olivLaw · European equity research
AMG Critical Materials N.V. AMG.AS
Netherlands · Euronext Amsterdam · ISIN NL0000888691 · Vertical: Listed companies from Netherlands
AMG Critical Materials N.V. processes metals and critical materials, with a focus on lithium, vanadium and technologies for batteries and energy. With prices recovering in 2026 and an investment plan of tens of millions of dollars, the company could regain profitability if the price cycle is confirmed. Fiscal 2025 brought revenue of 1,708 million USD, and the adjusted EBITDA outlook for 2026 sits between 210 and 240 million USD.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, AMG Critical Materials N.V. (AMG.AS) stock was 23.66 EUR (−2.39% on the day), with beta 1.26, 52-week range 22.74–42.12 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 35.5
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 21.52 – 28.01
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.33 · band width 26.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 27.89 / 32.90
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -1.22 / -1.37
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −18.8% | +0.4% | −19.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | −24.9% | −3.3% | −21.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | −38.9% | +4.0% | −42.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | −16.7% | +8.1% | −24.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | −12.8% | +10.7% | −23.5 pp | +0.8% |
| 3 years | −4.0% | +50.1% | −54.1 pp | −0.2% |
| 5 years | −7.2% | +43.6% | −50.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.6 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −11.4% | +18.6% |
| Net income | 101.3 m | -33.4 m | -18.6 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −132.9% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 3.12 | -1.03 | -0.58 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −133.0% | unavailable |
| net % | 6.2% | -2.3% | -1.1% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 278.7 m USD
- Financial debt
- 795.4 m USD
- Net debt
- 516.7 m USD
- Equity
- 555.3 m USD
- Total assets
- 2.3 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 1.43x
- Current ratio
- 1.52x
- ROE
- -3.4%
- ROA
- -0.9%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.6 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 389.4 m | 228.0 m | 308.2 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 221.8 m | 44.2 m | 99.5 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 49.7 m | 62.5 m | 65.7 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 197.3 m | -2.4 m | 43.3 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 95.0 m | 23.4 m | 57.6 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 101.3 m | -33.4 m | -18.6 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 3.12 | -1.03 | -0.58 | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.88 | 0.43 | 0.46 | esef· 24 Mar 2026derived |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 345.3 m | 294.3 m | 278.7 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 164.0 m | 169.9 m | 143.6 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 260.9 m | 304.1 m | 392.6 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 882.7 m | 872.6 m | 1.0 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 921.2 m | 961.8 m | 1.0 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.3 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 7.7 m | 10.4 m | 47.4 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 656.3 m | 748.2 m | 748.0 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 473.3 m | 516.1 m | 690.9 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 606.0 m | 550.2 m | 555.3 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 32.2 m | 32.4 m | 32.1 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 223.0 m | 37.5 m | 76.1 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Investing cash flow | -185.3 m | -147.0 m | -109.4 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -41.5 m | 71.6 m | 5.5 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 28.2 m | 14.0 m | 14.8 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 7.0 m | 688.0 k | 120.0 k | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
27% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 6.05 – 8.13 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)6.05 – 8.13 (Mid 6.94)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 8.0% | 54 (vs peers) | 38% |
| Net margin · Quality | -1.1% | 33 (vs peers) | 23% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 1.5x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 23% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.5x | 60 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet24/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality46/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
AMG Critical Materials N.V. (AMG.AS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.7 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 18.6%; net margin -1.1%; ROE -3.6%.
