olivLaw · European equity research
Fortum Oyj FORTUM.HE
Finland · Nasdaq Helsinki · Vertical: Listed companies from Finland
Fortum Oyj is a Finnish energy producer active in the Nordic region and Poland, generating electricity from hydro, nuclear and wind sources and offering energy solutions to customers. The company aims to cut costs and raise comparable operating profit by 2030 in a context of volatile energy prices. For 2026, about 75 % of Generation's Nordic wholesale sales were hedged at 41 euro/MWh.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Fortum Oyj (FORTUM.HE) stock was 23.28 EUR (+1.00% on the day), with market capitalisation 20.8 bn EUR, P/E 17.9 on diluted EPS of 1.30 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 6.01%, beta 0.20, 52-week range 17.36–24.74 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 53.0
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 22.55 – 23.72
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.62 · band width 5.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 23.05 / 21.08
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.03 / 0.02
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −0.9% | +0.4% | −1.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | +19.5% | −3.3% | +22.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | +12.5% | +4.0% | +8.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +28.1% | +8.1% | +20.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | +17.2% | +10.7% | +6.5 pp | −2.6% |
| 3 years | +91.7% | +50.1% | +41.6 pp | +4.1% |
| 5 years | −10.3% | +43.6% | −53.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 1-quarter history (min 10.4, median 10.4, max 10.4; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | 6.7 bn | 5.8 bn | 5.0 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −13.6% | −14.0% |
| Net income | unavailable | -2.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 763.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | −34.2% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | -2.31 | 1.30 | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | unavailable | -30.8% | 20.0% | 15.3% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 2.9 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 8.6 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 16.4 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 2.20x
- ROE
- 8.6%
- ROA
- 4.5%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | 6.7 bn | 5.8 bn | 5.0 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | — | 1.7 bn | 1.3 bn | 939.0 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | — | 359.0 m | 379.0 m | 315.0 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | — | 2.0 bn ≈ | 1.7 bn ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | esef· 17 Feb 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | — | 1.6 bn | 1.4 bn | 936.0 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | — | 69.0 m | 239.0 m | 173.0 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | — | -2.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 763.0 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | — | -2.31 | 1.30 | — | esef· 25 Feb 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.91 | 1.15 | 1.40 | — | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 3.9 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.1 bn | 2.9 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | 1.3 bn | 1.1 bn | 889.0 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | 452.0 m | 420.0 m | 512.0 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 7.3 bn | 6.5 bn | 5.0 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 18.7 bn | 17.3 bn | 16.4 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | — | 1.2 bn | 959.0 m | 826.0 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 3.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.3 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 10.2 bn | 8.2 bn | 7.8 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 7.7 bn | 8.5 bn | 9.2 bn | 8.6 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | 895.7 m | 892.3 m | — | esef· 17 Feb 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 3 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 20.8 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
21% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 7.04 – 25.96 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E7.04 – 14.86 (Mid 9.49)23 companies used · median multiple 11.1x · quartiles 8.2x – 17.4xALMA.HE, APETIT.HE, ASPO.HE, ATRAV.HE, BIOBV.HE, CAPMAN.HE, CONSTI.HE, DIGIA.HE, ELEAV.HE, ELISA.HE, ENENTO.HE, ETTE.HE, FSECURE.HE, GLA1V.HE, GRK.HE, HARVIA.HE, ICP1V.HE, ILKKA.HE, INVEST.HE, KALMAR.HE, KAMUX.HE, KCR.HE, KEMIRA.HE
- Dividend discount (DDM)19.04 – 25.96 (Mid 21.97)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 15.3% | 82 (vs peers) | 30% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.2x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 27.2x | 25 (vs peers) | 50% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial82/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial25/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Fortum Oyj (FORTUM.HE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 5.0 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth -14.0%; net margin 15.3%; ROE 8.7%.
