olivLaw · European equity research
Leonardo - Società per azioni LDO.MI
Italy · Euronext Milan · ISIN IT0003856405 · Vertical: Listed companies from Italy
Leonardo is a European industrial group in aerospace, defence and security, with technologies in defence electronics, helicopters, aerostructures and space. In 2024 it reported new orders of 20.9 billion EUR and revenues of 17.8 billion EUR, and for 2025 it guides to higher revenues amid stronger demand for defence.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Leonardo - Società per azioni (LDO.MI) stock was 49.36 EUR (−3.45% on the day), with market capitalisation 28.4 bn EUR, P/E 26.5 on diluted EPS of 1.87 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.62%, beta 0.76, 52-week range 44.97–64.26 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 47.6
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 46.12 – 52.65
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.50 · band width 13.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 49.50 / 53.61
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.47 / 0.23
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +4.5% | −0.6% | +5.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −15.7% | −4.2% | −11.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | −10.1% | +4.3% | −14.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | +0.4% | +7.5% | −7.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | −2.3% | +9.9% | −12.2 pp | −6.1% |
| 3 years | +247.4% | +49.8% | +197.6 pp | +7.7% |
| 5 years | +656.7% | +42.8% | +613.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 13.1, median 13.5, max 13.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 15.3 bn | 17.8 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +16.2% |
| Net income | 658.0 m | 1.1 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +63.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.14 | 1.87 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +63.0% |
| net % | 4.3% | 6.0% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- 2.6 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- 2.4 bn EUR
- Net debt
- -183.0 m EUR
- Equity
- 10.2 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 33.7 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.23x
- Current ratio
- 0.96x
- ROE
- 11.4%
- ROA
- 3.3%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 15.3 bn | 17.8 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2025verified |
| Interest expense | 421.0 m | 389.0 m | esef· 18 Mar 2025verified |
| Income tax | 129.0 m | 289.0 m | esef· 18 Mar 2025verified |
| Net income | 658.0 m | 1.1 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.14 | 1.87 | esef· 18 Mar 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.14 | 0.31 | esef· 18 Mar 2025derived |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 2.4 bn | 2.6 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2025verified |
| Inventories | 5.7 bn | 6.5 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2025verified |
| Current assets | 16.4 bn | 17.9 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.5 bn | 2.8 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2025verified |
| Total assets | 30.7 bn | 33.7 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 2.9 bn | 2.4 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 17.0 bn | 18.7 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 22.1 bn | 23.5 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2025verified |
| Equity | 8.6 bn | 10.2 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 575.2 m | 575.9 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025derived |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 28.4 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
27% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 11.73 – 42.62 EUR.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E11.73 – 42.62 (Mid 24.72)20 companies used · median multiple 13.3x · quartiles 6.3x – 22.9xAC5.MI, ACE.MI, ADB.MI, AEF.MI, AMP.MI, ARN.MI, ASC.MI, BC.MI, BEC.MI, CAI.MI, CIR.MI, CLF.MI, CMB.MI, COM.MI, CRL.MI, CY4.MI, DEX.MI, DIA.MI, DLG.MI, DNR.MI
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate4.18 – 5.70 (Mid 4.82)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 6.0% | 49 (vs peers) | 23% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.0x | 13 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 26.5x | 32 (vs peers) | 38% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.6% | 9 (on a fixed band) | 23% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial13/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial49/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial9/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial32/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
LEONARDO - SOCIETA' PER AZIONI (LDO.MI). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 17.8 bn EUR in 2024; YoY growth 16.2%; net margin 6.0%; ROE 12.8%.
