olivLaw · European equity research
Moncler S.p.A. MONC.MI
Italy · Euronext Milan · ISIN IT0004965148 · Vertical: Listed companies from Italy
Moncler is an Italian luxury group that designs and distributes outerwear and accessories under the Moncler and Stone Island brands, with a distribution network led by its retail channel. According to the annual report for fiscal 2025, the group directly manages collection development and relies on owned factories and supervised third-party producers, making operational execution central. The leadership transition announced for 2026 draws attention to strategic continuity.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Moncler S.p.A. (MONC.MI) stock was 45.93 EUR (−2.07% on the day), with market capitalisation 12.5 bn EUR, P/E 19.9 on diluted EPS of 2.31 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.83%, beta 1.01, 52-week range 42.12–58.56 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 59.5
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 41.19 – 46.20
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.95 · band width 11.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 44.22 / 50.01
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.25 / -0.21
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +5.5% | −0.6% | +6.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −10.1% | −4.2% | −5.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | −16.3% | +4.3% | −20.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | −16.4% | +7.5% | −23.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | −14.6% | +9.9% | −24.5 pp | −6.1% |
| 3 years | −9.6% | +49.8% | −59.4 pp | +7.7% |
| 5 years | −32.1% | +42.8% | −74.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 21.6, median 23.8, max 24.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.0 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +4.2% | +0.7% |
| Net income | 611.9 m | 639.6 m | 626.7 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +4.5% | −2.0% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.26 | 2.36 | 2.31 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +4.4% | −2.1% |
| net % | 20.5% | 20.6% | 20.0% |
| Free cash flow | 738.4 m | 794.3 m | 740.4 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.2 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 3.8 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 6.0 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 2.42x
- ROE
- 16.9%
- ROA
- 10.9%
- FCF margin
- 23.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.0 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.1 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 683.4 m | 682.4 m | 685.9 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 893.8 m | 916.3 m | 913.4 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 34.5 m | 35.5 m | 52.0 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 870.6 m | 909.8 m | 887.2 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 258.7 m | 270.2 m | 260.5 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 611.9 m | 639.6 m | 626.7 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.26 | 2.36 | 2.31 | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 1.15 | 1.30 | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 998.8 m | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 325.6 m | 326.4 m | 292.1 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 453.2 m | 470.1 m | 538.8 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.9 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.4 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 603.4 m | 603.4 m | 603.4 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 5.0 bn | 5.5 bn | 6.0 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 538.6 m | 540.9 m | 527.3 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 979.8 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 3.2 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.8 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 269.6 m | 271.0 m | 271.3 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 914.9 m | 989.5 m | 960.5 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 176.4 m | 195.2 m | 220.1 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 738.4 m ≈ | 794.3 m ≈ | 740.4 m ≈ | esef· 24 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -242.7 m | -267.4 m | -300.0 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -528.0 m | -535.2 m | -602.3 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 12.5 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
42% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 14.53 – 52.79 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E14.53 – 52.79 (Mid 30.62)20 companies used · median multiple 13.3x · quartiles 6.3x – 22.9xAC5.MI, ACE.MI, ADB.MI, AEF.MI, AMP.MI, ARN.MI, ASC.MI, BC.MI, BEC.MI, CAI.MI, CIR.MI, CLF.MI, CMB.MI, COM.MI, CRL.MI, CY4.MI, DEX.MI, DIA.MI, DLG.MI, DNR.MI
- Dividend discount (DDM)17.68 – 24.11 (Mid 20.40)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 20.0% | 85 (vs peers) | 15% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 118.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 17.6x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.4x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 19.9x | 36 (vs peers) | 25% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 5.9% | 74 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality92/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation53/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
MONCLER S.P.A. (MONC.MI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.1 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth 0.7%; net margin 20.0%; ROE 16.9%.
