olivLaw · European equity research
Aspo Oyj ASPO.HE
Finland · Nasdaq Helsinki · Vertical: Listed companies from Finland
Aspo Oyj is a Finnish group active in sea freight shipping, industrial product distribution and raw material distribution for the food industry. In fiscal 2025 total turnover was 616.3 million EUR, and part of the activity is classified as taxonomy-eligible under EU rules. The company is currently evaluating its group structure strategically, including a possible divestment of ESL Shipping.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Aspo Oyj (ASPO.HE) stock was 6.66 EUR (+1.52% on the day), with market capitalisation 217.4 m EUR, P/E 9.3 on diluted EPS of 0.72 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.85%, beta 0.43, 52-week range 5.74–8.00 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 40.2
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 6.53 – 7.08
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.23 · band width 8.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 7.04 / 6.68
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.11 / -0.09
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −3.5% | +0.4% | −3.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | −4.9% | −3.3% | −1.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | +8.8% | +4.0% | +4.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | +2.1% | +8.1% | −6.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | +2.5% | +10.7% | −8.2 pp | −2.0% |
| 3 years | +11.0% | +50.1% | −39.1 pp | +2.4% |
| 5 years | −43.4% | +43.6% | −87.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 50 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 9.1, median 21.8, max 34.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 536.4 m | 459.5 m | 469.1 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −14.3% | +2.1% |
| Net income | 1.6 m | 6.4 m | 23.5 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +287.8% | +269.4% |
| Diluted EPS | -0.01 | 0.14 | 0.72 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +414.3% |
| net % | 0.3% | 1.4% | 5.0% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 50.3 m EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 163.5 m EUR
- Total assets
- 513.5 m EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.69x
- ROE
- 13.3%
- ROA
- 4.6%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 536.4 m | 459.5 m | 469.1 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 25.9 m | 14.2 m | 32.8 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 10.9 m | 12.6 m | 11.9 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 16.6 m | 5.7 m | 25.3 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 361.0 k | 1.7 m | 2.1 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 1.6 m | 6.4 m | 23.5 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.01 | 0.14 | 0.72 | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 0.24 | 0.19 | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 30.7 m | 36.4 m | 50.3 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 73.7 m | 88.4 m | 62.3 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 59.2 m | 84.2 m | 61.5 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 210.1 m | 233.2 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 169.0 m | 174.4 m | 187.1 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 38.5 m | 67.0 m | 46.5 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 13.3 m | 39.0 m | 31.2 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 409.7 m | 512.0 m | 513.5 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 115.3 m | 97.9 m | 138.2 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 269.2 m | 323.1 m | 350.0 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 140.5 m | 188.8 m | 163.5 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | 45.5 m | 32.6 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 217.4 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
33% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 2.58 – 13.74 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E5.81 – 13.74 (Mid 8.35)23 companies used · median multiple 11.6x · quartiles 8.1x – 19.1xALMA.HE, APETIT.HE, ATRAV.HE, BIOBV.HE, CAPMAN.HE, CONSTI.HE, DIGIA.HE, ELEAV.HE, ELISA.HE, ENENTO.HE, ETTE.HE, FORTUM.HE, FSECURE.HE, GLA1V.HE, GRK.HE, HARVIA.HE, ICP1V.HE, ILKKA.HE, INVEST.HE, KALMAR.HE, KAMUX.HE, KCR.HE, KEMIRA.HE
- Dividend discount (DDM)2.58 – 3.52 (Mid 2.98)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 5.0% | 54 (vs peers) | 19% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.8x | 19 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.7x | 74 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 9.3x | 75 (vs peers) | 31% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.3% | 5 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet41/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial54/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial5/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial75/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Aspo Oyj (ASPO.HE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 469.1 m EUR in 2025; YoY growth 2.1%; net margin 5.0%; ROE 15.4%.