The estimated value range is 13.04–20.41 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 15.73 EUR, the price of 23.28 EUR leaves a potential of -32.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -48.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 15.3%
- Current ratio: 2.2x
What contradicts it
- P/E (TTM): 27.2x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Finland · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FORTUM.HEFortum Oyj | 20.8 bn | 27.2 | 8.7% | 15.3% | −14.0% | +32% / +81% |
| ELISA.HEElisa Oyj | 5.6 bn | 16.3 | 27.0% | 15.2% | +3.0% | −8% / −15% |
| KEMIRA.HEKemira Oyj | 2.5 bn | 13.6 | 10.5% | 6.6% | −6.6% | −17% / +4% |
| KALMAR.HEKalmar Oyj | 2.4 bn | 14.7 | 24.1% | 9.4% | +1.2% | +0% / unavailable |
| KCR.HEKonecranes Oyj | 2.2 bn | 5.6 | 20.3% | 9.5% | −0.9% | −4% / +134% |
| EXEL.HEExel Composites Oyj | 1.8 bn | — | -18.5% | -5.3% | +3.6% | +163% / +74% |
| BITTI.HEBittium Oyj | 1.2 bn | 55.8 | 17.5% | 17.9% | +40.1% | +73% / +603% |
| ALMA.HEAlma Media Oyj | 1.2 bn | 21.2 | 23.0% | 16.9% | +4.6% | +9% / +57% |
| FIA1S.HEFinnair Oyj | 927.4 m | 50.4 | 2.9% | 0.6% | +1.9% | +54% / +22% |
| GRK.HEGRK Infra Oyj | 788.5 m | 18.3 | 27.8% | 4.9% | +19.7% | +52% / unavailable |
| HARVIA.HEHarvia Oyj | 768.7 m | 29.3 | 21.0% | 13.3% | +13.5% | −1% / +64% |
| ATRAV.HEAtria Oyj | 451.7 m | 11.1 | 9.8% | 2.2% | +3.3% | +13% / +57% |
| ANORA.HEAnora Group Oyj | 317.6 m | 57.8 | 1.4% | 0.8% | −4.9% | +26% / +11% |
| CAPMAN.HECapMan Oyj | 300.2 m | 23.1 | 6.8% | 20.9% | +9.4% | −8% / −20% |
| ICP1V.HEIncap Oyj | 261.0 m | 18.7 | 10.4% | 6.5% | −6.7% | −3% / +37% |
| FSECURE.HEF-Secure Oyj | 243.7 m | 10.9 | 43.4% | 15.3% | −0.4% | −17% / −23% |
| ASPO.HEAspo Oyj | 219.4 m | 9.3 | 15.4% | 5.0% | +2.1% | +2% / +9% |
| ETTE.HEEtteplan Oyj | 173.7 m | 16.4 | 8.8% | 2.9% | +0.1% | −27% / −51% |
| DIGIA.HEDigia Oyj | 131.6 m | 10.5 | 14.5% | 5.9% | +5.5% | −16% / −12% |
| ILKKA.HEIlkka Oyj | 93.8 m | 8.1 | 6.2% | 30.8% | +22.6% | +0% / +21% |
| CONSTI.HEConsti Oyj | 77.4 m | 11.6 | 15.3% | 2.0% | +2.9% | −8% / −6% |
| APETIT.HEApetit Oyj | 75.6 m | 8.4 | 8.2% | 5.4% | +3.1% | −14% / −3% |
| ESENSE.HEEnersense International Oyj | 74.9 m | 74.7 | 3.1% | 0.4% | −27.7% | +12% / +9% |
| CTH1V.HEComponenta Oyj | 66.1 m | 324.0 | 0.8% | 0.2% | −4.6% | +49% / +182% |
| KAMUX.HEKamux Oyj | 47.4 m | 10.3 | 4.2% | 0.5% | +0.8% | −40% / −77% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for FORTUM.HE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 12.45 Total return -44% · Per year -44% | 22.12 Total return -2% · Per year -2% | 33.47 Total return 48% · Per year 48% |
| 3 years | 9.88 Total return -51% · Per year -21% | 19.96 Total return -4% · Per year -1% | 33.47 Total return 56% · Per year 16% |
| 5 years | 7.85 Total return -56% · Per year -15% | 18.01 Total return -7% · Per year -1% | 33.47 Total return 65% · Per year 11% |
- Exit P/E± 4.99
- Net margin± 3.49
- Annual revenue growth± 3.15
- Annual dilution± 0.29
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Fortum Oyj is a Finnish energy producer active in the Nordic region and Poland, generating electricity from hydro, nuclear and wind sources and offering energy solutions to customers. The company aims to cut costs and raise comparable operating profit by 2030 in a context of volatile energy prices. For 2026, about 75 % of Generation's Nordic wholesale sales were hedged at 41 euro/MWh 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Diversified generation portfolio with nuclear, hydro and wind, supporting the ability to deliver low-emission electricity.
- Fixed cost reduction programme with significant annual savings that take full effect from the start of the following year.
- Risk hedging strategy using long-term contracts and derivatives, supporting predictability of results.
Weaknesses
- Results are sensitive to wholesale electricity prices, which can fluctuate significantly with hydrological and weather conditions.
- Long-term hedging ratio is still below declared strategic targets, leaving part of output exposed to spot prices.
- Currency exposure to the Swedish krona and other currencies may affect consolidated results, as not all positions are hedged.
Opportunities
- Rising electricity demand from industry, data centres and transport could support expansion of production and services.
- Planned growth investments and possible additional investment opportunities could expand the capital base and profitability.
- Inclusion of nuclear and hydro in the EU taxonomy could ease access to sustainable finance.
Threats
- Support schemes for new renewable capacity could push prices down and reduce the profitability of existing plants.
- Geopolitical tensions and trade policies could add volatility to energy and commodity prices.
- Higher taxes, such as property taxes in Sweden or fuel taxes, could affect margins and profitability targets.
Risks
- Electricity price riskhigh
Variations in wholesale prices and production volumes can directly affect revenues and cash flows.
