olivLaw · European equity research
bpost NV BPOST.BR
Belgium · Euronext Brussels · ISIN BE0974268972 · Vertical: Listed companies from Belgium
bpost NV is the Belgian postal and parcel operator and the parent of bpostgroup, with activities in Belgium, North America and Eurasia. The company operates under a universal service mandate and a management contract with the Belgian State that runs to the end of 2026, which frames its financial model. The framework matters now because the company still has to manage litigation and compliance obligations from the recent crisis, which could bring additional financial effects if the uncertainties are not resolved.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, bpost NV (BPOST.BR) stock was 1.15 EUR (+0.52% on the day), with market capitalisation 229.8 m EUR, P/E 3.5 on diluted EPS of 0.33 EUR over the last 12 months, beta 0.77, 52-week range 1.06–2.34 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 56.7
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 1.05 – 1.16
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.98 · band width 9.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 1.16 / 1.63
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.01 / -0.03
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +2.5% | +0.4% | +2.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | −24.3% | −3.3% | −21.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | −30.8% | +4.0% | −34.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −43.6% | +8.1% | −51.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | −36.4% | +10.7% | −47.1 pp | +8.1% |
| 3 years | −77.1% | +50.1% | −127.2 pp | −4.6% |
| 5 years | −85.5% | +43.6% | −129.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 4.1, median 9.1, max 14.1; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.4 bn | 4.3 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −2.6% |
| Net income | 232.5 m | 65.7 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −71.7% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.16 | 0.33 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −71.6% |
| net % | 5.3% | 1.5% |
| Free cash flow | 276.3 m | 235.4 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2023 · 31 Dec 2023
- Cash
- 870.6 m EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 1.0 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 4.1 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 6.3%
- ROA
- 1.6%
- FCF margin
- 5.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.4 bn | 4.3 bn | esef· 26 Mar 2024verified |
| Operating income | 263.3 m | 160.8 m | esef· 26 Mar 2024verified |
| Interest expense | 49.3 m | 74.8 m | esef· 26 Mar 2024verified |
| Pre-tax income | 292.5 m | 119.2 m | esef· 26 Mar 2024verified |
| Income tax | 60.8 m | 54.5 m | esef· 26 Mar 2024verified |
| Net income | 232.5 m | 65.7 m | esef· 26 Mar 2024verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.16 | 0.33 | esef· 26 Mar 2024verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.1 bn | 870.6 m | esef· 26 Mar 2024verified |
| Receivables | 941.3 m | 969.5 m | esef· 26 Mar 2024verified |
| Inventories | 24.5 m | 25.4 m | esef· 26 Mar 2024verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | esef· 26 Mar 2024verified |
| Total assets | 4.4 bn | 4.1 bn | esef· 26 Mar 2024verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 26 Mar 2024verified |
| Total liabilities | 3.3 bn | 3.1 bn | esef· 26 Mar 2024verified |
| Equity | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | esef· 26 Mar 2024verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 200.4 m | 199.1 m | esef· 26 Mar 2024derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 422.4 m | 376.2 m | esef· 26 Mar 2024verified |
| Capex | 146.1 m | 140.8 m | esef· 26 Mar 2024verified |
| Free cash flow | 276.3 m ≈ | 235.4 m ≈ | esef· 26 Mar 2024derived |
| Investing cash flow | -19.2 m | -152.4 m | esef· 26 Mar 2024verified |
| Financing cash flow | -262.1 m | -428.7 m | esef· 26 Mar 2024verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 229.8 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
38% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 3.64 – 7.80 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E3.64 – 7.80 (Mid 5.08)24 companies used · median multiple 15.4x · quartiles 11.0x – 23.6xACKB.BR, AGS.BR, AZE.BR, BANI.BR, BAR.BR, BEKB.BR, BELYS.BR, CAMB.BR, CFEB.BR, COLR.BR, DECB.BR, DEME.BR, DIE.BR, ECONB.BR, ELI.BR, EVS.BR, FAGR.BR, FLOB.BR, FOU.BR, IBAB.BR, JEN.BR, KIN.BR, MELE.BR, MOUR.BR
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 1.5% | 28 (vs peers) | 17% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 358.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.1x | 10 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 3.5x | 96 (vs peers) | 28% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 102.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 22% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial10/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality64/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation98/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
BPOST (BPOST.BR). Latest full fiscal year: 2023; data up to 2023-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.3 bn EUR in 2023; YoY growth -2.6%; net margin 1.5%; ROE 6.3%.
