olivLaw · European equity research
MAIRE S.p.A. MAIRE.MI
Italy · Euronext Milan · ISIN IT0004931058 · Vertical: Listed companies from Italy
MAIRE is an Italian group of engineering and technology businesses for the energy transition, made up of NEXTCHEM (proprietary technologies) and TECNIMONT (large-scale EPC projects). Its order backlog reached 12,730.7 million EUR at 31 December 2025, and its 2026-2035 strategic plan targets consolidated revenue above 13 billion EUR by 2035.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, MAIRE S.p.A. (MAIRE.MI) stock was 12.91 EUR (−1.68% on the day), with market capitalisation 4.2 m EUR, P/E 0.0 on diluted EPS of 798.00 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2,850.63%, beta 1.11, 52-week range 11.81–16.52 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 55.9
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 11.82 – 13.32
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.73 · band width 12.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 12.45 / 13.77
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.15 / 0.09
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +3.1% | −0.6% | +3.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | +3.0% | −4.2% | +7.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | −17.2% | +4.3% | −21.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | −1.1% | +7.5% | −8.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | −1.1% | +9.9% | −11.0 pp | −6.1% |
| 3 years | +180.5% | +49.8% | +130.7 pp | +7.7% |
| 5 years | +219.1% | +42.8% | +176.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 0.0, median 0.0, max 12.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.3 bn | 5.9 bn | 7.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +38.5% | +20.3% |
| Net income | 125.4 m | 198.7 m | 260.3 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +58.5% | +31.0% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.38 | 605.00 | 798.00 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +158,277.0% | +31.9% |
| net % | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.7% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.4 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 773.8 m EUR
- Total assets
- 8.2 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.14x
- ROE
- 36.8%
- ROA
- 3.3%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.3 bn | 5.9 bn | 7.1 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 216.5 m | 321.6 m | 431.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 70.3 m | 71.5 m | 91.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 186.2 m | 311.3 m | 415.4 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 56.7 m | 98.9 m | 130.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 125.4 m | 198.7 m | 260.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.38 | 605.00 | 798.00 | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.12 | 249.95 | 368.02 | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 915.5 m | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 9.2 m | 10.3 m | 12.6 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 5.5 bn | 6.5 bn | 7.1 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 48.6 m | 53.7 m | 69.2 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 327.2 m | 368.1 m | 364.7 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 137.8 m | 152.5 m | 191.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 6.3 bn | 7.4 bn | 8.2 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 4.9 bn | 5.8 bn | 6.3 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 579.7 m | 641.1 m | 773.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 328.2 m | 328.4 k | 326.1 k | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 369.7 m | 284.9 m | 325.5 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Investing cash flow | -59.0 m | -51.6 m | -66.2 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -155.8 m | 4.9 m | -40.5 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 40.7 m | 82.1 m | 120.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 4.2 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
33% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 5,005.01 – 18,235.00 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E5,019.60 – 18,235.00 (Mid 10,578.08)20 companies used · median multiple 13.3x · quartiles 6.3x – 22.9xAC5.MI, ACE.MI, ADB.MI, AEF.MI, AMP.MI, ARN.MI, ASC.MI, BC.MI, BEC.MI, CAI.MI, CIR.MI, CLF.MI, CMB.MI, COM.MI, CRL.MI, CY4.MI, DEX.MI, DIA.MI, DLG.MI, DNR.MI
- Dividend discount (DDM)5,005.01 – 6,825.02 (Mid 5,775.02)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 3.7% | 36 (vs peers) | 19% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 4.7x | 49 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.1x | 28 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 0.0x | 100 (vs peers) | 31% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2,850.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet41/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial36/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
MAIRE S.P.A. (MAIRE.MI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 7.1 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth 20.3%; net margin 3.7%; ROE 39.8%.
