olivLaw · European equity research
UCB UCB.BR
Belgium · Euronext Brussels · ISIN BE0003739530 · Vertical: Listed companies from Belgium
UCB is a biopharmaceutical company based in Belgium that develops and commercialises medicines for serious diseases, particularly in neurology and immunology. Its relevance now lies in growing pressure on drug pricing and access, along with regulatory restrictions the company must navigate.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, UCB (UCB.BR) stock was 290.20 EUR (+2.69% on the day), with market capitalisation 55.1 bn EUR, P/E 53.0 on diluted EPS of 5.48 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.47%, beta 0.56, 52-week range 197.90–290.20 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 79.6
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 173.81 – 314.71
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.83 · band width 57.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 223.24 / 242.50
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 20.12 / 15.90
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +43.5% | −0.6% | +44.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | +29.0% | −4.2% | +33.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +24.7% | +4.3% | +20.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | +21.6% | +7.5% | +14.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +33.9% | +9.9% | +24.0 pp | +6.3% |
| 3 years | +318.9% | +49.8% | +269.0 pp | −6.5% |
| 5 years | +177.8% | +42.8% | +135.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 35.1, median 40.0, max 44.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.3 bn | 6.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +17.1% |
| Net income | 343.0 m | 1.1 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +210.5% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.76 | 5.48 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +211.4% |
| net % | 6.5% | 17.3% |
| Free cash flow | 523.0 m | 1.0 bn |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- 1.6 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 10.0 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 17.3 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.36x
- ROE
- 11.2%
- ROA
- 6.5%
- FCF margin
- 16.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.3 bn | 6.2 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 3.5 bn | 4.4 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2025verified |
| Research & development | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2025verified |
| Operating income | 604.0 m | 1.3 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2025verified |
| Interest expense | 210.0 m | 200.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 441.0 m | 1.2 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2025verified |
| Income tax | 98.0 m | 98.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2025verified |
| Net income | 343.0 m | 1.1 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.76 | 5.48 | esef· 04 Mar 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.33 | 1.36 | esef· 04 Mar 2025verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 861.0 m | 1.6 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2025verified |
| Receivables | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2025verified |
| Inventories | 1.0 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2025verified |
| Current assets | 3.4 bn | 4.8 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 5.3 bn | 5.5 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 4.2 bn | 4.1 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2025verified |
| Total assets | 15.5 bn | 17.3 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | 2.3 bn | 3.0 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 2.6 bn | 3.5 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 6.6 bn | 7.3 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2025verified |
| Equity | 9.0 bn | 10.0 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 189.5 m | 189.8 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 761.0 m | 1.2 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2025verified |
| Capex | 238.0 m | 234.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | 523.0 m ≈ | 1.0 bn ≈ | esef· 04 Mar 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -440.0 m | 282.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -308.0 m | -818.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2025verified |
| Share repurchases | 40.0 m | 162.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 55.1 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
48% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 58.20 – 129.46 EUR.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E58.20 – 129.46 (Mid 84.30)24 companies used · median multiple 15.4x · quartiles 10.6x – 23.6xACKB.BR, AGS.BR, AZE.BR, BANI.BR, BAR.BR, BEKB.BR, BELYS.BR, BPOST.BR, CAMB.BR, CFEB.BR, COLR.BR, DECB.BR, DEME.BR, DIE.BR, ECONB.BR, ELI.BR, EVS.BR, FAGR.BR, FLOB.BR, FOU.BR, IBAB.BR, JEN.BR, KIN.BR, MELE.BR
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate18.50 – 25.22 (Mid 21.34)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 17.3% | 92 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 94.6% | 92 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 6.6x | 79 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.4x | 46 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 53.0x | 11 (vs peers) | 22% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 1.8% | 23 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.3% | 4 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet66/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality92/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial4/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation16/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
U C B (UCB.BR). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 6.2 bn EUR in 2024; YoY growth 17.1%; net margin 17.3%; ROE 11.2%.