The estimated value range is 3.64–7.80 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 5.08 EUR, the price of 1.15 EUR leaves a potential of 339.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 77.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 358.3%
- P/E (TTM): 3.5x
- FCF yield: 102.5%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Net margin: 1.5%
- Interest coverage: 2.1x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Belgium · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELI.BRElia Group | 11.9 bn | 23.3 | 9.6% | 13.6% | −2.0% | +28% / +34% |
| LOTB.BRLotus Bakeries | 11.4 bn | 66.4 | 20.9% | 12.7% | +10.0% | +82% / +76% |
| GBLB.BRGroupe Bruxelles Lambert - Groep Brussel Lambert | 10.6 bn | 82.4 | 0.8% | 2.1% | +1.0% | +6% / +9% |
| DIE.BRD'ieteren Group | 9.7 bn | 23.2 | — | 5.3% | −1.5% | +22% / +16% |
| ACKB.BRAckermans & Van Haaren | 8.8 bn | 22.2 | 8.4% | 7.6% | +18.6% | +22% / +77% |
| COLR.BRColruyt Group | 4.4 bn | 14.6 | 9.4% | 2.9% | +3.1% | +12% / −6% |
| DEME.BRDeme Group | 4.2 bn | 12.2 | 15.5% | 8.3% | +1.3% | +21% / +72% |
| AZE.BRAzelis Group | 2.9 bn | 16.1 | 6.6% | 4.3% | +1.5% | +29% / −42% |
| MELE.BRMelexis | 2.1 bn | 12.4 | 30.7% | 18.4% | −3.3% | −1% / −38% |
| BEKB.BRNV Bekaert SA | 2.1 bn | 30.7 | 3.1% | 1.8% | −6.4% | +10% / −5% |
| FAGR.BRFagron | 1.8 bn | 22.2 | 16.7% | 9.2% | +14.3% | +15% / +40% |
| KIN.BRKinepolis Group | 1.4 bn | 33.9 | 19.3% | 7.0% | −4.5% | +62% / +11% |
| JEN.BRJensen Group | 706.9 m | 17.2 | 15.1% | 9.1% | +13.3% | +28% / +111% |
| BAR.BRBarco | 563.5 m | 9.1 | 7.9% | 6.7% | −9.9% | −48% / −59% |
| IBAB.BRIon Beam Applications | 487.2 m | 39.5 | 10.7% | 2.1% | +24.5% | +48% / +52% |
| DECB.BRDeceuninck | 341.3 m | 24.6 | 4.3% | 1.7% | −4.5% | +8% / +8% |
| CAMB.BRCampine | 272.3 m | 12.2 | 28.6% | 6.1% | +13.4% | −12% / +161% |
| CFEB.BRAannemingsmaatschappij Cfe | 266.8 m | 11.1 | 9.9% | 2.0% | −5.3% | +22% / +48% |
| MOUR.BRMoury Construct | 261.2 m | 10.7 | 21.3% | 13.1% | −4.0% | +11% / +76% |
| EVS.BREvs Broadcast Equipment | 245.9 m | 6.0 | 20.8% | 21.7% | +14.3% | −49% / −36% |
| BPOST.BRBpost | 229.8 m | 3.5 | 6.3% | 1.5% | −2.6% | −39% / −75% |
| ECONB.BREconocom Group | 210.7 m | 40.5 | 1.2% | 0.2% | +4.3% | −1% / −36% |
| IMMO.BRImmobel | 172.2 m | — | -7.4% | -25.2% | −32.8% | −24% / −36% |
| MONNI.BRKeyware Technologies | 171.0 m | 162.0 | 3.5% | 4.5% | −5.9% | −5% / −17% |
| HYSG.BRHybrid Software Group PLC | 121.3 m | — | -2.5% | -5.5% | +7.2% | −4% / +13% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for BPOST.BR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 0.63 Total return -45% · Per year -45% | 1.12 Total return -3% · Per year -3% | 1.70 Total return 47% · Per year 47% |
| 3 years | 0.53 Total return -54% · Per year -23% | 1.07 Total return -8% · Per year -3% | 1.78 Total return 54% · Per year 16% |
| 5 years | 0.44 Total return -62% · Per year -17% | 1.01 Total return -12% · Per year -3% | 1.87 Total return 62% · Per year 10% |
- Exit P/E± 0.27
- Net margin± 0.19
- Annual revenue growth± 0.16
- Annual dilution± 0.02
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
bpost NV is the Belgian postal and parcel operator and the parent of bpostgroup, with activities in Belgium, North America and Eurasia. The company operates under a universal service mandate and a management contract with the Belgian State that runs to the end of 2026, which frames its financial model. The framework matters now because the company still has to manage litigation and compliance obligations from the recent crisis, which could bring additional financial effects if the uncertainties are not resolved.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has an extensive post office network and a consolidated position in universal service in Belgium.