The estimated value range is 16.11–38.45 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 25.51 EUR, the price of 45.93 EUR leaves a potential of -44.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -80.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 20.0%
- FCF conversion: 118.1%
- Interest coverage: 17.6x
- Current ratio: 2.4x
- FCF yield: 5.9%
What contradicts it
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Italy · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MONC.MIMoncler S.p.a. | 12.5 bn | 19.9 | 16.9% | 20.0% | +0.7% | −21% / −10% |
| DLG.MIDe' Longhi S.p.a. | 6.8 bn | 21.5 | 15.4% | 8.4% | +8.7% | +24% / +60% |
| ACE.MIAcea S.p.a. | 4.6 bn | 9.6 | 18.2% | 16.6% | +0.2% | −4% / +73% |
| DIA.MIDiasorin S.p.a. | 4.3 bn | 28.3 | 9.2% | 13.0% | +0.8% | +31% / −7% |
| CRL.MICarel Industries S.p.a. | 2.9 bn | 39.5 | 16.1% | 11.7% | +8.7% | +3% / +10% |
| AMP.MIAmplifon S.p.a. | 2.7 bn | 29.9 | 8.5% | 3.8% | −0.6% | −9% / −58% |
| CMB.MICembre S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 27.0 | 20.6% | 18.9% | +6.7% | +11% / +108% |
| COM.MIComer Industries S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 18.6 | 12.8% | 7.1% | −23.0% | +8% / +64% |
| DNR.MIIndustrie De Nora S.p.a. | 1.1 bn | 13.4 | 8.6% | 9.4% | +1.4% | −22% / −62% |
| ARN.MIAlerion Clean Power S.p.a. In Forma Abbreviata Alerion S.p.a. | 969.2 m | 10.4 | 23.5% | 41.0% | +1.8% | −5% / −23% |
| AVIO.MIAvio S.p.a. | 883.6 m | 86.8 | 2.1% | 1.8% | +21.5% | +18% / +291% |
| CIR.MICir S.p.a. - Compagnie Industriali Riunite | 783.3 m | 6.0 | 17.1% | 7.3% | +1.6% | +4% / +72% |
| ASC.MIAscopiave S.p.a. | 646.3 m | 18.0 | 4.2% | 17.5% | +13.4% | −8% / +33% |
| AC5.MIAcinque S.p.a. | 412.6 m | 19.6 | 4.1% | 3.6% | +0.2% | −6% / +8% |
| BAN.MIBasic Net S.p.a. | 348.0 m | — | -4.9% | -3.5% | +0.4% | −30% / +5% |
| ADB.MIAeroporto Guglielmo Marconi Di Bologna S.p.a. | 324.7 m | 13.1 | 11.1% | 13.7% | +9.2% | −2% / +12% |
| CAI.MICairo Communication S.p.a. | 289.2 m | 6.4 | 8.1% | 4.4% | −1.3% | −22% / +28% |
| ECNL.MIAquafil S.p.a. | 129.6 m | — | -3.2% | -0.9% | −3.9% | −1% / −52% |
| BEC.MIB&C Speakers S.p.a. | 118.7 m | 11.7 | 18.5% | 10.2% | −1.3% | −26% / −32% |
| ABT.MIAbitare In S.p.a. | 76.0 m | 276.0 | 0.4% | 0.4% | +39.8% | −6% / −47% |
| ELC.MIElica S.p.a. | 64.3 m | — | -7.8% | -2.2% | +1.9% | −34% / −48% |
| DEX.MIDexelance S.p.a. | 50.7 m | 2.8 | 11.0% | 5.4% | +12.6% | −63% / −78% |
| CLE.MIClass Editori S.p.a. | 35.1 m | — | -29.2% | -3.8% | −0.7% | −9% / +106% |
| CLF.MICaleffi - S.p.a. | 11.6 m | 5.2 | 10.9% | 3.8% | −2.5% | −4% / −10% |
| AEF.MIAeffe S.p.a. | 10.1 m | 0.5 | 21.9% | 7.7% | −21.3% | −59% / −86% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MONC.MI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 26.12 Total return -41% · Per year -41% | 46.27 Total return 4% · Per year 4% | 69.82 Total return 55% · Per year 55% |
| 3 years | 23.48 Total return -43% · Per year -17% | 46.97 Total return 11% · Per year 4% | 78.07 Total return 81% · Per year 22% |
| 5 years | 21.10 Total return -44% · Per year -11% | 47.67 Total return 18% · Per year 3% | 87.30 Total return 109% · Per year 16% |
- Exit P/E± 11.74
- Net margin± 8.22
- Annual revenue growth± 7.00
- Annual dilution± 0.69
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Moncler is an Italian luxury group that designs and distributes outerwear and accessories under the Moncler and Stone Island brands, with a distribution network led by its retail channel. According to the annual report for fiscal 2025, the group directly manages collection development and relies on owned factories and supervised third-party producers, making operational execution central. The leadership transition announced for 2026 draws attention to strategic continuity.
