olivLaw · US equity research
Swarmer, Inc SWMR
Services-Prepackaged Software · SIC 7372 · Vertical: Services-Prepackaged Software (SIC 7372)
Swarmer, Inc (SWMR) develops autonomy software for drone swarms, sold mainly to drone manufacturers with military forces as end users. The company became public in March 2026 and is at a stage where revenue is still very small compared with losses, which makes its reliance on new contracts and equity financing relevant for investors. The net loss for the second quarter of 2026 was 7.3 million USD, while revenue stayed at 216,413 USD.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Swarmer, Inc (SWMR) stock was 7.73 USD (−16.16% on the day), with beta -0.07, 52-week range 7.73–78.52 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 27.7
- oversold (≤ 30)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 7.15 – 12.55
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.11 · band width 54.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 19.55 / unavailable
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -2.93 / -3.57
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −50.7% | −1.1% | −49.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −78.5% | −0.5% | −78.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | −73.2% | +4.4% | −77.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | unavailable | +12.3% | unavailable | — |
| 1 year | unavailable | +13.5% | unavailable | −1.8% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +76.4% | unavailable | +36.7% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
unavailable
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Valuation
unavailable
Versus the vertical median
Services-Prepackaged Software (SIC 7372) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFTMicrosoft Corporation | 4,127.5 bn | 29.0 | 34.2% | 41.2% | +17.8% | +13% / +47% |
| PLTRPalantir Technologies Inc. | 413.7 bn | 120.4 | 41.2% | 50.3% | +56.2% | +2% / +756% |
| ORCLOracle Corporation | 374.1 bn | 19.3 | 41.6% | 26.4% | +17.3% | −39% / +6% |
| CRWDCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | 246.8 bn | 1,120.4 | 1.3% | 1.1% | +21.7% | +89% / +307% |
| CRMSalesforce, Inc. | 186.9 bn | 20.7 | 19.4% | 22.0% | +9.6% | −1% / −10% |
| NOWServicenow, Inc. | 112.9 bn | 78.1 | 11.8% | 9.4% | +20.9% | −33% / −21% |
| SNOWSnowflake Inc. | 102.5 bn | — | -48.2% | -20.1% | +29.2% | +16% / +55% |
| ADBEAdobe Inc. | 96.7 bn | 13.9 | 61.9% | 28.0% | +10.5% | −22% / −59% |
| INTUIntuit Inc. | 95.3 bn | 21.7 | 23.6% | 21.3% | +13.9% | −44% / −38% |
| CDNSCadence Design Systems, Inc. | 90.4 bn | 65.5 | 22.9% | 22.5% | +14.1% | +6% / +21% |
| SNPSSynopsys Inc | 88.7 bn | 81.8 | 3.7% | 11.4% | +15.1% | +11% / −15% |
| ADSKAutodesk, Inc. | 56.4 bn | 35.0 | 53.9% | 21.1% | +17.5% | −11% / +24% |
| VEEVVeeva Systems Inc. | 50.3 bn | 50.8 | 14.4% | 29.3% | +16.3% | +29% / +78% |
| TTWOTake-Two Interactive Software, Inc. | 39.1 bn | — | -9.0% | -4.8% | +18.2% | −15% / +32% |
| KCKingsoft Cloud Holdings Ltd | 36.3 bn | — | -13.1% | -9.8% | +28.2% | −34% / +85% |
| RBLXRoblox Corporation | 35.3 bn | — | -478.2% | -16.5% | +35.8% | −48% / +25% |
| TWLOTwilio Inc. | 33.0 bn | 26.8 | 14.9% | 21.8% | +13.7% | +65% / +230% |
| MDBMongodb, Inc. | 26.5 bn | 449.1 | 2.0% | 2.1% | +22.8% | −1% / −21% |
| PTCPTC Inc. | 21.2 bn | 19.0 | 35.1% | 41.4% | +19.2% | +11% / +24% |
| UUnity Software Inc. | 18.7 bn | — | -18.9% | -29.0% | +2.0% | −0% / +44% |
| SSNCSs&C Technologies Holdings, Inc. | 18.7 bn | 22.9 | 12.7% | 13.2% | +6.6% | −7% / +41% |
| NTNXNutanix, Inc. | 17.2 bn | 12.3 | 37,460.2% | 52.8% | +12.4% | +33% / +48% |
| TYLTyler Technologies, Inc. | 16.8 bn | 53.3 | 10.5% | 13.5% | +9.1% | −10% / +4% |
| DOCUDocusign, Inc. | 15.0 bn | 49.1 | 17.8% | 9.8% | +8.2% | +16% / +87% |
