olivLaw · European equity research
Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S STG.CO
Denmark · Nasdaq Copenhagen · ISIN DK0060696300 · Vertical: Listed companies from Denmark
Scandinavian Tobacco Group is a Danish group that makes and distributes cigars, smoking tobacco and, increasingly, nicotine pouches, with a significant part of its business anchored in the United States. It is currently aiming to stabilise its financial performance in 2026 while selling the fine-cut tobacco brands BREAK and Moro, which could reduce debt and increase strategic flexibility. First-half results show net sales of 4193 million DKK.
At the close of 06 Nov 2026, Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S (STG.CO) stock was 77.00 DKK (−1.41% on the day), with beta 0.38, 52-week range 64.20–103.60 DKK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 53.2
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 75.75 – 78.90
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.40 · band width 4.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 75.32 / 75.73
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.62 / 0.74
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +5.8% | −0.6% | +6.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | +6.6% | −4.2% | +10.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | +10.2% | +4.3% | +5.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −19.4% | +7.5% | −26.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | −11.0% | +9.9% | −20.9 pp | −7.6% |
| 3 years | −28.2% | +49.8% | −78.1 pp | +1.3% |
| 5 years | −36.9% | +42.8% | −79.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
EPS unavailable in the issuer's structured filings (e.g. a partnership reports per unit, not per share).
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year |
|---|
| Revenue |
| Revenue YoY |
| Net income |
| Net income YoY |
| Diluted EPS |
| Diluted EPS YoY |
| net % |
| Free cash flow |
Balance sheet & financial health
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Balance sheet · DKK
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 160.1 m | 197.7 m | 61.6 m | esef· 08 Sept 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | 3.2 bn | 3.7 bn | esef· 08 Sept 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 5.3 bn | 5.6 bn | esef· 08 Sept 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | esef· 08 Sept 2026verified |
| Goodwill | — | 5.1 bn | 5.2 bn | esef· 08 Sept 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 16.3 bn | 16.6 bn | esef· 08 Sept 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 08 Sept 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 3.7 bn | 3.7 bn | esef· 08 Sept 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 2.7 bn | 3.0 bn | esef· 08 Sept 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 7.7 bn | 8.0 bn | esef· 08 Sept 2026verified |
| Equity | 9.2 bn | 8.6 bn | 8.6 bn | esef· 08 Sept 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 1 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 4.2% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
06 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
4% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 1 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 4.2% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.9x | 90 (on a fixed band) | 100% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial90/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
SCANDINAVIAN TOBACCO GROUP A/S (STG.CO). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-06-30.
Financial indicators are unavailable.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 1 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 4.2% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 1.9x
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Denmark · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEMANT.CODemant A | 79.7 bn | 51.6 | 15.0% | 6.7% | +2.5% | +72% / +30% |
| PNDORA.COPandora A | 69.4 bn | 13.3 | 133.4% | 16.1% | unavailable | +17% / −2% |
| NEWCAP.CONewcap Holding A | 64.6 bn | 13,000.0 | 29.1% | 41.6% | −99.9% | +118% / +60% |
| ISS.COIss A | 49.6 bn | 19.3 | 27.7% | 3.1% | +1.1% | +40% / +152% |
| BAVA.COBavarian Nordic A | 18.8 bn | 13.7 | 10.9% | 22.0% | unavailable | +30% / +44% |
| GN.COGn Store Nord A | 18.0 bn | 27.6 | 6.3% | 6.8% | unavailable | +19% / −23% |
| NETC.CONetcompany Group A | 16.5 bn | 65.0 | 7.2% | 3.3% | unavailable | +9% / +61% |
| BIOMAR.COBiomar Group A | 12.0 bn | 16.9 | 28.3% | 4.3% | −0.5% | unavailable / unavailable |
| JDAN.COJeudan A | 11.0 bn | 11.0 | 7.7% | 57.1% | unavailable | +1% / −9% |