The estimated value range is 11.73–42.62 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 24.72 EUR, the price of 49.35 EUR leaves a potential of -49.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -99.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 1.0x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.6%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Italy · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LDO.MILeonardo - Societa' Per Azioni | 28.4 bn | 26.5 | 12.8% | 6.0% | +16.2% | +5% / +251% |
| DLG.MIDe' Longhi S.p.a. | 6.8 bn | 21.5 | 15.4% | 8.4% | +8.7% | +24% / +60% |
| ACE.MIAcea S.p.a. | 4.6 bn | 9.6 | 18.2% | 16.6% | +0.2% | −4% / +73% |
| DIA.MIDiasorin S.p.a. | 4.3 bn | 28.3 | 9.2% | 13.0% | +0.8% | +31% / −7% |
| CRL.MICarel Industries S.p.a. | 2.9 bn | 39.5 | 16.1% | 11.7% | +8.7% | +3% / +10% |
| AMP.MIAmplifon S.p.a. | 2.7 bn | 29.9 | 8.5% | 3.8% | −0.6% | −9% / −58% |
| CMB.MICembre S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 27.0 | 20.6% | 18.9% | +6.7% | +11% / +108% |
| COM.MIComer Industries S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 18.6 | 12.8% | 7.1% | −23.0% | +8% / +64% |
| DNR.MIIndustrie De Nora S.p.a. | 1.1 bn | 13.4 | 8.6% | 9.4% | +1.4% | −22% / −62% |
| ARN.MIAlerion Clean Power S.p.a. In Forma Abbreviata Alerion S.p.a. | 969.2 m | 10.4 | 23.5% | 41.0% | +1.8% | −5% / −23% |
| AVIO.MIAvio S.p.a. | 883.6 m | 86.8 | 2.1% | 1.8% | +21.5% | +18% / +291% |
| CIR.MICir S.p.a. - Compagnie Industriali Riunite | 783.3 m | 6.0 | 17.1% | 7.3% | +1.6% | +4% / +72% |
| ASC.MIAscopiave S.p.a. | 646.3 m | 18.0 | 4.2% | 17.5% | +13.4% | −8% / +33% |
| AC5.MIAcinque S.p.a. | 412.6 m | 19.6 | 4.1% | 3.6% | +0.2% | −6% / +8% |
| BAN.MIBasic Net S.p.a. | 348.0 m | — | -4.9% | -3.5% | +0.4% | −30% / +5% |
| ADB.MIAeroporto Guglielmo Marconi Di Bologna S.p.a. | 324.7 m | 13.1 | 11.1% | 13.7% | +9.2% | −2% / +12% |
| CAI.MICairo Communication S.p.a. | 289.2 m | 6.4 | 8.1% | 4.4% | −1.3% | −22% / +28% |
| ECNL.MIAquafil S.p.a. | 129.6 m | — | -3.2% | -0.9% | −3.9% | −1% / −52% |
| BEC.MIB&C Speakers S.p.a. | 118.7 m | 11.7 | 18.5% | 10.2% | −1.3% | −26% / −32% |
| ABT.MIAbitare In S.p.a. | 76.0 m | 276.0 | 0.4% | 0.4% | +39.8% | −6% / −47% |
| ELC.MIElica S.p.a. | 64.3 m | — | -7.8% | -2.2% | +1.9% | −34% / −48% |
| DEX.MIDexelance S.p.a. | 50.7 m | 2.8 | 11.0% | 5.4% | +12.6% | −63% / −78% |
| CLE.MIClass Editori S.p.a. | 35.1 m | — | -29.2% | -3.8% | −0.7% | −9% / +106% |
| CLF.MICaleffi - S.p.a. | 11.6 m | 5.2 | 10.9% | 3.8% | −2.5% | −4% / −10% |
| AEF.MIAeffe S.p.a. | 10.1 m | 0.5 | 21.9% | 7.7% | −21.3% | −59% / −86% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for LDO.MI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 32.25 Total return -34% · Per year -34% | 56.76 Total return 16% · Per year 16% | 85.14 Total return 73% · Per year 73% |
| 3 years | 38.26 Total return -21% · Per year -7% | 75.06 Total return 55% · Per year 16% | 122.60 Total return 152% · Per year 36% |
| 5 years | 45.38 Total return -5% · Per year -1% | 99.27 Total return 106% · Per year 16% | 176.54 Total return 264% · Per year 29% |
- Exit P/E± 18.77
- Net margin± 13.14
- Annual revenue growth± 9.80
- Annual dilution± 1.10
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Leonardo is a European industrial group in aerospace, defence and security, with technologies in defence electronics, helicopters, aerostructures and space. In 2024 it reported new orders of 20.9 billion EUR and revenues of 17.8 billion EUR, and for 2025 it guides to higher revenues amid stronger demand for defence 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Very large order backlog and long-term visibility on revenues.