| GWREGuidewire Software, Inc. | 14.0 bn | 104.7 | 10.5% | 9.4% | +22.7% | −21% / +71% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for SWMR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Swarmer, Inc (SWMR) develops autonomy software for drone swarms, sold mainly to drone manufacturers with military forces as end users. The company became public in March 2026 and is at a stage where revenue is still very small compared with losses, which makes its reliance on new contracts and equity financing relevant for investors. The net loss for the second quarter of 2026 was 7.3 million USD 1, while revenue stayed at 216,413 USD 2.
SWOT
Strengths
- Software independent of hardware that can be integrated into several drone types, with operational experience from real combat missions 2.
- Partnerships with several manufacturers and data providers that extend access to platforms and training information 2.
- Improved liquidity after the IPO and the ELOC, supporting development plans 12.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Continuing losses and accumulated deficithigh
The company is not yet profitable and its accumulated deficit is growing; if revenue does not rise enough, further financing could become necessary sooner 1.
- Customer concentrationhigh
A small number of customers and contracts can produce high revenue volatility, and losing one major contract would have a significant effect 1.
- Dilution from share salesmedium
Sales through the ELOC and other issuances can dilute existing shareholders; the company is under no obligation to sell shares but can use them extensively 1.
- Geopolitical and regulatory riskshigh
Operations in Ukraine and export restrictions could affect deliveries, customers and costs 2.
- Dependence on technical talentmedium
Software development depends on a few key specialists, and losing them could slow projects 2.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If evaluation programs turn into larger-scale deployments, license revenue could grow quickly and the company could become an important software layer across several platforms 2.
- Combat experience and the data it generates could offer a technical edge that new competitors find hard to replicate 2.
- Funding obtained through the IPO and the ELOC could cover development spending for a period, reducing the immediate liquidity risk 12.
What would break the thesis
- If revenue stays concentrated in a few contracts, losing one customer could seriously affect results, and losses could continue 1.
- If share sales continue, dilution of existing shareholders could become significant, and the issue price could be affected 1.
- If drone makers develop their own software or choose other suppliers, the company's market share could shrink 1.
What to watch
- Revenue trend from the SkyKnight program and conversion of upgrade options into contractsQ3 2026
- Number of customers and new partnerships moving from memorandum to contractQ3 2026
- Level of operating expenses and net loss compared with the second quarter of 2026Q3 2026
- Pace of share sales through the ELOC and effect on available cashnext 10-Q
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Swarmer provides software for autonomy and coordination of unmanned aerial systems, focused on drone swarms, with headquarters in Austin, Texas, and teams in Ukraine, Poland and Estonia 2. The company does not manufacture drones; it licenses its software to platform makers, who integrate it into their hardware, and the end users are military forces and defense organizations 1. Swarmer OS has been used in combat missions since April 2024, an experience the company presents as its main commercial argument 2.
The revenue model rests on initial license fees and support services, with upgrade options that could bring additional amounts 1. In June 2026 the company expanded the SkyKnight program, raising contracted value from 2.9 million USD to 3.9 million USD, while upgrade options could take the maximum value to about 14.2 million USD if fully exercised 2. Revenue is concentrated in a small number of customers, roughly six as of June 30, 2026 1.
