olivLaw · European equity research
Arctic Paper S.A. ATC.WA
Poland · GPW Warszawa · ISIN PLARTPR00012 · Vertical: Listed companies from Poland
Arctic Paper is a European producer of paper and pulp, with mills in Poland and Sweden and a sales network covering European markets. Revenue of 3,549 million PLN in 2023 shows the group's scale, while its dependence on demand and raw material prices means results can vary from year to year.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Arctic Paper S.A. (ATC.WA) stock was 5.58 PLN (+1.64% on the day), with market capitalisation 386.3 m PLN, P/E 1.6 on diluted EPS of 3.57 PLN over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 0.36, 52-week range 5.45–9.45 PLN.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 40.4
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 5.47 – 5.76
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.38 · band width 5.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 6.04 / 6.82
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.13 / -0.14
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −3.0% | −1.5% | −1.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | −15.6% | −5.3% | −10.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | −12.0% | +4.7% | −16.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | −31.8% | +6.0% | −37.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | −32.7% | +8.2% | −40.9 pp | +7.1% |
| 3 years | −68.7% | +47.2% | −115.9 pp | +3.8% |
| 5 years | −38.6% | +41.8% | −80.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 2.2, median 4.2, max 6.3; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.9 bn | 3.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −27.5% |
| Net income | 631.0 m | 247.1 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −60.8% |
| Diluted EPS | 9.11 | 3.57 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −60.8% |
| net % | 12.9% | 7.0% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2023 · 31 Dec 2023
- Cash
- 500.4 m PLN
- Financial debt
- unavailable PLN
- Net debt
- unavailable PLN
- Equity
- 1.8 bn PLN
- Total assets
- 2.7 bn PLN
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 2.23x
- ROE
- 12.8%
- ROA
- 8.3%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (PLN)
Margins
Income statement · PLN
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.9 bn | 3.5 bn | esef· 28 May 2024verified |
| Cost of revenue | 3.5 bn | 2.8 bn | esef· 28 May 2024verified |
| Gross profit | 1.4 bn | 745.7 m | esef· 28 May 2024verified |
| Operating income | 843.0 m | 357.1 m | esef· 28 May 2024verified |
| Interest expense | 8.2 m | 31.2 m | esef· 28 May 2024verified |
| Pre-tax income | 927.6 m | 340.9 m | esef· 28 May 2024verified |
| Income tax | 170.8 m | 68.5 m | esef· 28 May 2024verified |
| Net income | 631.0 m | 247.1 m | esef· 28 May 2024verified |
| Diluted EPS | 9.11 | 3.57 | esef· 28 May 2024verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 0.00 | esef· 28 May 2024verified |
Balance sheet · PLN
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 481.9 m | 500.4 m | esef· 28 May 2024verified |
| Receivables | 503.4 m | 415.4 m | esef· 28 May 2024verified |
| Inventories | 601.2 m | 444.9 m | esef· 28 May 2024verified |
| Current assets | 1.9 bn | 1.4 bn | esef· 28 May 2024verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 28 May 2024verified |
| Goodwill | 8.8 m | 8.2 m | esef· 28 May 2024verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 63.9 m | 58.5 m | esef· 28 May 2024verified |
| Total assets | 3.3 bn | 2.7 bn | esef· 28 May 2024verified |
| Current liabilities | 806.9 m | 641.6 m | esef· 28 May 2024verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.2 bn | 921.4 m | esef· 28 May 2024verified |
| Equity | 2.1 bn | 1.8 bn | esef· 28 May 2024verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 69.3 m | 69.2 m | esef· 28 May 2024derived |
Cash flow · PLN
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 386.3 m PLN
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
27% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 7.0% | 64 (vs peers) | 23% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 11.4x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 23% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.2x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 1.6x | 89 (vs peers) | 38% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial64/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial89/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Arctic Paper Spółka Akcyjna (ATC.WA). Latest full fiscal year: 2023; data up to 2023-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.5 bn PLN in 2023; YoY growth -27.5%; net margin 7.0%; ROE 16.3%.
