olivLaw · European equity research
Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG MMK.VI
Austria · Wiener Börse · ISIN AT0000938204 · Vertical: Listed companies from Austria
Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG is an Austrian maker of cartonboard and packaging, with packaging and carton divisions, and its 2025 annual report sets out a detailed risk framework for an industrial group of this kind. The group offers a useful context for investors following how it manages key staff, finance and information technology.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK.VI) stock was 67.70 EUR (+2.89% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.3 bn EUR, P/E 17.5 on diluted EPS of 3.86 EUR over the last 12 months, beta 0.88, 52-week range 64.10–102.00 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 53.3
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 63.91 – 67.02
- above the upper band · %B 1.22 · band width 4.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 70.12 / 81.91
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -1.24 / -1.79
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −0.3% | +0.4% | −0.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −23.5% | −3.3% | −20.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −15.4% | +4.0% | −19.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | −27.1% | +8.1% | −35.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | −8.5% | +10.7% | −19.2 pp | +4.9% |
| 3 years | −41.8% | +50.1% | −91.9 pp | +11.8% |
| 5 years | −62.2% | +43.6% | −105.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 14.7, median 24.1, max 29.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.2 bn | 4.1 bn | 3.9 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −2.0% | −4.8% |
| Net income | 87.2 m | 108.2 m | 75.6 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +24.1% | −30.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 4.36 | 5.41 | 3.86 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +24.1% | −28.7% |
| net % | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.9% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 498.4 m EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 2.1 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 4.5 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.58x
- ROE
- 3.6%
- ROA
- 1.6%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.2 bn | 4.1 bn | 3.9 bn | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 197.6 m | 190.0 m | 221.0 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 221.4 m | 228.0 m | 219.7 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 419.0 m ≈ | 418.1 m ≈ | 440.7 m ≈ | esef· 09 Apr 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 58.3 m | 82.9 m | 53.4 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 136.7 m | 114.3 m | 145.7 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 47.6 m | 3.8 m | 68.7 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 87.2 m | 108.2 m | 75.6 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 4.36 | 5.41 | 3.86 | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 757.5 m | 520.9 m | 498.4 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 582.6 m | 556.3 m | 511.3 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.9 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.5 bn | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.1 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 5.1 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.5 bn | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 970.5 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 3.1 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.4 bn | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 20.0 m | 20.0 m | 19.6 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.3 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
27% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 43.53 – 84.70 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E43.53 – 84.70 (Mid 63.15)24 companies used · median multiple 16.4x · quartiles 11.3x – 21.9x1AST.VI, ACAG.VI, AMAG.VI, ANDR.VI, BMAG.VI, CPI.VI, DOC.VI, ETS.VI, EVN.VI, FAA.VI, FACC.VI, FQT.VI, OMV.VI, POS.VI, POST.VI, PYT.VI, ROS.VI, SBO.VI, STR.VI, SWUT.VI, TKA.VI, VER.VI, VOE.VI, WIE.VI
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 1.9% | 36 (vs peers) | 23% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 4.1x | 41 (on a fixed band) | 23% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.6x | 65 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 17.5x | 42 (vs peers) | 38% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet50/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial36/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial42/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Mayr-Melnhof Karton Aktiengesellschaft (MMK.VI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.9 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth -4.8%; net margin 1.9%; ROE 3.6%.
