olivLaw · European equity research
TCM Group A/S TCM.CO
Denmark · Nasdaq Copenhagen · ISIN DK0060915478 · Vertical: Listed companies from Denmark
TCM Group is Scandinavia's third-largest kitchen manufacturer, with a major part of its business in Denmark and sales through franchise stores and independent retailers. In the first half of 2026 revenue grew by 12.2%, and the company kept its full-year guidance, while noting that ongoing geopolitical uncertainty could weigh on consumer demand.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, TCM Group A/S (TCM.CO) stock was 68.40 DKK (+1.48% on the day), with market capitalisation 708.6 k DKK, P/E 9.1 on diluted EPS of 7.48 DKK over the last 12 months, dividend yield 4.37%, beta 0.25, 52-week range 62.60–73.40 DKK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 56.4
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 66.26 – 68.60
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.92 · band width 3.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 66.96 / 67.57
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.30 / 0.22
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +3.0% | +0.4% | +2.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −2.8% | −3.3% | +0.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | +1.5% | +4.0% | −2.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | +0.6% | +8.1% | −7.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | −1.4% | +10.7% | −12.1 pp | −7.7% |
| 3 years | +77.7% | +50.1% | +27.6 pp | +3.3% |
| 5 years | −58.3% | +43.6% | −101.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 1-quarter history (min 9.1, median 9.1, max 9.1; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2025 |
|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.3 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable |
| Net income | 77.8 k |
| Net income YoY | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 7.48 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable |
| net % | 6.1% |
| Free cash flow | 36.6 k |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 30.8 k DKK
- Financial debt
- unavailable DKK
- Net debt
- unavailable DKK
- Equity
- 628.7 k DKK
- Total assets
- 1.4 m DKK
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.82x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 5.6%
- FCF margin
- 2.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (DKK)
Income statement · DKK
| Line | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.3 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 988.7 k | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 290.5 k | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Operating income | 116.3 k | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 93.9 k | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Income tax | 16.1 k | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Net income | 77.8 k | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 7.48 | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 2.99 | esef· 27 May 2026derived |
Balance sheet · DKK
| Line | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|
| Cash | 30.8 k | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Receivables | 133.0 k | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Inventories | 102.0 k | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Current assets | 265.8 k | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 519.7 k | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.4 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 326.1 k | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Equity | 628.7 k | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 10.4 k | esef· 27 May 2026derived |
Cash flow · DKK
| Line | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 87.4 k | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Capex | 50.8 k | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 36.6 k ≈ | esef· 27 May 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -122.8 k | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 36.8 k | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 31.0 k | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 8.3 k | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 708.6 k DKK
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
46% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 6.1% | 66 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 47.0% | 24 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.7x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 9.1x | 82 (vs peers) | 23% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 5.2% | 65 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 5.5% | 79 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 84.7% | 50 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality45/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns68/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation74/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
TCM Group A/S (TCM.CO). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.3 m DKK in 2025; net margin 6.1%; ROE 13.0%.
