olivLaw · European equity research
Signify N.V. LIGHT.AS
Netherlands · Euronext Amsterdam · ISIN NL0011821392 · Vertical: Listed companies from Netherlands
Signify N.V. is a lighting company that builds its strategy on energy efficiency and low-carbon products as the economy shifts toward low emissions. The company aims to double its revenues from circular products, systems and services, targeting 32% by the end of 2025.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Signify N.V. (LIGHT.AS) stock was 15.67 EUR (−0.70% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.9 bn EUR, P/E 7.7 on diluted EPS of 2.03 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 9.96%, beta 0.81, 52-week range 13.97–21.88 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 60.4
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 13.64 – 16.11
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.82 · band width 16.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 15.10 / 17.68
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.18 / 0.06
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +5.2% | −0.6% | +5.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | +2.4% | −4.2% | +6.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | −21.6% | +4.3% | −25.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | −25.2% | +7.5% | −32.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | −21.7% | +9.9% | −31.6 pp | −0.2% |
| 3 years | −38.9% | +49.8% | −88.8 pp | +2.2% |
| 5 years | −62.2% | +42.8% | −105.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 8.4, median 10.3, max 19.1; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.7 bn | 6.1 bn | 5.8 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −8.4% | −6.2% |
| Net income | 203.0 m | 328.0 m | 254.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +61.6% | −22.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.59 | 2.57 | 2.03 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +61.6% | −21.0% |
| net % | 3.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% |
| Free cash flow | 645.0 m | 463.0 m | 463.0 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 621.0 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 1.1 bn EUR
- Net debt
- 469.0 m EUR
- Equity
- 2.8 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 6.7 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.39x
- Current ratio
- 1.17x
- ROE
- 8.4%
- ROA
- 3.6%
- FCF margin
- 8.0%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.7 bn | 6.1 bn | 5.8 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 4.1 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.5 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 2.6 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.3 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Research & development | 308.0 m | 266.0 m | 250.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 369.0 m | 477.0 m | 383.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 134.0 m | 124.0 m | 83.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 268.0 m | 394.0 m | 321.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 53.0 m | 60.0 m | 62.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 203.0 m | 328.0 m | 254.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.59 | 2.57 | 2.03 | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 127.3 m | 127.5 m | 124.8 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.67 | 1.55 | 1.56 | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.2 bn | 633.0 m | 621.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 894.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | 929.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 3.4 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.6 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 2.8 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.6 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 641.0 m | 608.0 m | 511.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 8.0 bn | 7.5 bn | 6.7 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.4 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 3.0 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.2 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 2.9 bn | 3.3 bn | 2.8 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 126.1 m | 126.2 m | 123.3 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 696.0 m | 514.0 m | 531.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 51.0 m | 51.0 m | 68.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 645.0 m ≈ | 463.0 m ≈ | 463.0 m ≈ | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -115.0 m | -72.0 m | -110.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -67.0 m | -970.0 m | -415.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 210.0 m | 221.0 m | 203.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 7.0 m | 14.0 m | 154.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 80 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.9 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation97
- Balance sheet41
- Returns100
- Quality75
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 21.22 – 103.34 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)55.32 – 103.34 (Mid 71.99)WACC 6.9% · starting FCFF 530.0 m EUR · terminal value share of EV 78%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E21.43 – 52.10 (Mid 29.45)16 companies used · median multiple 14.5x · quartiles 10.6x – 25.7xAALB.AS, ACOMO.AS, AD.AS, ADYEN.AS, AKZA.AS, ARCAD.AS, ASM.AS, ASML.AS, AXS.AS, BAMNB.AS, BNJ.AS, CRBN.AS, CTAC.AS, ECMPA.AS, FFARM.AS, HAL.AS
- Dividend discount (DDM)21.22 – 28.93 (Mid 24.48)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Attractive profile · Score 80/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 8.8% | 65 (vs peers) | 17% |
| Net margin · Quality | 4.4% | 67 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 182.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 4.6x | 48 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.2x | 31 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 7.7x | 95 (vs peers) | 17% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 24.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 18.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 43.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet41/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality75/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation97/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
SIGNIFY N.V. (LIGHT.AS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 5.8 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth -6.2%; net margin 4.4%; ROE 8.7%.