The estimated value range is 5,012.31–12,530.01 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 8,176.55 EUR, the price of 12.91 EUR leaves a potential of 63,235.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 99.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- P/E (TTM): 0.0x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 2,850.6%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 1.1x
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Italy · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLG.MIDe' Longhi S.p.a. | 6.8 bn | 21.5 | 15.4% | 8.4% | +8.7% | +24% / +60% |
| ACE.MIAcea S.p.a. | 4.6 bn | 9.6 | 18.2% | 16.6% | +0.2% | −4% / +73% |
| DIA.MIDiasorin S.p.a. | 4.3 bn | 28.3 | 9.2% | 13.0% | +0.8% | +31% / −7% |
| CRL.MICarel Industries S.p.a. | 2.9 bn | 39.5 | 16.1% | 11.7% | +8.7% | +3% / +10% |
| AMP.MIAmplifon S.p.a. | 2.7 bn | 29.9 | 8.5% | 3.8% | −0.6% | −9% / −58% |
| CMB.MICembre S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 27.0 | 20.6% | 18.9% | +6.7% | +11% / +108% |
| COM.MIComer Industries S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 18.6 | 12.8% | 7.1% | −23.0% | +8% / +64% |
| DNR.MIIndustrie De Nora S.p.a. | 1.1 bn | 13.4 | 8.6% | 9.4% | +1.4% | −22% / −62% |
| ARN.MIAlerion Clean Power S.p.a. In Forma Abbreviata Alerion S.p.a. | 969.2 m | 10.4 | 23.5% | 41.0% | +1.8% | −5% / −23% |
| AVIO.MIAvio S.p.a. | 883.6 m | 86.8 | 2.1% | 1.8% | +21.5% | +18% / +291% |
| CIR.MICir S.p.a. - Compagnie Industriali Riunite | 783.3 m | 6.0 | 17.1% | 7.3% | +1.6% | +4% / +72% |
| ASC.MIAscopiave S.p.a. | 646.3 m | 18.0 | 4.2% | 17.5% | +13.4% | −8% / +33% |
| AC5.MIAcinque S.p.a. | 412.6 m | 19.6 | 4.1% | 3.6% | +0.2% | −6% / +8% |
| BAN.MIBasic Net S.p.a. | 348.0 m | — | -4.9% | -3.5% | +0.4% | −30% / +5% |
| ADB.MIAeroporto Guglielmo Marconi Di Bologna S.p.a. | 324.7 m | 13.1 | 11.1% | 13.7% | +9.2% | −2% / +12% |
| CAI.MICairo Communication S.p.a. | 289.2 m | 6.4 | 8.1% | 4.4% | −1.3% | −22% / +28% |
| ECNL.MIAquafil S.p.a. | 129.6 m | — | -3.2% | -0.9% | −3.9% | −1% / −52% |
| BEC.MIB&C Speakers S.p.a. | 118.7 m | 11.7 | 18.5% | 10.2% | −1.3% | −26% / −32% |
| ABT.MIAbitare In S.p.a. | 76.0 m | 276.0 | 0.4% | 0.4% | +39.8% | −6% / −47% |
| ELC.MIElica S.p.a. | 64.3 m | — | -7.8% | -2.2% | +1.9% | −34% / −48% |
| DEX.MIDexelance S.p.a. | 50.7 m | 2.8 | 11.0% | 5.4% | +12.6% | −63% / −78% |
| CLE.MIClass Editori S.p.a. | 35.1 m | — | -29.2% | -3.8% | −0.7% | −9% / +106% |
| CLF.MICaleffi - S.p.a. | 11.6 m | 5.2 | 10.9% | 3.8% | −2.5% | −4% / −10% |
| AEF.MIAeffe S.p.a. | 10.1 m | 0.5 | 21.9% | 7.7% | −21.3% | −59% / −86% |
| BC.MIBrunello Cucinelli S.p.a. | 6.2 m | 0.0 | 26.5% | 75,526.1% | 0.0% | −5% / +15% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MAIRE.MI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 8.44 Total return 2,449% · Per year 2,449% | 14.85 Total return 3,293% · Per year 3,293% | 22.27 Total return 4,006% · Per year 4,006% |
| 3 years | 10.01 Total return 8,112% · Per year 335% | 19.63 Total return 11,436% · Per year 387% | 32.07 Total return 14,468% · Per year 426% |
| 5 years | 11.87 Total return 14,830% · Per year 172% | 25.97 Total return 22,204% · Per year 195% | 46.18 Total return 29,532% · Per year 212% |
- Exit P/E± 4.91
- Net margin± 3.44
- Annual revenue growth± 2.56
- Annual dilution± 0.29
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
MAIRE is an Italian group of engineering and technology businesses for the energy transition, made up of NEXTCHEM (proprietary technologies) and TECNIMONT (large-scale EPC projects). Its order backlog reached 12,730.7 million EUR at 31 December 2025 1, and its 2026-2035 strategic plan targets consolidated revenue above 13 billion EUR by 2035 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- A very large order backlog and revenue concentrated in a few large contracts, which gives medium-term visibility 1.
