olivLaw · US equity research
Aegon Ltd. AEG
Life Insurance · SIC 6311 · Vertical: Life Insurance (SIC 6311)
Aegon Ltd. is an international financial services group offering life insurance, retirement and asset management solutions, with Transamerica as its main source of value. It matters now because it is moving its head office and legal seat to the United States and plans to become a leading US life insurance and retirement group, while its operating result rose 15% in 2025.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Aegon Ltd. (AEG) stock was 8.58 USD (+4.51% on the day), with beta 0.88, 52-week range 6.79–9.53 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 57.8
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 8.07 – 8.46
- above the upper band · %B 1.31 · band width 4.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 8.67 / 8.30
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.09 / -0.14
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +1.1% | −1.1% | +2.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −9.7% | −0.5% | −9.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | +2.3% | +4.4% | −2.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +11.3% | +12.3% | −1.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | +14.9% | +13.5% | +1.3 pp | +1.1% |
| 3 years | +69.6% | +76.4% | −6.8 pp | +41.1% |
| 5 years | +71.9% | +63.7% | +8.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2017 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 33.0 bn | 28.2 bn | 21.3 bn | 21.1 bn | 21.3 bn | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | −2.0% | unavailable | −24.4% | −1.1% | +1.1% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 2.5 bn | 1.2 bn | -146.0 m | 2.0 bn | -570.0 m | -179.0 m | 688.0 m | 977.0 m |
| Net income YoY | +465.0% | unavailable | −111.8% | unavailable | −128.8% | unavailable | unavailable | +42.0% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.14 | 0.56 | -0.09 | 0.94 | -0.30 | -0.12 | 0.37 | 0.59 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +660.0% | unavailable | −116.1% | unavailable | −131.9% | unavailable | unavailable | +59.5% |
| net % | 7.5% | 4.4% | -0.7% | 9.4% | -2.7% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | 481.0 m | 7.2 bn | -2.9 bn | -1.9 bn | 2.6 bn | 799.0 m | 711.0 m | 393.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 2.7 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 9.5 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 317.2 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 10.4%
- ROA
- 0.3%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax income | -364.0 m | -2.4 bn | -25.0 m | -391.0 m | 660.0 m | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | -146.0 m | 2.0 bn | -570.0 m | -179.0 m | 688.0 m | 977.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.09 | 0.94 | -0.30 | -0.12 | 0.37 | 0.59 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 8.4 bn | 6.9 bn | 8.5 bn | 4.1 bn | 3.5 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 443.8 bn | 468.3 bn | 380.7 bn | 301.6 bn | 327.4 bn | 317.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 950.0 m | 824.0 m | 1.2 bn | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Mar 2023verified |
| Long-term debt | 7.6 bn | 8.8 bn | 2.9 bn | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Mar 2023verified |
| Total liabilities | 419.2 bn | 441.9 bn | 369.8 bn | 292.0 bn | 318.1 bn | 307.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 24.7 bn | 13.6 bn | 10.9 bn | 9.6 bn | 9.3 bn | 9.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividends paid | 63.0 m | 121.0 m | 167.0 m | 494.0 m | 521.0 m | 596.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | — | 1.1 bn | 925.0 m | 549.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Market and valuation
Insurance
32 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 3 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 34.0% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
34% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 2.12 – 9.86 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- Residual incomeunavailable · input data missing
- Justified P/Bunavailable · input data missing
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E2.12 – 9.86 (Mid 6.38)17 companies used · median multiple 10.8x · quartiles 3.6x – 16.7xAAME, ANG-PD, ATHS, BHF, CIA, CRBD, FG, GL, GNW, JXN, LNC, MET, PFH, PRI, PUK, RGA, VOYA
- Peers: P/Bunavailable · input data missing
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 34.0% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE · Quality | 10.5% | 37 (vs peers) | 53% |
| Loss ratio · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -8.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 24% |
| ROA · Balance sheet | 0.3% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 24% |
| P/B · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Dividend yield · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet0/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial37/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
AEGON LTD. (AEG). Latest full fiscal year: 2022; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: YoY growth 1.1%; ROE 10.5%.
The estimated value range is 2.12–9.86 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 34.0% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -8.9%
- ROA: 0.3%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Loss ratio, EPS CAGR 3Y, P/B, P/E (TTM), Dividend yield, Payout ratio (EPS).
