olivLaw · European equity research
Fincantieri S.p.A. FCT.MI
Italy · Euronext Milan · ISIN IT0005599938 · Vertical: Listed companies from Italy
Fincantieri is an Italian shipbuilding group active in cruise, defence, offshore and infrastructure, with revenues of 7,651 million EUR in 2023 and an order backlog above 34 billion EUR. In 2023 the group significantly reduced its leverage, a point of note as demand in cruise and defence remains high.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Fincantieri S.p.A. (FCT.MI) stock was 11.89 EUR (−4.77% on the day), with market capitalisation 20.3 bn EUR, beta 0.81, 52-week range 9.81–20.72 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 41.6
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 11.93 – 12.89
- below the lower band · %B -0.04 · band width 7.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 12.31 / 12.74
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.03 / 0.05
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −2.9% | −0.6% | −2.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −10.1% | −4.2% | −5.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | +0.7% | +4.3% | −3.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | −28.8% | +7.5% | −36.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | −43.8% | +9.9% | −53.8 pp | −6.1% |
| 3 years | +194.3% | +49.8% | +144.4 pp | +7.7% |
| 5 years | +123.2% | +42.8% | +80.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.3 bn | 7.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +1.3% |
| Net income | -324.0 m | -53.1 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.18 | -0.03 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -4.4% | -0.7% |
| Free cash flow | -281.8 m | 433.7 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2023 · 31 Dec 2023
- Cash
- 757.3 m EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 434.2 m EUR
- Total assets
- 8.7 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- -10.4%
- ROA
- -0.6%
- FCF margin
- 5.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.3 bn | 7.4 bn | esef· 02 Apr 2024verified |
| Interest expense | 240.9 m | 271.8 m | esef· 02 Apr 2024verified |
| Pre-tax income | -330.7 m | -64.0 m | esef· 02 Apr 2024verified |
| Income tax | -6.7 m | -10.8 m | esef· 02 Apr 2024verified |
| Net income | -324.0 m | -53.1 m | esef· 02 Apr 2024verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.18 | -0.03 | esef· 02 Apr 2024verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 564.6 m | 757.3 m | esef· 02 Apr 2024verified |
| Receivables | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 02 Apr 2024verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 02 Apr 2024verified |
| Total assets | 8.7 bn | 8.7 bn | esef· 02 Apr 2024verified |
| Accounts payable | 3.0 bn | 2.9 bn | esef· 02 Apr 2024verified |
| Equity | 586.9 m | 434.2 m | esef· 02 Apr 2024verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 02 Apr 2024derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -57.7 m | 636.7 m | esef· 02 Apr 2024verified |
| Capex | 224.1 m | 203.0 m | esef· 02 Apr 2024verified |
| Free cash flow | -281.8 m ≈ | 433.7 m ≈ | esef· 02 Apr 2024derived |
| Investing cash flow | -225.0 m | -106.5 m | esef· 02 Apr 2024verified |
| Financing cash flow | -389.5 m | -329.6 m | esef· 02 Apr 2024verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 2 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 14.6% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 20.3 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
15% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 14.6% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -0.7% | 21 (vs peers) | 43% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 2.1% | 27 (on a fixed band) | 57% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial21/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial27/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
FINCANTIERI S.P.A. (FCT.MI). Latest full fiscal year: 2023; data up to 2023-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 7.4 bn EUR in 2023; YoY growth 1.3%; net margin -0.7%; ROE -10.4%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 14.6% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -0.7%
- FCF yield: 2.1%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Italy · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCT.MIFincantieri S.p.a. | 20.3 bn | — | -10.4% | -0.7% | +1.3% | −30% / +188% |
| DLG.MIDe' Longhi S.p.a. | 6.8 bn | 21.5 | 15.4% | 8.4% | +8.7% | +24% / +60% |
| ACE.MIAcea S.p.a. | 4.6 bn | 9.6 | 18.2% | 16.6% | +0.2% | −4% / +73% |
| DIA.MIDiasorin S.p.a. | 4.3 bn | 28.3 | 9.2% | 13.0% | +0.8% | +31% / −7% |
| CRL.MICarel Industries S.p.a. | 2.9 bn | 39.5 | 16.1% | 11.7% | +8.7% | +3% / +10% |
| AMP.MIAmplifon S.p.a. | 2.7 bn | 29.9 | 8.5% | 3.8% | −0.6% | −9% / −58% |
| CMB.MICembre S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 27.0 | 20.6% | 18.9% | +6.7% | +11% / +108% |
| COM.MIComer Industries S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 18.6 | 12.8% | 7.1% | −23.0% | +8% / +64% |
| DNR.MIIndustrie De Nora S.p.a. | 1.1 bn | 13.4 | 8.6% | 9.4% | +1.4% | −22% / −62% |