- Liquidity and refinancing riskmedium
Collateral requirements for derivatives can rise during volatile periods, potentially requiring additional financial resources.
- Currency and translation riskmedium
Currency fluctuations against the euro can affect consolidated results and equity when foreign subsidiaries are translated.
- Operational and safety riskhigh
Plant incidents, outages or accidents can cause high costs, production losses and third-party liability.
- Tax and regulatory riskmedium
Changes in tax or environmental legislation across several countries could create unexpected additional burdens.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the cost reduction programme and production optimisation deliver as planned, comparable operating profit could rise significantly by 2030.
- Demand for low-emission electricity could grow over the long term, supporting the value of the company's nuclear, hydro and wind capacity.
- A diversified generation portfolio and an active hedging strategy could reduce the sensitivity of results to price shocks.
What would break the thesis
- If wholesale prices stay low due to support for new renewables, the profitability of existing plants could decline.
- The still-limited long-term hedging ratio could expose results to spot market volatility in coming years.
- Higher taxes and regulatory burdens in Sweden and other countries could erode margins and profitability targets.
What to watch
- Progress of the hedged share of wholesale production on a rolling ten-year basis against the target of above 25 %2028
- Guidance on optimisation margin and delivery of fixed cost reductionsQ1 2027
- Development of capital expenditure and growth investments against the 2026-2030 plan2027
- Outcome of the arbitration over the Hanhikivi project and any financial impactnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Fortum produces and sells electricity and heat, mainly from nuclear, hydro and wind, and operates in the Nordic markets and Poland. According to the annual report for fiscal 2025, wholesale production reached 41.6 TWh in 2025, and annual wholesale capacity from hydro, nuclear and wind is about 47 TWh 1. The company is organised into several segments, including Generation and Consumer Solutions.
Activities also include construction, modernisation, maintenance and decommissioning of plants, as well as recycling and circular economy services. Fortum is developing new technologies such as hydrogen production, which are still in commercial development 1.
Revenue structure depends heavily on electricity prices and produced volumes, so results are sensitive to hydrological conditions and to power and emission allowance prices 1.
Segments
Generation
The Generation segment sells wholesale electricity from nuclear, hydro and wind plants in the Nordic countries. The optimisation margin was 9.7 euro/MWh in 2025, while guidance is 8–10 euro/MWh for 2026 and 6–8 euro/MWh for 2027 onwards 1.
Consumer Solutions
The Consumer Solutions segment provides energy services to end customers. The company reported cost savings of about 13 million euro in 2025 from the 2024 brand mergers, as part of its efficiency programme 1.
Market context
The energy market in the Nordic region and Poland is dominated by volatile prices, influenced by weather, grid maintenance, emission allowance prices and fuel costs. Electricity demand could rise significantly over the long term as industry, data centres and transport electrify 1.
Price differences between Nordic bidding areas and growing intermittent output could affect the profitability of existing plants. Policy decisions such as support schemes for new renewables may create market distortions 1.
Trends
- Electrification and rising demandtailwind
Electricity's share of total energy consumption is expected to grow significantly over the long term, if industry, transport and heating continue to electrify 1.
- EU taxonomy for nuclear and hydromixed
Inclusion of nuclear and hydro in the EU taxonomy may ease access to financing, although criteria remain open to interpretation and could be tightened again after the 2025 review 1.
- Price volatility and geopoliticsheadwind
Geopolitical tensions and trade policies could amplify volatility in energy and other commodity prices, creating uncertainty for investments 1.
- Emissions and tax regulationheadwind
Stricter emission standards, waste incineration taxes or higher heating fuel taxation could weigh on the company's financial targets 1.
Competitive position
Fortum competes in the Nordic and Polish markets with power producers, retailers and energy service providers, including state-owned and private groups. Competition puts pressure on wholesale prices and optimisation margins, especially as renewables expand 1.
In hydro and nuclear generation, the company's position depends on operating costs and plant availability, while in the end-customer segment competition is intense from suppliers with digital offers 1.
- Vattenfall
Nordic power producer active in hydro, nuclear and wind, a direct competitor in regional wholesale markets.
- Ørsted
Danish energy company focused on wind power, competing in Northern European markets.
- Statkraft
Norwegian power producer dominant in hydropower, active in Nordic and European markets.
- Enea
Polish energy group active in generation and distribution, competing in the Polish market.
News & filings
In the press
- Fortum backs Norrsken Evolve’s €62M fund to accelerate Europe’s electrificationTech.eu · 25 Sept 2026 · EN
- Fortum Seeks State Aid for Major New Nuclear Project in SwedenOil Price · 27 Aug 2026 · EN
- Путин разрешил сделки со структурами фонда ветроэнергетики «Роснано» и FortumKommersant (RU) · 04 Aug 2026 · RU
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202517 Feb 2026
- Annual report 202425 Feb 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Fortum Oyj · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.