olivLaw · European equity research
BPER Banca S.p.A. BPE.MI
Italy · Euronext Milan · ISIN IT0000066123 · Vertical: Listed companies from Italy
BPER Banca is a large Italian banking group with retail, corporate and funding activities, whose subsidiaries operate in leasing, factoring and consumer credit. In 2025 the group maintains a solid capital profile, and net profit for 2025 is expected slightly above the 2024 level, in a macro context marked by uncertain trade policies.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, BPER Banca S.p.A. (BPE.MI) stock was 13.27 EUR (−2.77% on the day), with beta 1.25, 52-week range 10.05–14.83 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 47.8
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 12.71 – 13.73
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.55 · band width 7.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 13.77 / 12.92
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.14 / -0.21
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −5.4% | +0.4% | −5.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | −9.9% | −3.3% | −6.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | +4.5% | +4.0% | +0.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | +14.4% | +8.1% | +6.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | +28.1% | +10.7% | +17.4 pp | −5.5% |
| 3 years | +315.5% | +50.1% | +265.4 pp | +8.9% |
| 5 years | +586.4% | +43.6% | +542.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
EPS unavailable in the issuer's structured filings (e.g. a partnership reports per unit, not per share).
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −7.7% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- 7.9 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- unavailable EUR
- Total assets
- 140.6 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 1.0%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Income statement · EUR
Balance sheet · EUR
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 0 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 0.0% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
0% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · input data missing
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
no valuation method could be computed
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 0 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 0.0% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
BPER BANCA S.P.A. (BPE.MI). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Financial indicators are unavailable.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 0 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 0.0% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Italy · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLG.MIDe' Longhi S.p.a. | 6.8 bn | 21.5 | 15.4% | 8.4% | +8.7% | +24% / +60% |
| ACE.MIAcea S.p.a. | 4.6 bn | 9.6 | 18.2% | 16.6% | +0.2% | −4% / +73% |
| DIA.MIDiasorin S.p.a. | 4.3 bn | 28.3 | 9.2% | 13.0% | +0.8% | +31% / −7% |
| CRL.MICarel Industries S.p.a. | 2.9 bn | 39.5 | 16.1% | 11.7% | +8.7% | +3% / +10% |
| AMP.MIAmplifon S.p.a. | 2.7 bn | 29.9 | 8.5% | 3.8% | −0.6% | −9% / −58% |
| ELN.MIEl.en. - S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 30.3 | 10.9% | 7.3% | +4.2% | +26% / +73% |
| CMB.MICembre S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 27.0 | 20.6% | 18.9% | +6.7% | +11% / +108% |
| COM.MIComer Industries S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 18.6 | 12.8% | 7.1% | −23.0% | +8% / +64% |
| DNR.MIIndustrie De Nora S.p.a. | 1.1 bn | 13.4 | 8.6% | 9.4% | +1.4% | −22% / −62% |
| ARN.MIAlerion Clean Power S.p.a. In Forma Abbreviata Alerion S.p.a. | 969.2 m | 10.4 | 23.5% | 41.0% | +1.8% | −5% / −23% |
| AVIO.MIAvio S.p.a. | 883.6 m | 86.8 | 2.1% | 1.8% | +21.5% | +18% / +291% |
| CIR.MICir S.p.a. - Compagnie Industriali Riunite | 783.3 m | 6.0 | 17.1% | 7.3% | +1.6% | +4% / +72% |
| ASC.MIAscopiave S.p.a. | 646.3 m | 18.0 | 4.2% | 17.5% | +13.4% | −8% / +33% |
| AC5.MIAcinque S.p.a. | 412.6 m | 19.6 | 4.1% | 3.6% | +0.2% | −6% / +8% |
| BAN.MIBasic Net S.p.a. | 348.0 m | — | -4.9% | -3.5% | +0.4% | −30% / +5% |
| ADB.MIAeroporto Guglielmo Marconi Di Bologna S.p.a. | 324.7 m | 13.1 | 11.1% | 13.7% | +9.2% | −2% / +12% |
| CAI.MICairo Communication S.p.a. | 289.2 m | 6.4 | 8.1% | 4.4% | −1.3% | −22% / +28% |
| ECNL.MIAquafil S.p.a. | 129.6 m | — | -3.2% | -0.9% | −3.9% | −1% / −52% |
| BEC.MIB&C Speakers S.p.a. | 118.7 m | 11.7 | 18.5% | 10.2% | −1.3% | −26% / −32% |
| ABT.MIAbitare In S.p.a. | 76.0 m | 276.0 | 0.4% | 0.4% | +39.8% | −6% / −47% |
| ELC.MIElica S.p.a. | 64.3 m | — | -7.8% | -2.2% | +1.9% | −34% / −48% |
| DEX.MIDexelance S.p.a. | 50.7 m | 2.8 | 11.0% | 5.4% | +12.6% | −63% / −78% |
| CLE.MIClass Editori S.p.a. | 35.1 m | — | -29.2% | -3.8% | −0.7% | −9% / +106% |
| CLF.MICaleffi - S.p.a. | 11.6 m | 5.2 | 10.9% | 3.8% | −2.5% | −4% / −10% |
| AEF.MIAeffe S.p.a. | 10.1 m | 0.5 | 21.9% | 7.7% | −21.3% | −59% / −86% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for BPE.MI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
BPER Banca is a large Italian banking group with retail, corporate and funding activities, whose subsidiaries operate in leasing, factoring and consumer credit. In 2025 the group maintains a solid capital profile, and net profit for 2025 is expected slightly above the 2024 level, in a macro context marked by uncertain trade policies 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group has a solid capital position, investment grade ratings from several agencies and a diversified network of banks and specialised companies.