The estimated value range is 21.43–52.10 EUR per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 29.45 EUR, the price of 15.67 EUR leaves a potential of 88.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 46.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 80/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 182.3%
- P/E (TTM): 7.7x
- FCF yield: 24.0%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 18.5%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 43.8%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Netherlands · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML.ASASML Holding N.V. | 485.6 bn | 47.6 | 44.2% | 31.3% | +15.6% | +38% / +101% |
| DSFIR.ASDSM-Firmenich AG | 33.7 bn | 120.5 | 1.2% | 2.2% | +20.4% | +60% / +30% |
| AD.ASKoninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V. | 31.2 bn | 13.9 | 15.3% | 2.5% | +3.4% | −3% / +30% |
| ASM.ASASM International N.V. | 31.2 bn | 43.3 | 18.7% | 22.8% | +8.2% | +34% / +35% |
| ADYEN.ASAdyen N.V. | 28.1 bn | 26.6 | 22.3% | 40.1% | +18.9% | −33% / −17% |
| HAL.ASHAL Trust | 15.5 bn | 9.7 | 10.5% | 12.8% | +1.2% | +22% / +47% |
| EXO.ASExor N.V. | 15.0 bn | — | -10.6% | — | −100.0% | +1% / −18% |
| BESI.ASBE Semiconductor Industries N.V. | 11.2 bn | 84.9 | 28.7% | 22.3% | −2.7% | +8% / +10% |
| AKZA.ASAkzo Nobel N.V. | 10.7 bn | 17.0 | 13.8% | 6.3% | −5.2% | +12% / −11% |
| AALB.ASAalberts N.V. | 4.5 bn | 25.4 | 7.2% | 5.7% | −5.3% | +48% / +13% |
| ARCAD.ASArcadis N.V. | 4.2 bn | 20.2 | 18.3% | 4.3% | −2.4% | +24% / +2% |
| BNJ.ASBanijay Group N.V. | 3.4 bn | 13.8 | 343.8% | 5.1% | +1.6% | −11% / −8% |
| BAMNB.ASKoninklijke BAM Groep N.V. | 3.3 bn | 41.8 | 9.1% | 1.3% | +2.9% | +47% / +400% |
| BFIT.ASBasic-Fit N.V. | 2.0 bn | 138.2 | 3.6% | 1.0% | +16.9% | +7% / +16% |
| LIGHT.ASSignify N.V. | 1.9 bn | 7.7 | 8.7% | 4.4% | −6.2% | −23% / −41% |
| CRBN.ASCorbion N.V. | 1.6 bn | 8.3 | 27.3% | 14.9% | +1.9% | +40% / +55% |
| ECMPA.ASEurocommercial Properties N.V. | 1.4 bn | 11.2 | 5.9% | 45.4% | +4.2% | −4% / +19% |
| FUR.ASFugro N.V. | 985.3 m | — | -1.5% | -1.1% | −18.8% | −0% / −49% |
| ACOMO.ASAcomo N.V. | 685.9 m | 15.2 | 10.7% | 3.3% | +7.6% | −3% / +37% |
| FAST.ASFastned B.V. | 663.0 m | — | -28.2% | -21.7% | +66.1% | +60% / +25% |
| FFARM.ASForFarmers N.V. | 479.4 m | 9.6 | 14.5% | 1.6% | +14.8% | +22% / +123% |
| BRNL.ASBrunel International N.V. | 383.2 m | 125.5 | 1.0% | 0.3% | −10.8% | −6% / −29% |
| ENVI.ASEnvipco Holding N.V. | 224.1 m | — | -12.7% | -11.9% | −20.8% | −25% / +47% |
| ALFEN.ASAlfen N.V. | 219.8 m | — | -0.1% | -0.0% | −10.7% | −4% / −78% |
| CMCOM.ASCM.com N.V. | 192.5 m | — | -22.2% | -1.5% | −5.4% | +23% / −30% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for LIGHT.AS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 8.50 Total return -39% · Per year -39% | 15.11 Total return 6% · Per year 6% | 22.86 Total return 57% · Per year 57% |
| 3 years | 6.75 Total return -38% · Per year -15% | 13.63 Total return 14% · Per year 5% | 22.86 Total return 81% · Per year 22% |
| 5 years | 5.36 Total return -37% · Per year -9% | 12.30 Total return 22% · Per year 4% | 22.86 Total return 104% · Per year 15% |
- Exit P/E± 3.41
- Net margin± 2.39
- Annual revenue growth± 2.15
- Annual dilution± 0.20
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Signify N.V. is a lighting company that builds its strategy on energy efficiency and low-carbon products as the economy shifts toward low emissions. The company aims to double its revenues from circular products, systems and services, targeting 32% by the end of 2025 1.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
- Demand for connected lighting and circular services could grow as customers seek sustainable solutions 1.
