olivLaw · European equity research
Ferrovial, S.A. FER.MC
Spain · BME Madrid · Vertical: Listed companies from Spain
Ferrovial is a European infrastructure group active in construction, airports and, to a lesser extent, energy and mobility, with construction revenue above 6,400 million euros in 2022. The group restructured its portfolio in 2022, selling Services and entering new airports, which changes its risk and growth profile.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Ferrovial, S.A. (FER.MC) stock was 51.60 EUR (−1.71% on the day), with market capitalisation 38.4 bn EUR, P/E 206.4 on diluted EPS of 0.25 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.34%, beta 0.87, 52-week range 43.22–63.16 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 67.0
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 40.51 – 53.49
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.85 · band width 27.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 47.69 / 55.41
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 1.26 / 0.37
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +13.2% | +0.4% | +12.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | −9.6% | −3.3% | −6.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | −13.7% | +4.0% | −17.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | −6.8% | +8.1% | −14.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | −6.5% | +10.7% | −17.2 pp | +6.7% |
| 3 years | +79.7% | +50.1% | +29.6 pp | +31.5% |
| 5 years | +88.3% | +43.6% | +44.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 16.9, median 57.4, max 97.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.9 bn | 7.6 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +9.3% |
| Net income | 1.2 bn | 186.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −84.5% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.63 | 0.25 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −84.7% |
| net % | 17.3% | 2.5% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2022 · 31 Dec 2022
- Cash
- 5.1 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 6.4 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 26.3 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.38x
- ROE
- 3.1%
- ROA
- 0.7%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.9 bn | 7.6 bn | esef· 09 May 2023verified |
| Gross profit | 610.0 m | 728.0 m | esef· 09 May 2023verified |
| Operating income | 1.5 bn | 423.0 m | esef· 09 May 2023verified |
| Pre-tax income | 966.0 m | 268.0 m | esef· 09 May 2023verified |
| Income tax | -9.0 m | 30.0 m | esef· 09 May 2023verified |
| Net income | 1.2 bn | 186.0 m | esef· 09 May 2023verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.63 | 0.25 | esef· 09 May 2023verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.04 | 0.18 | esef· 09 May 2023derived |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 5.5 bn | 5.1 bn | esef· 09 May 2023verified |
| Receivables | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | esef· 09 May 2023verified |
| Current assets | 9.0 bn | 7.4 bn | esef· 09 May 2023verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 354.0 m | 479.0 m | esef· 09 May 2023verified |
| Goodwill | 431.0 m | 480.0 m | esef· 09 May 2023verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 126.0 m | 137.0 m | esef· 09 May 2023verified |
| Total assets | 24.9 bn | 26.3 bn | esef· 09 May 2023verified |
| Accounts payable | 2.8 bn | 3.4 bn | esef· 09 May 2023verified |
| Current liabilities | 6.5 bn | 5.4 bn | esef· 09 May 2023verified |
| Equity | 5.8 bn | 6.4 bn | esef· 09 May 2023verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 735.0 m | 744.0 m | esef· 09 May 2023derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 810.0 m | 1.0 bn | esef· 09 May 2023verified |
| Investing cash flow | 457.0 m | -732.0 m | esef· 09 May 2023verified |
| Financing cash flow | -2.2 bn | -316.0 m | esef· 09 May 2023verified |
| Dividends paid | 31.0 m | 132.0 m | esef· 09 May 2023verified |
| Share repurchases | 432.0 m | 446.0 m | esef· 09 May 2023verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 38.4 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
27% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 2.41 – 5.68 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E3.80 – 5.68 (Mid 4.97)18 companies used · median multiple 19.9x · quartiles 15.2x – 22.7xACS.MC, ADX.MC, AEDAS.MC, AENA.MC, AMS.MC, ANA.MC, CAF.MC, CLEO.MC, CMO.MC, DESA.MC, DIA.MC, EAT.MC, EDR.MC, ELE.MC, ENER.MC, ENO.MC, FAE.MC, FCC.MC
- Dividend discount (DDM)2.41 – 3.29 (Mid 2.78)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 2.5% | 38 (vs peers) | 23% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.4x | 48 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 206.4x | 5 (vs peers) | 38% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 1.5% | 22 (on a fixed band) | 23% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial48/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial38/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial22/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial5/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
FERROVIAL SA (FER.MC). Latest full fiscal year: 2022; data up to 2022-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 7.6 bn EUR in 2022; YoY growth 9.3%; net margin 2.5%; ROE 4.6%.