| ARN.MIAlerion Clean Power S.p.a. In Forma Abbreviata Alerion S.p.a. | 969.2 m | 10.4 | 23.5% | 41.0% | +1.8% | −5% / −23% |
| AVIO.MIAvio S.p.a. | 883.6 m | 86.8 | 2.1% | 1.8% | +21.5% | +18% / +291% |
| CIR.MICir S.p.a. - Compagnie Industriali Riunite | 783.3 m | 6.0 | 17.1% | 7.3% | +1.6% | +4% / +72% |
| ASC.MIAscopiave S.p.a. | 646.3 m | 18.0 | 4.2% | 17.5% | +13.4% | −8% / +33% |
| AC5.MIAcinque S.p.a. | 412.6 m | 19.6 | 4.1% | 3.6% | +0.2% | −6% / +8% |
| BAN.MIBasic Net S.p.a. | 348.0 m | — | -4.9% | -3.5% | +0.4% | −30% / +5% |
| ADB.MIAeroporto Guglielmo Marconi Di Bologna S.p.a. | 324.7 m | 13.1 | 11.1% | 13.7% | +9.2% | −2% / +12% |
| CAI.MICairo Communication S.p.a. | 289.2 m | 6.4 | 8.1% | 4.4% | −1.3% | −22% / +28% |
| ECNL.MIAquafil S.p.a. | 129.6 m | — | -3.2% | -0.9% | −3.9% | −1% / −52% |
| BEC.MIB&C Speakers S.p.a. | 118.7 m | 11.7 | 18.5% | 10.2% | −1.3% | −26% / −32% |
| ABT.MIAbitare In S.p.a. | 76.0 m | 276.0 | 0.4% | 0.4% | +39.8% | −6% / −47% |
| ELC.MIElica S.p.a. | 64.3 m | — | -7.8% | -2.2% | +1.9% | −34% / −48% |
| DEX.MIDexelance S.p.a. | 50.7 m | 2.8 | 11.0% | 5.4% | +12.6% | −63% / −78% |
| CLE.MIClass Editori S.p.a. | 35.1 m | — | -29.2% | -3.8% | −0.7% | −9% / +106% |
| CLF.MICaleffi - S.p.a. | 11.6 m | 5.2 | 10.9% | 3.8% | −2.5% | −4% / −10% |
| AEF.MIAeffe S.p.a. | 10.1 m | 0.5 | 21.9% | 7.7% | −21.3% | −59% / −86% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for FCT.MI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Fincantieri is an Italian shipbuilding group active in cruise, defence, offshore and infrastructure, with revenues of 7,651 million EUR in 2023 and an order backlog above 34 billion EUR. In 2023 the group significantly reduced its leverage, a point of note as demand in cruise and defence remains high 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- A consistent order book, with a backlog several times the annual revenue, offering long-term visibility.
- Strong presence in complex segments such as cruise ships, naval vessels and offshore units with advanced technology.
- Rapid improvement in margins and cash generation in 2023, showing management's ability to execute the industrial plan.
Weaknesses
- High net debt relative to EBITDA, although declining, which limits financial flexibility.
- Operating margins remain modest and sensitive to raw material costs and production delays.
- Dependence on specialised labour that is hard to recruit, which can affect production capacity.
Opportunities
- Rising defence and maritime security investment could open new contracts for naval programmes.
- Development of green-propulsion and hydrogen ships could attract clients seeking low-emission technology.
- Expansion into offshore wind and underwater systems could diversify revenue sources.
Threats
- Inflationary pressure and high financing costs could reduce margins if not passed on in contract prices.
- Competition from European and Asian shipyards could affect the winning of orders.
- A geopolitical event or policy change in the defence sector could alter demand for existing programmes.
Risks
- Asbestos-related liabilitieshigh
Litigation linked to asbestos exposure in past years generated extraordinary charges, which could continue to weigh on net profit.
- Leveragehigh
Net debt relative to EBITDA remains high, and a fall in profitability could make its reduction harder.
- Costs and inflationmedium
Rising raw material prices and financing costs could compress margins on fixed-price projects.
- Labourmedium
Difficulty finding qualified shipbuilding staff could delay deliveries and raise costs.
- Complex project executionmedium
The shift to new technologies such as hydrogen ships or automation systems could cause delays and extra costs.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the cruise recovery and military demand hold, the large order book could support revenue growth and continued margin improvement.
- The rapid reduction of leverage in 2023 could create room for investment in green technologies and new segments.
- Diversification into defence, offshore and underwater systems could reduce dependence on a single segment.
What would break the thesis
- If inflationary pressure persists, margins on fixed-price projects could remain below expectations.
- Leverage that is still high could limit flexibility if demand slows.
- Asbestos litigation could generate further unforeseen costs, affecting net profit.
What to watch
- Delivery of the guidance for revenue of about 8 billion EUR and a margin of about 6%2024
- Development of backlog and new orders against the 0.9 book to bill ratio of 20232024
- Status of asbestos litigation and any further chargesnext annual report
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The group designs and builds complex vessels, from cruise ships and naval vessels to offshore units and support ships for wind farms, and provides services across the vessel life cycle 1. In 2023, 26 ships were delivered, and the total workload, made up of backlog and soft backlog, reached 34,772 million EUR at 31 December 2023 1. The group aims to become a global leader in the digital and green ship 1.
