olivLaw · European equity research
PostNL N.V. PNL.AS
Netherlands · Euronext Amsterdam · ISIN NL0009739416 · Vertical: Listed companies from Netherlands
PostNL is the leading logistics and postal provider in the Netherlands, which has moved from mail to e-commerce and platform logistics. The Breakthrough 2028 strategy relies on growth in parcels, international platforms and a transformed postal service, in a context of cost pressure and changing regulation. Revenue in 2025 was 3,324 million euro.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, PostNL N.V. (PNL.AS) stock was 0.81 EUR (−1.81% on the day), with market capitalisation 4 EUR, dividend yield 368,550,368.55%, beta 0.58, 52-week range 0.79–1.26 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 45.1
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 0.79 – 0.85
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.37 · band width 7.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 0.85 / 0.98
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.01 / -0.01
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −4.2% | −0.6% | −3.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −12.9% | −4.2% | −8.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | −14.0% | +4.3% | −18.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | −23.1% | +7.5% | −30.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | −14.9% | +9.9% | −24.8 pp | −0.2% |
| 3 years | −47.8% | +49.8% | −97.6 pp | +2.2% |
| 5 years | −79.5% | +42.8% | −122.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.2 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.3 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +2.7% | +2.2% |
| Net income | 55.0 m | 17.0 m | -16.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −69.1% | −194.1% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.11 | 3,400,000.00 | -3,200,000.00 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +3,008,849,457.5% | −194.1% |
| net % | 1.7% | 0.5% | -0.5% |
| Free cash flow | 170.0 m | 137.0 m | 107.0 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 515.0 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 811.0 m EUR
- Net debt
- 296.0 m EUR
- Equity
- 178.0 m EUR
- Total assets
- 2.2 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 4.56x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- -8.4%
- ROA
- -0.7%
- FCF margin
- 3.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.2 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.3 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 84.0 m | 37.0 m | 11.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 78.0 m | 25.0 m | -18.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 24.0 m | 6.0 m | 1.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 55.0 m | 17.0 m | -16.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.11 | 3,400,000.00 | -3,200,000.00 | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.06 | 4,400,000.00 | 3,000,000.00 | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 518.0 m | 303.0 m | 515.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 9.0 m | 10.0 m | 9.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 491.0 m | 467.0 m | 449.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 207.0 m | 207.0 m | 167.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 200.0 m | 206.0 m | 205.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 2.2 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 368.0 m | 10.0 m | 115.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 299.0 m | 596.0 m | 696.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 200.0 m | 205.0 m | 178.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 486.7 m | 5 | 5 | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 222.0 m | 168.0 m | 142.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 52.0 m | 31.0 m | 35.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 170.0 m ≈ | 137.0 m ≈ | 107.0 m ≈ | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -102.0 m | -211.0 m | -18.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -142.0 m | -173.0 m | 90.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 29.0 m | 22.0 m | 15.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 4 EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
35% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 40,800,000.00 – 55,636,363.64 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)40,800,000.00 – 55,636,363.64 (Mid 47,076,923.08)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 1.9% | 35 (vs peers) | 29% |
| Net margin · Quality | -0.5% | 36 (vs peers) | 18% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 2,628,992,629.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 24% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 368,550,368.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 14.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality35/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
PostNL N.V. (PNL.AS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.3 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth 2.2%; net margin -0.5%; ROE -8.5%.