The estimated value range is 43.53–84.70 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 63.15 EUR, the price of 67.70 EUR leaves a potential of -6.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -7.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Austria · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OMV.VIOmv Aktiengesellschaft | 35.4 bn | 23.3 | 8.9% | 6.3% | −7.2% | +52% / +85% |
| VER.VIVerbund AG | 24.1 bn | 16.2 | 14.7% | 18.6% | −2.8% | +9% / −21% |
| STR.VIStrabag Se | 11.9 bn | 12.9 | 17.2% | 4.9% | +7.4% | +33% / +171% |
| ANDR.VIAndritz AG | 8.0 bn | 17.6 | 19.3% | 5.8% | −5.2% | +32% / +65% |
| VOE.VIvoestalpine AG | 7.2 bn | 17.1 | 5.7% | 2.8% | −4.3% | +13% / +62% |
| EVN.VIEvn AG | 5.4 bn | 12.4 | 6.9% | 14.6% | +3.8% | +14% / +12% |
| ATS.VIAT & S Austria Technologie & Systemtechnik Aktiengesellschaft | 3.0 bn | — | -2.4% | -1.4% | +12.7% | +301% / +428% |
| DOC.VIDO & CO Aktiengesellschaft | 2.4 bn | 22.2 | 24.0% | 4.3% | +7.1% | +12% / +70% |
| CPI.VICPI Europe AG | 2.2 bn | 4.2 | 12.2% | 68.2% | −6.7% | +0% / −17% |
| POST.VIÖsterreichische Post Aktiengesellschaft | 2.2 bn | 16.3 | 18.3% | 4.3% | −2.6% | +5% / +2% |
| WIE.VIWienerberger AG | 1.9 bn | 11.5 | 5.9% | 3.6% | +1.2% | −41% / −33% |
| LNZ.VILenzing Aktiengesellschaft | 1.7 bn | — | -11.8% | -5.2% | −2.3% | −51% / −67% |
| MMK.VIMayr-Melnhof Karton Aktiengesellschaft | 1.3 bn | 17.5 | 3.6% | 1.9% | −4.8% | −19% / −40% |
| POS.VIPorr AG | 1.2 bn | 10.8 | 12.9% | 1.8% | +1.7% | +6% / +168% |
| AMAG.VIAMAG Austria Metall AG | 1.1 bn | 33.6 | 4.7% | 2.3% | +2.1% | +35% / +20% |
| BMAG.VIPIERER Mobility AG | 1.1 bn | 1.8 | 638.9% | 58.9% | −46.3% | +86% / −47% |
| FQT.VIFrequentis AG | 830.6 m | 29.5 | 15.5% | 4.9% | +20.8% | −9% / +122% |
| ETS.VIEuroTeleSites AG | 730.3 m | 21.9 | 8.8% | 11.9% | +3.7% | −7% / +31% |
| AGR.VIAGRANA Beteiligungs-Aktiengesellschaft | 729.2 m | — | -3.6% | -1.2% | −7.9% | −2% / −14% |
| FACC.VIFacc AG | 607.0 m | 28.7 | 9.1% | 2.2% | +11.3% | +23% / +129% |
| ROS.VIRosenbauer International AG | 600.7 m | 12.1 | 17.4% | 3.5% | +9.4% | +37% / +107% |
| 1AST.VIASTA Energy Solutions AG | 515.6 m | 17.1 | 42.3% | 4.3% | +8.3% | unavailable / unavailable |
| SBO.VISbo AG | 451.1 m | 19.1 | 5.2% | 5.2% | −18.8% | +4% / −31% |
| SEM.VISemperit Aktiengesellschaft Holding | 380.1 m | 905.0 | 0.1% | 0.1% | −2.1% | +40% / +28% |
| ACAG.VIAustriacard Holdings AG | 348.9 m | 25.7 | 11.4% | 4.1% | −8.2% | +77% / +65% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MMK.VI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 36.29 Total return -46% · Per year -46% | 64.48 Total return -5% · Per year -5% | 97.55 Total return 44% · Per year 44% |
| 3 years | 28.97 Total return -57% · Per year -25% | 58.48 Total return -14% · Per year -5% | 98.01 Total return 45% · Per year 13% |
| 5 years | 23.12 Total return -66% · Per year -19% | 53.04 Total return -22% · Per year -5% | 98.48 Total return 45% · Per year 8% |
- Exit P/E± 14.62
- Net margin± 10.23
- Annual revenue growth± 9.22
- Annual dilution± 0.86
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG is an Austrian maker of cartonboard and packaging, with packaging and carton divisions, and its 2025 annual report sets out a detailed risk framework for an industrial group of this kind. The group offers a useful context for investors following how it manages key staff, finance and information technology.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group has an extensive internal control system, with four-eyes procedures and regular internal audit, described in detail in the report 1.
- ISO 27001 and ISO 14001 or ISO 50001 certifications support the credibility of reporting and IT security 1.
- A stable shareholder structure, governed by families through a syndicate, may provide strategic continuity 1.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on key specialists and the risk of staff turnover are flagged as an important vulnerability 1.
- Currency exposure through subsidiaries outside the euro area creates translation risk on the balance sheet 1.
- Inventories and receivables raise risks of impairment and customer non-payment, particularly when stocks are too high 1.
Opportunities
- Investment in training and in-house academies could raise the quality of staff over the long term 1.
- Sustainability requirements may favour producers that already have well-developed data and control systems 1.
- Digitalisation and automation of production could improve efficiency and reduce manual errors 1.
Risks
- Dependence on key staffhigh
Shortages of specialists and departures from key positions could affect competitiveness and operational execution 1.
