olivLaw · US equity research
T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. TROW
Investment Advice · SIC 6282 · Vertical: Investment Advice (SIC 6282)
T. Rowe Price Group is a financial services holding company with assets under management of 1893.4 billion USD at June 30, 2026, up from 1775.6 billion USD at year-end 2025. In the second quarter of 2026 it reported net revenues of 1907.4 million USD, but also net client outflows of 6.5 billion USD, which points to continued pressure on active funds.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (TROW) stock was 112.57 USD (+5.97% on the day), with market capitalisation 24.0 bn USD, P/E 11.3 on diluted EPS of 9.94 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 4.59%, beta 1.11, 52-week range 86.19–121.68 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 2.0 bn USD (+5.9% YoY), net income of 612.3 m USD (−5.2% YoY), diluted EPS 2.79 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 69.4
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 98.31 – 109.31
- above the upper band · %B 1.30 · band width 10.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 105.41 / 103.72
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.74 / -0.25
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +8.3% | −1.1% | +9.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | −2.1% | −0.5% | −1.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | +6.1% | +4.4% | +1.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | +10.0% | +12.3% | −2.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | +11.2% | +13.5% | −2.4 pp | −6.9% |
| 3 years | +17.7% | +76.4% | −58.7 pp | +33.6% |
| 5 years | −49.1% | +63.7% | −112.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn |
| Operating income | 568.4 m | 596.3 m | 478.3 m | 643.2 m | 471.0 m | 680.5 m | 540.5 m | 769.8 m |
| Pre-tax income | 573.0 m | 667.0 m | 713.8 m | 881.6 m | 613.1 m | 632.2 m | 909.6 m | 787.4 m |
| Income tax | 156.3 m | 161.9 m | 157.7 m | 195.1 m | 152.5 m | 148.1 m | 214.2 m | 190.3 m |
| Net income | 439.9 m | 490.5 m | 505.2 m | 646.1 m | 445.3 m | 498.2 m | 632.0 m | 612.3 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.98 ≈ | 2.15 | 2.24 | 2.87 | 2.04 ≈ | 2.23 | 2.88 | 2.79 |
| Operating cash flow | -281.9 m | 632.9 m | 529.9 m ≈ | 609.3 m ≈ | -18.7 m | 824.3 m | 517.3 m ≈ | 543.3 m ≈ |
| Capex | 113.0 m | 82.0 m | 62.2 m ≈ | 63.3 m ≈ | 66.7 m | 62.0 m | 66.4 m ≈ | 72.7 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 284.6 m | 289.5 m | 285.6 m ≈ | 283.4 m ≈ | 284.5 m | 289.1 m | 282.1 m ≈ | 285.3 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 68.1 m | 215.2 m | 113.1 m ≈ | 153.5 m ≈ | 139.1 m | 333.5 m | 167.3 m ≈ | 100.0 k ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 16 percentile of its own 44-quarter history (min 9.6, median 14.4, max 18.4; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.4 bn | 5.6 bn | 6.2 bn | 7.7 bn | 6.5 bn | 6.5 bn | 7.1 bn | 7.3 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +10.7% | +4.6% | +10.5% | +23.6% | −15.4% | −0.4% | +9.8% | +3.1% |
| Net income | 1.8 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | 3.1 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn |
| Net income YoY | +22.7% | +16.0% | +11.3% | +29.9% | −49.5% | +14.8% | +17.4% | −0.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 7.27 | 8.70 | 9.98 | 13.12 | 6.70 | 7.76 | 9.15 | 9.24 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +21.8% | +19.7% | +14.7% | +31.5% | −48.9% | +15.8% | +17.9% | +1.0% |
| net % | 34.2% | 37.9% | 38.2% | 40.2% | 24.0% | 27.7% | 29.6% | 28.5% |
| Free cash flow | 1.5 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.7 bn | 3.2 bn | 2.1 bn | 911.2 m | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 3.4 bn USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 11.0 bn USD
- Total assets
- 14.3 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 19.4%
- ROA
- 15.0%
- FCF margin
- 20.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.2 bn | 7.7 bn | 6.5 bn | 6.5 bn | 7.1 bn | 7.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 2.7 bn | 3.7 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 3.2 bn | 4.0 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 718.9 m | 896.1 m | 498.6 m | 654.6 m | 683.8 m | 667.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 2.4 bn | 3.1 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 9.98 | 13.12 | 6.70 | 7.76 | 9.15 | 9.24 | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 231.2 m | 228.8 m | 227.1 m | 224.8 m | 223.3 m | 220.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 3.60 | 4.32 | 4.80 | 4.88 | 4.96 | 5.08 | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 2.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 695.4 m | 736.2 m | 755.7 m | 806.6 m | 977.0 m | 845.