The estimated value range is 40,800,000.00–55,636,363.64 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 47,076,923.08 EUR, the price of 0.81 EUR leaves a potential of 5,783,405,683.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 100.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF yield: 2,628,992,629.0%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 368,550,368.6%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 14.0%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Netherlands · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML.ASASML Holding N.V. | 485.6 bn | 47.6 | 44.2% | 31.3% | +15.6% | +38% / +101% |
| DSFIR.ASDSM-Firmenich AG | 33.7 bn | 120.5 | 1.2% | 2.2% | +20.4% | +60% / +30% |
| AD.ASKoninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V. | 31.2 bn | 13.9 | 15.3% | 2.5% | +3.4% | −3% / +30% |
| ASM.ASASM International N.V. | 31.2 bn | 43.3 | 18.7% | 22.8% | +8.2% | +34% / +35% |
| ADYEN.ASAdyen N.V. | 28.1 bn | 26.6 | 22.3% | 40.1% | +18.9% | −33% / −17% |
| HAL.ASHAL Trust | 15.5 bn | 9.7 | 10.5% | 12.8% | +1.2% | +22% / +47% |
| EXO.ASExor N.V. | 15.0 bn | — | -10.6% | — | −100.0% | +1% / −18% |
| BESI.ASBE Semiconductor Industries N.V. | 11.2 bn | 84.9 | 28.7% | 22.3% | −2.7% | +8% / +10% |
| AKZA.ASAkzo Nobel N.V. | 10.7 bn | 17.0 | 13.8% | 6.3% | −5.2% | +12% / −11% |
| AALB.ASAalberts N.V. | 4.5 bn | 25.4 | 7.2% | 5.7% | −5.3% | +48% / +13% |
| ARCAD.ASArcadis N.V. | 4.2 bn | 20.2 | 18.3% | 4.3% | −2.4% | +24% / +2% |
| BNJ.ASBanijay Group N.V. | 3.4 bn | 13.8 | 343.8% | 5.1% | +1.6% | −11% / −8% |
| BAMNB.ASKoninklijke BAM Groep N.V. | 3.3 bn | 41.8 | 9.1% | 1.3% | +2.9% | +47% / +400% |
| BFIT.ASBasic-Fit N.V. | 2.0 bn | 138.2 | 3.6% | 1.0% | +16.9% | +7% / +16% |
| CRBN.ASCorbion N.V. | 1.6 bn | 8.3 | 27.3% | 14.9% | +1.9% | +40% / +55% |
| ECMPA.ASEurocommercial Properties N.V. | 1.4 bn | 11.2 | 5.9% | 45.4% | +4.2% | −4% / +19% |
| FUR.ASFugro N.V. | 985.3 m | — | -1.5% | -1.1% | −18.8% | −0% / −49% |
| ACOMO.ASAcomo N.V. | 685.9 m | 15.2 | 10.7% | 3.3% | +7.6% | −3% / +37% |
| FAST.ASFastned B.V. | 663.0 m | — | -28.2% | -21.7% | +66.1% | +60% / +25% |
| FFARM.ASForFarmers N.V. | 479.4 m | 9.6 | 14.5% | 1.6% | +14.8% | +22% / +123% |
| BRNL.ASBrunel International N.V. | 383.2 m | 125.5 | 1.0% | 0.3% | −10.8% | −6% / −29% |
| ENVI.ASEnvipco Holding N.V. | 224.1 m | — | -12.7% | -11.9% | −20.8% | −25% / +47% |
| ALFEN.ASAlfen N.V. | 219.8 m | — | -0.1% | -0.0% | −10.7% | −4% / −78% |
| CMCOM.ASCM.com N.V. | 192.5 m | — | -22.2% | -1.5% | −5.4% | +23% / −30% |
| AJAX.ASAFC Ajax N.V. | 140.9 m | — | -18.0% | -21.0% | +17.2% | −15% / −29% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for PNL.AS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
PostNL is the leading logistics and postal provider in the Netherlands, which has moved from mail to e-commerce and platform logistics. The Breakthrough 2028 strategy relies on growth in parcels, international platforms and a transformed postal service, in a context of cost pressure and changing regulation. Revenue in 2025 was 3,324 million euro 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Dense network of sorting and distribution centres in the Netherlands and Belgium that enables reliable and efficient delivery.
- Diversified portfolio combining e-commerce, international platforms and postal services.
- Strong position in the Benelux and long-standing brand recognition in Dutch society.
Weaknesses
- The mail segment remains loss-making and the regulatory framework has not been updated.
- Labour costs are high and hard to offset through prices.
- Free cash flow was negative in 2025, which limits financial flexibility.
Opportunities
- Expanding the locker network and cross-border services could attract new customers.
- Platforms for SMEs and the asset-light model could increase share in Europe.
- Artificial intelligence and automation could reduce costs and improve service.
Threats
- Concentration of clients in large platforms could pressure prices and margins.
- Changes in customs regimes and tariffs could affect cross-border flows.
- Uncertainty about the reform of the postal law and the funding of the universal service.
Risks
- Competitive pressure and client concentrationhigh
Competition and dependence on a few dominant platforms could reduce prices and volumes if client relations deteriorate.
- Sustainability of the Mail segmenthigh
Without regulatory changes the Mail segment remains loss-making and the company cannot adjust the postal network as planned.
- Labour costsmedium
A tight labour market and statutory wage increases could raise costs faster than prices if productivity measures fall short.
- Customs rules and tariffsmedium
Changes to duty-free exemptions in the EU and US could alter costs and parcel flows, affecting cross-border deliveries.
- Cybersecurity and AI-related risksmedium
Wider digitalisation and artificial intelligence increase exposure to cyberattacks and to requirements for responsible data use.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If growth in e-commerce and locker usage continues, the company could benefit from higher volumes and better pricing.