- Recent integrations have strengthened the territorial franchise, and the parent-subsidiary structure allows centralised coordination of risk and funding.
- Asset quality and liquidity and funding positions are reported as robust by rating agencies.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on the Italian market exposes the group to the national economic cycle and tax policies.
- The complexity of the group structure, with many subsidiaries, can raise integration and control costs.
- Ongoing tax disputes, for which the group has set aside provisions, could affect results if the situation worsens.
Opportunities
- Implementation of the PNRR could generate additional corporate credit demand and investment financing.
- Expansion through exchange offers on other banks could add synergies and market share if transactions are completed.
- Redirection of exports toward emerging markets can support the group's corporate clients.
Threats
- US protectionist policies could affect exports and supply chains of the group's clients.
- Lower reference rates could compress banks' interest margins.
- Geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty can affect credit demand and portfolio quality.
Risks
- Credit riskhigh
Deterioration of the economy or of industrial sectors could increase credit losses and the need for additional provisions.
- Interest rate riskmedium
Changes in ECB rates could affect net interest income and the value of the securities portfolio.
- Tax riskmedium
Tax disputes related to IRAP and other taxes can generate additional costs if the group loses in court.
- Integration riskmedium
Integrating new banks, including in case of an exchange offer, may face operational and organisational culture difficulties.
- Reputational risklow
Operational or compliance incidents can affect client and investor confidence, especially during periods of consolidation.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the Italian economy sustains its growth supported by the PNRR, the group could benefit from higher credit volumes and a declining cost of risk.
- Investment grade ratings and a solid capital profile can support access to funding and strategic flexibility.
- If integrations are executed efficiently, cost synergies could improve the group's operating efficiency.
What would break the thesis
- If rates fall quickly, interest margins could be compressed, affecting the bank's main income.
- A recession in Germany or a trade crisis could affect industrial clients and raise provisions.
- Tax disputes and group complexity could generate unexpected costs if they extend to future years.
What to watch
- Quarterly results and the evolution of net profit against the 2024 level2025
- Evolution of ratings from S&P, Moody's and DBRS Morningstar2025
- Completion or failure of the exchange offer on Banca Popolare di Sondrio2025
- Evolution of cost of risk and tax disputes in the next annual report2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The BPER Banca group consists of the parent BPER Banca S.p.A. and a set of controlled banks and companies, including Banca Cesare Ponti, BiBanca, Finitalia, BPER Factor, Sardaleasing and Banco di Sardegna 1. According to the 2024 annual report, intragroup relations include funding lines and treasury transactions of hundreds of millions or billions of euros, exempt from related-party transaction rules 1. The only listed company in the group is BPER Banca 1.
The legal structure of the group is organised on a model of direction and coordination by the parent company, which sets strategy, risk policies and the internal control system for all banks and subsidiaries 1. The parent's board approves the Risk Appetite Framework, and each subsidiary adapts these rules to its own business 1.
The group also reports under CSRD requirements, including controlled entities in its sustainability perimeter, and its value chain includes partners such as Alba Leasing and Gardant Bridge Servicing 1.
Segments
Intragroup funding and treasury
Most operations with controlled entities concentrate on treasury and funding lines to the leasing, factoring and consumer credit subsidiaries, showing the parent bank's role as the group's funding centre 1.
Regional and retail banking
Banco di Sardegna and other group banks provide a territorial retail network, and the group reports a consolidated diversification of its franchise in Italy resulting from recent integrations 1.
Leasing and factoring
Sardaleasing, BPER Factor, Finitalia and Alba Leasing cover equipment finance, trade receivables and consumer credit, complementing the group's banking offer 1.
Market context
The Italian banking market is shaped by a macro cycle of moderate growth, with Italy's GDP at +0.7% in 2024 and the IMF forecasting stable growth in 2025, partly supported by the implementation of the PNRR 1. Banks operate in a falling-rate environment after successive ECB cuts in 2024 and 2025 1.
External risks remain US protectionist policies, which could affect European exports and supply chains, as well as geopolitical tensions, influencing credit demand and asset quality 1.
Trends
- ECB rate cutsmixed
A lower ECB deposit rate of 2.50 percent could compress interest margins, but could also support credit demand and lower the cost of risk if the economy keeps its pace 1.
- Consolidation in the Italian banking systemtailwind
Recent integrations have strengthened the group's franchise in Italy, and exchange offers on other banks such as Banca Popolare di Sondrio show an expansion intent that could increase synergies if completed 1.
- US trade policiesheadwind
If new US tariffs expand, Italian exports could be affected, which could raise credit risk in industrial sectors 1.
- PNRR and investmenttailwind
Implementation of the PNRR can accelerate non-residential investment and financing demand, supporting corporate credit volumes at the group's banks 1.
Competitive position
In the Italian market BPER competes with other large banking groups that have recently consolidated, mainly through acquisitions and exchange offers. Ratings from international agencies place the bank in investment grade, which may give it an advantage in accessing funding 1.
Competitive pressure also comes from digital banks and regional banks, and the group's position depends on its ability to maintain operating efficiency and a low cost of risk 1.
- UniCredit
Large Italian banking group competing with BPER in corporate and retail segments in Italy.
- Intesa Sanpaolo
Largest Italian banking group, active in the same retail and corporate segments.
- Banca Popolare di Sondrio
Italian bank targeted by the exchange offer launched by BPER, a possible regional competitor.
- Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena
Italian banking group with national presence, competing in corporate financing.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2024-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / BPER Banca S.p.A. · 31 Dec 2024
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.