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 665.7 m | 2.7 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 0 | 913.4 m | 629.8 m | 507.3 m | 368.1 m | 274.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 10.7 bn | 12.5 bn | 11.6 bn | 12.3 bn | 13.5 bn | 14.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.4 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 7.7 bn | 9.3 bn | 9.0 bn | 9.7 bn | 10.5 bn | 11.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.9 bn | 3.5 bn | 2.4 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 214.6 m | 239.1 m | 237.6 m | 307.9 m | 423.4 m | 274.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 1.7 bn ≈ | 3.2 bn ≈ | 2.1 bn ≈ | 911.2 m ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -36.3 m | -1.1 bn | -41.5 m | 128.2 m | -177.5 m | 230.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -1.5 bn | -3.0 bn | -2.1 bn | -1.1 bn | -936.6 m | -1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 845.8 m | 1.7 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 849.8 m | 254.4 m | 337.2 m | 620.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 24.0 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
58% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 66.76 – 283.11 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E252.78 – 283.11 (Mid 279.41)3 companies used · median multiple 28.1x · quartiles 25.4x – 28.5xBEN, BX, KKR
- Dividend discount (DDM)66.76 – 89.78 (Mid 76.57)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 28.4% | 100 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 73.1% | 62 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 4.1% | 34 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 11.3% | 75 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 11.3x | 100 (vs peers) | 18% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 6.7% | 83 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 7.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 71.4% | 69 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth55/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality81/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns88/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation93/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
PRICE T ROWE GROUP INC (TROW). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 7.3 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 3.1%; net margin 28.4%; ROE 19.7%.
The estimated value range is 159.77–186.44 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 177.99 USD, the price of 112.57 USD leaves a potential of 58.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 36.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 28.4%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 11.3%
- P/E (TTM): 11.3x
- FCF yield: 6.7%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 7.4%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Investment Advice (SIC 6282) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies
Only companies with a capitalisation between 2.8 bn and 176.5 bn (within 8× of the company's); 36 of the vertical were left out.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BXBlackstone Inc. | 94.3 bn | 28.1 | 40.5% | 21.8% | +9.2% | −14% / +12% |
| KKRKkr & Co. Inc. | 91.0 bn | 28.9 | 10.6% | 14.8% | −11.0% | −17% / +34% |
| APOApollo Global Management, Inc. | 72.5 bn | 43.8 | 9.3% | 5.2% | +22.7% | −7% / +33% |
| AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc. | 45.8 bn | 11.9 | 72.0% | 20.7% | +5.5% | +16% / +49% |
| TROWPrice T Rowe Group Inc | 24.0 bn | 11.3 | 19.7% | 28.4% | +3.1% | +11% / +18% |
| BENFranklin Resources Inc | 17.2 bn | 22.8 | 6.8% | 8.7% | +3.5% | +50% / +37% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TROW from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 68.38 Total return -36% · Per year -36% | 120.91 Total return 12% · Per year 12% | 182.15 Total return 68% · Per year 68% |
| 3 years | 65.80 Total return -31% · Per year -11% | 130.97 Total return 32% · Per year 10% | 216.72 Total return 112% · Per year 28% |
| 5 years | 63.31 Total return -26% · Per year -6% | 141.86 Total return 53% · Per year 9% | 257.85 Total return 165% · Per year 21% |
- Exit P/E± 32.74
- Net margin± 22.92
- Annual revenue growth± 18.89
- Annual dilution± 1.93
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
T. Rowe Price Group is a financial services holding company with assets under management of 1893.4 billion USD at June 30, 2026 2, up from 1775.6 billion USD at year-end 2025 1. In the second quarter of 2026 it reported net revenues of 1907.4 million USD 3, but also net client outflows of 6.5 billion USD 3, which points to continued pressure on active funds.