- The new Signify Circle framework could expand revenue from circular business models in the coming period 1.
- Innovation in smaller and lighter products can meet efficiency and recyclability requirements 1.
Risks
- Supply chain disruptionmedium
Climate and geographic risks could disrupt the supply chain, although the company currently considers them not material given its dual sourcing strategy 1.
- Geopolitical riskshigh
International trade conditions, sanctions and regional instability were discussed at board level as strategic risk factors 1.
- Cyber securityhigh
Cyber risks are addressed in dedicated board sessions and could affect continuity of digital operations 1.
- Leadership changesmedium
The transition to new leadership and the reorganisation of the structure could influence strategy execution in the short term 1.
- Physical climate riskslow
Flooding was identified as a material risk for 2025, while assessments show a high level of site-level preparedness 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand for energy-efficient products and circular services keeps growing, the company could benefit from a portfolio well placed for the energy transition 1.
- The dual sourcing strategy and risk assessment processes can support operational continuity 1.
- The new Signify Circle framework could help shift the business model toward recurring service revenue 1.
What would break the thesis
- If conventional technologies keep losing sales, revenue from these products could decline faster than revenue from newer segments 1.
- Geopolitical tensions and unstable international trade could raise costs or slow activity 1.
- Recent leadership changes could slow strategy implementation if the transition is not well managed 1.
What to watch
- Progress toward the target of 32% of revenue from circular products, systems and services2025 (annual report)
- Evolution of the share of secondary and biological materials in inflows2026
- Implementation of the new Signify Circle framework and its 2026-2030 objectives2026-2030
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Signify bases its business model on sustainability and energy efficiency, with a portfolio of low-energy lighting products 1. The company applies circular economy principles, including services, repair, refurbishment and recycling, and products are designed to be used, serviced and upgraded over the long term 1. Leadership changed in 2025, the new chief executive being chosen through a succession process led by the governance committee 1.
Segments
Market context
The company expects consumer and business demand for low-carbon products to increase, and regulatory requirements for efficiency to continue 1. The shift of power grids toward renewable energy could make conventional, less efficient technologies harder to sell, while creating opportunities for innovative low-consumption products 1.
Trends
- Shift to renewable powertailwind
Expansion of renewable-based power grids requires more energy efficiency and additional grid capacity, which favours modern lighting products 1.
- Energy efficiency regulationtailwind
Legislative requirements on low emissions and energy efficiency could keep tightening, supporting the company's efficient product portfolio 1.
- Decline of conventional technologiesheadwind
Selling less efficient lighting technologies is becoming harder, which can reduce revenue from older products 1.
- Geopolitical and trade tensionsmixed
The supervisory board reviewed international trade conditions, sanctions and regional instability as factors that can influence strategy execution 1.
Competitive position
The available sources do not name direct competitors in detail 1. The company operates in a lighting industry where energy-efficient and connected solutions are increasingly important 1.
- Lighting manufacturers
The supplied source does not name specific competitors, so a direct comparison is limited 1.
- Energy efficiency solution providers
Not identified in the source, so comparison is restricted to the annual report content 1.
- Connected lighting companies
Connected lighting is described as an innovation area for the company, but the source names no other players 1.
- Lighting-as-a-service operators
The LaaS model is described as a strategic direction, without details on competitors in the source 1.
News & filings
In the press
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202504 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202404 Mar 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Signify N.V. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.