- Strong position in defence electronics, with presence in both Europe and the United States.
- Improving cash generation and a lower net debt in 2024.
Weaknesses
- The aerostructures segment was affected by supply chain problems and operational difficulties.
- Dependence on government clients can make revenues sensitive to budgets and political decisions.
- Some long-term contracts could generate losses if unforeseen costs arise.
Opportunities
- Rising defence budgets in Europe and other regions could open new contracts.
- AI-based solutions and real-time data can extend the offer to new customers.
- A recovery of aerostructures production could improve margins as deliveries increase.
Threats
- Geopolitical conflicts can affect export markets and the safety of operations.
- Export restrictions under Italian and American rules can limit sales.
- New technology competitors and investment funds could accelerate competitive pressure.
Risks
- Geopolitical tensionshigh
The evolution of conflicts can create instability in markets where the group operates and affect staff safety.
- Dependence on public budgetsmedium
Spending decisions by governments and public institutions can change order volumes.
- Increased competitionmedium
New competitors with large resources could reduce market share and margins in civil segments.
- Export controlhigh
Restrictions or revocation of export authorisations can have significant negative effects on activity.
- Litigation and compliance caseslow
Legal proceedings and possible fraud allegations can have financial and reputational effects that are hard to anticipate.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If defence demand stays high, the large order backlog could support revenue and margin growth.
- A recovery in aerostructures and better cash generation could strengthen the group's balance sheet.
- The position in defence electronics and AI solutions could attract new contracts.
What would break the thesis
- If geopolitical tensions shift suddenly, orders could slow or projects could be reshaped.
- Pressure from new competitors could reduce margins in some segments.
- Difficulties in aerostructures could return if the supply chain remains fragile.
What to watch
- Delivery against revenue and EBITA guidance2025
- Evolution of new orders compared with the 2024 levelnext annual report
- Recovery of aerostructures production2025
- Effect of the UAS deconsolidation on results2025
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The Leonardo group, headquartered in Italy, operates in several main areas: Defence and Security Electronics, Helicopters, Aerostructures and Space, with solutions covering global monitoring, emergency management and infrastructure protection 1. Its order backlog reached 44 billion EUR in 2024, covering about 2.5 years of production 1.
The group aims at sustainable growth under its 2024-2028 Industrial Plan, with a focus on margin recovery and cash generation 1. Strategic joint ventures such as MBDA, Hensoldt and Thales Alenia Space complement the portfolio 1.
The 2024 reporting includes the full consolidation of the Telespazio Group from 1 January 2024, which makes comparisons with 2023 easier to read on a proforma basis 1.
Segments
Defence and Security Electronics
This segment was the main driver of orders and revenues in 2024, including through Leonardo DRS in the United States, and is described as the group's strongest area 1.
Aerostructures
The segment was hit by external difficulties, and the 2025 guidance expects a gradual recovery linked to higher deliveries requested by Boeing 1.
Helicopters
Helicopters contributed to the growth of orders and revenues, both in government and commercial markets 1.
Market context
Trends
- Rising defence spendingtailwind
European states and NATO are raising military budgets, which could support orders over the medium term 1.
- Geopolitical tensions and trademixed
Conflicts and new protectionist measures could disrupt supply chains and export markets 1.
- Competition from outside the sectorheadwind
Large technology firms and new players from other industries are entering defence, which could pressure margins 1.