- Market-ready proprietary technologies in the NEXTCHEM division, with high margins and low execution risk, according to the report 1.
- An asset-light model and a broad presence across more than forty countries, which allows projects to scale quickly 1.
Weaknesses
- High dependence on a small number of contracts and clients, so that interruption of a single contract could affect group results.
- Geographic concentration of the portfolio in the Middle East exposes the group to political and security risks in the region 1.
- Large-scale EPC projects can generate extra costs from delays or from underperforming subcontractors.
Opportunities
- Rising energy demand and critical infrastructure could bring new contracts to the engineering division 1.
- Development of decarbonisation technologies, such as circular methanol and fuel cells, could open new markets.
- If modular nuclear projects advance to final investment, the group could extend its engineering activity in this field 1.
Threats
- Uncertainty about trade tariffs between the US and the EU could affect procurement costs and export competitiveness 1.
- Geopolitical events in the Middle East could disrupt supply chains and delay deliveries on sites 1.
- Industrial investment is cyclical and sensitive to interest rates and oil prices, which could reduce new orders 1.
Risks
- Contract concentrationhigh
A small number of contracts generates most of the revenue. If one of them were cancelled or interrupted, the economic position could be affected 1.
- Geopolitical risk in the Middle Easthigh
The report indicates that a significant part of the orders is in the region. A prolonged conflict could delay material deliveries 1.
- Trade tariffsmedium
US-EU tariff measures remain uncertain. The company says the direct impact is small but indirect cost effects could arise 1.
- Subcontractors and suppliersmedium
Delays or poor quality from subcontractors could generate extra costs and damage claims from clients 1.
- Cyclicality of investmentlow
Demand for industrial projects depends on economic growth and financing conditions, and an unfavourable environment could reduce new orders 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- A very large order backlog and the strategic plan to 2035 could provide visibility on revenue growth, if project execution remains solid 1.
- The NEXTCHEM division has proprietary technologies with high margins, and its growth could lead to an increasing contribution to group EBITDA 1.
- If demand for energy and decarbonisation keeps growing, projects in methanol, synthetic fuels and modular nuclear could expand the order base.
What would break the thesis
- Concentration on a few large contracts and in a politically unstable region could make results very volatile if delays or cancellations occur.
- Long-term plans depend on contracts not yet signed, and investment decisions could be postponed or cancelled.
- Trade tariffs and rising material costs could reduce the margins of EPC projects, where execution risk is higher.
What to watch
- Final investment decision for the Pacifico Mexinol projectQ4 2025
- Delivery of the 2026 revenue and EBITDA guidance for both divisions2026
- Development of the possible capital or market transaction for NEXTCHEMnext 10-K
- Impact of US-EU tariffs and the Middle East situation on supply chains2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
MAIRE S.p.A. is a joint-stock company incorporated in Italy that acts as the holding company of its group, as the annual report states 1. The group operates mainly through two business units: Sustainable Technology Solutions, led by NEXTCHEM, which sells technology licences and basic engineering packages, and Integrated E&C Solutions, where TECNIMONT executes large-scale EPC projects. The company says it operates in about 45 countries 1.