- Currency riskmedium
Exchange rate movements can affect both transactions and the translation of assets in subsidiaries using other currencies 1.
- Financing riskmedium
A change in interest rates or a breach of financial covenants could raise borrowing costs or lead to early repayment demands 1.
- IT securityhigh
Cyberattacks could halt production and invoicing systems, with significant financial losses 1.
- Compliance riskmedium
Breaches of regulation, sanctions or tax rules could lead to fines and reputational damage 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If training programmes and internal controls work as intended, the group could keep its competitiveness even in a difficult staffing market 1.
- The existing internal control structure and certifications could make it easier to adapt to new sustainability reporting requirements 1.
- The policy of natural hedging and derivatives used only for protection could limit the effect of currency fluctuations 1.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Trend in staff turnover in key positions2026
- Results of IT security recertifications and auditsnext 10-K
- How the group applies the new sustainability reporting law2026
- Development of currency exposure and balance sheet translation risk2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (called MM or MM Gruppe in the report) is the parent of an industrial group producing carton and packaging solutions, according to the 2025 annual report 1. The report describes a personnel strategy including training programmes such as 'MM-Academy', 'Sales Academy' and 'Manager Lab' 1. The group is organised into divisions and has subsidiaries in several countries, which explains its exposure to different currencies 1.
The shareholder structure and control are marked by a family syndicate that holds a significant part of the capital, and the report states that these shares are governed by a syndicate agreement 1. The group applies IFRS for financial reporting and prepares a consolidated non-financial statement as part of the management report 1.
The group's activity depends on the availability of skilled staff in key positions, on the functioning of IT systems and on working capital management, all covered in detail in the annual report 1. The report indicates that the group aims to offset these dependencies through personnel development policies and extensive internal controls 1.
Segments
Packaging division
The 2025 annual report refers to packaging divisions, with a separate operational technology team set up specifically for these divisions 1. This segment is where the group has invested in controlling production and securing industrial systems 1.
Carton division
The report describes the group as active in carton production, a product with complex supply chains and sensitivity to energy and raw material costs 1. Managing inventories through just-in-time production and storage agreements is an explicitly mentioned measure for this type of activity 1.
Market context
The market in which the group operates is, according to the report, influenced by currency movements, interest rate levels and regulation on sustainability and non-financial reporting 1. The report stresses that EU regulatory changes such as NIS-2 and data protection requirements raise the compliance burden for industrial producers 1.
The report also notes that the share of countries with currencies other than the euro in the group's activity creates exposure to translation risk, which can affect the value of assets stated in euros 1. These market conditions explain why the group emphasises natural hedging and derivatives used only for hedging purposes 1.
Trends
- Sustainability reporting regulationmixed
The new sustainability reporting law could change how the group prepares its non-financial reporting, given that the report mentions a legislative transition 1. Managing this change requires more robust data systems, which may bring additional short-term costs 1.
- Cybersecuritymixed
Cyber threats, including ransomware, are described as a growing threat for industrial producers, and the group has obtained ISO 27001 recertification 1. These investments could reduce the risk of disruption but require ongoing spending 1.
- Cost of financingmixed
The report shows that market interest rates affect both the cost of variable-rate loans and the opportunity cost of fixed loans 1. A falling-rate environment could reduce the cost of variable financing, while higher rates could increase it 1.
- Pressure on skilled staffheadwind
Shortages of specialists and staff turnover are identified as a major risk, especially for key positions that secure competitiveness 1. This trend could become a drag if the labour market stays tight 1.
Competitive position
The 2025 annual report does not explicitly name the group's competitors, so the competitive analysis rests on the product categories described in the source document 1. Competitiveness is linked, according to the report, to the ability to retain specialists and to respond to changes in raw material and energy costs 1.
The group's differentiation from other packaging and carton producers appears to come from the technical skills of its staff and from its production control systems, as described in the report 1. The report does not provide quantitative data on market share, so a detailed comparison cannot be supported from this source 1.
- European carton and packaging producers
The annual report does not name specific competitors; the group compares its competitiveness through staff and operational efficiency, with no competitor data in the source 1.
- International industrial packaging producers
The source does not identify concrete firms in this category, so no ticker symbols can be assigned from the report 1.
- Sustainable packaging solution providers
Competition in this area relates to the non-financial reporting requirements mentioned in the report, but the source names no companies 1.
- Recycled carton producers
The report mentions supply and inventories as risk factors without identifying named competitors 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202509 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.