SWOT
Strengths
- A long track record, a broad range of capabilities and a diversified distribution network covering mutual funds, ETFs and separate accounts support the firm's position 1.
- Financial strength allows investment in new products and technology despite cost pressures 1.
- A presence in many countries and a diversified client base reduce dependence on a single market or channel 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Dependence on asset valueshigh
Revenue is tied to the value and mix of assets under management, which can fall in weak markets 1.
- Net client outflowshigh
Investors can withdraw funds at any time with little notice, and outflows from active strategies could continue if performance lags 13.
- Short-notice contractsmedium
Most revenue comes from contracts with commingled vehicles that can be terminated on short notice, which could quickly affect income 1.
- Regulatory pressuremedium
Regulatory changes can raise compliance costs and limit some activities 1.
- Operational and reputational risklow
Personnel errors, service provider failures or flaws in quantitative models can affect results and reputation 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Trend in net client outflows and asset mixQ3 2026
- Effective fee rate excluding performance feesQ3 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
The company provides global investment advisory services through its subsidiaries, with more than 85 years of experience 1. Its range covers equity, fixed income, multi-asset and alternatives capabilities, distributed through U.S. mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, collective investment trusts, separately managed accounts and other products 1. Revenue comes mostly from fees calculated as a percentage of assets under management, and nearly 55% of advisory fees come from sponsored U.S. mutual funds 1.
Management describes a multi-year plan to align expense growth with anticipated revenue growth, including targeted role eliminations, outsourcing of some technology capabilities and the exit of certain owned buildings 1. The company recorded a restructuring charge in 2025 1 and a separate restructuring charge in the second quarter of 2026 3.
Market context
Trends
- Shift to passive productsheadwind
Investors increasingly prefer lower-cost passive products, which could reduce the firm's share of active assets if the trend continues 1.
- Strong equity marketstailwind
Good equity returns in 2025 and the first half of 2026 lifted AUM, although the effect depends on the climate staying favourable 12.
- Fee compressionheadwind
Lower fees and a shift of the asset mix towards low-fee products have reduced the effective fee rate 3.
- Retirement and target date channelmixed
Target date products and retirement plan administration are a source of steadier growth, but net flows in this channel were lower in 2025 than in 2024 1.
Competitive position
The company competes with financial institutions that have greater resources and broader product ranges, and some of these operate under different regulatory regimes 1. Competition is based on investment performance, fees, the quality of advice and technology 1.
Industry consolidation has added pressure on fees and changed the competitive landscape, while similar products offered by competitors can affect confidence in the firm's products regardless of its own performance 1.
- Passive product providers
Managers of passive products have gained market share from active managers, as described in the annual report 1.
- Large financial institutions
These have greater resources and wider product offerings across several markets, according to the sources 1.
- Managers with similar products
Failure or weak performance of competitors' products can affect confidence in the firm's similar products 1.
- Competitors under different regulation
Some competitors operate under other rules, which can give them advantages in product structures 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- How Is T. Rowe Price's Stock Performance Compared to Other Financial Stocks?Yahoo Finance — News · 15 Sept 2026 · EN
- ETFs Are an Engine of Growth, Says T. Rowe Price’s SawyerBloomberg Markets · 31 Aug 2026 · EN
- T. Rowe Price Bets on Fixed-Income ETFs With F/m Investments DealYahoo Finance — News · 25 Aug 2026 · EN
- T. Rowe Price to buy fixed income fund manager F/m InvestmentsYahoo Finance — News · 24 Aug 2026 · EN
- T. Rowe Price Bets Big on Fixed Income With F/m DealYahoo Finance — News · 24 Aug 2026 · EN
- T. Rowe Price Says Nigeria Attractive Even After 64% Stock RallyBloomberg Markets · 21 Aug 2026 · EN
- T.Rowe Price's Loefstrand on Frontier MarketsBloomberg Markets · 21 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 15 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 29 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report29 Oct 2026
- Current report29 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report31 Jul 2026
- Current report31 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report11 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report30 Apr 2026
- Current report30 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report22 Apr 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement17 Mar 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. · 13 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. · 31 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. · 31 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.