olivLaw · European equity research
a.s.r. Nederland N.V. ASRNL.AS
Netherlands · Euronext Amsterdam · ISIN NL0011872643 · Vertical: Listed companies from Netherlands
a.s.r. Nederland is a Dutch insurer active in non-life, disability and pensions, currently completing the integration of Aegon NL. The company targets organic growth in its P&C portfolio and expansion through the Bovemij acquisition, while integration and organisational culture remain management's focus.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, a.s.r. Nederland N.V. (ASRNL.AS) stock was 78.36 EUR (+0.23% on the day), with market capitalisation 16.2 bn EUR, P/E 36.3 on diluted EPS of 2.16 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 4.13%, beta 0.59, 52-week range 56.66–78.36 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 75.9
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 71.16 – 78.18
- above the upper band · %B 1.03 · band width 9.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 73.70 / 66.90
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 1.22 / 0.86
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +7.9% | +0.4% | +7.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | +10.6% | −3.3% | +13.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | +19.3% | +4.0% | +15.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | +29.3% | +8.1% | +21.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +35.2% | +10.7% | +24.5 pp | +0.3% |
| 3 years | +118.0% | +50.1% | +67.9 pp | +2.2% |
| 5 years | +96.8% | +43.6% | +53.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 8.1, median 11.7, max 28.1; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 1.0 bn | 895.0 m | 476.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −13.8% | −46.8% |
| Diluted EPS | 5.26 | 3.92 | 2.16 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −25.5% | −44.9% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | 3.6 bn | -724.0 m | -587.0 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 2.7 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 10.1 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 142.2 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 4.8%
- ROA
- 0.3%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax income | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 696.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 275.0 m | 387.0 m | 131.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 1.0 bn | 895.0 m | 476.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 5.26 | 3.92 | 2.16 | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 2.70 | 2.98 | 3.23 | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 7.9 bn | 4.2 bn | 2.7 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 732.0 m | 676.0 m | 678.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 150.8 bn | 138.6 bn | 142.2 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 141.4 bn | 128.7 bn | 132.0 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 9.4 bn | 9.9 bn | 10.1 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 179.0 m | 211.1 m | 207.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 3.6 bn | -699.0 m | -569.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 29.0 m | 25.0 m | 18.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 3.6 bn ≈ | -724.0 m ≈ | -587.0 m ≈ | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 2.2 bn | -1.9 bn | -72.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -130.0 m | -1.1 bn | -853.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 484.0 m | 629.0 m | 669.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 16.2 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
31% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 20.96 – 59.95 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E20.96 – 54.80 (Mid 29.93)17 companies used · median multiple 13.9x · quartiles 9.7x – 25.4xAALB.AS, ACOMO.AS, AD.AS, ADYEN.AS, AKZA.AS, ARCAD.AS, ASM.AS, ASML.AS, AXS.AS, BAMNB.AS, BNJ.AS, CRBN.AS, CTAC.AS, ECMPA.AS, FFARM.AS, HAL.AS, HAVAS.AS
- Dividend discount (DDM)43.96 – 59.95 (Mid 50.73)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -123.3% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 36.3x | 36 (vs peers) | 33% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -3.6% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 27% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.1% | 59 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial59/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation20/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ASR Nederland N.V. (ASRNL.AS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 5.5%.
