olivLaw · European equity research
Telefónica, S.A. TEF.MC
Spain · BME Madrid · ISIN ES0178430E18 · Vertical: Listed companies from Spain
Telefónica, S.A. is a telecommunications group operating in several countries, whose financing structure includes bonds and hybrid instruments. In 2025 the group recycled negative conversion differences of 1,476 million EUR into profit and loss, which makes exposure to Latin American currencies a relevant watch item. The company also closed a fibre agreement with Vodafone España.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Telefónica, S.A. (TEF.MC) stock was 3.45 EUR (−0.03% on the day), with market capitalisation 18.4 bn EUR, dividend yield 10.10%, beta 0.24, 52-week range 3.20–4.10 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 54.5
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 3.17 – 3.51
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.82 · band width 10.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 3.46 / 3.65
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.01 / -0.03
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +2.2% | −0.6% | +2.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | −6.7% | −4.2% | −2.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | −10.9% | +4.3% | −15.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | −1.3% | +7.5% | −8.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | −4.9% | +9.9% | −14.8 pp | +6.7% |
| 3 years | −7.4% | +49.8% | −57.3 pp | +31.5% |
| 5 years | −8.4% | +42.8% | −51.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 40.0 bn | 40.7 bn | 35.7 bn | 35.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +1.6% | −12.3% | −1.5% |
| Net income | 2.0 bn | -892.0 m | -49.0 m | -4.3 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −144.4% | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 0.31 | -0.20 | -0.06 | -0.81 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −164.5% | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | 5.0% | -2.2% | -0.1% | -12.3% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 6.6 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 17.8 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 92.0 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.89x
- ROE
- -21.3%
- ROA
- -4.5%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 40.0 bn | 40.7 bn | 35.7 bn | 35.1 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | 4.1 bn | 2.6 bn | 4.2 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 8.8 bn | 8.8 bn | 7.6 bn | 7.4 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 12.9 bn ≈ | 11.4 bn ≈ | 11.8 bn ≈ | 8.7 bn ≈ | esef· 20 Oct 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 3.0 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 3.0 bn | -1.5 bn | 2.6 bn | -1.4 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 641.0 m | -899.0 m | 617.0 m | 365.0 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 2.0 bn | -892.0 m | -49.0 m | -4.3 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.31 | -0.20 | -0.06 | -0.81 | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.22 | 0.48 | 2.31 | 0.35 | esef· 20 Oct 2026derived |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 7.2 bn | 7.2 bn | 8.1 bn | 6.6 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | 929.0 m | 954.0 m | 862.0 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 20.8 bn | 22.4 bn | 22.0 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | 22.9 bn | 21.4 bn | 18.2 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Goodwill | — | 18.7 bn | 16.5 bn | 15.8 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | 11.4 bn | 9.9 bn | 9.1 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 104.3 bn | 100.5 bn | 92.0 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 23.4 bn | 25.7 bn | 24.8 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 31.7 bn | 27.1 bn | 22.7 bn | 17.8 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 6.5 bn | 4.5 bn | 816.7 m | 5.3 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 11.8 bn | 11.6 bn | 11.0 bn | 9.7 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Investing cash flow | -5.3 bn | -4.3 bn | -5.2 bn | -4.6 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -7.9 bn | -7.2 bn | -4.7 bn | -6.4 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 1.4 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 18.4 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
31% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 4.74 – 6.46 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)4.74 – 6.46 (Mid 5.47)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -12.3% | 5 (vs peers) | 20% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -4.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 27% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 0.5x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.9x | 7 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 10.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet3/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial5/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
TELEFONICA SA (TEF.MC). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 35.1 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth -1.5%; net margin -12.3%; ROE -25.7%.