The estimated value range is 4.20–8.63 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 5.67 EUR, the price of 6.66 EUR leaves a potential of -14.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -17.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 1.7x
- P/E (TTM): 9.2x
What contradicts it
- Interest coverage: 2.8x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.3%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Finland · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FORTUM.HEFortum Oyj | 20.6 bn | 27.0 | 8.7% | 15.3% | −14.0% | +30% / +79% |
| ELISA.HEElisa Oyj | 5.5 bn | 16.0 | 27.0% | 15.2% | +3.0% | −9% / −17% |
| KEMIRA.HEKemira Oyj | 2.4 bn | 13.4 | 10.5% | 6.6% | −6.6% | −18% / +2% |
| KALMAR.HEKalmar Oyj | 2.4 bn | 14.8 | 24.1% | 9.4% | +1.2% | +1% / unavailable |
| KCR.HEKonecranes Oyj | 2.2 bn | 5.6 | 20.3% | 9.5% | −0.9% | −4% / +134% |
| EXEL.HEExel Composites Oyj | 1.8 bn | — | -18.5% | -5.3% | +3.6% | +171% / +80% |
| BITTI.HEBittium Oyj | 1.2 bn | 58.1 | 17.5% | 17.9% | +40.1% | +80% / +632% |
| ALMA.HEAlma Media Oyj | 1.1 bn | 21.1 | 23.0% | 16.9% | +4.6% | +8% / +55% |
| FIA1S.HEFinnair Oyj | 942.9 m | 51.2 | 2.9% | 0.6% | +1.9% | +57% / +24% |
| GRK.HEGRK Infra Oyj | 810.6 m | 18.8 | 27.8% | 4.9% | +19.7% | +56% / unavailable |
| HARVIA.HEHarvia Oyj | 762.2 m | 29.0 | 21.0% | 13.3% | +13.5% | −2% / +63% |
| ATRAV.HEAtria Oyj | 452.2 m | 11.1 | 9.8% | 2.2% | +3.3% | +13% / +57% |
| ANORA.HEAnora Group Oyj | 316.3 m | 57.5 | 1.4% | 0.8% | −4.9% | +25% / +10% |
| CAPMAN.HECapMan Oyj | 311.1 m | 23.9 | 6.8% | 20.9% | +9.4% | −5% / −17% |
| ICP1V.HEIncap Oyj | 270.2 m | 19.3 | 10.4% | 6.5% | −6.7% | +1% / +42% |
| FSECURE.HEF-Secure Oyj | 250.9 m | 11.2 | 43.4% | 15.3% | −0.4% | −15% / −20% |
| ASPO.HEAspo Oyj | 217.4 m | 9.3 | 15.4% | 5.0% | +2.1% | +1% / +8% |
| ETTE.HEEtteplan Oyj | 177.7 m | 16.8 | 8.8% | 2.9% | +0.1% | −26% / −49% |
| DIGIA.HEDigia Oyj | 133.7 m | 10.6 | 14.5% | 5.9% | +5.5% | −15% / −10% |
| ILKKA.HEIlkka Oyj | 92.3 m | 7.9 | 6.2% | 30.8% | +22.6% | −1% / +19% |
| ESENSE.HEEnersense International Oyj | 84.9 m | 84.7 | 3.1% | 0.4% | −27.7% | +27% / +24% |
| CONSTI.HEConsti Oyj | 77.2 m | 11.6 | 15.3% | 2.0% | +2.9% | −8% / −6% |
| APETIT.HEApetit Oyj | 73.8 m | 8.2 | 8.2% | 5.4% | +3.1% | −17% / −6% |
| CTH1V.HEComponenta Oyj | 67.5 m | 331.0 | 0.8% | 0.2% | −4.6% | +52% / +188% |
| KAMUX.HEKamux Oyj | 48.8 m | 10.6 | 4.2% | 0.5% | +0.8% | −38% / −77% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ASPO.HE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 3.84 Total return -40% · Per year -40% | 6.80 Total return 5% · Per year 5% | 10.25 Total return 57% · Per year 57% |
| 3 years | 3.55 Total return -40% · Per year -16% | 7.09 Total return 15% · Per year 5% | 11.76 Total return 88% · Per year 23% |
| 5 years | 3.28 Total return -41% · Per year -10% | 7.38 Total return 26% · Per year 5% | 13.48 Total return 123% · Per year 17% |
- Exit P/E± 1.77
- Net margin± 1.24
- Annual revenue growth± 1.04
- Annual dilution± 0.10
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Aspo Oyj is a Finnish group active in sea freight shipping, industrial product distribution and raw material distribution for the food industry. In fiscal 2025 total turnover was 616.3 million EUR 1, and part of the activity is classified as taxonomy-eligible under EU rules 1. The company is currently evaluating its group structure strategically, including a possible divestment of ESL Shipping 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group has a relatively new fleet, including energy-efficient vessels classified as taxonomy-aligned 1. The diversified business structure, spanning shipping and distribution, gives a varied revenue base 1.