The estimated value range is 3.10–4.49 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 3.88 EUR, the price of 51.60 EUR leaves a potential of -92.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -1,231.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- P/E (TTM): 206.4x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.5%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Spain · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELE.MCEndesa SA | 46.9 bn | 21.4 | 26.4% | 10.5% | +0.5% | +43% / +134% |
| AENA.MCAena S.m.e. SA | 42.6 bn | 19.9 | 24.2% | 34.0% | +8.9% | +21% / +79% |
| FER.MCFerrovial SA | 38.4 bn | 206.4 | 4.6% | 2.5% | +9.3% | −9% / +62% |
| AMS.MCAmadeus It Group Sociedad Anonima | 26.2 bn | 19.8 | 26.9% | 20.5% | +6.1% | −6% / −5% |
| ACS.MCAcs Actividades De Construccion Y Servicios, S.A. | 21.9 bn | 23.0 | 19.9% | 1.9% | +19.7% | +7% / +134% |
| ANA.MCAcciona SA | 11.7 bn | 14.5 | 16.9% | 4.0% | +5.5% | +24% / +66% |
| FCC.MCFomento De Construcciones Y Contratas S.A. | 5.0 bn | 30.3 | 5.3% | 1.7% | +6.9% | −8% / −14% |
| DIA.MCDistribuidora Internacional De Alimentacion SA | 2.7 bn | 20.6 | 165.6% | 2.2% | −2.7% | +51% / +380,733% |
| CMO.MCCementos Molins S.A. | 2.5 bn | 13.6 | 14.3% | 18.0% | −3.1% | +31% / unavailable |
| ENO.MCElecnor SA | 2.4 bn | 21.9 | 10.5% | 2.5% | +15.1% | −3% / +58% |
| ALM.MCAlmirall S.A. | 2.4 bn | 51.1 | 3.1% | 4.2% | +12.4% | −11% / +32% |
| FAE.MCFaes Farma SA | 1.5 bn | 19.3 | 10.8% | 13.0% | +23.7% | +3% / +57% |
| AEDAS.MCAedas Homes SA | 1.0 bn | 17.1 | 57.8% | 7.0% | −24.8% | +0% / +38% |
| EDR.MCEdreams Odigeo SA | 574.4 m | 11.5 | 21.0% | 7.8% | −0.4% | +40% / −24% |
| EAT.MCAmRest Holdings SE | 506.0 m | 31.4 | 4.3% | 0.6% | +0.1% | −34% / −61% |
| ADX.MCAudax Renovables S.A. | 468.5 m | 23.9 | 9.3% | 1.0% | −5.4% | −23% / −18% |
| ATRY.MCAtrys Health, S.A. | 200.4 m | — | -49.5% | -71.1% | +8.5% | −3% / −29% |
| ENER.MCEcoener, S.A. | 175.6 m | 32.2 | 4.2% | 6.4% | +3.6% | −34% / −6% |
| ADZ.MCAdolfo Dominguez SA | 62.9 m | 38.3 | 9.0% | 1.2% | +1.8% | +39% / +40% |
| DESA.MCDesarrollos Especiales De Sistemas De Anclaje S.A. | 44.8 m | 9.2 | 152.3% | 10.0% | +2.2% | +19% / unavailable |
| EZE.MCGrupo Ezentis SA | 29.0 m | — | — | -9.3% | +147.2% | −30% / −37% |
| CLEO.MCCompañia Levantina De Edificacion Y Obras Publicas SA | 17.3 m | 14.4 | 4.1% | 3.4% | +13.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AYC.MCAyco Grupo Inmobiliario, S.A. | 16.4 m | — | -33.8% | — | −100.0% | unavailable / unavailable |
| EBRO.MCEbro Foods, S.A. | 3.0 m | 0.0 | 10.0% | 7.7% | −4.0% | −0% / +19% |
| A3M.MCAtresmedia Corporacion De Medios De Comunicacion, S.A. | — | — | 7.9% | 6.9% | −2.7% | +13% / +60% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for FER.MC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 31.96 Total return -38% · Per year -38% | 56.39 Total return 10% · Per year 10% | 84.76 Total return 65% · Per year 65% |
| 3 years | 34.07 Total return -33% · Per year -13% | 67.33 Total return 32% · Per year 10% | 110.69 Total return 116% · Per year 29% |
| 5 years | 36.32 Total return -28% · Per year -6% | 80.40 Total return 58% · Per year 10% | 144.56 Total return 183% · Per year 23% |
