olivLaw · European equity research
Nexi S.p.A. NEXI.MI
Italy · Euronext Milan · ISIN IT0005366767 · Vertical: Listed companies from Italy
Nexi is a European digital payments group offering merchant acquiring, card issuing and services for banks and public administrations. Its 2024 annual report stresses infrastructure security, digitalisation of payments and a sustainability agenda, including an S&P Global ESG score of 74 out of 100.
At the close of 06 Nov 2026, Nexi S.p.A. (NEXI.MI) stock was 4.50 EUR (−3.64% on the day), with market capitalisation 5.8 bn EUR, P/E 34.6 on diluted EPS of 0.13 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.05%, beta 0.84, 52-week range 2.79–4.67 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 57.5
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 4.22 – 4.62
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.68 · band width 9.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 4.27 / 3.79
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.09 / 0.07
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +8.1% | −0.2% | +8.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | +5.7% | −5.4% | +11.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +8.0% | +4.4% | +3.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | +6.6% | +6.5% | +0.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +12.6% | +10.0% | +2.7 pp | −6.3% |
| 3 years | −25.3% | +48.6% | −73.8 pp | +8.4% |
| 5 years | −70.5% | +41.4% | −111.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 1-quarter history (min 41.2, median 41.2, max 41.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | -1.0 bn | 167.4 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.72 | 0.13 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | 773.0 m | 870.3 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- 74.7 m EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 11.0 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 24.5 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 1.5%
- ROA
- 0.7%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income | -875.2 m | 408.7 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | -889.6 m | 407.9 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Income tax | 134.3 m | 217.5 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Net income | -1.0 bn | 167.4 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.72 | 0.13 | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.00 | 0.00 | esef· 15 Apr 2025derived |
Balance sheet · EUR
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 902.4 m | 974.0 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Capex | 129.4 m | 103.7 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | 773.0 m ≈ | 870.3 m ≈ | esef· 15 Apr 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -639.8 m | -353.9 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | 88.8 m | -1.3 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | 3.1 m | 2.9 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
06 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 5.8 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
35% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.83 – 3.44 EUR.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E0.83 – 3.44 (Mid 1.74)21 companies used · median multiple 13.4x · quartiles 6.4x – 26.4xAC5.MI, ACE.MI, ADB.MI, AEF.MI, AMP.MI, ARN.MI, ASC.MI, BC.MI, BEC.MI, CAI.MI, CIR.MI, CLF.MI, CMB.MI, COM.MI, CRL.MI, CY4.MI, DEX.MI, DIA.MI, DLG.MI, DNR.MI, ELN.MI
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate0.03 – 0.04 (Mid 0.04)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 520.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 34.6x | 13 (vs peers) | 29% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 15.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 24% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.1% | 1 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 0.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns40/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation52/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
NEXI SPA (NEXI.MI). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 1.5%.
The estimated value range is 0.83–3.44 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 1.74 EUR, the price of 4.50 EUR leaves a potential of -61.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -157.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 520.0%
- FCF yield: 15.0%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 0.3%
What contradicts it
- P/E (TTM): 34.6x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.1%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Italy · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLG.MIDe' Longhi S.p.a. | 6.8 bn | 21.5 | 15.4% | 8.4% | +8.7% | +24% / +60% |
| ACE.MIAcea S.p.a. | 4.6 bn | 9.6 | 18.2% | 16.6% | +0.2% | −4% / +72% |