- A significant share of capital expenditure is directed to taxonomy-aligned activities, indicating a clear investment direction 1. Human rights due diligence policies are documented and applied in shipping operations 1.
- The group has a formal risk management process, with an audit committee monitoring the effectiveness of the systems 1.
Weaknesses
- Most turnover comes from activities not eligible under the taxonomy, which limits the share of aligned activities in the total 1. Results depend heavily on volumes and prices in distribution, which are sensitive to economic cycles 1.
- Investments in new vessels and acquisitions could reduce free cash flow and weaken the balance sheet if their profitability does not materialise 1. Uncertainty about the profitability of these investments is acknowledged in the report 1.
- The report notes that operations depend on the availability of IT systems and network services, whose unavailability can disrupt business 1.
Opportunities
- Taxonomy-aligned vessels and the transition to more sustainable transport could open growth opportunities in contracts with customers seeking emission reductions 1. Developing future maritime infrastructure is a stated objective 1.
- The ongoing strategic evaluation, including a possible divestment or partial demerger, could create value for shareholders if carried out under favourable conditions 1.
- Strategic acquisitions are a stated tool for increasing earnings, if suitable opportunities are found 1.
Threats
- Geopolitical tensions and security risks in the Baltic Sea can disrupt vessel traffic and raise operating costs 1. An escalation could negatively affect commercial activities 1.
- A slow recovery of the European economy could reduce customer demand and distribution results 1. Fluctuations in sea transport prices are another risk factor 1.
- Cyber threats have increased alongside geopolitical tensions, which could affect the availability of critical systems 1.
Risks
- Sea transport demand and priceshigh
Financial results depend on demand for sea transport and on price developments, which are influenced by the overall economy 1. A further decline in economic activity could negatively affect results 1.
- Distribution volumes and pricesmedium
The volumes and prices of products sold by Telko are an important source of uncertainty for group results 1. They depend on overall economic development 1.
- Strategic evaluation of the groupmedium
The company is evaluating a possible divestment of ESL Shipping or a partial demerger, and uncertainties about timing and outcome may influence strategic decisions 1.
- Currency risksmedium
Currency fluctuations can affect results and the balance sheet, and investments in vessels financed in US dollars are exposed to this risk 1.
- Cybersecurity and ITlow
Operations depend on the availability of IT systems and network services, and geopolitical tensions have increased the risk of cyber incidents 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If taxonomy-aligned vessels and green transition investments prove profitable, the group could gain a stronger position in sustainable sea transport 1. A divestment of a valuable unit under favourable conditions could unlock value for shareholders 1.
- If the European economy recovers, demand in distribution and sea transport could rise, supporting results 1. The diversified structure could cushion shocks in each segment 1.
- Share buyback programmes and capital management policy could support investor confidence if continued 1.
What would break the thesis
- If demand for sea transport and distribution volumes remain weak, results could stay under pressure 1. Most turnover comes from activities not eligible under the taxonomy, which could limit long-term attractiveness 1.