Management describes the model as asset-light: MAIRE positions itself as a global engineering partner able to manage complex projects and scale technologies quickly 1. For Sustainable Technology Solutions the report indicates small volumes but significantly high margins and a low level of execution risk 1.
During 2025 the group announced contracts and memoranda in several regions, including Mexico, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, the United Arab Emirates and Germany, as well as collaborations in modular nuclear and methanol-based fuels 1.
Market context
The annual report describes structural growth in energy demand, driven by population, living standards and electrification and artificial intelligence. The company expects installed capacity to expand to about 20 TW by 2035 1. The markets it serves are, however, cyclical and depend on public and private investment, economic growth and variables such as interest rates or oil prices 1.
The report also notes that the largest share of the order backlog is concentrated in the Middle East, while the group is trying to diversify its clients and regions, especially in Africa and Kazakhstan 1.
Trends
- Expansion of global energy capacitytailwind
The strategic plan stresses rising energy demand, boosted by electrification and artificial intelligence, which could create opportunities for infrastructure projects and critical materials 1.
- Decarbonisation of chemicals and shippingtailwind
Low-carbon methanol and synthetic fuels are presented as solutions for hard-to-abate sectors; the Pacifico Mexinol project and methanol fuels for shipping illustrate this direction 1.
- Tariffs in US-EU trade relationsheadwind
The report notes uncertainty over tariffs between the US and the EU. The company says direct exposure is limited by its EPC model and minimal US presence, but that later developments could affect procurement costs 1.
- Investment in modular nuclear and clean energymixed
The group has signed agreements for advanced modular reactors and SMRs and for data centres powered by low-carbon energy. If these projects reach final investment decisions, they could expand the engineering business 1.
Competitive position
The annual report does not name direct competitors of the group. The source documents do not give a clear list of rivals, so this information cannot be confirmed from the sources provided 1.
The company does, however, mention partners and contractors it works with on projects, such as Samsung E&A as EPC contractor for Pacifico Mexinol and Siemens Energy for fuel cells 1.
- Samsung E&A
Named in the report as EPC contractor for the Pacifico Mexinol project, so more a partner than a direct rival.
- Siemens Energy
Named as partner for methanol fuel cells, in the integration with onboard systems.
- Samruk-Kazyna
Kazakh sovereign fund, partner in a cooperation memorandum for energy infrastructure.
- SOCAR
Azerbaijani state oil company, with which the group has a long-standing collaboration in renewable energy.
News & filings
In the press
- EN DIRECT Guerre en Ukraine : La région de Moscou visée par une attaque de 630 drones , selon le maire de la capitale …Surge — GDELT DOC · 22 Oct 2026 · RO
- Montargis : Laudit financier sur la ville ne parle ni de faute , ni de catastrophe se réjouit lex - maire Benoît DigeonSurge — GDELT DOC · 02 Oct 2026 · RO
- «Еврохим» обвинил Maire в искажении фактов о решении по спору в ЛондонеRBC News (RU business+politics) · 02 Sept 2026 · RU
- Maire заявила о победе над «Еврохимом» по иску из-за договора на $1 млрдRBC News (RU business+politics) · 02 Sept 2026 · RU
- Bruno Le Maire : “Une campagne, c’est tripal, c’est pas cérébral.”Politico EU · 03 Jul 2026 · RO
- Prezidențiale 2027 în Franța: noua radicalizare a lui Bruno Le MaireG4Media · 24 Jun 2026 · RO
- Кассация подтвердила взыскание 171 млрд руб. с Tecnimont в пользу «ЕвроХима»Kommersant (RU) · 22 Jun 2026 · RU
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202507 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202424 Sept 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / MAIRE S.p.A. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.