The estimated value range is 6.05–8.13 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- Interest coverage: 1.5x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Netherlands · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML.ASASML Holding N.V. | 485.6 bn | 47.6 | 44.2% | 31.3% | +15.6% | +38% / +101% |
| DSFIR.ASDSM-Firmenich AG | 33.7 bn | 120.5 | 1.2% | 2.2% | +20.4% | +60% / +30% |
| AD.ASKoninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V. | 31.2 bn | 13.9 | 15.3% | 2.5% | +3.4% | −3% / +30% |
| ASM.ASASM International N.V. | 31.2 bn | 43.3 | 18.7% | 22.8% | +8.2% | +34% / +35% |
| ADYEN.ASAdyen N.V. | 28.1 bn | 26.6 | 22.3% | 40.1% | +18.9% | −33% / −17% |
| HAL.ASHAL Trust | 15.5 bn | 9.7 | 10.5% | 12.8% | +1.2% | +22% / +47% |
| EXO.ASExor N.V. | 15.0 bn | — | -10.6% | — | −100.0% | +1% / −18% |
| BESI.ASBE Semiconductor Industries N.V. | 11.2 bn | 84.9 | 28.7% | 22.3% | −2.7% | +8% / +10% |
| AKZA.ASAkzo Nobel N.V. | 10.7 bn | 17.0 | 13.8% | 6.3% | −5.2% | +12% / −11% |
| AALB.ASAalberts N.V. | 4.5 bn | 25.4 | 7.2% | 5.7% | −5.3% | +48% / +13% |
| ARCAD.ASArcadis N.V. | 4.2 bn | 20.2 | 18.3% | 4.3% | −2.4% | +24% / +2% |
| BNJ.ASBanijay Group N.V. | 3.4 bn | 13.8 | 343.8% | 5.1% | +1.6% | −11% / −8% |
| BAMNB.ASKoninklijke BAM Groep N.V. | 3.3 bn | 41.8 | 9.1% | 1.3% | +2.9% | +47% / +400% |
| BFIT.ASBasic-Fit N.V. | 2.0 bn | 138.2 | 3.6% | 1.0% | +16.9% | +7% / +16% |
| HAVAS.ASHavas N.V. | 1.8 bn | 9.6 | 10.2% | 6.5% | +1.7% | +26% / unavailable |
| CRBN.ASCorbion N.V. | 1.6 bn | 8.3 | 27.3% | 14.9% | +1.9% | +40% / +55% |
| ECMPA.ASEurocommercial Properties N.V. | 1.4 bn | 11.2 | 5.9% | 45.4% | +4.2% | −4% / +19% |
| FUR.ASFugro N.V. | 985.3 m | — | -1.5% | -1.1% | −18.8% | −0% / −49% |
| ACOMO.ASAcomo N.V. | 685.9 m | 15.2 | 10.7% | 3.3% | +7.6% | −3% / +37% |
| FAST.ASFastned B.V. | 663.0 m | — | -28.2% | -21.7% | +66.1% | +60% / +25% |
| FFARM.ASForFarmers N.V. | 479.4 m | 9.6 | 14.5% | 1.6% | +14.8% | +22% / +123% |
| BRNL.ASBrunel International N.V. | 383.2 m | 125.5 | 1.0% | 0.3% | −10.8% | −6% / −29% |
| ENVI.ASEnvipco Holding N.V. | 224.1 m | — | -12.7% | -11.9% | −20.8% | −25% / +47% |
| ALFEN.ASAlfen N.V. | 219.8 m | — | -0.1% | -0.0% | −10.7% | −4% / −78% |
| CMCOM.ASCM.com N.V. | 192.5 m | — | -22.2% | -1.5% | −5.4% | +23% / −30% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for AMG.AS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
AMG Critical Materials N.V. processes metals and critical materials, with a focus on lithium, vanadium and technologies for batteries and energy. With prices recovering in 2026 and an investment plan of tens of millions of dollars, the company could regain profitability if the price cycle is confirmed. Fiscal 2025 brought revenue of 1,708 million USD, and the adjusted EBITDA outlook for 2026 sits between 210 and 240 million USD 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Leadership position in several critical materials niches, supported by proprietary technology and an engineering division with a high backlog 1.
- Solid liquidity and no significant near-term debt maturities, providing financial flexibility 1.
- Geographic and product diversification, with most products sold in the country where they are produced, which reduces economic currency risk 1.
Weaknesses
- Segment revenue and profitability depend heavily on metal prices, and declines in 2025 strongly affected EBITDA 1.
- Many materials cannot be hedged on an exchange, leaving the company exposed to price risk over long periods 1.
- Dependence on a limited number of suppliers for some raw materials and components increases supply risk 1.
Opportunities
- A recovery in lithium and tantalum prices could accelerate profitability growth in 2026 1.
- The US chrome project and the AURA acquisition open opportunities in critical materials with limited local production 1.
- European demand for local battery supply chains could support long-term lithium contracts 1.
Risks
- Metal price volatilityhigh
The company processes metals that cannot be hedged on an exchange, and price differences between purchase and sale can reduce results 1.
- Expansion project riskhigh
Delays or cost overruns at new plants could reduce investment returns and affect the capex plan 1.
- Regulatory and environmental riskmedium
Changes in environmental policy or operating restrictions could generate significant additional costs, and trade compliance risks remain high 1.
- Supplier concentration riskmedium
Certain raw materials come from a few sources, and an interruption of supply could reduce capacity utilization 1.