SWOT
Strengths
- Strong and recognised brands in the luxury segment, with a proven ability to open stores in premium locations and generate profit from the retail channel 1.
- Direct control over collection development and the supply chain, supervised through audits of suppliers and sub-suppliers 1.
- Self-financing capacity, with the group not relying on significant credit lines for current operations 1.
Weaknesses
- The retail structure carries high fixed costs, mainly linked to lease contracts, which amplify the impact of slower sales 1.
- Exposure to several currencies, with only partial hedging of transactional risk, can affect results reported in euro 1.
- Dependence on a number of third-party suppliers relevant for assembly, whose interruption could affect sales 1.
Opportunities
- Opening new stores in major cities and prestigious department stores can extend the group's presence 1.
- Introducing artificial intelligence could improve processes and customer experience, if regulatory risks are managed 1.
- Advance pricing agreements with tax authorities in main countries could reduce tax uncertainty 1.
Threats
Risks
- Dependence on third-party suppliersmedium
Interruption or termination of relations with some of the most relevant assembly suppliers could negatively affect sales and results 1.
- Retail network with fixed costsmedium
If sales slow in certain geographic areas, fixed costs from lease contracts could reduce the ability to generate profit 1.
- Product counterfeitinghigh
The presence on the market of significant quantities of counterfeit products could affect brand image and economic results 1.
- Currency riskhigh
Significant exchange rate movements can affect both transactions and the euro conversion of foreign subsidiaries' accounts 1.
- Tax complexitymedium
Interpretation of tax and customs rules, especially in complex areas, could have a significant impact on economic results if it differs from the group's application 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Strong brands, an extensive direct distribution network and self-financing capacity could support solid performance, if demand in the luxury segment remains robust 1.
- The dividend policy, combined with treasury shares and a balance sheet without significant credit dependence, could offer flexibility to shareholders 1.
- The new executive leadership and technological innovation could create new growth sources, if strategic execution remains consistent 1.
What would break the thesis
- The fixed costs of the retail network could amplify the impact of any slowdown in sales in key regions 1.
- Currency exposure and counterfeiting risk could affect margins and brand image, especially in periods of volatility 1.
- The leadership transition and dependence on third-party suppliers could create operational uncertainty in the near term 1.
What to watch
- Takeover of the chief executive role and effects on strategy2026
- Evolution of royalties received from subsidiaries Industries and Sportswear Company2026
- Results of the retail channel in regions with declining sales2026
- Impact of exchange rates on consolidated revenues in euro2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The Moncler group directly manages collection development and the choice of raw materials, and for garment assembly it uses both owned factories and independent third-party suppliers operating under strict supervision. The Moncler brand generates most of its revenue through the retail channel, made up of directly operated monobrand stores and the online store, while Stone Island has gradually reduced its exposure to wholesale. Royalties received by Moncler S.p.A. from subsidiaries Industries and Sportswear Company totalled 488.9 million EUR in fiscal 2025 1.