The estimated value range is 58.20–129.46 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 84.30 EUR, the price of 290.20 EUR leaves a potential of -71.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -244.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 17.3%
- FCF conversion: 94.6%
- Interest coverage: 6.6x
What contradicts it
- P/E (TTM): 53.0x
- FCF yield: 1.8%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.3%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Belgium · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCB.BRU C B | 55.1 bn | 53.0 | 11.2% | 17.3% | +17.1% | +21% / +328% |
| ELI.BRElia Group | 11.9 bn | 23.3 | 9.6% | 13.6% | −2.0% | +28% / +34% |
| LOTB.BRLotus Bakeries | 11.4 bn | 66.4 | 20.9% | 12.7% | +10.0% | +82% / +76% |
| GBLB.BRGroupe Bruxelles Lambert - Groep Brussel Lambert | 10.6 bn | 82.4 | 0.8% | 2.1% | +1.0% | +6% / +9% |
| DIE.BRD'ieteren Group | 9.7 bn | 23.2 | — | 5.3% | −1.5% | +22% / +16% |
| ACKB.BRAckermans & Van Haaren | 8.8 bn | 22.2 | 8.4% | 7.6% | +18.6% | +22% / +77% |
| COLR.BRColruyt Group | 4.4 bn | 14.6 | 9.4% | 2.9% | +3.1% | +12% / −6% |
| DEME.BRDeme Group | 4.2 bn | 12.2 | 15.5% | 8.3% | +1.3% | +21% / +72% |
| AZE.BRAzelis Group | 2.9 bn | 16.1 | 6.6% | 4.3% | +1.5% | +29% / −42% |
| MELE.BRMelexis | 2.1 bn | 12.4 | 30.7% | 18.4% | −3.3% | −1% / −38% |
| BEKB.BRNV Bekaert SA | 2.1 bn | 30.7 | 3.1% | 1.8% | −6.4% | +10% / −5% |
| FAGR.BRFagron | 1.8 bn | 22.2 | 16.7% | 9.2% | +14.3% | +15% / +40% |
| KIN.BRKinepolis Group | 1.4 bn | 33.9 | 19.3% | 7.0% | −4.5% | +62% / +11% |
| JEN.BRJensen Group | 706.9 m | 17.2 | 15.1% | 9.1% | +13.3% | +28% / +111% |
| BAR.BRBarco | 563.5 m | 9.1 | 7.9% | 6.7% | −9.9% | −48% / −59% |
| IBAB.BRIon Beam Applications | 487.2 m | 39.5 | 10.7% | 2.1% | +24.5% | +48% / +52% |
| DECB.BRDeceuninck | 341.3 m | 24.6 | 4.3% | 1.7% | −4.5% | +8% / +8% |
| CAMB.BRCampine | 272.3 m | 12.2 | 28.6% | 6.1% | +13.4% | −12% / +161% |
| CFEB.BRAannemingsmaatschappij Cfe | 266.8 m | 11.1 | 9.9% | 2.0% | −5.3% | +22% / +48% |
| EVS.BREvs Broadcast Equipment | 245.9 m | 6.0 | 20.8% | 21.7% | +14.3% | −49% / −36% |
| BPOST.BRBpost | 229.8 m | 3.5 | 6.3% | 1.5% | −2.6% | −39% / −75% |
| ECONB.BREconocom Group | 210.7 m | 40.5 | 1.2% | 0.2% | +4.3% | −1% / −36% |
| IMMO.BRImmobel | 172.2 m | — | -7.4% | -25.2% | −32.8% | −24% / −36% |
| MONNI.BRKeyware Technologies | 171.0 m | 162.0 | 3.5% | 4.5% | −5.9% | −5% / −17% |
| HYSG.BRHybrid Software Group PLC | 121.3 m | — | -2.5% | -5.5% | +7.2% | −4% / +13% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for UCB.BR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 194.13 Total return -33% · Per year -33% | 341.65 Total return 18% · Per year 18% | 512.47 Total return 77% · Per year 77% |
| 3 years | 230.27 Total return -19% · Per year -7% | 451.83 Total return 58% · Per year 16% | 737.96 Total return 157% · Per year 37% |
| 5 years | 273.14 Total return -3% · Per year -1% | 597.54 Total return 110% · Per year 16% | 1,062.66 Total return 271% · Per year 30% |
- Exit P/E± 112.96
- Net margin± 79.07
- Annual revenue growth± 58.97
- Annual dilution± 6.64
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
UCB is a biopharmaceutical company based in Belgium that develops and commercialises medicines for serious diseases, particularly in neurology and immunology. Its relevance now lies in growing pressure on drug pricing and access, along with regulatory restrictions the company must navigate.
SWOT
Strengths
- A portfolio oriented toward innovation and conditions with unmet medical needs, enabling clinical differentiation.
- Solid governance, with independent directors and committees dedicated to audit and science.
- Integrated risk management, with response plans for identified enterprise risks.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on critical suppliers, which can expose the company to supply interruptions.
- Exposure to pricing pressure from government and private payers.
- Vulnerability to cyberattacks and incidents that can affect IT systems.
Opportunities
- Responsible adoption of artificial intelligence can optimise operations and development.
- Demonstrating clinical value can support market acceptance and negotiations with payers.
- Accelerated pathways for innovative therapies can shorten time to patients in certain conditions.
