olivLaw · European equity research
Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. NTGY.MC
Spain · BME Madrid · ISIN ES0116870314 · Vertical: Listed companies from Spain
Naturgy is an integrated energy group active in thermal and renewable generation, distribution networks, retail supply and renewable gas, with broad geographic exposure in Europe and Latin America. In fiscal 2025 the group recorded both impairments and impairment reversals, showing how sensitive its assets are to electricity prices and tariffs. For investors the key point is the pace of energy-transition investment, where the group has investment commitments of 366 million EUR.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. (NTGY.MC) stock was 29.74 EUR (+0.95% on the day), with market capitalisation 27.7 bn EUR, P/E 13.7 on diluted EPS of 2.17 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 6.05%, beta 0.15, 52-week range 24.42–31.10 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 47.7
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 29.15 – 31.26
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.28 · band width 7.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 29.73 / 28.03
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.06 / 0.09
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +1.1% | −0.6% | +1.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | +3.3% | −4.2% | +7.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | +11.7% | +4.3% | +7.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | +14.7% | +7.5% | +7.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +10.8% | +9.9% | +0.9 pp | +6.7% |
| 3 years | +12.2% | +49.8% | −37.6 pp | +31.5% |
| 5 years | +27.2% | +42.8% | −15.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 11.8, median 11.9, max 13.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 22.6 bn | 19.3 bn | 19.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −14.8% | +1.0% |
| Net income | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −4.3% | +6.4% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.07 | 1.98 | 2.17 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −4.3% | +9.6% |
| net % | 8.8% | 9.9% | 10.4% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 4.4 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- 12.9 bn EUR
- Net debt
- 8.5 bn EUR
- Equity
- 11.4 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 39.1 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 1.13x
- Current ratio
- 1.18x
- ROE
- 17.6%
- ROA
- 5.1%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 22.6 bn | 19.3 bn | 19.5 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | 3.5 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.6 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 817.0 m | 842.0 m | 793.0 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 3.0 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.2 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 768.0 m | 835.0 m | 833.0 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.07 | 1.98 | 2.17 | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 1.40 | 1.80 | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 3.7 bn | 5.6 bn | 4.4 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | 1.3 bn | 807.0 m | 1.0 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 8.6 bn | 10.7 bn | 9.4 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 18.7 bn | 19.5 bn | 19.3 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 2.9 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.9 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 3.0 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.1 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 37.9 bn | 40.8 bn | 39.1 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 3.7 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.2 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 12.1 bn | 13.7 bn | 12.9 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 7.1 bn | 8.2 bn | 8.0 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 11.9 bn | 11.7 bn | 11.4 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 959.4 m | 960.1 m | 932.3 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 4.9 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.5 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Investing cash flow | -2.7 bn | -1.8 bn | -1.9 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -2.3 bn | -239.0 m | -3.7 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 20.0 m | 510.0 m | 2.6 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 27.7 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
44% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 24.48 – 49.33 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E32.94 – 49.33 (Mid 43.14)18 companies used · median multiple 19.9x · quartiles 15.2x – 22.7xACS.MC, ADX.MC, AEDAS.MC, AENA.MC, AMS.MC, ANA.MC, CAF.MC, CLEO.MC, CMO.MC, DESA.MC, DIA.MC, EAT.MC, EDR.MC, ELE.MC, ENER.MC, ENO.MC, FAE.MC, FCC.MC
- Dividend discount (DDM)24.48 – 33.38 (Mid 28.25)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 13.4% | 29 (vs peers) | 24% |
| Net margin · Quality | 10.4% | 76 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 4.5x | 46 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.2x | 31 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 13.7x | 82 (vs peers) | 24% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 9.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality46/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial82/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
NATURGY ENERGY GROUP SA (NTGY.MC). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 19.5 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth 1.0%; net margin 10.4%; ROE 21.5%.
