olivLaw · European equity research
Icelandair Group hf. ICEAIR.IC
Iceland · Nasdaq Iceland · ISIN IS0000013464 · Vertical: Listed companies from Iceland
Icelandair Group runs an international airline with a route network built around Keflavík, plus ground handling, maintenance, cargo and charter operations. Total operating income for fiscal 2025 was about 1.74 billion USD, and pressures from carbon costs and ongoing union negotiations keep the business under close watch.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Icelandair Group hf. (ICEAIR.IC) stock was 0.68 ISK (−0.29% on the day), with beta 0.69, 52-week range 0.62–0.96 ISK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 54.8
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 0.64 – 0.69
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.78 · band width 8.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 0.67 / 0.74
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.00 / -0.00
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +2.1% | +0.4% | +1.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −11.7% | −3.3% | −8.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | −14.6% | +4.0% | −18.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | −23.3% | +8.1% | −31.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | −15.0% | +10.7% | −25.7 pp | −7.8% |
| 3 years | −50.0% | +50.1% | −100.1 pp | +13.1% |
| 5 years | −60.0% | +43.6% | −103.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 10.7 m | -20.6 m | -9.3 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −291.7% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 0.00 | -0.05 | -0.02 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −16,766.7% | unavailable |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | 81.3 m | 110.7 m | 202.2 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 195.5 m USD
- Financial debt
- 177.4 m USD
- Net debt
- -18.1 m USD
- Equity
- 286.4 m USD
- Total assets
- 1.9 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.62x
- Current ratio
- 0.69x
- ROE
- -3.4%
- ROA
- -0.5%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income | 21.0 m | -14.2 m | -17.2 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 135.5 m | 154.1 m | 173.8 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 156.5 m ≈ | 139.9 m ≈ | 156.6 m ≈ | esef· 17 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 41.0 m | 42.8 m | 48.4 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 7.8 m | -24.8 m | -20.4 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -3.4 m | -4.6 m | -10.8 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 10.7 m | -20.6 m | -9.3 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.00 | -0.05 | -0.02 | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 199.5 m | 150.2 m | 195.5 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 161.9 m | 178.7 m | 178.8 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 23.8 m | 24.5 m | 28.1 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 457.1 m | 462.4 m | 576.8 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 555.1 m | 559.9 m | 563.5 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 222.4 m | 260.1 m | 318.7 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 44.9 m | 41.0 m | 39.1 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 207.4 m | 164.7 m | 138.2 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 645.8 m | 724.6 m | 830.7 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 288.3 m | 269.1 m | 286.4 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | 411.2 m | 466.5 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026derived |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 215.1 m | 221.2 m | 305.0 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 133.8 m | 110.5 m | 102.8 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 81.3 m ≈ | 110.7 m ≈ | 202.2 m ≈ | esef· 17 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -183.7 m | -164.8 m | -177.8 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -56.6 m | -105.4 m | -105.7 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
31% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -4.9% | 0 (vs peers) | 33% |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.1x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 33% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -0.4x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.7x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet50/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Icelandair Group hf. (ICEAIR.IC). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE -3.4%; net debt/EBITDA -0.1x.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net debt / EBITDA: -0.1x
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -4.9%
- Interest coverage: -0.4x
- Current ratio: 0.7x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net margin, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Iceland · same country · compared with 11 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAGA.ICHagar hf. | 133.6 bn | 20.5 | 18.2% | 3.8% | +9.3% | +8% / +83% |
| FESTI.ICFesti hf. | 90.9 bn | 22.8 | 10.1% | 2.6% | +13.4% | −8% / +67% |
| HEIMAR.ICHeimar hf. | 61.3 bn | 7.5 | 13.5% | 55.5% | +7.7% | −6% / +49% |
| BERA.ICÖlgerðin Egill Skallagríms hf. | 37.1 bn | 17.3 | 13.7% | 5.9% | +7.7% | −24% / +0% |
| NOVA.ICNova Klúbburinn hf | 12.0 bn | 14.8 | 8.5% | 6.1% | +2.8% | −26% / −16% |
| ALVO.ICAlvotech | — | — | — | 9.0% | +43.4% | −14% / −58% |
| ASAR.ICSíminn hf. | — | 17.4 | — | — | +3.0% | −19% / +27% |
| BRIM.ICBrim hf. | — | — | 11.9% | 14.6% | +5.2% | +19% / +13% |
| EIK.ICEik Fasteignafélag Hf. | — | — | 10.2% | 43.6% | +9.5% | +1% / +23% |
| EIM.ICEimskipafélag Íslands hf. | — | — | 3.2% | 1.2% | −4.7% | +6% / −35% |
| HAMP.ICHampiðjan hf | — | — | 1.7% | 1.2% | +15.7% | −26% / −37% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ICEAIR.IC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Icelandair Group runs an international airline with a route network built around Keflavík, plus ground handling, maintenance, cargo and charter operations. Total operating income for fiscal 2025 was about 1.74 billion USD, and pressures from carbon costs and ongoing union negotiations keep the business under close watch.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group has an integrated network combining passenger transport with handling, maintenance and cargo, which diversifies income sources.
- The company has shown flexibility and resilience in earlier crises when facing short and medium-term demand shocks.
- Liquidity management practices and committed credit lines support its ability to get through difficult periods.
Weaknesses
- Revenue is in US dollars while a significant part of costs is in krona, which exposes the group to currency swings.
- Most employees are unionised, and collective agreements came up for renewal with no new deals reached by year-end 2025.
- Dependence on a single hub, Keflavík, leaves the group exposed to local disruptions such as seismic activity or capacity cuts.
Opportunities
- If SAF and cleaner fuel technologies develop, the group could reduce its emissions costs over the longer term.