The estimated value range is 57.66–106.83 DKK per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 66.57 DKK, the price of 68.40 DKK leaves a potential of -2.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -2.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- P/E (TTM): 9.1x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.5%
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: 47.0%
- Current ratio: 0.7x
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Denmark · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEMANT.CODemant A | 79.7 bn | 51.6 | 15.0% | 6.7% | +2.5% | +72% / +30% |
| NEWCAP.CONewcap Holding A | 65.3 bn | 13,125.0 | 29.1% | 41.6% | −99.9% | +121% / +62% |
| ISS.COIss A | 50.8 bn | 19.8 | 27.7% | 3.1% | +1.1% | +43% / +158% |
| BAVA.COBavarian Nordic A | 19.2 bn | 13.9 | 10.9% | 22.0% | unavailable | +33% / +47% |
| GN.COGn Store Nord A | 18.1 bn | 27.7 | 6.3% | 6.8% | unavailable | +20% / −23% |
| NETC.CONetcompany Group A | 16.8 bn | 66.2 | 7.2% | 3.3% | unavailable | +11% / +64% |
| BIOMAR.COBiomar Group A | 12.1 bn | 16.9 | 28.3% | 4.3% | −0.5% | unavailable / unavailable |
| JDAN.COJeudan A | 11.1 bn | 11.1 | 7.7% | 57.1% | unavailable | +2% / −7% |
| DFDS.CODfds A | 8.7 bn | — | -0.2% | -0.1% | +1.9% | +73% / −25% |
| GUBRA.COGubra A | 4.8 bn | 2.9 | 149.6% | 64.1% | +892.2% | −40% / +157% |
| MATAS.COMatas A | 3.1 bn | 12.9 | 6.6% | 2.8% | +4.7% | −31% / −21% |
| CBRAIN.COCbrain A | 2.4 bn | 54.7 | 13.8% | 17.2% | −6.2% | −21% / −52% |
| BO.COBang & Olufsen A | 1.7 bn | — | -10.0% | -4.3% | −3.3% | −24% / +12% |
| COLUM.COColumbus A | 1.2 bn | 84.0 | 2.0% | 0.9% | unavailable | −5% / +30% |
| NNIT.CONnit A | 1.0 bn | — | -3.0% | -1.3% | −3.4% | −16% / −54% |
| NORTHM.CONorth Media A | 873.1 m | 13.2 | 5.5% | 5.1% | −0.4% | +11% / −16% |
| FFARMS.COFirstfarms A | 789.8 m | — | -2.3% | -5.4% | −16.5% | −9% / −1% |
| HUSCO.COHusCompagniet A | 507.2 m | — | -1.3% | -0.9% | +28.7% | −41% / −46% |
| BIOPOR.COBioporto A | 456.2 m | — | -117.6% | -203.8% | +11.2% | −8% / −53% |
| GABR.COGabriel Holding A | 429.4 m | 57.5 | 2.8% | 1.4% | +6.7% | −10% / −29% |
| GREENM.COGreenMobility A | 392.5 m | 11.9 | 74.3% | 21.5% | +20.0% | −19% / +91% |
| EGNETY.COEgnsinvest Ejendomme Tyskland A | 320.0 m | 13.0 | 4.0% | 40.9% | −2.6% | −21% / +11% |
| PFINV.COPapirfabrikken Invest A | 300.9 m | 13.5 | 5.4% | 29.7% | +0.9% | −3% / +36% |
| CEMAT.COCemat A | 213.9 m | 3.5 | 28.7% | 37.5% | +318.0% | −9% / +3% |
| GJ.COGlunz & Jensen Holding A | 145.6 m | 17.1 | 7.5% | 5.9% | +9.6% | +6% / +17% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TCM.CO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
TCM Group is Scandinavia's third-largest kitchen manufacturer, with a major part of its business in Denmark and sales through franchise stores and independent retailers. In the first half of 2026 revenue grew by 12.2% 1, and the company kept its full-year guidance, while noting that ongoing geopolitical uncertainty could weigh on consumer demand 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company holds a leading regional position, with a multi-brand model covering the full price range and production largely integrated in-house 1.
- The Group generated strong operating cash flow in the first half, with a high cash conversion ratio 1.
- The wide store network and the e-commerce channel give access to different customers and diversify revenue sources 1.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on the Danish market exposes the company to a single economy and to weak residential construction 1.
- Gross margin and adjusted EBITA margin came under cost pressure, and operating expenses rose with recent acquisitions 1.
- Net interest-bearing debt increased after the Celebert acquisition, which limits financial flexibility 1.
Opportunities
Threats
- Geopolitical uncertainty could reduce consumer confidence and demand for new kitchens 1.
- Higher raw material and freight costs, linked to oil prices, could continue to squeeze margins 1.
- Macroeconomic risks, including a possible downturn or cyber risks, could directly affect revenue and profitability 1.
Risks
- Weak construction demandhigh
The sustained low level of housing construction in the project market continues to pressure the operating environment, particularly in Denmark 1.
- Input cost pressuremedium
Higher raw material and freight costs could reduce gross margin if they cannot be passed on fully in prices 1.
- Higher indebtednessmedium
Net interest-bearing debt rose after the Celebert acquisition and financial costs increased, which could limit investment capacity 1.
- Change of chief executivemedium
The change of chief executive effective August 2026 could bring strategic changes and a shift in execution pace during the transition 1.