| DFDS.CODfds A | 8.4 bn | — | -0.2% | -0.1% | +1.9% | +69% / −27% |
| GUBRA.COGubra A | 4.9 bn | 2.9 | 149.6% | 64.1% | +892.2% | −39% / +161% |
| MATAS.COMatas A | 3.1 bn | 13.0 | 6.6% | 2.8% | +4.7% | −31% / −21% |
| CBRAIN.COCbrain A | 2.3 bn | 52.4 | 13.8% | 17.2% | −6.2% | −24% / −54% |
| BO.COBang & Olufsen A | 1.7 bn | — | -10.0% | -4.3% | −3.3% | −23% / +14% |
| COLUM.COColumbus A | 1.2 bn | 82.9 | 2.0% | 0.9% | unavailable | −7% / +28% |
| NNIT.CONnit A | 989.7 m | — | -3.0% | -1.3% | −3.4% | −18% / −55% |
| NORTHM.CONorth Media A | 882.1 m | 13.3 | 5.5% | 5.1% | −0.4% | +12% / −15% |
| FFARMS.COFirstfarms A | 787.5 m | — | -2.3% | -5.4% | −16.5% | −9% / −1% |
| HUSCO.COHusCompagniet A | 524.7 m | — | -1.3% | -0.9% | +28.7% | −38% / −45% |
| BIOPOR.COBioporto A | 451.6 m | — | -117.6% | -203.8% | +11.2% | −9% / −53% |
| GABR.COGabriel Holding A | 429.4 m | 57.5 | 2.8% | 1.4% | +6.7% | −10% / −29% |
| GREENM.COGreenMobility A | 386.6 m | 11.7 | 74.3% | 21.5% | +20.0% | −20% / +88% |
| EGNETY.COEgnsinvest Ejendomme Tyskland A | 320.0 m | 13.0 | 4.0% | 40.9% | −2.6% | −21% / +11% |
| PFINV.COPapirfabrikken Invest A | 299.0 m | 13.4 | 5.4% | 29.7% | +0.9% | −3% / +35% |
| CEMAT.COCemat A | 214.4 m | 3.5 | 28.7% | 37.5% | +318.0% | −9% / +4% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for STG.CO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Scandinavian Tobacco Group is a Danish group that makes and distributes cigars, smoking tobacco and, increasingly, nicotine pouches, with a significant part of its business anchored in the United States. It is currently aiming to stabilise its financial performance in 2026 while selling the fine-cut tobacco brands BREAK and Moro, which could reduce debt and increase strategic flexibility 1. First-half results show net sales of 4193 million DKK 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has strong main brands in U.S. handmade cigars and a leading position in European machine-rolled cigars.
- Free cash flow is supported by stable operations and careful working capital management, and recovery of trade receivables supported cash flow in the early part of the year.
- The Focus2030 strategy provides a clear set of priorities, including concentration on main brands and divestment of less core assets, which strengthens financial flexibility.
Weaknesses
- Traditional tobacco volumes in Europe are declining and the company has lost market share in France and the Netherlands, showing vulnerability in the machine-rolled cigar segment.
- The EBIT margin before special items fell compared with the prior year and trademark amortisation weighed on results, indicating pressure on profitability.
- Leverage remains high relative to the company's target and dependence on a few main brands increases exposure to supply problems.
Opportunities
- Nicotine pouches have growth potential in new markets, and extension into the menthol segment and new countries could contribute importantly to growth targets.
- The sale of BREAK and Moro could free capital for investment in priority areas and for debt reduction if the transaction completes.
- Growth in the U.S. handmade cigar segment could support sales over the medium term if commercial execution continues.
Threats
- Changing consumer behaviour and restrictive regulation could reduce demand for traditional tobacco products.
- Strong competition in European and U.S. markets could pressure prices and margins, especially if competing brands gain share.
- Fluctuations in the USD/DKK exchange rate could affect reported revenue, and raw material supply disruptions could return.
Risks
- Raw tobacco quality issuehigh
A rare raw tobacco problem affected the Signature brand, caused share losses in France and product write-downs, and normalisation of production is expected in the third quarter, which could delay recovery.
- Decline in the machine-rolled cigar markethigh
Volumes in European markets are falling and the company expects a 3% decline for the full year, which could continue to affect sales and margins.
- USD/DKK exchange ratemedium
Reported revenues are sensitive to the dollar, and a ten percentage point change could materially move reported net sales.
- Regulatory and consumer behaviour riskmedium
Regulatory changes or shifts in consumer preferences could reduce demand for traditional products, and the company rates external disruption risk as high.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If stabilisation of machine-rolled cigar volumes continues and the U.S. segment keeps growing, the company could return toward earlier margins and reach its Focus2030 objectives.