Versus the vertical median
Life Insurance (SIC 6311) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 19 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUKPrudential PLC | 67.2 bn | 17.2 | 21.2% | 34.6% | +7.0% | −10% / +20% |
| METMetLife, Inc. | 65.4 bn | 19.5 | 13.2% | 4.6% | +8.6% | +34% / +62% |
| RGAReinsurance Group Of America, Incorporated | 17.4 bn | 11.7 | 11.7% | 5.8% | +7.2% | +40% / +64% |
| GLGlobe Life Inc. | 12.2 bn | 10.8 | 19.3% | 18.9% | +3.7% | +20% / +31% |
| VOYAVoya Financial, Inc. | 9.3 bn | 16.7 | 14.3% | 7.8% | +1.7% | +49% / +46% |
| CRBDCorebridge Financial, Inc. | 9.3 bn | 4.6 | 21.7% | 10.6% | −1.2% | −11% / unavailable |
| JXNJackson Financial Inc. | 9.1 bn | 11.1 | 9.5% | 13.4% | +104.3% | +40% / +188% |
| PRIPrimerica, Inc. | 8.8 bn | 11.4 | 33.0% | 23.2% | +6.6% | +11% / +36% |
| LNCLincoln National Corp | 8.0 bn | 3.6 | 22.6% | 12.2% | −1.2% | +1% / +75% |
| PFHPrudential Financial, Inc. | 5.3 bn | 1.4 | 12.6% | 6.3% | −13.7% | −11% / −20% |
| GNWGenworth Financial, Inc. | 3.5 bn | 17.5 | 2.4% | 2.9% | +0.1% | +6% / +56% |
| FGF&G Annuities & Life, Inc. | 2.9 bn | 7.4 | 9.2% | 6.9% | −0.2% | −32% / −46% |
| BHFBrighthouse Financial, Inc. | 2.4 bn | 3.3 | 13.6% | 12.5% | +43.2% | −35% / −18% |
| CIACitizens, Inc. | 209.2 m | 18.0 | 5.0% | 4.5% | +4.3% | −31% / +25% |
| AAMEAtlantic American Corporation | 24.3 m | 4.3 | 5.2% | 2.9% | +11.9% | −51% / −39% |
| ATHSAthene Holding Ltd | 4.7 m | 0.0 | 4.5% | 2.9% | +24.1% | −8% / unavailable |
| ANG-PDAmerican National Group Inc. | 215.5 k | 0.0 | 8.4% | 12.6% | −0.4% | −15% / unavailable |
| AEGAegon Ltd. | — | — | 10.5% | — | +1.1% | +15% / +70% |
| SLFSun Life Financial Inc | — | — | 14.2% | 8.5% | +8.0% | +39% / +62% |
| MFCManulife Financial Corporation | — | — | 11.0% | 68.5% | +7.1% | +31% / +135% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for AEG from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 26 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (15 Oct 2026), 6-K (13 Oct 2026), 6-K (08 Oct 2026).
In brief
Aegon Ltd. is an international financial services group offering life insurance, retirement and asset management solutions, with Transamerica as its main source of value. It matters now because it is moving its head office and legal seat to the United States and plans to become a leading US life insurance and retirement group, while its operating result rose 15% in 2025 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Transamerica gives the group a solid base in the largest insurance market in the world, and the WFG network of licensed agents supports distribution 1.
- The operating result rose last year and operating capital generation exceeded target, showing the ability to generate cash 1.
- The group has a diversified structure of joint ventures and partnerships, with access to growth markets in Asia and Latin America 1.
Weaknesses
- The UK business does not yet hold a dominant position, and management is reviewing options including a possible sale 1.
- Simultaneous changes to the seat, the accounting standard and the name could require significant operational resources 1.
- Many activities run through joint ventures, which can limit direct control over decisions and cash flows 1.
Opportunities
- If the US strategy succeeds, the group could become an important American life insurance and retirement group 1.
- Growing third-party revenues at Aegon AM could diversify income sources and improve efficiency 1.
- Access to US indices could widen the investor base if the relocation is completed successfully 1.
Risks
- Relocation execution riskmedium
The relocation and renaming depend on shareholder approval and complex regulatory steps, and delays could postpone the transition 1.
- Accounting transition riskmedium
The move to US GAAP could change how results are presented and could create comparability difficulties during the transition period 1.
- Market and interest rate riskhigh
Changes in interest rates and capital markets can affect investment returns and asset values, and the group is exposed to significant risks in this area 1.
- UK divestment risklow
A possible sale of Aegon UK could end on terms less favourable than management expects, which could affect shareholder value 1.
- US market concentration riskmedium
If Transamerica remains the main driver of value, the group's performance could depend heavily on US conditions 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the US strategy materialises, the group could benefit from a large market, an extensive distribution network and a clear focus on life insurance and retirement 1.
- Cash generation and a rising operating result could support capital returns to shareholders if the trend holds 1.
- Simplifying the portfolio through reinsurance and asset sales could reduce volatility and improve the risk profile 1.
What would break the thesis
- If interest rates and inflation stay high, demand for retirement products could fall and results could be weaker than expected 1.
- The relocation and the change of accounting standard could create extra costs and complications before delivering clear benefits 1.
- Reliance on joint ventures and local partners could limit control over growth in international markets 1.
What to watch
- Shareholder approval of the head office relocation at an extraordinary general meetingQ4 2026
- First results reported under US GAAP2027
- Decision on a possible sale of Aegon UKnext 10-K
- Completion of the EUR 400 million share buyback programme for 20262026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 26 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (15 Oct 2026), 6-K (13 Oct 2026), 6-K (08 Oct 2026).