The estimated value range is 28.71–41.36 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 35.69 EUR, the price of 29.74 EUR leaves a potential of 20.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 16.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 10.4%
- P/E (TTM): 13.7x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 9.3%
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 13.4%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Spain · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELE.MCEndesa SA | 46.9 bn | 21.4 | 26.4% | 10.5% | +0.5% | +43% / +134% |
| AENA.MCAena S.m.e. SA | 42.6 bn | 19.9 | 24.2% | 34.0% | +8.9% | +21% / +79% |
| NTGY.MCNaturgy Energy Group SA | 27.7 bn | 13.7 | 21.5% | 10.4% | +1.0% | +12% / +8% |
| AMS.MCAmadeus It Group Sociedad Anonima | 26.2 bn | 19.8 | 26.9% | 20.5% | +6.1% | −6% / −5% |
| ACS.MCAcs Actividades De Construccion Y Servicios, S.A. | 21.9 bn | 23.0 | 19.9% | 1.9% | +19.7% | +7% / +134% |
| ANA.MCAcciona SA | 11.7 bn | 14.5 | 16.9% | 4.0% | +5.5% | +24% / +66% |
| FCC.MCFomento De Construcciones Y Contratas S.A. | 5.0 bn | 30.3 | 5.3% | 1.7% | +6.9% | −8% / −14% |
| DIA.MCDistribuidora Internacional De Alimentacion SA | 2.7 bn | 20.6 | 165.6% | 2.2% | −2.7% | +51% / +380,733% |
| CMO.MCCementos Molins S.A. | 2.5 bn | 13.6 | 14.3% | 18.0% | −3.1% | +31% / unavailable |
| ENO.MCElecnor SA | 2.4 bn | 21.9 | 10.5% | 2.5% | +15.1% | −3% / +58% |
| ALM.MCAlmirall S.A. | 2.4 bn | 51.1 | 3.1% | 4.2% | +12.4% | −11% / +32% |
| FAE.MCFaes Farma SA | 1.5 bn | 19.3 | 10.8% | 13.0% | +23.7% | +3% / +57% |
| AEDAS.MCAedas Homes SA | 1.0 bn | 17.1 | 57.8% | 7.0% | −24.8% | +0% / +38% |
| EDR.MCEdreams Odigeo SA | 574.4 m | 11.5 | 21.0% | 7.8% | −0.4% | +40% / −24% |
| EAT.MCAmRest Holdings SE | 506.0 m | 31.4 | 4.3% | 0.6% | +0.1% | −34% / −61% |
| ADX.MCAudax Renovables S.A. | 468.5 m | 23.9 | 9.3% | 1.0% | −5.4% | −23% / −18% |
| ATRY.MCAtrys Health, S.A. | 200.4 m | — | -49.5% | -71.1% | +8.5% | −3% / −29% |
| ENER.MCEcoener, S.A. | 175.6 m | 32.2 | 4.2% | 6.4% | +3.6% | −34% / −6% |
| ADZ.MCAdolfo Dominguez SA | 62.9 m | 38.3 | 9.0% | 1.2% | +1.8% | +39% / +40% |
| DESA.MCDesarrollos Especiales De Sistemas De Anclaje S.A. | 44.8 m | 9.2 | 152.3% | 10.0% | +2.2% | +19% / unavailable |
| EZE.MCGrupo Ezentis SA | 29.0 m | — | — | -9.3% | +147.2% | −30% / −37% |
| CLEO.MCCompañia Levantina De Edificacion Y Obras Publicas SA | 17.3 m | 14.4 | 4.1% | 3.4% | +13.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AYC.MCAyco Grupo Inmobiliario, S.A. | 16.4 m | — | -33.8% | — | −100.0% | unavailable / unavailable |
| EBRO.MCEbro Foods, S.A. | 3.0 m | 0.0 | 10.0% | 7.7% | −4.0% | −0% / +19% |
| A3M.MCAtresmedia Corporacion De Medios De Comunicacion, S.A. | — | — | 7.9% | 6.9% | −2.7% | +13% / +60% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NTGY.MC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 16.96 Total return -38% · Per year -38% | 30.03 Total return 7% · Per year 7% | 45.31 Total return 60% · Per year 60% |
| 3 years | 15.31 Total return -35% · Per year -14% | 30.62 Total return 21% · Per year 7% | 50.88 Total return 95% · Per year 25% |
| 5 years | 13.83 Total return -33% · Per year -8% | 31.22 Total return 36% · Per year 6% | 57.15 Total return 134% · Per year 19% |
- Exit P/E± 7.65
- Net margin± 5.36
- Annual revenue growth± 4.55
- Annual dilution± 0.45
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Naturgy is an integrated energy group active in thermal and renewable generation, distribution networks, retail supply and renewable gas, with broad geographic exposure in Europe and Latin America. In fiscal 2025 the group recorded both impairments and impairment reversals, showing how sensitive its assets are to electricity prices and tariffs. For investors the key point is the pace of energy-transition investment, where the group has investment commitments of 366 million EUR.
SWOT
Strengths
- Diversified asset portfolio across generation, networks and retail, with broad geographic presence.
- Substantial tangible and intangible asset base supporting operational scale.
- Clear strategic plan for investment in the energy transition and in networks.
Weaknesses
- Exposure to gas and electricity price volatility, affecting thermal generation.
- Impairments recognised in 2025 for renewable parks in Spain.
- Exposure to hyperinflationary economies in Latin America, affecting concession assets.
Opportunities
- Growing investment in renewables and renewable gas could open new revenue sources.
- Network modernisation could support regulated remuneration if tariffs adjust.
- Disposal of non-strategic assets, such as those held for sale, could release capital.