The estimated value range is 26.92–72.09 PLN per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 42.44 PLN, the price of 5.58 PLN leaves a potential of 660.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 86.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Interest coverage: 11.4x
- Current ratio: 2.2x
- P/E (TTM): 1.6x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Poland · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACP.WAAsseco Poland S.A. | 19.7 bn | 39.2 | 7.8% | 2.9% | +19.8% | +22% / +211% |
| BDX.WABudimex Spółka Akcyjna | 19.2 bn | 36.0 | 41.5% | 6.2% | +8.9% | +20% / +36% |
| BFT.WABenefit Systems Spółka Akcyjna | 18.1 bn | 130.9 | 20.8% | 7.2% | +99.9% | +74% / +221% |
| CAR.WAInter Cars Spółka Akcyjna | 15.5 bn | 22.1 | 17.0% | 3.9% | +18.0% | +94% / +87% |
| ASE.WAAsseco South Eastern Europe Spółka Akcyjna | 3.8 bn | 20.2 | 18.1% | 12.0% | +36.5% | +9% / +55% |
| 1AT.WAAtal Spółka Akcyjna | 2.3 bn | 6.4 | 29.8% | 22.2% | −1.3% | +7% / +8% |
| ATT.WAGrupa Azoty Spółka Akcyjna | 1.6 bn | — | -37.9% | -20.8% | −45.1% | −16% / −27% |
| ARH.WAArchicom Spółka Akcyjna | 1.3 bn | 11.9 | 15.9% | 22.1% | −21.6% | +11% / +85% |
| ACT.WAAction S.A. | 1.1 bn | 28.7 | 8.3% | 1.5% | +6.1% | +80% / +186% |
| BRS.WABoryszew Spółka Akcyjna | 887.2 m | 8.3 | 6.3% | 1.6% | +8.4% | −24% / −27% |
| AGO.WAAgora Spółka Akcyjna | 585.6 m | — | -14.2% | -9.2% | +15.2% | +36% / +17% |
| AMB.WAAmbra S.A. | 463.4 m | 7.5 | 16.4% | 7.0% | +12.9% | +4% / −33% |
| ATC.WAArctic Paper Spółka Akcyjna | 386.3 m | 1.6 | 16.3% | 7.0% | −27.5% | −33% / −73% |
| ATG.WA"atm Grupa Spółka Akcyjna" | 301.0 m | 11.1 | 8.9% | 11.6% | −22.0% | −10% / +3% |
| ART.WAArtifex Mundi S.A. | 231.4 m | 17.8 | 35.7% | 33.3% | +51.9% | +49% / +14% |
| APN.WAAPLISENS Spółka Akcyjna | 196.8 m | 9.6 | 11.4% | 13.8% | +21.8% | +0% / −20% |
| BMC.WABumech Spółka Akcyjna | 159.1 m | — | -3.4% | -3.9% | −40.0% | −35% / −48% |
| ALI.WAALTUS Spolka Akcyjna | 158.1 m | 17.3 | 7.9% | 16.9% | +30.3% | +38% / +52% |
| BBT.WABoomBit Spółka Akcyjna | 72.4 m | 4.6 | 20.7% | 6.4% | −16.5% | −18% / −56% |
| BBD.WABbi Development S.A. | 51.9 m | 1.0 | 36.0% | 208.3% | +50.2% | −4% / +5% |
| ALG.WAAll in! Games Spółka Akcyjna | 38.1 m | — | — | -156.9% | −72.2% | −30% / −58% |
| BMX.WABioMaxima Spółka Akcyjna | 37.4 m | 63.8 | 1.2% | 1.3% | −67.5% | −29% / −44% |
| 06N.WAMagna Polonia Spółka Akcyjna | 32.3 m | 0.5 | 115.4% | 964.7% | +13.0% | −26% / −40% |
| BCM.WABETACOM Spółka Akcyjna | 26.4 m | 17.4 | 8.0% | 0.9% | +21.3% | +6% / +3% |
| AWM.WAAirway Medix Spółka Akcyjna | 14.3 m | — | -25.8% | -117,400.0% | −97.7% | −23% / −43% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ATC.WA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (PLN)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 2.98 Total return -47% · Per year -47% | 5.30 Total return -5% · Per year -5% | 8.02 Total return 44% · Per year 44% |
| 3 years | 2.37 Total return -58% · Per year -25% | 4.78 Total return -14% · Per year -5% | 8.02 Total return 44% · Per year 13% |
| 5 years | 1.88 Total return -66% · Per year -20% | 4.32 Total return -23% · Per year -5% | 8.02 Total return 44% · Per year 8% |
- Exit P/E± 1.20
- Net margin± 0.84
- Annual revenue growth± 0.76
- Annual dilution± 0.07
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Arctic Paper is a European producer of paper and pulp, with mills in Poland and Sweden and a sales network covering European markets. Revenue of 3,549 million PLN in 2023 shows the group's scale, while its dependence on demand and raw material prices means results can vary from year to year.
SWOT
Strengths
- Vertical integration with pulp and energy, an extensive European sales network and mills in two countries are strengths documented in the report 1.
- The shareholder structure gives strategic continuity, with a majority shareholder holding a dominant stake 1.