- Exit P/E± 16.83
- Net margin± 11.78
- Annual revenue growth± 9.25
- Annual dilution± 0.99
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Ferrovial is a European infrastructure group active in construction, airports and, to a lesser extent, energy and mobility, with construction revenue above 6,400 million euros in 2022. The group restructured its portfolio in 2022, selling Services and entering new airports, which changes its risk and growth profile.
SWOT
Strengths
- Diversified portfolio across construction and airport concessions, with stakes in major airports.
- Large order backlog and a solid international presence in construction.
- Long experience in managing complex projects and long-term concessions.
Weaknesses
- Margins in the Construction division are under pressure from costs and fixed-price contracts.
- Dependence on Heathrow and on British regulation exposes the group to decisions taken elsewhere.
- The energy and mobility division is still small and does not offset the margin decline in construction.
Opportunities
- The recovery of air traffic could support commercial revenues at the airports in the portfolio.
- Renewable energy and transmission projects could become a new source of growth.
- Public infrastructure markets in North America and Central Europe may generate new orders.
Threats
- Inflationary pressure could keep eroding margins on existing contracts.
- Unfavourable regulatory decisions in the United Kingdom could limit investment at Heathrow.
- Lower public infrastructure budgets could reduce the volume of new contracts.
Risks
- Heathrow regulatory riskhigh
The CAA final decision on H7 tariffs has not yet been taken. If tariffs stay below investment needs, the expansion plan could be postponed.
- Construction cost riskhigh
Fixed-price contracts expose the division to cost increases. Ferrovial mentions onerous contracts whose losses cannot be fully provisioned under accounting rules.
- Air traffic exposuremedium
Airport revenues depend on passenger numbers and commercial spending. A new disruption to traffic could quickly reduce results.
- NTO project riskmedium
The JFK project involves significant capital and expected operation in 2026. Delays or cost overruns could affect the return on the stake.
- Financing riskmedium
Heathrow leverage is high and the cost of debt has increased. Tighter financing conditions could limit investment capacity.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the recovery of air traffic continues and the Heathrow price regime stabilises, airport revenues could support group growth.
- The large construction backlog gives visibility for several years, and participation in international projects could support new contracts.
- The energy and mobility division could become a long-term growth driver if early-stage projects materialise.
What would break the thesis
- Construction margins fell in 2022, and cost pressure could persist if energy and material prices stay high.
- Dependence on Heathrow exposes the group to a final regulatory decision that could reduce revenues and planned investment.
- The new divisions are still small, and execution risk in energy and mobility could limit their contribution in the near term.
