olivLaw · European equity research
Orange Belgium OBEL.BR
Belgium · Euronext Brussels · ISIN BE0003735496 · Vertical: Listed companies from Belgium
Orange Belgium is a Belgian telecommunications operator controlled by the French group Orange SA through Atlas Services Belgium, which holds the majority of its capital. The company has separated its network activity from its commercial business, a structural change relevant to investors. The consulted sources do not provide revenue figures for the period analysed.
At the close of 06 Nov 2026, Orange Belgium (OBEL.BR) stock was 22.20 EUR (−0.45% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.5 bn EUR, P/E 36.4 on diluted EPS of 0.61 EUR over the last 12 months, beta 0.03, 52-week range 18.65–22.30 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 50.8
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 22.01 – 22.37
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.53 · band width 1.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 22.14 / 20.10
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.04 / 0.04
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −0.4% | −0.6% | +0.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | +0.9% | −4.2% | +5.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +5.7% | +4.3% | +1.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | +15.0% | +7.5% | +7.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | unavailable | +9.9% | unavailable | +6.0% |
| 3 years | +68.4% | +49.8% | +18.6 pp | −7.4% |
| 5 years | +13.8% | +42.8% | −29.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 50 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 31.6, median 37.6, max 43.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −1.5% |
| Net income | 22.1 m | 41.3 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +86.5% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.34 | 0.61 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +79.4% |
| net % | 1.1% | 2.1% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 80.6 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 1.7 bn EUR
- Net debt
- 1.6 bn EUR
- Equity
- 1.0 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 4.1 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 1.68x
- Current ratio
- 0.54x
- ROE
- 4.2%
- ROA
- 1.0%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 234.0 m | 226.5 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.8 bn ≈ | 1.7 bn ≈ | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
| Operating income | 118.8 m | 136.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 411.5 m | 418.4 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 530.3 m ≈ | 554.8 m ≈ | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 114.6 m | 97.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 4.3 m | 39.4 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | -12.9 m | -2.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 22.1 m | 41.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.34 | 0.61 | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 64.9 m | 67.4 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 58.2 m | 80.6 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 34.8 m | 38.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 468.3 m | 521.4 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 751.2 m | 751.2 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 861.9 m | 813.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 4.1 bn | 4.1 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.9 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 772.7 m | 957.4 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 959.3 m | 1.0 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 65.1 m | 67.7 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
06 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.5 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
58% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.00 – 62.30 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDA0.00 – 62.30 (Mid 12.68)6 companies used · median multiple 4.5x · quartiles 2.9x – 10.5xCFEB.BR, DEME.BR, EKOP.BR, FOU.BR, JEN.BR, MIKO.BR
- Peers: P/E6.51 – 14.40 (Mid 9.26)24 companies used · median multiple 15.2x · quartiles 10.7x – 23.6xACKB.BR, AGS.BR, AZE.BR, BANI.BR, BAR.BR, BEKB.BR, BELYS.BR, BPOST.BR, CAMB.BR, CFEB.BR, COLR.BR, DECB.BR, DEME.BR, DIE.BR, ECONB.BR, ELI.BR, EVS.BR, FAGR.BR, FLOB.BR, FOU.BR, IBAB.BR, JEN.BR, KIN.BR, MELE.BR
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 4.2% | 26 (vs peers) | 18% |
| Net margin · Quality | 2.1% | 41 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 2.9x | 11 (vs peers) | 18% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 1.4x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.5x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 36.4x | 22 (vs peers) | 18% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 5.6x | 50 (vs peers) | 18% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet6/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality32/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation36/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ORANGE BELGIUM (OBEL.BR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.0 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth -1.5%; net margin 2.1%; ROE 4.2%; net debt/EBITDA 2.9x.
The estimated value range is 3.25–38.35 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: same basis (multiples on one peer group, not independent confirmations)); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 10.97 EUR, the price of 22.20 EUR leaves a potential of -50.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -102.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 4.2%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 2.9x
- Interest coverage: 1.4x
- Current ratio: 0.5x
- P/E (TTM): 36.4x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Belgium · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELI.BRElia Group | 12.0 bn | 23.4 | 9.6% | 13.6% | −2.0% | +29% / +35% |
| LOTB.BRLotus Bakeries | 11.4 bn | 66.4 | 20.9% | 12.7% | +10.0% | +82% / +76% |
| GBLB.BRGroupe Bruxelles Lambert - Groep Brussel Lambert | 10.6 bn | 82.3 | 0.8% | 2.1% | +1.0% | +6% / +9% |
| DIE.BRD'ieteren Group | 9.5 bn | 22.7 | — | 5.3% | −1.5% | +19% / +14% |