- The universal service mandate and the management contract provide a stable operating framework over the medium term.
- The stable shareholding of the State and FPIM supports the continuity of the company's strategy.
Weaknesses
- The company still carries compliance obligations and litigation linked to the recent crisis, which are not yet closed.
- Frequent changes in the executive team could slow the execution of the transformation.
- Third-party management and supply chain due diligence are still being developed.
Opportunities
- Growth in cross-border deliveries could support the development of the e-logistics divisions.
- The banking partnership through the post office network could generate revenue from financial services.
- Consolidating purchasing at group level could reduce costs and improve efficiency.
Threats
- Price regulation may limit the company's ability to adjust tariffs to costs.
- A decline in traditional mail could reduce revenue from classic postal services.
- State aid investigations or public tender disputes could lead to sanctions.
Risks
- Compliance and state aidhigh
The company could face new state aid allegations or investigations linked to services of general economic interest.
- The recent crisishigh
Litigation and compliance issues from the recent crisis are not yet closed, and the final financial impact could exceed the provision recorded.
- Price regulationmedium
The maximum price mechanism and BIPT review may prevent tariff adjustments needed to cover universal service costs.
- Cost of universal servicemedium
The obligation to provide universal service can create a financial burden if full compensation of the net cost is not obtained.
- Third-party and sustainability riskslow
Third-party management systems could have compliance gaps that need correcting before new European due diligence rules apply.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If parcel volumes and e-commerce keep growing, the logistics divisions could generate more stable revenue.
- The universal service mandate and the State contract could provide a predictable revenue base over the medium term.
- The banking partnership could open new revenue sources in financial services through the post office network.
What would break the thesis
- If litigation from the recent crisis ends with obligations above the provision, results could be affected.
- A decline in traditional mail could reduce revenue if parcel growth does not offset it.
- Strict price regulation could limit the company's ability to protect its margins.
What to watch
- Outcome of litigation and investigations linked to the recent crisis2024
- Decision on the press concession and the new support regime for newspapers2024
- BIPT assessment of the maximum price formula for universal services2024
- Development of cross-border parcel volumes and e-Logistics activitynext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
bpost NV is the parent company of bpostgroup and provides postal, parcel and logistics services. The company is listed on Euronext Brussels, with 200.000.944 shares outstanding at 31 December 2023 1. The Belgian State and FPIM together hold 51,04% of the shares 1.
The universal service activity is governed by a management contract with the Belgian State, and the seventh contract covers the period up to 31 December 2026 1. This contract regulates the provision of services of general economic interest, including the retail network and pension payments.
In 2023 the company appointed a new group CEO and expanded its executive team, including a new Chief Commercial Officer role that was still vacant when the report was prepared 1. These changes show an effort to strengthen leadership during the transformation.
Segments
Post and parcels in Belgium
The Belgian division provides universal postal and parcel services and runs the post office network, including acting as agent for BNP Paribas Fortis for banking and insurance services from January 2024 1.
e-Logistics and Crossborder
The international e-logistics and cross-border parcel activities are led by dedicated executives for Europe, Eurasia and North America 1.
Market context
The Belgian postal market is regulated, and universal service tariffs are subject to a maximum price formula and prior review by BIPT 1. The European framework on cross-border parcel delivery increases price transparency and regulatory oversight of providers 1.
Growth in European e-commerce is a key driver of parcel demand, and the company competes in this segment through its logistics and delivery activities 1.
Trends
- Regulated postal pricingheadwind
The maximum price formula and BIPT review could limit tariff increases for universal services, which could reduce commercial flexibility.
- Growth in e-commercetailwind
If cross-border parcel volumes keep growing, demand for e-logistics services could support revenue in the international divisions.
- Decline in mail volumesheadwind
A fall in traditional mail could reduce postal service revenue, especially if parcel growth does not offset it.
- Financial services through the networkmixed
The partnership with BNP Paribas Fortis extends the role of the post office network into financial services, which could diversify revenue sources.
Competitive position
The parcel delivery market in Europe and North America is competitive, and the company competes with logistics and courier operators that have access to broader commercial networks. Competitive pressure is heightened by dominance rules that limit bpost's pricing policy.
Competition also depends on the universal service status, because infrastructure access obligations can be imposed on competitors that the company cannot control.
- PostNL
Dutch postal and parcel operator, a competitor in European logistics.
- Deutsche Post DHL
International logistics and parcel group, a competitor on cross-border deliveries.
- United Parcel ServiceUPS
Global parcel operator with a North American network, a competitor in e-commerce deliveries.
- FedExFDX
Courier and logistics company operating in North America and Europe.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202326 Mar 2024
- Annual report 202326 Mar 2024
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2023-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / bpost NV · 31 Dec 2023
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.