Threats
- Tightening regulations can raise compliance costs and change the business model.
- Geopolitical tensions and trade wars can disrupt markets and supply chains.
- Rising competition can reduce market share and pricing power.
Risks
- Pricing and access restrictionshigh
Restrictions on pricing and reimbursement can affect patient affordability and reduce sales and margins.
- Geopolitical riskshigh
International instability and market fragmentation can disrupt operations and affect costs.
- Changing regulationsmedium
New regulations can raise compliance costs and require changes to operations.
- Cybersecuritymedium
Attacks on the company or its third parties can lead to data breaches or IT system disruption.
- Product availabilitymedium
Dependence on critical suppliers can lead to shortages, with implications for patients and sales.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the innovative medicines portfolio demonstrates clear clinical value, the company could sustain market access even under pricing pressure.
- Rapid and compliant adoption of emerging technologies could reduce operating costs and speed up development.
- Solid governance and integrated risk management could help the company respond faster to changes in its environment.
What would break the thesis
- If payer pressure to reduce costs intensifies, margins could decline significantly.
- Disruptions at critical suppliers could limit product availability and affect reputation.
- Tightening regulations and geopolitical tensions could raise costs and reduce operational flexibility.
What to watch
- Evolution of pricing and reimbursement in key markets2025
- Status of clinical programmes and accelerated pathways for innovative therapies2025
- Impact of new regulations on compliance costs2025
- Management of supply risks and dependence on critical suppliers2025
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
UCB is a biopharmaceutical company headquartered in Belgium, focused on innovative medicines for patients with serious conditions. Its Executive Committee coordinates strategy, commercialisation, scientific development and the supply chain. The integrated annual report for 2024 describes the company's activity against a changing regulatory and market environment.
The company presents its strategy around three pillars: differentiated innovation, patient access to treatments and sustainability of operations. The report says UCB aims to deliver treatments that bring real value to patients and health systems while managing its enterprise risks.
The governance structure includes a Board of Directors with several independent directors and an Audit Committee, which provides oversight of risk management. The organisation embeds risk assessment in strategic planning at all levels.
Segments
Innovative medicines
The innovative medicines portfolio is the core of the business, with products developed for conditions that have unmet medical needs. The emphasis on differentiated innovation is cited as a response to pricing pressure.
Clinical and scientific development
Research and development activity includes clinical programmes and scientific collaborations, supported by a Scientific Committee within the Board. The report mentions accelerated pathways for innovative therapies, especially for conditions with high medical need.
Supply and manufacturing
Patient supply is managed through a dedicated function, and the report highlights dependence on critical suppliers. Product availability depends on the stability of these suppliers and on manufacturing capacity.
Market context
The pharmaceutical market in which UCB operates is subject to growing scrutiny of prices, reimbursement and access, from both government and private payers. The report notes this pressure could force companies to adjust pricing strategies and explore cost-cutting innovations.
Rising competition and geopolitical tensions add uncertainty to the market environment. The company indicates that international instability and regulatory fragmentation could affect markets and operating costs.
Trends
- Pricing and access pressureheadwind
Payers are seeking to reduce costs, and the focus on patient access and financial sustainability is increasing. This could limit margins but may favour companies with demonstrated clinical value.
- Artificial intelligence and emerging technologiesmixed
Adoption of artificial intelligence can optimise operations and development but brings regulatory, privacy and compliance risks. The report notes that rapid and compliant adoption could support strategic objectives.
- Tightening regulationsheadwind
A wave of new regulations without repeal of earlier ones can raise compliance costs and change how the business operates. Divergence between jurisdictions could alter the competitive landscape.
- Sustainability expectations and licence to operatemixed
Society and investors increasingly demand social and environmental responsibility. If objectives are not met, reputation and regulator attention could suffer, while sustainability efforts can strengthen trust.
Competitive position
The report points to rising competition in the pharmaceutical segments where UCB operates, without explicitly naming competitors in the analysed text. Competitive pressure adds to the challenges of pricing and regulation.
The company responds through investment in differentiated innovation and early engagement with payers, so that products remain competitive. The emphasis on clinical value is presented as the main means of differentiation.
- Innovative pharmaceutical companies
The report mentions rising competition without naming companies in the analysed source.
- Biosimilar and generic manufacturers
Pressure from cheaper alternatives appears implicitly in the discussion of pricing and access.
- Emerging biotechnology companies
New players in clinical research can change competitive dynamics, per the risk context described.
- Animal health and adjacent niche therapy companies
Competition in adjacent segments can influence resource allocation, as part of the overall market context.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202404 Mar 2025
- Annual report 202424 Sept 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2024-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / UCB · 31 Dec 2024
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.