| ACKB.BRAckermans & Van Haaren | 8.8 bn | 22.1 | 8.4% | 7.6% | +18.6% | +22% / +77% |
| COLR.BRColruyt Group | 4.4 bn | 14.5 | 9.4% | 2.9% | +3.1% | +10% / −7% |
| DEME.BRDeme Group | 4.1 bn | 12.0 | 15.5% | 8.3% | +1.3% | +18% / +69% |
| AZE.BRAzelis Group | 2.9 bn | 15.9 | 6.6% | 4.3% | +1.5% | +27% / −43% |
| MELE.BRMelexis | 2.2 bn | 12.6 | 30.7% | 18.4% | −3.3% | +1% / −37% |
| BEKB.BRNV Bekaert SA | 2.0 bn | 30.2 | 3.1% | 1.8% | −6.4% | +8% / −6% |
| FAGR.BRFagron | 1.8 bn | 22.0 | 16.7% | 9.2% | +14.3% | +14% / +39% |
| OBEL.BROrange Belgium | 1.5 bn | 36.4 | 4.2% | 2.1% | −1.5% | +16% / +65% |
| KIN.BRKinepolis Group | 1.3 bn | 33.1 | 19.3% | 7.0% | −4.5% | +58% / +9% |
| JEN.BRJensen Group | 710.7 m | 17.3 | 15.1% | 9.1% | +13.3% | +28% / +112% |
| BAR.BRBarco | 556.0 m | 9.0 | 7.9% | 6.7% | −9.9% | −49% / −59% |
| IBAB.BRIon Beam Applications | 479.6 m | 38.9 | 10.7% | 2.1% | +24.5% | +45% / +50% |
| DECB.BRDeceuninck | 337.1 m | 24.3 | 4.3% | 1.7% | −4.5% | +7% / +7% |
| CAMB.BRCampine | 270.8 m | 12.2 | 28.6% | 6.1% | +13.4% | −12% / +160% |
| CFEB.BRAannemingsmaatschappij Cfe | 269.3 m | 11.2 | 9.9% | 2.0% | −5.3% | +24% / +49% |
| EVS.BREvs Broadcast Equipment | 243.5 m | 6.0 | 20.8% | 21.7% | +14.3% | −49% / −36% |
| ECONB.BREconocom Group | 205.3 m | 39.5 | 1.2% | 0.2% | +4.3% | −4% / −37% |
| BPOST.BRBpost | 176.2 m | 2.7 | 6.3% | 1.5% | −2.6% | −53% / −81% |
| IMMO.BRImmobel | 172.2 m | — | -7.4% | -25.2% | −32.8% | −24% / −36% |
| MONNI.BRKeyware Technologies | 166.0 m | 157.4 | 3.5% | 4.5% | −5.9% | −8% / −20% |
| HYSG.BRHybrid Software Group PLC | 121.3 m | — | -2.5% | -5.5% | +7.2% | −4% / +13% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for OBEL.BR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 12.33 Total return -44% · Per year -44% | 21.86 Total return -2% · Per year -2% | 33.02 Total return 49% · Per year 49% |
| 3 years | 10.56 Total return -52% · Per year -22% | 21.20 Total return -5% · Per year -2% | 35.36 Total return 59% · Per year 17% |
| 5 years | 9.04 Total return -59% · Per year -16% | 20.56 Total return -7% · Per year -2% | 37.86 Total return 71% · Per year 11% |
- Exit P/E± 5.30
- Net margin± 3.71
- Annual revenue growth± 3.23
- Annual dilution± 0.31
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Orange Belgium is a Belgian telecommunications operator controlled by the French group Orange SA through Atlas Services Belgium, which holds the majority of its capital. The company has separated its network activity from its commercial business, a structural change relevant to investors. The consulted sources do not provide revenue figures for the period analysed.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
- Regulatory changes and geopolitical tensions, raised in Board discussions, could affect operations 1.
- Intense competition in the Belgian telecommunications market could pressure margins.
- Changes in the shareholder structure or in shareholder agreements could shift the balance of control.
Risks
- Dependence on the majority shareholderhigh
Atlas Services Belgium, part of the Orange group, controls the majority of the capital, which may limit the influence of minority shareholders over decisions 1.
- Regulatory riskmedium
Regulatory developments and the geopolitical environment are discussed as points of attention by the Board of Directors 1.
- Share liquiditymedium
The low share of shares in circulation may make trading more difficult 1.
- Internal restructuringmedium
The transfer of staff and the creation of a new entity may generate costs and execution risks in the short term 1.
- Shareholder agreementslow
An agreement between shareholders may restrict share transfers and the exercise of voting rights 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Support from a large international group and a structured separation of the network could back long-term investment plans 1.
- Formalised governance and transparency towards investors may reduce uncertainty for shareholders 1.
- If synergies with the Orange group materialise, the company could improve operating efficiency.
What would break the thesis
- Majority control by the Orange group may limit strategic autonomy and the influence of minority shareholders 1.
- The low free float and shareholder agreements may make the shares harder to trade 1.
- The regulatory environment and geopolitical tensions could pressure results, although the source gives no figures 1.
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Orange Belgium is a public limited company under Belgian law with a monistic governance structure, in which a Board of Directors provides oversight and an executive management runs day-to-day operations 1. The company is part of the Orange group, and control is exercised by Orange SA through the subsidiary Atlas Services Belgium 1. The annual report shows that the company set up Orange NetCo SA and transferred the staff of its wholesale activity to it, indicating a split between network and commercial services 1.
Segments
Network activity (wholesale)
The wholesale activity was transferred in 2025 to Orange NetCo SA, an entity that manages network infrastructure, together with the related staff 1. The separate structure may make the allocation of network investment versus commercial activity more transparent.
Commercial activity towards customers
The commercial side, oriented towards final and corporate customers, remains within Orange Belgium and is run by executive management under the supervision of the Board of Directors 1. The source does not detail revenues for this segment.
Market context
The source consulted is the 2025 annual report and does not present data on the size of the Belgian telecommunications market or the company's market share. Regulatory and geopolitical developments are mentioned in the Board's minutes, without associated figures 1.
Competitive position
The source does not identify direct competitors of Orange Belgium in the Belgian market. The company operates in a competitive environment, but competitor names and shares do not appear in the annual report analysed 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202507 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202507 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Orange Belgium · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.