The estimated value range is 32.46–57.38 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 40.33 EUR, the price of 78.36 EUR leaves a potential of -48.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -94.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: -123.3%
- FCF yield: -3.6%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Netherlands · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML.ASASML Holding N.V. | 485.6 bn | 47.6 | 44.2% | 31.3% | +15.6% | +38% / +101% |
| DSFIR.ASDSM-Firmenich AG | 33.7 bn | 120.5 | 1.2% | 2.2% | +20.4% | +60% / +30% |
| AD.ASKoninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V. | 31.2 bn | 13.9 | 15.3% | 2.5% | +3.4% | −3% / +30% |
| ASM.ASASM International N.V. | 31.2 bn | 43.3 | 18.7% | 22.8% | +8.2% | +34% / +35% |
| ADYEN.ASAdyen N.V. | 28.1 bn | 26.6 | 22.3% | 40.1% | +18.9% | −33% / −17% |
| HAL.ASHAL Trust | 15.5 bn | 9.7 | 10.5% | 12.8% | +1.2% | +22% / +47% |
| EXO.ASExor N.V. | 15.0 bn | — | -10.6% | — | −100.0% | +1% / −18% |
| BESI.ASBE Semiconductor Industries N.V. | 11.2 bn | 84.9 | 28.7% | 22.3% | −2.7% | +8% / +10% |
| AKZA.ASAkzo Nobel N.V. | 10.7 bn | 17.0 | 13.8% | 6.3% | −5.2% | +12% / −11% |
| AALB.ASAalberts N.V. | 4.5 bn | 25.4 | 7.2% | 5.7% | −5.3% | +48% / +13% |
| ARCAD.ASArcadis N.V. | 4.2 bn | 20.2 | 18.3% | 4.3% | −2.4% | +24% / +2% |
| BNJ.ASBanijay Group N.V. | 3.4 bn | 13.8 | 343.8% | 5.1% | +1.6% | −11% / −8% |
| BAMNB.ASKoninklijke BAM Groep N.V. | 3.3 bn | 41.8 | 9.1% | 1.3% | +2.9% | +47% / +400% |
| BFIT.ASBasic-Fit N.V. | 2.0 bn | 138.2 | 3.6% | 1.0% | +16.9% | +7% / +16% |
| HAVAS.ASHavas N.V. | 1.8 bn | 9.6 | 10.2% | 6.5% | +1.7% | +26% / unavailable |
| CRBN.ASCorbion N.V. | 1.6 bn | 8.3 | 27.3% | 14.9% | +1.9% | +40% / +55% |
| ECMPA.ASEurocommercial Properties N.V. | 1.4 bn | 11.2 | 5.9% | 45.4% | +4.2% | −4% / +19% |
| FUR.ASFugro N.V. | 985.3 m | — | -1.5% | -1.1% | −18.8% | −0% / −49% |
| ACOMO.ASAcomo N.V. | 685.9 m | 15.2 | 10.7% | 3.3% | +7.6% | −3% / +37% |
| FAST.ASFastned B.V. | 663.0 m | — | -28.2% | -21.7% | +66.1% | +60% / +25% |
| FFARM.ASForFarmers N.V. | 479.4 m | 9.6 | 14.5% | 1.6% | +14.8% | +22% / +123% |
| BRNL.ASBrunel International N.V. | 383.2 m | 125.5 | 1.0% | 0.3% | −10.8% | −6% / −29% |
| ENVI.ASEnvipco Holding N.V. | 224.1 m | — | -12.7% | -11.9% | −20.8% | −25% / +47% |
| ALFEN.ASAlfen N.V. | 219.8 m | — | -0.1% | -0.0% | −10.7% | −4% / −78% |
| CMCOM.ASCM.com N.V. | 192.5 m | — | -22.2% | -1.5% | −5.4% | +23% / −30% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ASRNL.AS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
a.s.r. Nederland is a Dutch insurer active in non-life, disability and pensions, currently completing the integration of Aegon NL. The company targets organic growth in its P&C portfolio and expansion through the Bovemij acquisition, while integration and organisational culture remain management's focus.
SWOT
Strengths
- Market-leading position in income insurance for disability and a solid customer base in the commercial and public segments.
- Progressive dividend policy and additional capital returns, supported by a financial base that management considers robust.
- Rising employee confidence and an improving organisational culture, according to internal surveys in 2025 and early 2026.
Weaknesses
- The Aegon NL integration led to redundancies and relocations, which could affect operational continuity.
- Gross pay differences between women and men, although partly explained by structural factors, remain a point of attention.
- The customer-focus score in the culture survey stayed below the benchmark average, pointing to an area for improvement.
Opportunities
- The Bovemij acquisition could expand the P&C portfolio, particularly in mobility, once the transaction closes.
- AI use and process digitalisation could reduce costs and improve customer service.
- A greater role for absenteeism prevention and vitality programmes could strengthen the position in disability.
Threats
- Legislative changes on mandatory cover for self-employed workers could reduce demand for private products.
- Operational difficulties at public social security bodies could change policy and add pressure on the system.
- Inflation and interest rate developments could affect claims costs and product pricing, a concern management monitors closely.
Risks
- Integration riskmedium
Completing the Aegon NL integration could face delays or unforeseen costs, which could affect financial results.
- Bovemij transaction riskmedium
Closing the acquisition depends on regulatory approvals and could be postponed, which could affect growth plans.
- Absenteeism riskhigh
The rising trend in long-term absenteeism could increase claims payments in the disability segment.