- Currency risklow
Exposure to the euro, Brazilian real and pound sterling can affect financial results, although natural hedges partly reduce the effect 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the recovery in lithium and tantalum prices is sustained, profitability in the Lithium segment could rise quickly from 2026.
- The Technologies segment, with a significant adjusted EBITDA, could continue to support the group, especially if engineering orders remain at high levels 1.
- Solid liquidity and the absence of major near-term maturities could leave room to finance strategic projects.
What would break the thesis
- Price declines in 2025 showed how sensitive EBITDA is to metal cycles, and a renewed weakening could again reduce results.
- Expansion projects carry execution risks, and delays could postpone the expected benefits.
- Competition and alternative materials could limit the company's ability to pass costs on to customers.
What to watch
- Adjusted EBITDA guidance and actual results against the communicated range2026
- Progress of Bitterfeld lithium hydroxide qualification and reaching full capacitysecond half 2026
- Completion of the AMG Graphite sale to Asbury CarbonsQ2 2026
- Evolution of lithium and tantalum prices and the effect on Lithium segment EBITDAQ2 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
AMG is mainly a metals processor, transforming raw materials such as lithium, vanadium, tantalum, chrome, graphite and niobium into alloys, chemicals and specialty products. The company operates in several countries and combines processing with limited mining, in Brazil and in two graphite mines in Germany and Sri Lanka 1. In addition, AMG Engineering designs and builds vacuum furnace systems for industrial customers 1.
The organizational structure is decentralized, with each business unit maintaining its own IT platform and operating relatively independently. The company relies on long-term contracts with customers and suppliers and on price-hedging mechanisms to reduce exposure to metal volatility 1. Liquidity at year-end 2025 was 484 million USD, which the company says fully funds all approved expansion projects 1.
In 2025 AMG chose to focus on the growth segments, vanadium and lithium, while the pending sale of AMG Graphite and the closure of AMG Silicon narrow the scope of activities. These changes alter the portfolio and could change the company's risk and earnings profile in the coming years 1.
Segments
AMG Lithium
The Lithium segment achieved revenue of 163.1 million USD in 2025, but adjusted EBITDA fell to 11.9 million USD because average lithium prices were 16% lower 1. The Bitterfeld plant produces battery-grade lithium hydroxide, and customer qualification is ongoing, with full capacity expected in the second half of 2026 1.
Market context
Critical materials markets are concentrated, with few sources for many raw materials, which makes prices volatile. According to the company, most prices in 2025 decreased or stayed flat versus 2024, except antimony and tantalum 1. Demand from the battery and aerospace industries supports a longer-term outlook for lithium and chrome 1.
Early 2026 brought a price recovery for many materials, and the company expects this tailwind to support adjusted EBITDA starting in the second quarter of 2026, given the lag of pricing on earnings 1. If the recovery holds, it could support margins, though dynamics remain sensitive to global demand cycles.
Trends
- Recovery in lithium and tantalum pricestailwind
Lithium and tantalum prices began to recover in 2026, and the company expects accelerating profitability improvement in the Lithium segment in Brazil 1. The effect could be limited if the recovery does not hold.
- Demand for local battery supply chainstailwind
European investment in local battery materials production, including the memorandum with Easpring, suggests structural demand for refined lithium in Europe 1.
- Metal price volatilityheadwind
Most processed metals cannot be hedged on an exchange, and price declines in 2025 reduced segment revenue and EBITDA, exposing the company to cyclical risk 1.
- Pressure from project and financing costsmixed
Expansion projects such as the lithium hydroxide plant and US chrome production carry technological and delay risks, and interest costs remain relevant 1. The effect depends on project execution.
Competitive position
AMG says it operates in a highly competitive market, facing multinational, regional and local providers. The company competes primarily on technology, quality, availability, distribution, price and service, and competition could lead to lower pricing 1. Alternative materials and new products are also a source of pressure.
The company regards itself as a leader in several niche markets and aims to be at the forefront of technology and product development. However, management acknowledges it cannot assure that it will not be materially affected by increased competition 1.
- Multinational and regional specialty metals producers
The source does not name individual competitors, only describing multinational, regional and local providers without specific identification.
- Producers of alternative materials
Alternative materials and new products are cited as competitive sources, without company names given in the text.
- Lithium raw material suppliers
Competition in the lithium market is described generally in the report, without naming US-listed companies.
- Spent catalyst processors and recyclers
Spent catalyst processing activity is cited, but specific competitors are not identified in the source.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202524 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / AMG Critical Materials N.V. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.