What to watch
- CAA final decision on Heathrow H7 tariffs2023
- Evolution of construction RE margin after cost pressurenext 10-K
- Progress of the NTO project at JFK and its operating schedule2026
- Traffic at AGS, Dalaman and Heathrow versus the company's forecastsQ1 2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Ferrovial SA is an infrastructure group with activities in construction, airport concessions and energy and mobility projects. According to the 2022 integrated annual report, the Construction division booked sales of 6,463 million euros, and its backlog reached 14,743 million euros at December 2022. In 2022 the group largely completed the sale of its Services division, focusing the company on infrastructure.
Airport concessions are managed through stakes in Heathrow, AGS, Dalaman and NTO at JFK, each with a different consolidation structure. Heathrow reported 2022 sales of 2,913 million pounds and an adjusted EBITDA of 1,684 million pounds, as traffic reopened after the pandemic.
The Energy Infrastructure and Mobility division, created in 2021, includes Zity, an electric car sharing service owned 50% with Renault, and transmission and solar projects. In 2022 it had sales of 296 million euros and an EBITDA of 13 million euros.
Segments
Construction
The Construction division includes Budimex, Webber and Ferrovial Construcción. Sales of 6,463 million euros grew 2.2% on a like-for-like basis, but RE fell to 63 million euros, indicating pressure from cost inflation. The 14,743 million euro backlog is dominated by civil works and international markets, with 85% of it outside Spain.
Airports
The airport holdings include Heathrow (with a RAB of 19,182 million pounds at December 2022), AGS in the United Kingdom, Dalaman in Turkey and NTO at JFK. Traffic recovered after the pandemic, with AGS reaching 9.2 million passengers and Dalaman 4.5 million. The NTO project involves a contribution of 1,142 million dollars and expected operation in 2026.
Energy Infrastructure and Mobility
This division, with 296 million euros of sales in 2022, includes Zity, waste treatment in the United Kingdom and services in Chile. It is still small relative to construction, but it could become a growth driver if the early-stage energy projects materialise.
Market context
In construction, inflationary pressure on materials and energy has reduced margins, while demand for large infrastructure projects remains solid. The company highlights that its participation in international projects, particularly in North America and Poland, could support the backlog.
Trends
- Recovery of air traffictailwind
Airport traffic has recovered after pandemic restrictions, supporting commercial revenues and passenger charges. If the recovery continues, airport revenues could keep growing.
- Cost inflationheadwind
Rising prices of energy, materials and labour have eroded the margins of the Construction division, reducing RE. Price revision formulas in some contracts offset this only partly.
- Airport price regulationmixed
The CAA final decision for Heathrow's H7 period is still pending, and differences between the regulator's proposals and the company's plan could affect revenues over several years.
- Energy transition and mobilitytailwind
Demand for renewable energy, transmission and electric mobility opens new opportunities for the Energy Infrastructure division, but these projects are still at early stages.
Competitive position
Ferrovial competes in construction with European and international infrastructure groups, and in airports with investors specialised in concessions. Its positions at Heathrow and the NTO project at JFK place it among important players in the global airport sector, while in construction competition centres on large contracts and the ability to manage cost risk.
In energy and mobility, Ferrovial faces companies specialised in renewables and mobility services, and its advantage lies in infrastructure experience and in partnerships such as the one with Renault for Zity.
- Vinci
European concessions and construction group, a direct competitor in large infrastructure projects and airport concessions.
- Acciona
Spanish group with activities in infrastructure, construction and renewable energy, competing in the international project market.
- Aena
Airport operator, an indirect competitor through its model of managing airports in Spain and abroad.
- FluorFLR
US engineering and construction company, competing in international infrastructure and energy projects.
News & filings
In the press
- Nashville’s Traffic Nightmare Is Now a $9.2B Ferrovial (FER)-Led ProjectYahoo Finance — News · 19 Sept 2026 · EN
- Ferrovial to End Amsterdam Listing as Trading Shifts to USBloomberg Markets · 14 Aug 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202209 May 2023
- Annual report 202209 May 2023
- Annual report 202209 May 2023
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2022-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Ferrovial, S.A. · 31 Dec 2022
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.