- Regulatory riskmedium
Changes in the social security system or mandatory cover legislation could reshape the product market.
- Cyber and IT security risklow
The Audit & Risk Committee monitors cyber risks, and a breach could damage customer trust and operations.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If integration proceeds as planned and P&C growth materialises, the company could consolidate its leadership position in the Netherlands.
- The dominant position in disability insurance and the capital return policy could support long-term investor interest.
- Improving culture and employee engagement could reduce staff turnover and support strategy execution.
What would break the thesis
- If integration runs into difficulties, costs and management distraction could weigh on short-term results.
- Rising long-term absenteeism could compress margins in the disability segment, the main income source.
- Legislative changes on mandatory cover for self-employed workers could shrink the market open to private products.
What to watch
- Closing of the Bovemij acquisition and regulatory approvalssecond half of 2026
- Progress of the Aegon NL integration and its impact on costs2026
- Trend in absenteeism and combined ratio in the disability segmentnext annual report
- Approval of the proposed dividend of 3.41 EUR per share at the AGM20 May 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
According to the annual report for fiscal 2025, a.s.r. operates as an insurer in the Netherlands with business lines in property and casualty, disability, health and pensions. After integrating Aegon NL, the company describes its strategy as focused on profitable long-term growth and capital returns to shareholders. Total capital return in 2025 was 980 million EUR, and the proposed dividend was 3.41 EUR per share 1.
The company emphasises employee sustainability and vitality, and through the a.s.r. Vitality programme it integrates absenteeism prevention into its disability products. The report states that the absenteeism rate fell from 4.5% in 2024 to 4.2% in 2025 1.
For 2026, a.s.r. intends to strengthen its position in the commercial segment and apply AI more broadly across the value chain, including claims handling. The acquisition of Bovemij insurance activities, with a premium volume of around 400 million EUR, is expected to close in the second half of 2026, subject to regulatory approvals 1.
Segments
Disability
According to the report, a.s.r. is the leading insurer in the Dutch income insurance market, with a market share of 39.5% in 2025 1. It offers products for self-employed individuals, employees and employers, along with prevention and reintegration services.
Property and casualty (P&C)
The P&C segment is growing, and management expects annual portfolio growth of 3–5% in 2026, mainly in the commercial market 1. The Bovemij acquisition could add to this segment, particularly in mobility.
Pensions and other lines
The report describes pensions and other lines as part of the integrated portfolio after the Aegon NL acquisition, but the source provided does not give detailed figures for this segment for 2025.
Market context
The Dutch income insurance market grew slightly in size in 2025 to 4.8 billion EUR 1. The market is distributed mainly through insurance advisers, and a.s.r. holds a leading position with a 39.5% share in 2025 1.
The regulatory environment is changing, including the Mandatory Occupational Disability Insurance for self-employed bill, which would introduce mandatory public disability cover for self-employed workers. The report notes that the legislation is not expected to take effect for several years 1.
Trends
- Integration with Aegon NLmixed
The integration led to redundancies and relocations, but management describes it as an ongoing process that could raise operational efficiency. Affected employees receive support programmes 1.
- Artificial intelligence and digitalisationtailwind
The company is expanding its use of AI in claims handling and customer service, which could reduce costs and improve customer experience 1.
- Rising long-term absenteeismheadwind
The report flags a rising trend in long-term absenteeism, which could increase pressure on disability claims costs 1.
- Uncertainty in the social security systemmixed
Operational difficulties at UWV could influence policy on the social security system, and the extent and nature of change remain uncertain, creating both risks and opportunities 1.
Competitive position
The source provided does not explicitly name competitors, except that a.s.r. is the market leader in income insurance, which suggests smaller rivals exist. The company reinforces its position through the a.s.r. and Loyalis brands.
Distribution through intermediaries and direct channels, such as the new BasisAOV proposition, shows a.s.r. trying to protect its market share amid regulatory change and new distribution models 1.
- Loyalis
a.s.r. brand serving self-employed individuals, SMEs and the public sector, cited as part of its distribution positioning.
- Bovemij N.V.
Company whose insurance activities a.s.r. agreed to acquire, indicating consolidation in the Dutch market.
- Other Dutch disability insurers
Not named in the source, but the dominant market share implies smaller rivals in the income insurance segment.
- Public social security institutions
Legislative changes to mandatory cover for self-employed workers could reshape the relationship with this public sector.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202507 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / a.s.r. Nederland N.V. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.