Governance follows the traditional Italian model, with a Consiglio di Amministrazione and a Collegio Sindacale, and statutory audit is performed by Deloitte & Touche S.p.A. The Chairman and CEO is assisted by an advisory Strategic Committee. From 1 April 2026 a new chief executive will take over the role, while the current chairman becomes Executive Chairman and keeps responsibility for the Creative Direction 1.
The dividend policy remains important for shareholders: the gross unit dividend of 1.30 EUR per share paid in 2025 was higher than the previous year's, and the group holds treasury shares representing 1.2% of share capital at 31 December 2025 1.
Segments
Moncler
The Moncler brand generates most of its revenue through the retail channel, which includes directly operated monobrand stores and the online store. Retail carries higher fixed costs, mainly linked to lease contracts, so performance depends on store productivity 1.
Stone Island
The Stone Island brand has progressively reduced its exposure to wholesale and now presents a balanced distribution between wholesale and direct channels. Activity runs through subsidiary Sportswear Company, which pays royalties to Moncler S.p.A. 1.
Market context
The luxury goods market is competitive, and the group competes for premium positions in major cities and prestigious department stores. Revenues are exposed to several currencies, such as the Chinese renminbi, Japanese yen and US dollar, and the group hedges currency transactions under a policy with a minimum coverage of 75% at the start of each sales campaign and 90% at its end 1.
Counterfeiting of brands and products is a recognised phenomenon in the luxury market, and the group has invested in traceability technologies across the value chain. Demand in some regions also depends on macroeconomic conditions, and trade tensions could affect sourcing costs and sales 1.
Trends
- Leadership transitionmixed
The appointment of a new chief executive, effective April 2026, could bring new strategic priorities, while continuity is kept through the executive role of the founder in creative and strategic direction 1.
- Artificial intelligencemixed
Adoption of artificial intelligence tools is seen as an important opportunity, but could bring regulatory risks and the need for additional internal skills 1.
- Product regulationheadwind
Stricter standards on cybersecurity and product compliance could generate adaptation costs and changes to production, if adopted 1.
- Direct distributiontailwind
The proprietary retail channel offers control over customer experience and pricing, but remains sensitive to slower sales in certain geographic areas, if that occurs 1.
Competitive position
The Moncler group operates in a luxury segment where competition for top positions in stores and department stores is very intense. The annual report does not explicitly name competitors, so the competitive analysis rests on the market positioning described in the source 1.
Competitive advantage depends on the ability to innovate technologically in processes and collections, and insufficient innovation could lead to losing position against other players in the sector 1.
- Premium luxury apparel houses
The annual report mentions intense competition for prestigious positions in major cities without naming specific competitors 1.
- Premium sportswear fashion brands
Competition comes from brands active in the same wholesale and retail channels, without nominal identification in the source 1.
- Luxury retail through department stores
Competition for space in prestigious department stores is described as very strong 1.
- Counterfeiters and unauthorised networks
Counterfeit products can affect brand image and sales, although they are not legal competitors 1.
News & filings
In the press
- Moncler construiește un mini-oraș în Bacău. Fabrică, locuințe și servicii multiple pentru angajați în același locLibertatea.ro · 23 Oct 2026 · RO
- Cum au ajuns Moncler, Louis Vuitton, Prada şi Gucci cei mai mari producatori de haine, pantofi şi genţi din România?Ziarul Financiar · 23 Sept 2026 · RO
- Cine sunt astăzi marii jucători din producţia de îmbrăcăminte şi încălţăminte din România: Moncler, Louis Vuitton, Prada şi Gucci controlează unele dintre cele mai mari fabrici autohtone. Lohn-ul a devenit neprofitabil în România, aşa că multe fabrici s-au închisZiarul Financiar · 23 Sept 2026 · RO
- Poliția italiană a efectuat controale la companii de modă, inclusiv Brunello Cucinelli și Moncler, într-o anchetă privind exploatarea forței de muncăG4Media · 20 Jul 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202524 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Moncler S.p.A. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.