- Investments in new vessels and acquisitions could reduce cash flow and weaken the balance sheet if profitability does not materialise 1.
- Geopolitical tensions in the Baltic Sea and cyber risks could disrupt operations and raise costs 1.
What to watch
- Outcome of the strategic evaluation and any decision on ESL Shipping or a partial demerger2026
- Development of demand and prices in Baltic Sea freight transportQ1 2026
- Volumes and margins in Telko and Leipurin distributionQ1 2026
- Pace of investment in taxonomy-aligned vessels and impact on free cash flownext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Aspo Oyj operates as a group with several business units, the most important being ESL Shipping, Telko and Leipurin 1. ESL Shipping operates vessels on the Baltic Sea, and its sea freight activities are considered taxonomy-eligible and partly taxonomy-aligned 1. Telko distributes plastics, industrial chemicals and lubricants, while Leipurin distributes raw materials to bakeries and the food industry, activities that are not considered taxonomy-eligible 1.
Most of the group's turnover comes from activities not eligible under the taxonomy, mainly distribution 1. The shipping activities, however, account for most of the capital expenditure 1.
The company has committed to investments in more sustainable vessels and acquisitions, which according to the report could reduce free cash flow under certain conditions 1. These investments are being monitored alongside the strategic review of the group structure 1.
Segments
ESL Shipping
ESL Shipping operates vessels on the Baltic Sea, including newer freight vessels, and part of its activity is aligned with the EU taxonomy for climate change mitigation 1. Its freight revenue is classified as eligible but only partly aligned, because some vessels have also carried coal 1.
Market context
Demand for sea transport and its prices depend on overall economic development, and according to the report economic growth and industrial production in Europe have recently been very weak 1. Group turnover was 616.3 million EUR in 2025, of which 159.4 million EUR came from taxonomy-eligible activities 1.
The company operates in markets around the Baltic Sea and Europe, where geopolitical tensions and maritime security risks can affect vessel traffic and costs 1. Aspo shares are listed on Nasdaq Helsinki in the Mid Cap segment 1.
Trends
- Green transition and EU taxonomymixed
Changes in environmental legislation and uncertainty over the timing of the green transition can affect the competitiveness of Aspo's businesses and of its key principals and customers 1. Energy-efficient vessels and investments in sustainable ships could strengthen the group's position in this context 1.
- Geopolitical tensions in the Baltic Seaheadwind
The war in Ukraine, rising security concerns in the Baltic Sea and tensions in the Middle East can disrupt vessel traffic, raise costs and change trade flows 1. If these tensions prolong or expand, commercial activities in the group's market areas could be negatively affected 1.
- Weak European industryheadwind
Economic growth and especially industrial production in Europe have been very weak in recent years, and a delayed recovery could affect the group's customers and financial performance 1. This directly influences volumes in distribution 1.
- Currency fluctuations and capital costsmixed
Geopolitical tensions may amplify currency fluctuations, with potential effects on results and the balance sheet 1. Investments in vessels financed in US dollars make this exposure relevant 1.
Competitive position
The analysed sources do not provide a detailed list of competitors for each business unit, so the entries below are the categories of players the report refers to in connection with the shipping and distribution markets in which the group operates 1. The group's competitiveness depends on its relationships with key suppliers and customers, whose positions are influenced by environmental regulation 1.
- Baltic Sea freight shipping operators
Direct competitors of ESL Shipping in freight transport on the Baltic Sea, identified generically through the reference to maritime market conditions 1.
- Industrial and chemical product distributors
Competitors of Telko in the distribution of plastics, chemicals and lubricants, mentioned generically in context 1.
- Food industry raw material distributors
Competitors of Leipurin in the raw material market for bakeries and the food industry, mentioned generically in context 1.
- Port and auxiliary vessel operators
Players in the segment of vessels for port operations, included in the same taxonomy-eligible activity category 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202524 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Aspo Oyj · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.