- The portfolio spans book paper and high-quality graphic paper, with customers among printers, publishers and the advertising industry 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Lower selling priceshigh
Rising competition could reduce selling prices and directly affect group revenue and margins 1.
- Raw material and energy costshigh
Limited access to raw materials and energy volatility could raise production costs despite hedging 1.
- Currency riskmedium
Assets and liabilities in SEK, EUR and USD expose the group to exchange losses, and the effect of a 5% move is material in the analysis 1.
- Interest rate riskmedium
Floating-rate loans could raise financial costs if rates rise, although part is fixed through swaps 1.
- Tax uncertaintylow
Different interpretations of tax law and frequent rule changes could lead to adjustments in reported amounts 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand for high-quality and book paper stabilises, existing assets could generate better revenue, and integration with pulp could support margins 1.
- The favourable revaluation of some assets, such as those at Grycksbo, suggests recent operating performance could continue 1.
- The wide European sales network gives a base to gain market share if competitors withdraw 1.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Trend in selling prices for book and graphic paper2024
- Energy and pulp costs in Sweden2024
- Effect of SEK and EUR exchange rates on results2024
- Level of floating-rate debt and swap coveragenext annual report
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The Arctic Paper group produces paper and pulp, including high-volume book paper, high-quality graphic paper and a range of uncoated and coated grades for printers, distributors, book and magazine publishers and the advertising industry 1. The parent is Arctic Paper S.A., seated in Kostrzyn nad Odrą (Poland) with a branch in Göteborg, and the group had over 1,500 employees at 31 December 2023 1. Secondary activities include packaging production, electricity and heat production and distribution, and logistics, all subordinate to paper and pulp production 1.
Ownership is concentrated: Nemus Holding AB, indirectly held by Thomas Onstad, controlled 59.15% of the capital at 31 December 2023, and the total stake of the same shareholder reached 68.13% 1. The group also consolidates its controlling stake in Rottneros AB, listed on NASDAQ Stockholm, which holds pulp mills in Sweden 1.
Mills are located in Poland (Kostrzyn) and Sweden (Munkedals, Grycksbo), and pulp mills are in Sweden through the Rottneros subsidiaries 1. Commercial reach rests on 13 sales offices providing access to all European markets, including Central and Eastern Europe 1.
Segments
Paper
The core segment covers high-volume book paper and a broad range of high-quality graphic paper sold to printers and publishers 1. Production takes place at the mills in Poland and Sweden, with grades ranging from uncoated to coated paper 1.
Pulp
Pulp is produced through the Rottneros subsidiaries in Sweden, where the group controls pulp mills 1. The activity is integrated with the paper mills, and pulp price exposure is hedged with derivatives according to the financial notes 1.
Packaging and energy
Secondary activities include packaging production, mainly for the food industry, and electricity and heat production and distribution, all linked to core operations 1.
Market context
The European book and graphic paper market is characterised by mature demand and significant competition from integrated producers 1. The company serves all European markets through its sales offices, which gives it access to customers across several countries 1.
Selling prices are exposed to growing competition, and raw material and energy costs can narrow margins, as the risk description in the report states 1. Currency volatility, especially in SEK and EUR, affects results, and sensitivity to a 5% move is analysed separately 1.
Trends
- Strong demand at Grycksbo milltailwind
The report cites high demand for paper and good results at the Grycksbo mill, which led to a reassessment of impairment, with part of the write-down reversed at 31 December 2023 1.
- Currency volatilitymixed
Assets and liabilities in foreign currencies could generate significant gains or losses on exchange rate moves, and the company analyses the impact of a 5% change 1.
- Energy and raw material costsheadwind
The group is exposed to rising raw material prices due to limited supply access, and uses energy derivatives to limit the effect on results 1.
- Financing cost and floating-rate debtheadwind
Part of the credit carries a variable rate, and a rise in interest rates would reduce pre-tax profit, while part of the borrowing is covered by interest rate swaps 1.
Competitive position
The company competes in book and graphic paper markets where price pressure grows as the number of suppliers increases 1. The report does not list competitors in detail but highlights the risk of lower selling prices from competition 1.
The commercial edge comes from wide European market coverage through the sales offices and from vertical integration with pulp, which reduces dependence on external suppliers 1.
- European book and graphic paper producers
The report does not name competitors; market producers exerting pressure on selling prices are referred to only in general terms 1.
- Integrated pulp and paper producers
Competition also comes from producers that control their own pulp, which can give them more stable costs 1.
- Food packaging producers
In packaging, competition comes from specialised suppliers not identified in the source 1.
- Scandinavian energy and pulp suppliers
Costs and availability of energy and pulp in the region influence the group's competitive position 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202328 May 2024
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2023-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Arctic Paper S.A. · 31 Dec 2023
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.