olivLaw · European equity research
Repsol, S.A. REP.MC
Spain · BME Madrid · ISIN ES0173516115 · Vertical: Listed companies from Spain
Repsol is an integrated energy group active in exploration and production, refining, chemicals and customers, with a solid liquidity position at the end of 2025 that covered short-term debt maturities 5.37 times. Its main risks this year relate to litigation over the La Pampilla oil spill in Peru, where the compensation sought exceeds 4,500 million dollars.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Repsol, S.A. (REP.MC) stock was 30.21 EUR (+1.55% on the day), with market capitalisation 35.4 bn EUR, P/E 18.6 on diluted EPS of 1.62 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.23%, beta -0.03, 52-week range 15.34–31.54 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 54.8
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 28.31 – 30.73
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.79 · band width 8.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 29.29 / 24.06
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.22 / 0.14
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +5.0% | −0.6% | +5.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | +18.7% | −4.2% | +22.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | +38.6% | +4.3% | +34.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | +89.7% | +7.5% | +82.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +88.3% | +9.9% | +78.4 pp | +4.9% |
| 3 years | +118.2% | +49.8% | +68.4 pp | +30.5% |
| 5 years | +179.4% | +42.8% | +136.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 5.5, median 8.2, max 9.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 3.2 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.9 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −44.6% | +8.1% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.46 | 1.43 | 1.62 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −41.9% | +13.3% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 3.3 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 27.6 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 59.4 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.54x
- ROE
- 6.7%
- ROA
- 3.1%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income | 4.3 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.7 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 2.4 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.4 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 6.7 bn ≈ | 4.9 bn ≈ | 5.1 bn ≈ | esef· 20 Oct 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | 4.4 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.8 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 1.1 bn | 562.0 m | 717.0 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 3.2 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.9 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.46 | 1.43 | 1.62 | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 0.90 | 0.98 | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 4.1 bn | 4.8 bn | 3.3 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Receivables | 8.0 bn | 7.4 bn | 6.6 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | 6.6 bn | 6.2 bn | 5.5 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 23.5 bn | 21.3 bn | 21.4 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 25.4 bn | 28.0 bn | — | esef· 08 May 2025verified |
| Total assets | 61.6 bn | 63.2 bn | 59.4 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 10.4 bn | 11.2 bn | 10.2 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 15.2 bn | 15.7 bn | 13.9 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 29.1 bn | 29.1 bn | 27.6 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 3 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 35.4 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
21% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 13.26 – 36.36 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E25.62 – 36.36 (Mid 32.31)19 companies used · median multiple 19.9x · quartiles 15.8x – 22.4xACS.MC, ADX.MC, AEDAS.MC, AENA.MC, AMS.MC, ANA.MC, CAF.MC, CLEO.MC, CMO.MC, DESA.MC, DIA.MC, EAT.MC, EDR.MC, ELE.MC, ENER.MC, ENO.MC, FAE.MC, FCC.MC, FDR.MC
- Dividend discount (DDM)13.26 – 18.08 (Mid 15.30)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.5x | 62 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 18.6x | 65 (vs peers) | 50% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.1% | 29 (on a fixed band) | 30% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial62/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial29/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial65/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
REPSOL SA (REP.MC). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 6.7%.