Threats
- Regulatory pressure on remuneration criteria could reduce returns.
- Lower electricity prices could trigger further impairments in thermal generation.
- Tax and legal risks could raise costs if interpretations change.
Risks
- Energy price riskhigh
Volatility in gas and electricity prices can affect margins and the value of generation assets, especially if prices fall.
- Impairment riskhigh
Impairment tests are sensitive to discount rates, output volumes and prices. Changes in these could produce accounting losses.
- Regulatory riskmedium
Revisions to remuneration criteria for regulated activities could reduce network revenues.
- Currency and inflation risk in Argentinamedium
A hyperinflationary economy can affect the value of concessions and networks in Argentina if the exchange rate or inflation move unfavourably.
- Tax risklow
Different interpretations of tax rules across several jurisdictions could generate additional costs.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If investment in renewables and networks translates into remunerated assets, the group could enjoy more predictable revenues.
- Impairment reversals recognised in 2025 show that some assets can recover value when conditions improve.
- Geographic diversification could cushion regional shocks.
What would break the thesis
- If electricity prices fall, thermal generation could require further significant impairments.
- Regulatory and competitive pressure could limit margins in networks and retail.
- Exposure to Latin America could bring losses from inflation and exchange rate movements.
What to watch
- Evolution of impairments and impairment reversals in renewable generation2026
- Pace of investment under the 2025-2027 strategic plan2026
- Outcome of negotiations on regulated remuneration criteria2026
- Evolution of inflation and the exchange rate in Argentinanext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Naturgy operates in thermal and renewable generation, gas and electricity distribution, energy retail and renewable gas. Its activity spans Spain, Latin America, the United States and Australia, and its asset base includes concessions, networks, wind farms and solar parks. The net book value of intangible assets at 31 December 2025 is 5,963 million EUR 1, and that of property, plant and equipment is 19,323 million EUR 1.
The group reports assets by cash-generating units, and impairment tests use discount rates, growth, electricity prices and operating costs. In 2025 impairments were recognised mainly for renewable parks in Spain, while reversals related to gas networks in Argentina 1. CINIIF 12 concessions are affected by inflation and the exchange rate in Argentina, a hyperinflationary economy.
The group has investment commitments for building renewable installations and expanding gas and electricity networks, along with customer acquisition costs capitalised under IFRS 15. Assets held for sale include installations in Chile and solar projects in the United States, transferred at the end of 2025 1.
Segments
Thermal and renewable generation
Thermal generation in Spain is sensitive to the volume of electricity produced, and a 5% drop in output could generate impairments of 215 million EUR 1. Renewable generation carries significant in-progress assets, and projects in Australia and the United States were in the commissioning phase 1.
Distribution networks
Gas and electricity networks in Argentina, Chile, Mexico and Spain form a major part of the asset base, with CINIIF 12 concessions and related goodwill. The reversal of a 30 million EUR impairment in Argentina shows how tariffs and exchange rates can change recoverable value 1.
Market context
Energy markets in Spain and Latin America are dominated by volatile gas and electricity prices, and by renewables with zero marginal cost. The group describes volume and margin risks as uncertainties arising from demand pressure and competition 1.
The regulatory framework shapes returns on regulated activities in Spain and Latin America, and the group notes that regulators periodically review remuneration criteria 1. Inflation and currency uncertainties in Argentina and Brazil remain relevant 1.
Trends
- Energy transitiontailwind
The 2025-2027 strategic plan foresees major investment in renewable generation, electricity networks and renewable gas, which could support growth in regulated and renewable assets 1.
- Energy price volatilityheadwind
Volatility in gas and electricity prices could compress margins and trigger impairments in thermal and renewable generation, especially if prices fall 1.
- Regulation and tariffsmixed
Regulatory pressure on remuneration criteria could weigh on network returns, but may also bring predictability if tariffs adjust to investment costs 1.
- Inflation and exchange rates in Latin Americamixed
Inflation and the exchange rate in Argentina affect the carrying value of concessions, but could be offset by impairment reversals when conditions improve 1.
Competitive position
Naturgy competes with other integrated energy operators in Spain and Latin America, mainly in retail supply and renewable generation. Competitive pressure in renewing gas supply contracts is explicitly noted in the report 1.
In renewables, competition for projects and operating licences can influence acquisition costs and commissioning timelines, and the group holds renewable park licences in Spain, Brazil and Australia 1.
- Iberdrola
Integrated competitor in Spain and Latin America, active in networks and renewables.
- Endesa
Competitor in distribution and retail in Spain.
- Enel
Competitor in networks and generation in Latin America.
- EDP
Competitor in renewable generation and distribution.
News & filings
In the press
- Spain’s Naturgy to Build $344 Million Australia Renewables PlantBloomberg Markets · 16 Jul 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202520 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.