- Reduced competitor capacity at Keflavík could support fares and aircraft utilisation on the main routes.
- Expansion in cargo and maintenance services could add income that is steadier than passenger transport.
Threats
- A reduction in free ETS allowances could expose the company to higher and more volatile carbon certificate costs.
- Low-cost competition and aggressive fare cuts could compress margins on most routes.
- Geopolitical events, trade tariffs and oil price swings could affect both demand and costs.
Risks
- Macroeconomic and competition riskhigh
An economic slowdown or lower consumer spending could reduce demand for flights. Strong competition limits the ability to hold fares, and without a competitive product revenue targets could be missed.
- Safety and security riskhigh
The loss or grounding of an aircraft, through an accident or malfunction, would bring direct losses and damage customer confidence. External events such as armed conflicts or natural disasters could disrupt schedules.
- Regulatory and environmental riskhigh
Fuel taxes, emissions obligations and the phase-out of free ETS allowances could raise operating costs. Non-compliance with regulations can lead to fines and penalties.
- Labour market riskmedium
Collective agreements for cabin crew, pilots and aircraft mechanics were still under negotiation at year-end 2025. Strikes could disrupt flight operations.
- Technical and reputational riskmedium
Failures in IT systems or disruptions to the flight network could affect operations and reputation. Greater focus on sustainability makes social and environmental perception more important.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Resilience shown in earlier crises and an integrated network with handling, maintenance and cargo could support revenue even when passenger demand weakens.
- Reduced capacity at Keflavík after Play ceased operations could support fares on the group's main market.
- If sustainable fuel technologies become more accessible, emissions costs could ease, particularly after 2026.
What would break the thesis
- The phase-out of free ETS allowances could make carbon costs higher and more volatile, which could weigh on margins.
- Swings between the US dollar and the Icelandic krona could compress margins, since salaries are paid in krona.
- Renegotiating collective agreements without settled deals could lead to strikes and schedule disruptions.
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The Icelandair Group is an international airline based in Iceland that builds its network around its Keflavík hub. Besides passenger transport, the group runs ground handling, maintenance, cargo and charter operations. The group's functional currency is the US dollar, while salaries are paid in Icelandic krona, so the krona's level matters a great deal for costs. Shares trade on Nasdaq Iceland's Regulated Market.
Segments
Passenger revenue
Passenger revenue, which includes leasing and ancillary revenue, makes up the largest part of the business. The annual report splits it into passenger, ancillary and leasing revenue.
Other operating revenue
Other operating revenue includes airport sales, tourism revenue, aircraft handling, cargo and gains on the sale of operating assets. These lines complement passenger revenue and diversify income sources.
Maintenance and cargo operations
The group also runs aircraft maintenance and cargo operations, which the report lists separately from passenger transport. These lines are less visible in the headline figures but contribute to the operating base.
Market context
The markets the group serves are sensitive to broad macroeconomic conditions, inflation, interest rates and exchange rates. The report shows that in 2025 financial market volatility, linked to tariff changes announced by the US government, affected the EUR/USD and USD/ISK rates. Competition between airlines is intense, and prices are strongly influenced by fare discounting.
The sector is also under pressure from environmental rules such as jet fuel taxes, SAF mandates and the European ETS, whose free allocation is being phased out. The report notes that 2026 could be the last year with any free allowances, which could raise the cost of buying certificates.
Trends
- Phase-out of free ETS allowancesheadwind
Free carbon allowances are shrinking, and the report indicates that 2026 could be the last year with any. If certificate costs rise, operating margins could be affected.
- Reduced capacity at Keflavíkmixed
Capacity to and from Keflavík airport was slightly corrected in 2025, notably after Play ceased operations in late September. This correction could support fares but may also reduce passenger volumes.
- CORSIA and SAF requirementsheadwind
CORSIA has moved into its compliance phase, with first credit procurement expected in 2026. SAF obligations add costs but may also open opportunities for cleaner technologies.
- Currency volatilitymixed
Revenue is in US dollars while salaries are in Icelandic krona. A stronger krona could compress margins, while dollar volatility against other currencies can influence demand and results.
Competitive position
Competition in aviation is high, and low-cost carriers can enter new routes or cut fares. The report also points to mergers, acquisitions and partnerships as factors shaping competition. If the group does not offer a competitive product, it risks missing its revenue and profit targets.
- European low-cost carriers
The report cites entry by low-cost airlines as a factor pressuring fares, without naming them.
- Play airline
The end of Play's operations in late September 2025 changed the capacity picture on the Keflavík route network.
- Transatlantic airlines
The report links competition to the North American routes, where flights face different CORSIA rules than intra-EU flights.
- Other Northern European carriers
Regional competitors can influence fares and market share on routes passing through European hubs.
News & filings
In the press
- Icelandair Reveals First 2 Transatlantic Routes For Its Airbus A320neosSimple Flying · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- Icelandair Will Fly A 160-Seat Boeing 737 MAX 8 From St. Louis To Reykjavik With Southwest Airlines ConnectionsSimple Flying · 19 Oct 2026 · EN
- Icelandair Unveils New US Nonstop Route To This Southwest Airlines City: See Map NowSimple Flying · 08 Oct 2026 · EN
- Icelandair adding St. Louis, a stronghold for partner Southwest AirlinesThe Points Guy · 07 Oct 2026 · EN
- Icelandair Cancels This 5-Hour Route To Canada: See Map NowSimple Flying · 30 Sept 2026 · EN
- Scrapped But Not Gone: Iconic Icelandair Boeing 757 Turned Into KeychainsSimple Flying · 07 Sept 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202517 Feb 2026
- Annual report 202404 Feb 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Icelandair Group hf. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.