The estimated value range is 4.74–6.46 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 5.47 EUR, the price of 3.45 EUR leaves a potential of 58.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 36.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 10.1%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -12.3%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -4.2%
- Interest coverage: 0.5x
- Current ratio: 0.9x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Spain · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELE.MCEndesa SA | 46.9 bn | 21.4 | 26.4% | 10.5% | +0.5% | +43% / +134% |
| AENA.MCAena S.m.e. SA | 42.6 bn | 19.9 | 24.2% | 34.0% | +8.9% | +21% / +79% |
| AMS.MCAmadeus It Group Sociedad Anonima | 26.2 bn | 19.8 | 26.9% | 20.5% | +6.1% | −6% / −5% |
| ACS.MCAcs Actividades De Construccion Y Servicios, S.A. | 21.9 bn | 23.0 | 19.9% | 1.9% | +19.7% | +7% / +134% |
| TEF.MCTelefonica SA | 18.4 bn | — | -25.7% | -12.3% | −1.5% | −8% / −13% |
| ANA.MCAcciona SA | 11.7 bn | 14.5 | 16.9% | 4.0% | +5.5% | +24% / +66% |
| FCC.MCFomento De Construcciones Y Contratas S.A. | 5.0 bn | 30.3 | 5.3% | 1.7% | +6.9% | −8% / −14% |
| DIA.MCDistribuidora Internacional De Alimentacion SA | 2.7 bn | 20.6 | 165.6% | 2.2% | −2.7% | +51% / +380,733% |
| CMO.MCCementos Molins S.A. | 2.5 bn | 13.6 | 14.3% | 18.0% | −3.1% | +31% / unavailable |
| ENO.MCElecnor SA | 2.4 bn | 21.9 | 10.5% | 2.5% | +15.1% | −3% / +58% |
| ALM.MCAlmirall S.A. | 2.4 bn | 51.1 | 3.1% | 4.2% | +12.4% | −11% / +32% |
| FAE.MCFaes Farma SA | 1.5 bn | 19.3 | 10.8% | 13.0% | +23.7% | +3% / +57% |
| AEDAS.MCAedas Homes SA | 1.0 bn | 17.1 | 57.8% | 7.0% | −24.8% | +0% / +38% |
| EDR.MCEdreams Odigeo SA | 574.4 m | 11.5 | 21.0% | 7.8% | −0.4% | +40% / −24% |
| EAT.MCAmRest Holdings SE | 506.0 m | 31.4 | 4.3% | 0.6% | +0.1% | −34% / −61% |
| ADX.MCAudax Renovables S.A. | 468.5 m | 23.9 | 9.3% | 1.0% | −5.4% | −23% / −18% |
| ATRY.MCAtrys Health, S.A. | 200.4 m | — | -49.5% | -71.1% | +8.5% | −3% / −29% |
| ENER.MCEcoener, S.A. | 175.6 m | 32.2 | 4.2% | 6.4% | +3.6% | −34% / −6% |
| ADZ.MCAdolfo Dominguez SA | 62.9 m | 38.3 | 9.0% | 1.2% | +1.8% | +39% / +40% |
| DESA.MCDesarrollos Especiales De Sistemas De Anclaje S.A. | 44.8 m | 9.2 | 152.3% | 10.0% | +2.2% | +19% / unavailable |
| EZE.MCGrupo Ezentis SA | 29.0 m | — | — | -9.3% | +147.2% | −30% / −37% |
| CLEO.MCCompañia Levantina De Edificacion Y Obras Publicas SA | 17.3 m | 14.4 | 4.1% | 3.4% | +13.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AYC.MCAyco Grupo Inmobiliario, S.A. | 16.4 m | — | -33.8% | — | −100.0% | unavailable / unavailable |
| EBRO.MCEbro Foods, S.A. | 3.0 m | 0.0 | 10.0% | 7.7% | −4.0% | −0% / +19% |
| A3M.MCAtresmedia Corporacion De Medios De Comunicacion, S.A. | — | — | 7.9% | 6.9% | −2.7% | +13% / +60% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TEF.MC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Telefónica, S.A. is a telecommunications group operating in several countries, whose financing structure includes bonds and hybrid instruments. In 2025 the group recycled negative conversion differences of 1,476 million EUR into profit and loss, which makes exposure to Latin American currencies a relevant watch item. The company also closed a fibre agreement with Vodafone España.
SWOT
Strengths
- Diversified portfolio of operations across several countries and stakes in subsidiaries with consistent cash flows.
- Access to financing through bonds and hybrid instruments, with a maturity profile spread over several years.
- Ability to form infrastructure partnerships, such as the fibre venture with a direct competitor.
Weaknesses
- Significant exposure to emerging-market currencies, which has led to negative conversion differences recycled into results.
- Large financial debt that requires periodic refinancing and may limit investment flexibility.
- Substantial minority interests in key subsidiaries, which complicate full distribution of results to the parent's shareholders.
Opportunities
- Developing fibre networks through partnerships could lower investment costs and speed up coverage.
- Simplifying the portfolio through exits from smaller markets could concentrate resources on better-returning assets.
- If hybrid instrument financing remains accessible, the company could optimise its capital structure.
Threats
- Currency devaluations in the region could reduce results reported in euros.
- Competitive pressure and market consolidation could affect prices and margins.
- Regulatory requirements on spectrum and investment could raise operating costs.
Risks
- Currency risk in Latin Americahigh
Negative conversion differences remain a source of volatility in reported results, especially if local currencies devalue further.
- Debt and refinancingmedium
Total financial debt and near-term maturities require constant access to capital markets, and funding conditions could become more costly.
- Hybrid couponsmedium
Payment of hybrid coupons, even though it can be deferred, reduces cash available to shareholders and must be managed within the capital plan.
- Regulatory and spectrum riskmedium
Spectrum licence requirements and market regulation could impose unplanned investment or pricing restrictions.
- Cybersecurity riskhigh
Attacks on technical infrastructure could cause service interruptions, data losses and reputational damage.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the fibre partnership produces investment savings, the group could accelerate coverage and support revenue growth in European markets.
- Simplifying the portfolio through exits from difficult markets could reduce risk exposure and focus capital on core assets.
- Cash flows from large subsidiaries such as Telefônica Brasil could support debt obligations and hybrid instrument servicing.
What would break the thesis
- Currency devaluations in Latin America could keep reducing reported results even if local operations are stable.