Segments
Cruise
In 2023 orders were signed for three units, including two hydrogen cruise ships for the luxury brand Explora Journeys of the MSC group, and six cruise ships were delivered to clients such as Viking, Oceania Cruises and Norwegian Cruise Line 1. Demand in cruising is supported by high ship occupancy and bookings above pre-pandemic levels 1.
Naval and Offshore
The naval segment includes defence programmes such as the U212 NFS submarine for the Italian Navy, the Constellation frigates for the US Navy, and the modernisation of Horizon frigates through the Naviris and Eurosam joint ventures 1. The offshore segment received orders for CSOV vessels for offshore wind farms 1.
Market context
The markets in which the group operates showed positive signs in 2023, with a recovery in cruising and rising defence investment, especially in South-East Asia and the Middle East 1. Inflationary pressure on raw materials and high interest rates remain points of attention, and the shortage of labour in shipbuilding persists 1.
Trends
- Cruise recoverytailwind
Ship occupancy reached 100% and bookings exceed pre-pandemic levels, suggesting a return to long-term growth in demand if the trend holds 1.
- Defence investmenttailwind
Geopolitical tensions are driving higher investment in defence, including maritime, opening new business opportunities 1.
- Inflationary pressureheadwind
Raw material prices and financing costs remain high, and the recent easing of inflation has not yet led to downward revisions of expectations 1.
- Offshore wind and green transitionmixed
Investment in offshore wind supports orders for maintenance vessels, and demand for ships with green technologies is rising, although these projects also carry high technology costs 1.
Competitive position
Competitive pressure comes from European and Asian shipyards operating in the same cruise, naval and offshore segments 1. The analysed source gives no further detail on competitors' positions, which limits a comparative assessment.
- Chantiers de l'Atlantique
French shipyard named in the report as a partner in the FLOTLOG logistic support programme for the French Navy, relevant to the naval segment.
- Naval Group
Partner in the Naviris joint venture for the Horizon frigate modernisation, indicating a mixed relationship of cooperation and competition.
- Vard
Shipbuilding unit that delivered an Armada-series vessel to Ocean Infinity, in the offshore segment.
- MBDA and Thales (Eurosam consortium)
Defence consortium involved in the Horizon frigate modernisation project, relevant to the military segment.
News & filings
In the press
- Un sudor român de 34 de ani a murit pe șantierul naval Fincantieri din Veneția, după ce s-a intoxicat cu gaze. Compania la care lucra spune că decesul a fost din „cauze naturale”Libertatea.ro · 06 Nov 2026 · RO
- Fincantieri, Navantia and Naval Group advance European corvette programmeEuractiv · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Euronaval 2026 – Fincantieri unveils the multi-mission modular vessel (MMMV): one hull, many missionsEuropean Defence Review · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- ► Fincantieri and Leonardo sign an agreement to further strengthen the role of Orizzonte Sistemi NavaliEuropean Defence Review · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- INTERVIEW: Fincantieri CEO urges Europe to reduce naval fragmentationEuractiv · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- ► Fincantieri strengthens its position in Subsea telecommunications with the completion of the Xtera acquisitionEuropean Defence Review · 14 Oct 2026 · RO
- Fincantieri shipyard accident kills worker, critically injures anotherThe Straits Times — Asia · 30 Sept 2026 · EN
- ► Fincantieri and PT PAL Indonesia sign agreement for the modernization of the Indonesian Navy’s Kri Sriwijaya (former Giuseppe Garibaldi)European Defence Review · 28 Sept 2026 · RO
- ► Fincantieri Marine Systems and Seatek to explore marine markets across the AmericasEuropean Defence Review · 24 Sept 2026 · RO
- Italy-Greece Naval cooperation: FINCANTIERI at the heart of the agreement for two FREMM frigates for the Hellenic NavyEuropean Defence Review · 09 Sept 2026 · RO
- Portugalia va cumpăra trei fregate construite de compania italiană FincantieriAntena 3 CNN · 22 Jul 2026 · RO
- Portugalia va achiziționa trei fregate construite de grupul italian Fincantieri, a anunțat Giorgia MeloniAgerpres · 20 Jul 2026 · RO
- Portugalia va achiziţiona trei fregate construite de grupul italian FincantieriG4Media · 20 Jul 2026 · RO
- Fincantieri Says Hybrid Warfare Is Growing Threat to Europe SeasBloomberg Markets · 07 Jul 2026 · EN
- Fincantieri calls for nuclear-powered ships and AIEuractiv · 26 Jun 2026 · RO
- FIREPOWER: Fincantieri positive on defence outlook despite Q1 revenue dropEuractiv · 12 May 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202302 Apr 2024
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2024-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Fincantieri S.p.A. · 31 Dec 2024
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.