026 · EN
- Shopify extinde suportul WebMCP la Checkout pentru agenții din browser - Unite.AISurge — Google News · 28 Sept 2026 · RO
- ‘Shopify of mobile apps’ bilt.me raises $700K to turn ideas into mobile businessesTech.eu · 28 Sept 2026 · EN
- Sandisk, Lennar, Viking Therapeutics, Shopify, GameStop, and More Stocks That Explain Today’s MarketYahoo Finance — News · 22 Sept 2026 · EN
- SHOP Stock Jumps as Meta Expands Shopify PartnershipYahoo Finance — News · 22 Sept 2026 · EN
- Acțiunile Shopify se apreciază — și le datorează asta Meta Platforms - InvezzSurge — Google News · 22 Sept 2026 · RO
- Acțiunile Shopify se apreciază — și le datorează asta Meta Platforms - invezz.comSurge — Google News · 22 Sept 2026 · RO
- Why Shopify Stock, Twilio Are Rising On Meta's Muse RolloutYahoo Finance — News · 22 Sept 2026 · EN
- Stocks to Watch: Meta, Shopify, RocheYahoo Finance — News · 22 Sept 2026 · EN
- Meta Partners With Shopify to Introduce AI-Powered Shopping and Checkout in MuseYahoo Finance — News · 22 Sept 2026 · EN
- Amazon and Shopify make starkly different moves in the brewing battle over AI shoppingMarketWatch — Top Stories · 21 Sept 2026 · EN
- Shopify’s CEO Made Staff Prove AI Couldn’t Do Their Jobs. Now He Says They’re Tossing AI “Slop Grenades” at Each Other.Yahoo Finance — News · 21 Sept 2026 · EN
- A $10,000 Stake in Shopify Is Worth About $311,000 a Decade Later. The Business Grew Almost as Much as the Stock.Yahoo Finance — News · 19 Sept 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Quarterly report03 Nov 2026
- Current report03 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report02 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report16 Jun 2026Shareholder vote · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report02 Jun 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report08 May 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 May 2026
- Current report05 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Shopify Inc. · 11 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Shopify Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Shopify Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.