| DIA.MIDiasorin S.p.a. | 4.4 bn | 29.0 | 9.2% | 13.0% | +0.8% | +34% / −5% |
| CRL.MICarel Industries S.p.a. | 2.9 bn | 39.5 | 16.1% | 11.7% | +8.7% | +3% / +10% |
| AMP.MIAmplifon S.p.a. | 2.7 bn | 30.5 | 8.5% | 3.8% | −0.6% | −7% / −57% |
| ELN.MIEl.en. - S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 30.1 | 10.9% | 7.3% | +4.2% | +26% / +72% |
| COM.MIComer Industries S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 19.0 | 12.8% | 7.1% | −23.0% | +10% / +67% |
| CMB.MICembre S.p.a. | 1.2 bn | 26.4 | 20.6% | 18.9% | +6.7% | +9% / +103% |
| DNR.MIIndustrie De Nora S.p.a. | 1.1 bn | 13.4 | 8.6% | 9.4% | +1.4% | −23% / −62% |
| ARN.MIAlerion Clean Power S.p.a. In Forma Abbreviata Alerion S.p.a. | 985.3 m | 10.6 | 23.5% | 41.0% | +1.8% | −3% / −22% |
| AVIO.MIAvio S.p.a. | 865.6 m | 85.1 | 2.1% | 1.8% | +21.5% | +16% / +283% |
| CIR.MICir S.p.a. - Compagnie Industriali Riunite | 800.3 m | 6.1 | 17.1% | 7.3% | +1.6% | +6% / +76% |
| ASC.MIAscopiave S.p.a. | 621.5 m | 17.3 | 4.2% | 17.5% | +13.4% | −12% / +27% |
| AC5.MIAcinque S.p.a. | 408.7 m | 19.4 | 4.1% | 3.6% | +0.2% | −7% / +7% |
| BAN.MIBasic Net S.p.a. | 350.2 m | — | -4.9% | -3.5% | +0.4% | −30% / +5% |
| ADB.MIAeroporto Guglielmo Marconi Di Bologna S.p.a. | 320.4 m | 12.9 | 11.1% | 13.7% | +9.2% | −3% / +10% |
| CAI.MICairo Communication S.p.a. | 289.2 m | 6.4 | 8.1% | 4.4% | −1.3% | −22% / +28% |
| ECNL.MIAquafil S.p.a. | 130.1 m | — | -3.2% | -0.9% | −3.9% | −1% / −52% |
| BEC.MIB&C Speakers S.p.a. | 116.6 m | 11.5 | 18.5% | 10.2% | −1.3% | −27% / −33% |
| ABT.MIAbitare In S.p.a. | 74.9 m | 272.0 | 0.4% | 0.4% | +39.8% | −7% / −48% |
| ELC.MIElica S.p.a. | 63.7 m | — | -7.8% | -2.2% | +1.9% | −35% / −49% |
| DEX.MIDexelance S.p.a. | 52.8 m | 3.0 | 11.0% | 5.4% | +12.6% | −61% / −77% |
| CLE.MIClass Editori S.p.a. | 35.1 m | — | -29.2% | -3.8% | −0.7% | −9% / +106% |
| CLF.MICaleffi - S.p.a. | 11.6 m | 5.1 | 10.9% | 3.8% | −2.5% | −5% / −11% |
| AEF.MIAeffe S.p.a. | 10.3 m | 0.5 | 21.9% | 7.7% | −21.3% | −58% / −86% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NEXI.MI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Nexi is a European digital payments group offering merchant acquiring, card issuing and services for banks and public administrations. Its 2024 annual report stresses infrastructure security, digitalisation of payments and a sustainability agenda, including an S&P Global ESG score of 74 out of 100 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group has its own technology infrastructure and an extensive network of bank partnerships, which support its access to customers and the scale of its operations.
- Nexi earned a solid ESG score and reported measurable progress on sustainability and management diversity objectives.
- Service continuity is a declared strength, with a very high availability target reached in 2024.
Weaknesses
- Reliance on banks for distribution and concentration of relationships in the Italian market expose the group to partners' decisions.
- Volume-driven revenues are sensitive to economic cycles and consumer spending levels.
- Integration of IT systems and operations could slow the execution of some growth initiatives.
Opportunities
- Deeper digital payment penetration in Europe and the public sector could generate additional volume for existing and new services.
- Digital solutions and deferred payment services could open unexplored segments if executed on time.
- Financing from the European Investment Bank and loans for innovation investment could support the group's technology programmes.
Threats
- New fintech entrants and the expansion of existing competitors could reduce market share and pressure margins.
- Increasingly sophisticated cyberattacks and AI-enhanced fraud represent rising risks.
- Regulatory changes and audits by supervisory authorities could generate additional costs.
Risks
- Cybersecurity and data breacheshigh
The group processes payment and personal data, and a security incident could lead to sanctions, remediation costs and reputational damage 1.
- IT infrastructure outageshigh
Unplanned downtime of acquiring and issuing platforms could affect revenue and service level agreements, with high economic and reputational impact 1.
- Concentration on bank partnersmedium
The loss of a major partner bank or consolidation in the banking sector could reduce revenues and cash flows 1.
- Competition and adaptationmedium
Failure to adapt quickly to changing market dynamics could lead to lost business, with economic and reputational impact 1.
- Fraud and credit riskmedium
Payment fraud and non-payment by merchants or credit customers could generate disputes, fines and unrecoverable receivables 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If digital payment penetration keeps rising in Europe, transaction volumes could support group revenues, and the infrastructure and bank partnerships could amplify that effect.
