olivLaw · European equity research
Íslandsbanki hf. ISB.IC
Iceland · Nasdaq Iceland · ISIN IS0000028538 · Vertical: Listed companies from Iceland
Íslandsbanki hf. is an Icelandic commercial bank listed on Nasdaq Iceland, providing banking services to individuals and companies. The bank closed 2025 with a profit of over 25 billion Icelandic krona and guides for a return on equity of around 12% in 2026, which matters given uncertainty over the pace of interest rate cuts.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Íslandsbanki hf. (ISB.IC) stock was 137.60 ISK (+0.58% on the day), with market capitalisation 255.1 bn ISK, P/E 10.1 on diluted EPS of 13.62 ISK over the last 12 months, dividend yield 4,694,767.44%, beta 0.31, 52-week range 121.50–150.50 ISK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 45.5
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 135.59 – 140.43
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.42 · band width 3.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 139.60 / 141.33
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.74 / -0.66
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −1.9% | +0.4% | −2.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −5.2% | −3.3% | −2.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | −5.8% | +4.0% | −9.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | −6.7% | +8.1% | −14.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | +16.1% | +10.7% | +5.4 pp | −7.8% |
| 3 years | +32.3% | +50.1% | −17.8 pp | +13.1% |
| 5 years | +9.9% | +43.6% | −33.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 67 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 9.0, median 9.9, max 10.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 24.6 bn | 24.2 bn | 25.2 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −1.4% | +4.1% |
| Diluted EPS | 12.34 | 12.53 | 13.62 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +1.5% | +8.7% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | 25.9 bn | 16.0 bn | -454.0 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 125.9 bn ISK
- Financial debt
- unavailable ISK
- Net debt
- unavailable ISK
- Equity
- 225.4 bn ISK
- Total assets
- 1,728.1 bn ISK
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 11.2%
- ROA
- 1.5%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (ISK)
Income statement · ISK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax income | 33.7 bn | 33.7 bn | 35.0 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 9.2 bn | 9.5 bn | 9.7 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 24.6 bn | 24.2 bn | 25.2 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 12.34 | 12.53 | 13.62 | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 6.15 | 6,260,000.00 | 6,460,000.00 | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · ISK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 139.1 bn | 83.5 bn | 125.9 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 6.6 bn | 5.0 bn | 4.7 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 2.9 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.7 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1,582.7 bn | 1,607.8 bn | 1,728.1 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1,358.0 bn | 1,380.5 bn | 1,502.8 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 224.7 bn | 227.4 bn | 225.4 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026derived |
Cash flow · ISK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 26.2 bn | 16.4 bn | 30.0 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 311.0 m | 426.0 m | 484.0 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 25.9 bn ≈ | 16.0 bn ≈ | -454.0 m ≈ | esef· 17 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -322.0 m | -922.0 m | -1.0 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -78.4 bn | -68.9 bn | 45.7 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 12.3 bn | 12.3 bn | 12.1 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 2.3 bn | 9.1 bn | 14.6 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 255.1 bn ISK
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
31% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -1.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 10.1x | 83 (vs peers) | 33% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -0.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 27% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 10.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation46/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Íslandsbanki hf. (ISB.IC). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 11.2%.
The estimated value range is 31,684,879.77–39,140,139.87 ISK per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 35,020,118.39 ISK, the price of 137.60 ISK leaves a potential of 25,450,567.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 100.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- P/E (TTM): 10.1x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 10.5%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: -1.8%
- FCF yield: -0.2%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Iceland · same country · compared with 11 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAGA.ICHagar hf. | 133.6 bn | 20.5 | 18.2% | 3.8% | +9.3% | +8% / +83% |
| FESTI.ICFesti hf. | 90.9 bn | 22.8 | 10.1% | 2.6% | +13.4% | −8% / +67% |
| HEIMAR.ICHeimar hf. | 61.3 bn | 7.5 | 13.5% | 55.5% | +7.7% | −6% / +49% |
| BERA.ICÖlgerðin Egill Skallagríms hf. | 37.1 bn | 17.3 | 13.7% | 5.9% | +7.7% | −24% / +0% |
| NOVA.ICNova Klúbburinn hf | 12.0 bn | 14.8 | 8.5% | 6.1% | +2.8% | −26% / −16% |
| ALVO.ICAlvotech | — | — | — | 9.0% | +43.4% | −14% / −58% |
| ASAR.ICSíminn hf. | — | 17.4 | — | — | +3.0% | −19% / +27% |
| BRIM.ICBrim hf. | — | — | 11.9% | 14.6% | +5.2% | +19% / +13% |
| EIK.ICEik Fasteignafélag Hf. | — | — | 10.2% | 43.6% | +9.5% | +1% / +23% |
| EIM.ICEimskipafélag Íslands hf. | — | — | 3.2% | 1.2% | −4.7% | +6% / −35% |
| HAMP.ICHampiðjan hf | — | — | 1.7% | 1.2% | +15.7% | −26% / −37% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ISB.IC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Íslandsbanki hf. is an Icelandic commercial bank listed on Nasdaq Iceland, providing banking services to individuals and companies. The bank closed 2025 with a profit of over 25 billion Icelandic krona and guides for a return on equity of around 12% in 2026, which matters given uncertainty over the pace of interest rate cuts.