- Artificial intelligence innovationtailwind
Use of AI and real-time data could open new markets for monitoring and crisis management 1.
Competitive position
The group faces growing competition especially in civil segments and in defence, where new players, sometimes backed by investment funds, are emerging 1. European and American defence rivals remain the main competitors 1.
- Lockheed MartinLMT
Major American defence and aerospace rival, part of the international competition in the sector.
- RTXRTX
American defence and aviation group, present in competition for military contracts and advanced systems.
- Airbus
European competitor in aerospace and space, relevant mainly in civil segments.
- Thales
European defence and security electronics group, a direct rival in the electronics segment.
News & filings
In the press
- Heath Ledger helyett akár Leonardo DiCaprio is lehetett volna Joker, ezért hiúsult megIndex.hu English (HU) · 06 Nov 2026 · EN
- Рынки акций Европы не показали единой динамики в четвергInterfax Russia (RU) · 06 Nov 2026 · RU
- Rezultate Conference League: Ajax câștigă cu 6-1, Atalanta a remizat cu Kairat Almaty, Steaua Roșie Belgrad bateInter EscaldesG4Media · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- Rezultate Conference League: Ajax câștigă cu 6-1, Freiburg se impune la Trabzon, Braga și Gent remizeazăMediafax · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- Euronaval 2026 – Manned brain, unmanned muscle: ST Engineering’s MRV makes its European debutEuropean Defence Review · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- Teren de peste 40.000 mp lângă Autostrada A1, scos la licitație în cadrul procedurii de faliment a Leonardo SRLAntena 3 CNN · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- Euronaval 2026 – Fincantieri unveils the multi-mission modular vessel (MMMV): one hull, many missionsEuropean Defence Review · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- MBDA plans to fly ‘fat’ hypersonic interceptor demonstrator before end-2029Defense News (US, EN) · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Рынки акций Европы в среду закрылись уверенным ростомInterfax Russia (RU) · 05 Nov 2026 · RU
- Premierul Luca Niculescu, întâlnire cu investitorii străini: Principalul obiectiv al Executivului este relansarea economiei. Planuri pentru a aborda mai articulat diplomația economicăEconomedia · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- Primul lot al Argentinei din epoca post-Messi! Reveniri și debuturi la naționala lui Scaloni - Sport.roSurge — Google News · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- The US Army's anti-drone laser is taking shape. A supplier for key components has been chosenDefence24 (PL, EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- ► Fincantieri and Leonardo sign an agreement to further strengthen the role of Orizzonte Sistemi NavaliEuropean Defence Review · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- Argentina a anunţat primul lot din era post-Messi pentru meciurile amicale din noiembrie - News.roSurge — Google News · 03 Nov 2026 · RO
- Dragoș Săvulescu și Angela Martini au divorțat. Fosta Miss Universe Albania a confirmat oficial despărțireaLibertatea.ro · 03 Nov 2026 · RO
- Financial Intelligence organizează luni, 2 noiembrie, cea de-a șaptea ediție a evenimentului BANKING FORUM - AgerpresAgerpres · 03 Nov 2026 · RO
- Leonardo DRS selected by AV for U.S. Army’s Enduring-High Energy Laser production programEuropean Defence Review · 02 Nov 2026 · RO
- Ce ascunde conflictul Zenga - Chivu? Adrian Mutu nu s-a ferit de cuvinte - Digi SportSurge — Google News · 02 Nov 2026 · RO
- Naval Group: first at-sea firings from Rampart multi-weapon launcher with Thales rocketsEuropean Defence Review · 02 Nov 2026 · RO
- Cristi Chivu a intrat în istoria lui Inter, dar într-un mod negativ, după înfrângerea cu AC Milan. Borna pe care antrenorul român nu şi-o dorea - OrangesportSurge — Google News · 01 Nov 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202418 Mar 2025
- Annual report 202424 Sept 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2024-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Leonardo - Società per azioni · 31 Dec 2024
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.