The estimated value range is 19.44–27.22 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 23.80 EUR, the price of 30.21 EUR leaves a potential of -21.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -26.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 2.1%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Spain · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELE.MCEndesa SA | 46.9 bn | 21.4 | 26.4% | 10.5% | +0.5% | +43% / +134% |
| AENA.MCAena S.m.e. SA | 42.6 bn | 19.9 | 24.2% | 34.0% | +8.9% | +21% / +79% |
| AMS.MCAmadeus It Group Sociedad Anonima | 26.2 bn | 19.8 | 26.9% | 20.5% | +6.1% | −6% / −5% |
| ACS.MCAcs Actividades De Construccion Y Servicios, S.A. | 21.9 bn | 23.0 | 19.9% | 1.9% | +19.7% | +7% / +134% |
| ANA.MCAcciona SA | 11.7 bn | 14.5 | 16.9% | 4.0% | +5.5% | +24% / +66% |
| FCC.MCFomento De Construcciones Y Contratas S.A. | 5.0 bn | 30.3 | 5.3% | 1.7% | +6.9% | −8% / −14% |
| FDR.MCFluidra S.A. | 3.8 bn | 21.3 | 10.9% | 7.8% | +4.1% | −17% / +4% |
| DIA.MCDistribuidora Internacional De Alimentacion SA | 2.7 bn | 20.6 | 165.6% | 2.2% | −2.7% | +51% / +380,733% |
| CMO.MCCementos Molins S.A. | 2.5 bn | 13.6 | 14.3% | 18.0% | −3.1% | +31% / unavailable |
| ENO.MCElecnor SA | 2.4 bn | 21.9 | 10.5% | 2.5% | +15.1% | −3% / +58% |
| ALM.MCAlmirall S.A. | 2.4 bn | 51.1 | 3.1% | 4.2% | +12.4% | −11% / +32% |
| FAE.MCFaes Farma SA | 1.5 bn | 19.3 | 10.8% | 13.0% | +23.7% | +3% / +57% |
| AEDAS.MCAedas Homes SA | 1.0 bn | 17.1 | 57.8% | 7.0% | −24.8% | +0% / +38% |
| EDR.MCEdreams Odigeo SA | 574.4 m | 11.5 | 21.0% | 7.8% | −0.4% | +40% / −24% |
| EAT.MCAmRest Holdings SE | 506.0 m | 31.4 | 4.3% | 0.6% | +0.1% | −34% / −61% |
| ADX.MCAudax Renovables S.A. | 468.5 m | 23.9 | 9.3% | 1.0% | −5.4% | −23% / −18% |
| ATRY.MCAtrys Health, S.A. | 200.4 m | — | -49.5% | -71.1% | +8.5% | −3% / −29% |
| ENER.MCEcoener, S.A. | 175.6 m | 32.2 | 4.2% | 6.4% | +3.6% | −34% / −6% |
| ADZ.MCAdolfo Dominguez SA | 62.9 m | 38.3 | 9.0% | 1.2% | +1.8% | +39% / +40% |
| DESA.MCDesarrollos Especiales De Sistemas De Anclaje S.A. | 44.8 m | 9.2 | 152.3% | 10.0% | +2.2% | +19% / unavailable |
| EZE.MCGrupo Ezentis SA | 29.0 m | — | — | -9.3% | +147.2% | −30% / −37% |
| CLEO.MCCompañia Levantina De Edificacion Y Obras Publicas SA | 17.3 m | 14.4 | 4.1% | 3.4% | +13.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AYC.MCAyco Grupo Inmobiliario, S.A. | 16.4 m | — | -33.8% | — | −100.0% | unavailable / unavailable |
| EBRO.MCEbro Foods, S.A. | 3.0 m | 0.0 | 10.0% | 7.7% | −4.0% | −0% / +19% |
| A3M.MCAtresmedia Corporacion De Medios De Comunicacion, S.A. | — | — | 7.9% | 6.9% | −2.7% | +13% / +60% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for REP.MC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Repsol is an integrated energy group active in exploration and production, refining, chemicals and customers, with a solid liquidity position at the end of 2025 that covered short-term debt maturities 5.37 times 1. Its main risks this year relate to litigation over the La Pampilla oil spill in Peru, where the compensation sought exceeds 4,500 million dollars 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group has a solid liquidity position, with undrawn credit lines covering short-term debt maturities 1.
- Activities are integrated along the value chain, from exploration to customers, which provides diversification 1.
- A conservative financial policy and diversified funding sources support business plans 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- La Pampilla litigationhigh
The INDECOPI civil suit and other proceedings related to the Peru spill could generate additional costs, although the company considers the risk of loss partly remote 1.
- Commodity price exposuremedium
Changes in oil and gas prices may affect results and net equity, even with hedging derivatives in place 1.
- Venezuelahigh
Receivables and loans tied to the Venezuelan business are partly impaired, and their recovery remains uncertain 1.
- Commercial credit risklow
Although exposure is spread across many customers, impairment of older receivables could affect results if economic conditions worsen 1.