- Growth in nicotine pouches and completion of the BREAK and Moro sale could strengthen the balance sheet and open room for investment in the fastest-growing categories.
- Free cash flow before acquisitions could exceed the guidance range if collection of receivables and cost control continue.
What would break the thesis
- If the decline in traditional tobacco volumes in Europe accelerates, revenue and margins could fall further than the company expects.
- If the raw tobacco quality problem or supply disruptions return, share losses could become lasting in key markets.
- If the transaction with Japan Tobacco is delayed or does not complete, debt reduction could stay below the company's target for longer.
What to watch
- Completion of the BREAK and Moro sale to Japan Tobaccoend of 2026
- Normalisation of raw tobacco production for the Signature brandQ3 2026
- Development of machine-rolled cigar volume share in the seven key European marketsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The Scandinavian Tobacco Group operates through three reporting divisions: Europe Branded, North America Branded & Rest of World and North America Online & Retail, and its Focus2030 strategy aims to build a company with a stable base of cigars and smoking tobacco, a handmade cigar business anchored in the U.S. and a larger nicotine pouch business 1. Its main categories are machine-rolled cigars and smoking tobacco, handmade cigars and, within Next Generation Products, nicotine pouches under the main brand XQS 1. The company targets a ROIC above 11% in 2030 as part of Focus2030 1.
Segments
Machine-rolled Cigars & Smoking Tobacco
This segment generated 2094 million DKK of net sales in the first six months of 2026, with organic decline of 4% and a gross margin of 51.6% before special items 1. Volumes in European markets have declined, and the company aims to protect profit and cash flow by investing in the power brands Signature, La Paz, Mehari's and Panter 1.
Handmade Cigars
The handmade cigar segment, anchored in the U.S., grew organically by 6% in the first six months of 2026, with net sales of 1536 million DKK 1. The company estimates the total market declined slightly less than the 4% decline expected for the full year, and its branded business gained market share in business-to-business 1.
Next Generation Products
This segment, which includes nicotine pouches, accounts for less than 5% of group sales and XQS grew organically by 12% in the first six months, an area where the company is seeking expansion including into Austria 1. Category sales fell 5% in the half because of the streamlining of Ace and Gritt, but growth recovered in the second quarter 1.
Trends
- Decline in traditional tobacco volumesheadwind
European machine-rolled cigar and smoking tobacco markets are contracting, and the company expects volume declines of around 3% for the full year, which could continue to weigh on sales 1.
- Stabilisation of U.S. handmade cigarstailwind
The U.S.-anchored segment grew organically in the first half and branded business gained share in business-to-business, which could support sales if the trend continues 1.
- Growth in nicotine pouchestailwind
The nicotine pouch category is expanding through the XQS brand and entry into new markets, and the share in Sweden has increased, which could make it an important growth source 1.
- Changing consumer behaviour and regulatory riskmixed
Changes in consumer behaviour are considered the largest uncertainty for revenue, and external risks are rated high, which could make performance mixed 1.
Competitive position
The company operates in a competitive market, especially in U.S. handmade cigars, where it says commercial execution and focus on its power brands has delivered encouraging results 1. In European machine-rolled cigars and smoking tobacco, competition and pricing pressure are important factors, and the company's volume share has slipped slightly 1.
In nicotine pouches the company relies on its position in Sweden and is expanding into other countries, but its share in the UK remains close to one percent, showing the position is still weak there 1. The risk is that a stronger competitor could limit growth of the XQS brand if the company does not expand quickly 1.
- Japan Tobacco Inc.
Buyer of the BREAK and Moro brands under a contract manufacturing agreement of up to three years, showing a commercial relationship and a competitor in the fine-cut tobacco space.
- Altria GroupMO
U.S. tobacco company that could compete in tobacco and nicotine pouch segments in the U.S., though this source provides no comparative detail.
- British American Tobacco
Global competitor in tobacco and nicotine pouches, present in European markets, with no comparative detail in the source provided.
- Swedish Match
Swedish company active in nicotine pouches, a market where the company tracks its share amid local competition.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202608 Sept 2026
- Annual report 202627 May 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2026-06-30 (ESEF) · SEC / Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S · 30 Jun 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.