- Sustainability progress, including the ESG score and decarbonisation targets, could strengthen long-term confidence among investors and partners.
- Financing from the European Investment Bank and Cassa Depositi e Prestiti could support investment in innovation and digital technology.
What would break the thesis
- A prolonged economic downturn could reduce the number of transactions and spending per transaction, directly hitting volume-driven revenues.
- Competition from fintech players and software vendors could put pressure on prices and market share.
- Dependence on a few bank partners could expose the group to strategic decisions taken by those banks, with effects on revenues.
What to watch
- Trend in acceptance revenues and transaction volumes2025
- Progress on Scope 1 and 2 emission reduction targets2030
- Use of the EIB loan drawn in January 2025 and investment progressnext 10-K
- Cybersecurity incidents and service availabilitynext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Nexi presents itself as a group that makes digital payments a driver of progress, offering solutions, innovations and capabilities for the markets where it operates 1. The business rests on three pillars: merchant payment acceptance, card issuing and transaction processing, all on its own technology infrastructure. The group works largely with banks through their networks and branches, making the bank relationship central to its model 1.
Nexi's revenues partly depend on the number and volume of payment transactions, so the model is sensitive to digital payment penetration and to spending by consumers, businesses and public administration 1. The group also carries a credit component: credit cards, buy now pay later services and merchant settlements create receivables that must be managed 1.
On governance, sustainability is anchored in the board of directors and the control, risk and sustainability committee, and ESG objectives are linked to executive variable pay 1. The 2024 sustainability statement was approved by the board on 27 February 2025 1.
Segments
Merchant acceptance
The acceptance segment provides POS terminals, processing and services for merchants, where Nexi's revenue rests on transaction volume and on renewing its terminal base 1.
Card issuing and banking services
For card issuing, Nexi works mainly through partner banks that distribute products to customers; this relationship is also the most exposed to concentration 1.
Digital solutions and BNPL
Digital propositions, including deferred payment services, are presented as a growth driver, and the group reported over three hundred thousand digital proposition contracts for a cashless society in Europe 1.
Market context
Nexi operates in the European and non-European digital payments market, where the economy, consumer confidence and cashless penetration determine transaction volumes 1. Management expects a gradual recovery of the European economy, with positive effects on household consumption, which could support revenue growth despite considerable geopolitical uncertainty 1.
The Italian market carries significant weight in the group's activity, and the concentration of relationships with banks in that country means developments in the banking sector matter directly for Nexi 1.
Trends
- Rising penetration of digital paymentstailwind
The shift from cash to digital payments supports transaction volumes and volume-driven revenues, especially if consumer habits keep changing 1.
- European economic recoverymixed
A recovery in consumption and real wages could support card spending, while a prolonged deterioration would reduce the number of transactions 1.
- Competitive pressure from fintechheadwind
New entrants and the expansion of existing competitors' services make the market more competitive, with a risk of lost business if Nexi does not adapt in time 1.
- Regulation and sustainability requirementsmixed
Implementing the EU sustainability reporting directive and payment system regulation raises compliance costs, while also increasing transparency 1.
Competitive position
Nexi notes in its report that the European digital payments market is becoming more competitive, with sector-specific fintech specialists and integrated software vendors offering flexible digital solutions 1. Pressure also comes from existing competitors expanding their services, which could affect market share if Nexi does not adapt its offers 1.
The group's differentiation rests on its network of bank partnerships, its processing infrastructure and its ability to deliver digital services at scale, but these advantages depend on maintaining bank relationships 1.
- Adyen
Payments processor with a European presence, cited as representative of new fintech entrants competing on digital merchant services.
- Worldline
European payment services provider for merchants and banks, competing directly on acceptance and processing.
- Global PaymentsGPN
US payment processing company also active in Europe, present in merchant acceptance segments.
- FiservFI
US financial technology and payments provider with solutions for banks and merchants that enter the same competitive field.
News & filings
In the press
- BCE selectează Nexi–Deutsche Telekom și Telefónica–Indra pentru conectivitatea euro digital, în pregătirea unei eventuale emiteriFinancial Intelligence (RO) · 01 Nov 2026 · RO
- Italy’s Cassa Depositi Plans to Raise Nexi Stake Up to 29.9%Bloomberg Markets · 25 May 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2024-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Nexi S.p.A. · 31 Dec 2024
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.