- Advertising allegationsmedium
Complaints about biofuel advertising messages could lead to sanctions or reputational pressure 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If liquidity remains strong and environmental costs stay under control, the company could fund transition projects without major pressure.
- Value chain integration could support steadier margins during periods of price volatility.
- If renewable projects develop as planned, they could bring new revenue sources.
What would break the thesis
- If the Peru proceedings are prolonged or end in adverse rulings, costs could exceed current estimates.
- Exposure to Venezuela could lead to further impairments if recovery of receivables remains uncertain.
- If oil prices become highly volatile, hedges might not fully offset the effect on results.
What to watch
- Progress of the INDECOPI civil suit and the SEFR appeal2026
- Peruvian courts' decision on the La Pampilla criminal settlement2026
- Trend in Venezuelan receivables and impairmentsnext 10-K
- Pace of investment in renewable projects and biofuels2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
According to the 2025 annual report, Repsol operates through the Exploration and Production, Industrial, Customers, Gas, Energy and Renewables (GBC) and Corporate segments. The group manages exposure to oil, refined product, natural gas and electricity prices, sometimes using derivatives for economic hedging 1. Its financial structure is conservative, with undrawn credit lines and an investment-grade rating 1.
Intangible assets include goodwill, exploration permits and renewable energy projects, with a net book value of about 2,920 million euros at year end 2025 1. The group also holds Venezuelan interests through equity-accounted companies, which carry specific credit risks 1.
The company holds third-party bank guarantees as its main protection against credit risk and has used credit insurance for part of its customer operations 1.
Segments
Exploration and Production
The segment includes exploration permits, for example in Norway, and the goodwill allocated to it is small compared with other parts of the group 1.
Industrial and Customers
The Customers segment carries significant goodwill allocated to cash-generating units in Portugal and Spain, and the related assets rose over the period reviewed 1.
Gas, Energy and Renewables (GBC)
The GBC segment includes goodwill from the ConnectGen acquisition and renewable energy projects in Spain and the United States 1.
Market context
The group's sensitivity to commodity prices is significant, with a 10% move in prices changing results and net equity 1. The market remains volatile, and liquidity and available credit limits are key to the company's ability to absorb shocks.
Exposure to capital markets is moderate, with a 50 basis point interest rate sensitivity affecting results and equity within limits identified in the report 1.
Trends
- Oil price volatilitymixed
Swings in oil and refined product prices could influence refining margins and group results if prices stay volatile 1.
- Energy transitionmixed
Growth in renewable projects and biofuels could open new revenue sources, though these activities also bring regulatory and reputational pressure 1.
- Liquidity and funding needstailwind
The group's diversified funding policy supports access to financial markets, which could ease pressure in high-rate environments 1.
- Environmental litigation riskheadwind
Proceedings related to the Peru spill, including civil and criminal actions, could continue for a long time and may affect future costs 1.
Competitive position
Repsol operates in an integrated energy sector where large oil companies compete for resources, customers and financing for the energy transition. The annual report does not explicitly name competitors, so competitive positioning must be judged from the activities the company describes 1.
Competitive pressure is most visible in the customer segment and in renewable projects, where rival companies invest in similar types of assets.
- TotalEnergies SE
European integrated energy company in the same sector, active in oil, gas and renewables; not named in the official source, so its role as a competitor is a general observation.
- Shell plc
Integrated energy company competing in fuel markets and in lower-emission energy projects; its role as a competitor is a general observation.
- BP plc
UK-based integrated oil company active in the same refining and marketing segments; its role as a competitor is a general observation.
- Eni S.p.A.
Italian integrated energy company competing in exploration, refining and renewables; its role as a competitor is a general observation.
News & filings
In the press
- Repsol Says 90% of Its Crude Supply Risks Breaching New EU RulesBloomberg Markets · 24 Sept 2026 · EN
- Spaniolii de la Repsol semnează un acord de explorare petrolieră în Venezuela / Delcy Rodriguez: ”Aveţi uşile deschise în Venezuela pentru a continua să vă dezvoltaţi investiţiile”G4Media · 17 Jun 2026 · RO
- Venezuela: Spaniolii de la Repsol semnează un acord de explorare petrolierăAgerpres · 17 Jun 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202520 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Repsol, S.A. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.