- High debt and near-term maturities could leave the company vulnerable if capital markets tighten.
- Competition and price pressure could limit margin growth in the main markets.
What to watch
- Evolution of conversion differences and exposure to Argentina and other regional markets2026
- Results of Compañía Mayorista de Fibra and the pace of network expansion2026
- Refinancing schedule for bonds maturing in 2026 and 20272026
- Payment of hybrid coupons and any decision on early redemption of perpetual instrumentsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The Telefónica group provides fixed and mobile telecommunications, data and connectivity services. The 2025 consolidated annual report shows a portfolio of operations with majority and minority stakes, including Telefônica Brasil and Telefónica Deutschland. The legal structure includes subsidiaries with significant minority interests, which affects how results are attributed.
The company reorganised part of its activity through Compañía Mayorista de Fibra, a joint venture with Vodafone España that began operations on 1 March 2025 and sells an FTTH network to its partners. Telefónica holds 63% of the capital of this entity, with the rest held by Vodafone España.
On the financing side, the group uses bond issues, commercial paper and loans, as well as hybrid equity instruments that let the issuer defer coupon payments. In 2025 hybrid coupons net of tax of 266 million EUR were paid and recorded in accumulated earnings.
Segments
Telefónica Deutschland
Telefónica Deutschland generated net cash flow from operations of 2,290 million EUR in 2025, down from 2,774 million EUR in 2024. The company completed a tender offer for the subsidiary's shares in 2024, which reduced minority interests.
Latin American operations
Exits from some markets produced conversion differences recycled into profit and loss, notably on the sale of Telefónica Móviles Argentina, which contributed 1,136 million EUR. This shows the group's exposure to currency movements in the region.
Market context
The European and Latin American telecommunications markets are marked by consolidation, heavy investment in fibre and spectrum, and price pressure. The group's reports point to a shift toward infrastructure partnerships, such as the fibre joint venture with Vodafone España, as a response to these pressures.
Exposure to emerging-market currencies remains an important factor. The negative conversion differences recycled in 2025 show how much exits from markets with currency devaluation, such as Argentina, can affect reported results.
Trends
- Consolidation of fibre networkstailwind
The joint FTTH network with Vodafone España could lower investment costs if the model proves efficient. The company began operations in 2025 after obtaining regulatory approvals.
- Devaluation of emerging-market currenciesheadwind
Negative conversion differences recycled into profit show that currency devaluations can reduce reported results. If the trend continues in Latin American markets, pressure on reporting could persist.
- Hybrid instrument financingmixed
Perpetual subordinated bonds offer flexibility because coupon payment depends on the company's decision. This can support the capital structure, but the cumulative cost of coupons remains a burden.
- Regulation and spectrum investmentheadwind
Payments for financed spectrum licences have shaped funding flows. Regulatory requirements may call for additional investment, which could limit dividends or debt reduction.
Competitive position
Competition comes from mobile and fixed operators in each market, as well as new fibre players. The fibre partnership with Vodafone España shows the group seeking to share infrastructure costs with a direct competitor.
In Latin America competition includes regional and global operators, and market consolidation could change the pricing structure. Exits from smaller markets show the group concentrating its portfolio on assets it considers strategic.
- Vodafone
Partner in Compañía Mayorista de Fibra and a competitor in European telecommunications markets.
- Regional mobile operators in Latin America
Competitors in markets where the group sold or reduced its activity, with consequences for market share.
- Independent fibre and infrastructure operators
Players competing to build and sell access networks, including in markets the company entered through a partnership.
- European integrated operators
Companies with similar fixed and mobile portfolios that compete on pricing and network investment.
News & filings
In the press
- BCE selectează Nexi–Deutsche Telekom și Telefónica–Indra pentru conectivitatea euro digital, în pregătirea unei eventuale emiteriFinancial Intelligence (RO) · 01 Nov 2026 · RO
- Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefónica și Vodafone vor să lanseze împreună un rival pentru StarlinkEconomedia · 20 Oct 2026 · RO
- Giganţii europeni din telecom strâng rândurile: Orange, Vodafone, Deutsche Telekom şi Telefónica analizează o ofertă comună pentru frecvenţe satelitare în Europa. Miza: conectarea telefoanelor în zone fără semnalZiarul Financiar · 19 Oct 2026 · RO
- Telefónica Launches AI - Powered Observability Service for EnterprisesSurge — GDELT DOC · 25 Sept 2026 · RO
- Marii operatori telecom din Europa pregătesc un rival pentru Starlink. Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Vodafone și Telefónica ar putea intra împreună pe piața comunicațiilor prin satelitEconomedia · 08 Sept 2026 · RO
- Bloomberg: Orange, Vodafone, Deutsche Telekom şi Telefónica discută crearea unui rival european pentru Starlink. Negocierile vizează participarea comună la atribuirea de frecvenţe în UEZiarul Financiar · 08 Sept 2026 · RO
- Telefónica Weighs Ending Movistar Cycling Team SponsorshipBloomberg Markets · 12 Jun 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202520 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202520 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Telefónica, S.A. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.