The business
Aegon is a financial services group headquartered in Schiphol, the Netherlands, and domiciled in Hamilton, Bermuda, offering life insurance, retirement and asset management solutions 1. It earns revenue and earnings from insurance premiums, investment returns, fees and commissions 1. Transamerica represents approximately 70% of operations and is the largest part of the group 1.
The group has fully owned businesses in the Americas and the United Kingdom, a global asset manager, and a life insurer serving affluent clients mainly in Asia 1. It also has joint ventures in Spain and Portugal, China and Brazil, and a strategic shareholding in the Dutch insurer a.s.r. 1.
In 2025 the group announced it will relocate its head office and legal seat to the United States, aims to become a domestic issuer there by January 1, 2028, and plans to report under US GAAP from full-year 2027 results 1. It became a non-resident company under Dutch law on December 31, 2025 1.
Segments
Americas (Transamerica, WFG)
Transamerica is a leading provider of life insurance, retirement and investment solutions in the United States, organized in four segments: Distribution, Savings & Investments, Protection Solutions and Financial Assets 1. The affiliated World Financial Group network has over 95,000 licensed agents in the United States and Canada 1.
United Kingdom and International
In the United Kingdom Aegon aims to become a leading digital savings and retirement platform, and the group is reviewing its options for this business, including a potential divestment 1. International activities include joint ventures in Spain and Portugal, China and Brazil, and a Transamerica Life Bermuda business serving clients from Hong Kong and Singapore 1.
Market context
The group focuses on the life insurance, pension and investment market in the United States, which management describes as the world's largest and most dynamic insurance market 1. Revenues depend on premiums, investment returns and fees, so changes in interest rates and capital markets matter 1.
Management described a challenging 2025 marked by higher inflation, elevated interest rates and global uncertainty, which could influence demand for savings and retirement products 1. Middle-income families and small and medium-sized businesses remain the core target of the US strategy 1.
Trends
- Relocation to the United Statesmixed
The decision to move the head office and legal seat to the US aims to align the company with where it generates most of its value and could broaden its investor base through US-focused indices 1. The process requires time and operational effort, with shareholder approval expected at an extraordinary general meeting 1.
- Transition to US GAAPmixed
The group intends to adopt US GAAP, which could improve comparability with US peers but involves a complex transition 1. During the transition it will publish half-year reporting rather than trading updates 1.
- Consolidation and asset salestailwind
In 2025 Aegon reduced its a.s.r. stake and announced a review of Aegon UK, while a reinsurance transaction could reduce capital employed in legacy Financial Assets 1. If completed, these transactions could simplify the portfolio and release capital 1.
- Macroeconomic pressuremixed
Higher inflation and elevated interest rates in 2025 created a difficult environment, and global uncertainty can affect sales and returns 1. If rates stay high they could support investment income but could also reduce demand for some products 1.
Competitive position
In the United States Aegon competes with other large life insurance and retirement providers that offer similar products through their own distribution or independent agents 1. The group's edge lies in its WFG network and its focus on middle-income clients and small and medium-sized businesses 1.
Outside the US, competition comes from strong local insurers in Brazil, Spain, China and Asia, where Aegon mainly operates through joint ventures with local partners 1. Bank and cooperative partnerships could be an advantage but also a dependence 1.
- Major US life and retirement insurers
Direct competitors in the US life and retirement segment that the group's US market context implies 1.
- Local insurers in Brazil
Competitors in Brazil, where MAG Seguros is described as the country's third-largest independent life insurer 1.
- Bank-linked insurers in Spain and Portugal
The bank partnership in Spain shows competition for distribution through local banking channels 1.
- Global asset managers
Aegon AM competes with global managers in fixed income, equity and alternative investment funds 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Primul film din seria Game Of Thrones, „Aegon’s Conquest”, va ajunge în cinematografe în iunie 2029 / Acțiunea are loc cu secole înainte de evenimentele din serialG4Media · 03 Oct 2026 · RO
- Aegon (AEG) Expanded its Buyback After a Capital Beat. Is the Transamerica Pivot Working?Yahoo Finance — News · 25 Aug 2026 · EN
- Aegon Sticks With Winning Steepener Bet Despite US Bond BuyingBloomberg Markets · 20 Aug 2026 · EN
- Gilt Market Is Giving Burnham a Pass For Now, Says Aegon’s LynchBloomberg Markets · 01 Jul 2026 · EN
- Banca Mondială achiziționează, prin IFC, 10% din Carpathia Pensii, fostul Aegon Pensii, fond cu contribuție obligatorieCursDeGuvernare.ro · 10 May 2026 · RO
The latest news item in our archive is from 03 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 15 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)15 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)15 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)15 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)13 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)13 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)08 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)01 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)26 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)26 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)24 Aug 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Aegon Ltd. · 26 Mar 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.