- If the Breakthrough 2028 strategy succeeds, the shift to value and asset-light platforms could improve margins.
- A reform of the postal law could ease pressure on the Mail segment and clarify the long-term outlook.
What would break the thesis
- If competitive pressure from dominant platforms continues, margins could remain weak.
- Without new regulation the Mail segment could keep losing money, and costs could outweigh savings.
- If free cash flow stays negative, room for investment could remain limited.
What to watch
- Delivery of the normalised EBIT outlook of 40 to 70 million euro2026
- Volume trends in E-commerce and the impact of yield measuresQ1 2027
- Progress of the postal law reform and the decision on the Mail subsidy request2027
- Effects of EU and US customs changes on cross-border flowsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
PostNL is a logistics company in the Netherlands that evolved from a traditional mail operator into a full-service provider for e-commerce and postal services. According to the 2025 annual report, its business rests on a network of 37 sorting and distribution centres in the Netherlands, plus two centres in Belgium 1. From 1 January 2026 the company operates through three segments: E-commerce, Platforms and Mail 1.
The business model aims to help customers grow by optimising each stage of the logistics chain, from shipping to delivery. The company intends to shift from volume to value in e-commerce, extend international platforms through asset-light models, and transform postal service into a future-proof offering 1. The Breakthrough 2028 strategy, introduced in September 2025, sets this direction 1.
Spring Global Delivery Solutions, the international subsidiary, operates in 10 European countries and connects customers to 190 destinations worldwide through an asset-light network 1. Outside the Benelux the company partners with local and regional operators, which allows expansion without heavy investment in its own infrastructure 1.
Segments
E-commerce
The E-commerce segment covers parcel delivery, the out-of-home locker network and cross-border services through Cross Border Solutions. The company aims to move from volume to value, with targeted yield measures and strict cost control, and for 2026 it assumes volume growth between 1% and 3% 1.
Platforms
The Platforms segment includes MyParcel, a platform for SMEs, and Spring, the international operator. For 2026 the company expects double-digit revenue growth, supported by expansion in Europe and in Asia beyond China 1.
The Mail segment covers letters and printed materials in the Netherlands, a segment in structural decline. For 2026 the company expects a volume decline between 8% and 10% and cost savings of 30 to 40 million euro, and the postal service stays loss-making without regulatory reform 1.
Market context
The Benelux market and cross-border e-commerce are growing, but competitive pressure and client concentration in a few large platforms weigh on margins. Statutory minimum wage rose 2.78% in January and 2.42% in July 2025, raising labour costs, while inflation eased to 3.3% 1. Dutch growth could stay around 1% through 2027 if trade tensions persist 1.
Customs rules in Europe and the United States are changing quickly. The EU is considering removing the 150 euro duty-free threshold, while the US ended the de minimis exemption for goods under 800 dollars, which temporarily disrupted shipments 1. These changes could reshape the company's import processes 1.
Trends
- E-commerce growthtailwind
E-commerce continues to grow and drives parcel volumes, especially in the Benelux and in cross-border deliveries. Demand for lockers and flexible delivery rises, and the company is investing in its locker network.
- Decline of mailheadwind
Mail volumes are declining structurally and digitalisation accelerates this trend. Pressure on the Mail segment could affect profitability unless the postal law is revised.
- Digitalisation and artificial intelligencemixed
Automation, data and AI could improve efficiency and service quality. The company is moving to an AI-first approach, but these investments require resources and raise cybersecurity risks.
- Labour market and wage costsheadwind
The labour market remains tight and competition for part-time workers affects some regions. If wage pressure continues, labour costs could rise further.
Competitive position
Competition increased in 2025, with dominant e-commerce platforms and Asian operators gaining share. Customers increasingly choose between home delivery and pick-up points, and operators offering flexibility in peak periods are better positioned.
In cross-border deliveries competition comes from international networks that have expanded, and geopolitical risks and tariffs affect costs and routes. The company could gain share if it strengthens its European network and regional partnerships.
- DHL Group
International logistics operator based in Germany, also active in cross-border deliveries and pick-up points.
- DPD
European parcel network active in Benelux deliveries and e-commerce.
- bpost
Postal and logistics operator in Belgium, a direct competitor in the Benelux.
- Amazon LogisticsAMZN
In-house logistics network of an e-commerce platform, with influence over market conditions.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202504 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202504 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202404 Mar 2025
- Annual report 202404 Mar 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / PostNL N.V. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.