During 2026 the company went through several financings: a sale of convertible preferred stock, an IPO with gross proceeds of 17.3 million USD, and an equity line of credit through which shares worth about 26.8 million USD were sold between June 15 and August 10, 2026 1. These sources explain most of the rise in cash, which reached 25.3 million USD at June 30, 2026 2. The accumulated deficit of 22.4 million USD shows that this funding model will remain necessary as long as revenue does not cover costs 1.
Segments
Drone software licenses (SkyKnight program)
Most recent revenue comes from licenses under the SkyKnight program, with initial license fees and upgrade options 12. Of the 1.5 million USD invoiced in the second quarter of 2026, only part was recognized as revenue, the rest being recorded as deferred revenue or an advance 2.
Support and integration services
Agreements also include support services and integration of the software into third-party platforms, renewing automatically each year 1. Partnerships with makers such as Oak Grove Technologies, Lantronix and Brightline Interactive extend this segment, but their revenue is not yet reported separately 2.
Market context
Swarmer operates in the market for autonomous systems and collaborative drones used by military forces, where demand has grown along with deployment volumes 2. The company says it positions itself as a software layer independent of hardware, which could reduce dependence on a single manufacturer 2. The market is however shaped by military procurement cycles and government budgets, which can delay the conversion of pilots into contracts 2.
The military drone industry is marked by fast development but also by geopolitical conditions and export rules that can change access to customers 2. Operations in Ukraine bring both an advantage in combat data and risks linked to security and the region 2.
Trends
- Rising demand for autonomous systemstailwind
The company states that demand for autonomous and collaborative units is accelerating, and programs increasingly move from evaluation to larger-scale deployment 2. If this transition occurs, licenses could grow faster than development costs 2.
- Defense budgets and procurement cyclesheadwind
Government budget priorities and procurement procedures can delay contract signing, especially when pilots have not yet become firm commitments 2.
- Combat data for training AI modelsmixed
Combat operations generate telemetry and sensor data that the company uses to train its models, and data partnerships extend this advantage 2. However, using such data brings security and data quality requirements 2.
- Equity financingmixed
Access to cash through the IPO and the ELOC supported spending in 2026, but share sales dilute existing shareholders, and the issue price depends on the market 1.
Competitive position
The autonomy software market for military use includes drone makers developing their own systems, defense integrators and specialized software suppliers. Swarmer differentiates itself through independence from hardware, but remains a company with few integrated platforms and limited operational experience compared with major industry players 2.
End customers can choose between solutions developed in-house by armed forces and external products, and drone makers may prefer software integrated from the start into their platform 12. If a competitor offers deeper integration, Swarmer could lose positions in partnerships 2.
- Autonomy and swarm coordination software suppliers
Companies offering coordination and autonomy software for military platforms, some with products competing with Swarmer's 2.
- Drone makers with in-house software
Manufacturers that integrate their own autonomy systems, reducing the need for an outside supplier 1.
- Defense system integrators
Companies combining several technologies for military customers and able to choose or develop their own solutions 1.
- Compute and data platform providers for drones
Partners or competitors in onboard computing and data, which can influence software integration 2.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Tehnologia militară ucraineană atrage tot mai mult capital american: Tranzacție de 224 de milioane de dolari între Swarmer și Ratel RoboticsDefenseRomania.ro · 11 Sept 2026 · RO
- American company Swarmer buys Ukrainian ground robot maker for US$224m – WSJUkrainska Pravda (UA, EN) · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 11 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 03 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report03 Nov 2026Shareholder vote
- Current report10 Sept 2026Material agreement · Item 3.02 · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report19 Aug 2026Other events
- Quarterly report14 Aug 2026
- Current report14 Aug 2026Regulation FD disclosure
- Current report13 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report29 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report27 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report30 Jun 2026Material agreement
- Current report29 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers
Sources
- [1] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Swarmer, Inc · 14 Aug 2026
- [2] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Swarmer, Inc · 13 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.