- Macroeconomic and cyber riskslow
An economic downturn, cyber risks or a widespread financial crisis could directly affect revenue and results 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the orders booked in the second quarter convert into revenue, the Group could reach its annual guidance, supported by a solid order book 1.
- The leading regional position, multi-brand model and strong cash flows could provide stability in uncertain periods 1.
- A recovery in Norway and the integration of Celebert could add growth on top of the Danish base 1.
What would break the thesis
- If geopolitical uncertainty weighs on consumer confidence, revenue could remain below guidance, particularly in Denmark 1.
- Rising raw material and freight costs could keep compressing margins, and net profit could stay below the prior-year level 1.
- Higher debt after acquisitions could limit flexibility and investment, especially if acquisition returns are slow to materialise 1.
What to watch
- Delivery of full-year guidance for revenue and adjusted EBITA2027
- Development of gross margin against raw material costsQ3 2026
- Effects of the change of chief executive on strategynext 10-K
- Level of net interest-bearing debt and leverage after acquisitionsQ4 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
TCM Group produces and sells kitchens, bathroom furniture and storage solutions under a multi-brand strategy in which the main brand is Svane Køkkenet and the secondary brands are Tvis Køkken, Nettoline, AUBO and private label 1. Manufacturing is largely in-house across four factories in Tvis and Aulum, and more than 90% is made to a specific customer order 1. The Group also supplies the fully owned e-commerce kitchen business Celebert, which operates under the brands kitchn.dk, billigskabe.dk, Celebert and Just Wood 1.
Sales are mainly made through franchise stores and independent kitchen retailers, and in the first half of 2026 Denmark accounted for most of revenue while Norway grew strongly after a period of very low market activity 1. The company renegotiated its agreement with the hardware chain Optimera, which holds exclusive rights to sell AUBO products in Norway, with the new term at five years 1.
In August 2026 the Group agreed to sell Nettoline Kolding, in line with its strategy, and the transaction was not expected to have a material impact 1. The change of chief executive announced in April 2026, effective 1 August 2026, marks a new phase for the company 1.
Segments
Kitchens and bathroom furniture made in Denmark
The Group reports a single operating segment covering the production and sale of kitchens, bathrooms and storage, with revenue broken down by region and by category including core business, third-party sales and retailers 1.
Sales to retailers and third parties
Revenue from retailers rose as a share of the total in the first half of 2026, and third-party sales also grew, pointing to a broader distribution mix 1.
Market context
Norway has become a growth point as trading conditions recovered after a period of very low activity, but in small markets results depend on order volumes, which improved toward the end of the second quarter 1.
Trends
- Raw material and freight cost pressureheadwind
Rising oil prices pushed up prices for many raw materials and freight, which weighed on gross margin, though internal efficiency projects and a shift toward B2C partly offset this 1.
- Geopolitical uncertainty and consumer sentimentheadwind
Management kept its full-year guidance given that ongoing geopolitical uncertainty could negatively affect consumer sentiment and demand 1.
- Order intake recovery into the second halftailwind
Order intake rose significantly year on year and the Group entered the second half with a strong order book, which could support revenue if the trend continues 1.
- ERP investment and acquisition integrationmixed
Investments were mainly tied to the ongoing ERP project and the Celebert acquisition, and operating costs rose, although integrating acquisitions could bring synergies over the medium term 1.
Competitive position
The company's reports do not explicitly name competitors, so its competitive position rests on being Scandinavia's third-largest kitchen manufacturer with a multi-brand model covering the full price range 1.
Competitive pressure is most visible in the franchise and independent retailer channels, where the Group relies on its wide store network and differentiated brands to hold its share 1.
- Larger Scandinavian kitchen manufacturers
Larger competitors in Scandinavia are not identified in the source, and the Group ranks third in the region 1.
- Hardware store chains
Chains such as Optimera, which distribute products in markets like Norway, can act both as sales channels and as price competition 1.
- Local kitchen furniture makers
Regional kitchen furniture producers in Denmark compete for the same customers in the franchise and independent retail channel 1.
- Online furniture platforms
Online sellers of kitchens and furniture can compete with the Group's e-commerce businesses such as Celebert 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202602 Sept 2026
- Annual report 202627 May 2026
- Annual report 202527 May 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2026-06-30 (ESEF) · SEC / TCM Group A/S · 30 Jun 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.