SWOT
Strengths
- The bank reports capital and liquidity that are strong and well above regulatory and internal requirements, giving flexibility in capital allocation 1.
- The shareholder base is broad, with many retail and institutional investors, and the bank is one of the largest listed companies in Iceland 1.
- The bank has a developed governance and risk management framework, and the external auditor issued an unqualified opinion 1.
Weaknesses
- Concentration of the balance sheet in lending makes the bank exposed to changes in loan portfolio quality and to court rulings affecting contracts 1.
- Interest margins could be pressured by the CPI-related imbalance and the shrinking liquidity portfolio, which could limit interest income 1.
- Capital market activity is sensitive to uncertainty over interest rate cuts, which could affect trading volumes 1.
Opportunities
- International lending and infrastructure finance provide an additional channel for loan portfolio growth 1.
- Rising capital market activity could support asset management and investment banking income 1.
- Capital optimisation and possible distributions to shareholders could raise return on equity if market conditions and regulators allow 1.
Risks
- Credit riskhigh
Expected credit loss provisions involve significant judgement; changes in assumptions about collateral and future cash flows could affect results 1.
- Mortgage legal riskhigh
Supreme Court rulings on interest-rate clauses could affect existing contracts and could create additional costs if further judgements follow 1.
- Interest rate riskmedium
Interest margins could be affected by the uncertain pace of rate cuts and by the shrinking liquidity portfolio 1.
- Capital market riskmedium
Trading volumes could fall if uncertainty over interest rates grows, weighing on brokerage and asset management income 1.
- IT and operational risklow
Financial reporting depends heavily on automated IT systems, which the auditor identified as a key audit matter 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If inflation eases and rates fall as expected, margins and lending could benefit, and the bank could reach its guided return on equity for 2026 1.
- Growing capital market activity combined with international lending could diversify the bank's income 1.
- Strong capital could allow distributions to shareholders or share buybacks, if regulators approve and market conditions are favourable 1.
What would break the thesis
- If inflation stays persistent, rate cuts could be delayed, which could pressure margins and limit growth in interest income 1.
- New court rulings on mortgages could lead to additional provisions or costly product changes 1.
- Rising uncertainty over rate cuts could weigh on capital market volumes and asset management income 1.
What to watch
- Delivery of the guided return on equity and cost-to-income ratio2026
- Trajectory of the net interest margin against the roughly 3% estimate2026
- Follow-on effects of Supreme Court rulings on variable-rate mortgages2026
- Pace of capital optimisation and any distributions to shareholders2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Íslandsbanki hf. aims, according to its annual report, to empower its customers to be a force for good in the Icelandic community, integrating sustainability into its activities alongside profit objectives. Lending is central: loans to customers stood at ISK 1,367,106 million, or 79% of total assets at 31 December 2025 1. The bank also runs asset management and investment banking and brokerage operations, whose performance depends on capital market volumes 1.
The bank's shares are listed on Nasdaq Iceland, and its shareholder base is one of the largest among listed companies in Iceland. At year-end 2025 the bank had 25,302 shareholders, of whom 85.4% were domestic parties, and pension funds were the largest investor group with 42.2% of outstanding shares 1. After the sale of the government's remaining shares, the investor mix changed significantly 1.
Segments
Market context
The bank operates in the Icelandic market, where financial regulation is overseen by the Financial Supervisory Authority of the Central Bank of Iceland, and its shares are listed on Nasdaq Iceland 1. For 2026, management expects moderating inflation that would pave the way for further rate cuts, but reports show inflation has been more persistent than expected 1.
The net interest margin is expected to be around 3% over the medium term, and margin pressure could come from the CPI-related imbalance and the shrinking liquidity portfolio as capital optimisation continues 1. The mortgage market remains sensitive to Supreme Court rulings on variable-rate mortgages 1.
Trends
- Interest rate cuts and inflationmixed
The pace of rate cuts depends on inflation, which has been more persistent than expected; if inflation eases, margins could be supported 1.
- Capital market activitytailwind
Capital market activity has risen since the fourth quarter of 2025, and the bank believes this momentum will continue through the year, which could support asset management and brokerage income 1.
- Mortgage case lawheadwind
An October 2025 Supreme Court judgement found certain interest-rate change terms in a variable-rate mortgage invalid, which could influence other lenders; the bank adjusted its mortgage product offering 1.
- Capital optimisationtailwind
Capital optimisation is expected to continue in 2026, subject to market conditions and regulatory approvals, and capital could be allocated to growth or distributions to shareholders 1.
Competitive position
The supplied sources do not explicitly name the bank's competitors. They do show that Íslandsbanki is one of the largest companies in Iceland and operates in a supervised banking sector where lenders compete for mortgages and consumer credit 1.
Competitive pressure is also visible in mortgage case law, since rulings involving other lenders can shape how contracts are interpreted across the market 1. The bank notes the need to keep the mortgage market active for the benefit of customers and itself 1.
- Other Icelandic lenders
The source refers to other lenders in the context of mortgage case law, without naming them.
- Icelandic mortgage lenders
These lenders are mentioned as parties affected by Supreme Court rulings on variable interest rates.
- Consumer lending providers
The source mentions consumer loans in the regulatory context, without naming companies.
- Brokerage and asset management firms
Capital market activity is served by other operators, not named in the source.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202517 Feb 2026
- Annual report 202425 Feb 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Íslandsbanki hf. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.